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400nl - no value - agree/disagree?

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  1. #1

    Default 400nl - no value - agree/disagree?

    I believe there is no value in betting this river, though I am certainly open to someone disagreeing.

    If you disagree, provide me with an analysis other than 'omg 2 pair in a 3bet pot pair bet'


    villain who called squeeze is like 38/10. he seems like your standard 'weak tight live fish' who decided to load up a few hundred bucks and play some pokers. his fold to cbet is 75% and he has yet to go to showdown. he has also shown no signs of spazzing out or aggression period.

    river looks like a check:

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    MP1 ($549.05)
    MP2 ($400)
    MP3 ($533.50)
    CO ($563.25)
    Hero (Button) ($497)
    SB ($394)
    BB ($420.40)
    UTG ($1161)
    UTG+1 ($442.40)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with K, 6
    2 folds, MP1 bets $12, 1 fold, MP3 calls $12, 1 fold, Hero raises to $48, 3 folds, MP3 calls $36

    Flop: ($114) 6, 5, Q (2 players)
    MP3 checks, Hero bets $72, MP3 calls $72

    Turn: ($258) A (2 players)
    MP3 checks, Hero checks

    River: ($258) K (2 players)
    MP3 checks, Hero checks
  2. #2
    wat
    [11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
  3. #3
    for value betting to be +EV on the river we need to beat 50% of his calling range assuming he never bluff raises which is probably a fair assumption.

    <m2m> KQ/AQ = 15
    <m2m> he could have like
    <m2m> any Ax with a spade
    <m2m> A2,A3,A4,A7,A8,A9,AT,AJ for 8 combos we can get value from
    <m2m> we could maybe say he donks KQ/AQ
    <m2m> 50% of the time and c/c or c/r 50%
    <m2m> which would make value bettting sliiightly +EV
    <m2m> tho really thin operating on that assumption

    follow?
  4. #4
    bikes's Avatar
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    wow wtf. bet the turn and certainly bet the river.
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro View Post
    If you disagree, provide me with an analysis other than 'omg 2 pair in a 3bet pot pair bet'
    .
  6. #6
    Yeah, I think we probably have enough money in the pot for this action. On the other hand, if he's not likely to raise you AND if he's not likely to let go of whatever hand he keeps passively calling with that we beat, a bet might not be bad either.

    I see players like this taking a line with really strong hands and really mediocre hands like JJ wanting to get to SD plus draws. So, I don't think it's a big deal either way checking or betting. It's really about knowing your villain.
    - Jason

  7. #7
    how stupid of me not to consider gay betting the river
  8. #8
    m, can you put him on a range that would deter us from wanting to bet the fuck out of this river?

    ok maybe not bet the fuck out of it, but gosh...
    Last edited by speedcake; 02-28-2010 at 09:59 PM.
    your banner burned here
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by speedcake View Post
    m, can you put him on a range that would deter us from wanting to bet the fuck out of this river?

    ok maybe not bet the fuck out of it, but gosh...
    i just gave one scroll up

    with my range i think he can call Qx and maybe even JJ if I just bet like 25-33% pot which would make a value bet +EV
    Last edited by Micro2Macro; 03-01-2010 at 01:03 AM.
  10. #10
    elipsesjeff's Avatar
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    I think we can vbet here since he's bad, also wouldn't mind a 2barrel.

    M2M: turn on Private message please and ship me one.


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  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by elipsesjeff View Post
    I think we can vbet here since he's bad, also wouldn't mind a 2barrel.

    M2M: turn on Private message please and ship me one.
    Somebody is about to get recruited.
    [11:11] <+bikes> bitches love your face
  12. #12
    Betting like $60 is ok

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