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$50 NLHE Full Ring,flop set,call or fold the river ?

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  1. #1

    Default $50 NLHE Full Ring,flop set,call or fold the river ?

    Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 33/22/4

    122 hands , he is a total fish that looks like call all bets to hit that draw.Possibly could have had 9,10 but theres more flush combos in his range

    No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) -
    BB ($95.23)
    UTG ($50)
    UTG+1 ($50)
    Hero (MP1) ($50)
    MP2 ($23.31)
    MP3 ($86.38)
    CO ($42.12)
    Button ($49.35)
    SB ($80.44)
    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8s , 8h
    2 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 4 folds, SB calls $1.25, 1 fold
    Flop: ($3.50) 8c , Jc , 4h (2 players)
    SB bets $1.75, Hero raises $7, SB calls $5.25
    Turn: ($17.50) 2s (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB calls $15
    River: ($47.50) 3c (2 players)
    SB bets $35.75, Hero ?
    Total pot: $47.50
  2. #2
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    This river lead ship is polarized.

    Value hands include: flushes
    Bluffs include: QTxx, 9Txx, T7xx - two of which are gutterballs, so not likely.

    I think this is a sad panda fold unless you have seen villain do something like this in the past with less.
  3. #3
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    56xx is a possibility for value, actually... G ball turned double rivered straight.
  4. #4
    BankItDrew's Avatar
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    Sad to see this section of FTR dead

    Everything started here for me.
  5. #5
    griffey24's Avatar
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    I wouldn't blame a stubborn call, but fish just have sooooo many suited hands seeing the flop (and getting to the river) that so many flushes are possible.

    It's probably a fold, but in game I probably look at his 4 AF and hit call.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
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  6. #6
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    I think this is a bad river call most of us make.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  7. #7
    Eric's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I think this is a bad river call most of us make.
    I hear you. Sometimes I just overbet all-in on the turn, especially against a fish like this.
  8. #8
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eric View Post
    I hear you. Sometimes I just overbet all-in on the turn, especially against a fish like this.
    Much depends on notes and reads here. Hero seems to think villain will call his draws at any price, so the turn seems like a good time to put that read to the test. That said, I really don't want to see villain fold, and would be annoyed with my bet if that's what he did, so I'm only inclined to make overbets when I have a set if I have reads villain is making bad calls.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #9
    Eric's Avatar
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    This was on my mind last night.


    Some possibilities:
    1. He has us beat with a flush (likely), a straight (less likely), or a higher set of jacks (almost never).
    2. He is over-playing a loser like 2 pairs or even top pair.
    3. He can only win by bluffing.
    4. He is betting another loser for some reason.


    If #2 through #4 are 5% to 15% each then #1 is 55% to 85%.


    If the above isn't too far off then we're getting between 5.5:4.5 and 8.5:1.5, probably closer to the latter.


    Having started with $50, we have $27.50 left. The pot has $47.50 from the turn plus another $27.50 from his all-in river bet that has us covered.


    As such, the pot odds are 75:27.5 which is between 2.5:1 and 3:1.


    We're probably not getting the pot odds we need but we sometimes make the call anyhow.
  10. #10
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    I don't see #3 being the case here. We have 122 hands on villain; if he's the type to overbet shove scare rivers as a bluff, we'd surely know by now. Literally the only hand I can see doing this as a bluff is T9.

    I'd say JJ/44 is in his range somewhere in the region of never. I'd say this isn't ever top pair, because if he overplays it at river to this extent, I don't see why he hasn't raised us earlier. I'd also assume the only made straight draws he has are also flush draws, ie A5cc. I guess he could float Ac5, but it doesn't really matter, it's still beating us.

    I think the only hands he has that we beat are T9 (rarely) and 33 (even rarer). I don't take 33 out of his range because I've seen people chasing with it (and getting there) twice in the last week.

    This is quite simply nearly always a flush, I'd put it at >90%.

    That said, it's an incredibly difficult fold, not one that I think I make very often because I'm a fish with a set.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  11. #11
    In this spot against a fish with that line I fold close to 100% and not worry about fish exploiting that tendency. I might call if lets say in the last orbit or so he showed any reason he might spazz because he really wants to win a pot. Most times that is not the case. I'd fold and wait for a better more clear spot to take his stack.

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