400 NL JJ Blind Battle vs Reg

Some history: I've flatted his EP raise with KK and showed it down, I've also cold called a raise and reraise with AA (also in blind battle) but didn't show it down vs him.

I'm probably 20/15 ish or so with 3bet % of 7 so far on Tilt (super small sample tho)

Villain's Stats: 15/12/2.8, att to steal 25% and Fold to 3bet 73%

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (8 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG+1 ($363.70)
MP1 ($400)
MP2 ($1013.10)
CO ($800)
Button ($887)
Hero ($506)
BB ($456.20)
UTG ($866.10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, J. UTG posts a blind of $4.
4 folds, Button raises to $14, Hero raises to $48, 1 fold, Button raises to $139, Hero calls $79.

Flop: ($270) 8, 6, K (3 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: ($270) 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $175, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $270

Smells like Queens to me.

I don't understand why you'd ever want to flat call a 4-bet out of position with JJ, not with 100 BB stacks anyway. Were you trapping him for a c-bet? I don't think your hand is quite strong enough for that, just go all-in now.

Looks to me like he had AK or maybe 4-bet light with Kx and your call of the 4-bet scared him, but when you checked again he put you on what you had and tried to value bet.

yeah prolly make a decision preflop but as played it looks good. Full ringers will check back that flop all day with AK/QQ

Originally Posted by elipsesjeff

Villain's Stats: 15/12/2.8, att to steal 25% and Fold to 3bet 73%

Not the sort of guy I'm loving JJ with here.

For the sake of round numbers lets say he raises the button with a nitty range of his top 25% of hands, then folds 80% of the time when you 3-ball him.

647,250,912 games 0.031 secs 20,879,061,677 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.102% 51.12% 00.98% 330859932 6370050.00 { TT+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 47.898% 46.91% 00.98% 303650880 6370050.00 { JJ }

In reality, he's going to flat some of these so his 4-bet range is even tighter with a rare 65s bluff in there.

So there is like $100ish called in the pot, $100 to go with another $300ish behind and we're at best flipping coins. HOWEVER, if we just stuck it in, he's going to fold his worst hands (making a mistake with exactly AQ) and call with the better hands.

This isn't the kind of spot that makes us money playing the unlimited hold'them. We really want to be pushing edges or making profitable bluffs for big money.

So after digesting this, fuck everyone and totally re-think your approach to spots like this against the TAggfish. I don't know FTP full ring meta-game and I'm not going to do any more of your homework for you.

Thanks for the responses.

Originally Posted by Mcatdog

I don't understand why you'd ever want to flat call a 4-bet out of position with JJ, not with 100 BB stacks anyway. Were you trapping him for a c-bet? I don't think your hand is quite strong enough for that, just go all-in now.

Looks to me like he had AK or maybe 4-bet light with Kx and your call of the 4-bet scared him, but when you checked again he put you on what you had and tried to value bet.

Well, I wasn't planning on him 4betting; if he shoves I probably call. I hate 3 bet/folding JJ in this spot and I also dislike 5betting for reasons fnord mentioned. I wasn't necessarily trapping but I'd feel more comfortable getting it in on a T-high flop than anything.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Not the sort of guy I'm loving JJ with here.

Exactly what I was thinking. That said, I'm wondering what the correct play is here; 5 betting allin seems like too easy an answer. But if it really is the correct way to play it then OK. At what point does it make it an obvious all in/fold here? 15%/7% PFR?

I also feel our opponents are checking back 100% of flops though once that king hits, unless he does have AQ.