100NL - Easy or not?

Hi everyone!

It's my first post here. Would appreciate a bit of help.

Villain is 23/13 (1k hands). 37% aggression. c-bets 92%. c/r TURN 8%.
My image was TAG.
No relevant history between the 2 of us.


No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($101.50)
Hero (CO) ($115.85)
Button ($63)
SB ($41.10)
BB ($99.55)
UTG ($226)
UTG+1 ($101)
MP1 ($126.20)
MP2 ($110.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9d, 9h
2 folds, MP1 bets $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $3, 3 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 9c, 6s, 2c (2 players)
MP1 bets $4, Hero raises $13, MP1 calls $9

Turn: ($33.50) 5c (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $21, MP1 raises $72.65, Hero ???

Considering his c/r as a c/jam we need 33% equity to call.
Using pokerstove:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

484 games 0.005 secs 96,800 games/sec

Board: 9c 6s 2c 5c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.438% 32.44% 00.00% 157 0.00 { 9d9h }
Hand 1: 67.562% 67.56% 00.00% 327 0.00 { AcAd, AcAh, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, QcJc, 8c7c }

What to do?

Thanks!

i go broke here. He`s gona have enough weaker hands (2pairs/sets/overpairs) often enough to make it for the times he`ll have a straight (in which case you still have 20% equity to win 230bb`s)

Pretty hard choise. I guess Ill go allin. Thats Not easy I give you that.

i fold. he'd have to be pretty stupid to have anything but a straight or flush here

Originally Posted by bikes

i fold. he'd have to be pretty stupid to have anything but a straight or flush here

The thing us that villain is kind of aggro and he's not the standard TAG. What if turn was 3c, do you still fold?

Plus adding 66 to villains range gives us more equity ...

man you can add a whole lot to the villians range doesn't mean he has them.

like i said earlier he'd have to be pretty bad to have anything but a flush or straight here and that includes AcAx

Ok, thanks!

c/r turn % is completely irrelevant for that spot cos that's mostly for spots where he goes cb, c/r or cc c/r - which is kind of popular with sets nowadays, and doesn't tell you anything about this hand.

What does he think about you? What's your range for calling pre / raising this flop?

What do you mean by 'would you still fold if the turn is a 3c'? If anything it's more of a fold.

Originally Posted by oskar

What does he think about you? What's your range for calling pre / raising this flop?

As I mentioned, there was no particular history between the 2 of us. So he has to put me on maybe TT-JJ, sets, Axc and maybe the occasional bluff.

Originally Posted by oskar

What do you mean by 'would you still fold if the turn is a 3c'? If anything it's more of a fold.

Well with the 3c on the turn, villain doesn't beat us with any straight anymore, unless he called with 45 (for which he needs to be very bad).

You need to pay more attention to stuff in general. Saying you have onethousand hands on him but don't have any particular history is pretty absurd.

It doesn't matter which club other than the Ac cos he's not calling a flop raise oop with a naked oesd on a 2-tone board. It might matter if he thinks we raise 78 without clubs.

Anyways... still curious what your range for callin pre / raising the flop is cos I'll just assume right now that he was paying attention to you at least a little bit and that he has some idea of what you're doing.

You are right here, have to pay more attention ...

Thanks!

I'm not a full ring player, but seems like a pretty standard call here.

Especially if you account for the fact that a lot of villains FD's will be over cards to the board that will 3bet over your raise some % of the time. on top of the fact that some of villain's low FD's will just c/c turn some % of the time.

Originally Posted by downunder

Villain is 23/13 (1k hands). 37% aggression. c-bets 92%. c/r TURN 8%.
My image was TAG.
No relevant history between the 2 of us.

I think I find a fold here, but it's really close. His stats tell me that he is the type of player that is limping into a lot of pots, trying to hit the flop and only getting really aggressive when he nails it. 23/13 sounds pretty fishy, so I'm not sure if your image is that important against him. His line makes me think he's got the flush almost always. The problem is if you're behind, you're not that far behind and if he is kind of a spazz and you're ahead, you're probably way ahead.

I think if you ran this situation a bunch of times against his range you'd probably only be winning or losing marginally regardless of folding or getting it in, but I think folding is a little better.

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lol jesus christ don`t fold. dunno how any of you think this is close.

also `TAG` isn`t an image

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

also `TAG` isn`t an image

You're right, it's a state of mind

I don't know what's going on in this thread, but this is a bet/call