400NL riv bluff

Villain is an ok 16/13 4%3bet. He can call AK and big pairs pre here though. I'm 13/10


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Button ($472.90)
SB ($431.20)
BB ($200)
Hero (UTG) ($400.70)
UTG+1 ($400)
MP1 ($400)
MP2 ($416.50)
MP3 ($179.15)
CO ($544.30)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9
Hero bets $12, 6 folds, SB calls $10, 1 fold

Flop: ($28) 10, A, 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20, SB calls $20

Turn: ($68) 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($68) J (2 players)
SB bets $40, Hero raises to $156

i don't like it, he was waiting to stack-a-donk on the turn but you didn't bet so now he's chasing value. You're repping KQ thin but, meh, he's likely going to call anyway cos that's not big in your UTG range and nor is AJ. There's not much else that you pot control the turn with and then wake up on the river.

My problem with this hand is that his vbet/folding range is probably going to be really thin - AK/KK, and he can still have every combination of sets himself except 22 probably. If you think he's capable of laying down 77/TT then I like it, but a lot of regs are stubborn with sets even though they only beat air. If he's capable of seeing that you have JJ/KQ/air and your image is clean then I like it, but it seems pretty dodgy.

i like it versus a good player - against an ok or bad player its spew.

This seems fine to me vs what seems to be a solid player.

kind of a terrible card to do it on no?

Prefer it much more on a K and Q, in that order.

You also don't need to make it that big if you plan on getting him off a one pair hand. Not like AJ is folding anyway.

Hmm...I guess we're just hoping he folds AK/AQ here. Is there any chance he folds AJ? Prob not and 10s and 7s are in his range as well. It is full ring though so...

My inital thought is that "we can have 89/kq more than him blah blah" but on second thought we're probably getting payed off with those hands so maybe it's not as good as i thought.

We probably barrel 78, so we only rep AJ,JJ,QK

But I'm sayin Q and K are better because I assume he'd 3bet AK for sure and sometimes AQ, whereas he prob wouldn't 3bet AJ.

It probably still works a decent amount though with your image...

I don't think you'd do this if you didn't think he was capable of laying down a better hand, so that said, I like it.

No one really 3bets from the blinds vs UTG with AK and AQ except against the crazies

Ohhh you're UTG. missed the 6 folds in the HH. My bad, the whole analysis is trash then lol

We still rep little, but at least now he can have AQ and AK that he can fold. Like it more, just size it smaller.