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You Can't Stump the Trump

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  1. #1
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Default You Can't Stump the Trump

    How is Donald Trump less qualified than Barack Obama's community organizer ass was to be President of the United States?
  2. #2
    Renton's Avatar
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    Well he's just a buffoon. I'm a big fan of the idea of a businessman president but it seems like all of the businessmen that want to be president tend to be tactless buffoons (Trump), mormon robots (Romney), or simpleton pizza franchisers (CAIN CAIN CAIN CAIN).

    Obama sucks in a lot of ways but you've got to hand it to him that he's presidential, and he's done a lot of good as simply being a non-embarrassment abroad (contrast with GWB). He probably would have been a fine secretary of state.
  3. #3
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    Well he's just a buffoon. I'm a big fan of the idea of a businessman president but it seems like all of the businessmen that want to be president tend to be tactless buffoons (Trump), mormon robots (Romney), or simpleton pizza franchisers (CAIN CAIN CAIN CAIN).

    Obama sucks in a lot of ways but you've got to hand it to him that he's presidential, and he's done a lot of good as simply being a non-embarrassment abroad (contrast with GWB). He probably would have been a fine secretary of state.
    Obama has been an embarrassment from day one. Can you say Nobel Peace Prize?

    If Trump is such a buffoon, why do his poll numbers keep going up higher and higher?
  4. #4
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    If Obama is so unqualified, how come he got a nobel peace prize? Checkmate republicans.
  5. #5
    I mean, Trump is indisputably a buffoon. His brand is built on him being a buffoon.

    I was at the Miss Universe pageant this year and the entire production was sort of a joke. You gotta admire his swag and all but come on. He comes in on the red carpet with one of the rich fish who was on HSP, Phil Ruffin ("King Salmon") and he says, "NOBODY DOES IT LIKE TRUMP! THIS IS LIKE THE ACADEMY AWARDS HERE!"

    I mean, the biggest celebrity there was Nick Jonas, I'm not even sure who the 2nd biggest star would be. Yeah totally like the Academy Awards.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  6. #6
    If qualifications mean the ability to learn and the ability to withstand pressure, one of the most decorated surgeons in the country's history beats the pants off everybody else in the field.

    I'm unconvinced other sorts of qualifications are even relevant. It doesn't matter how well a politician understands how to get bills passed if he passes the wrong bills. Qualifications should be about who is most capable of doing the right thing. A hard thing to assess, I know.
  7. #7
    JKDS's Avatar
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    Naw, being a senator or a governor matters a ton. Being a senator or someone in the office of the POTUS moreso than a governor though. The type of experience you gain from working in that environment and developing relationships with people currently working there is clearly invaluable.

    But it seems like candidates tote this as the only reason theyre qualified, and thats not enough. You're running for what is (was?) the most powerful position in the world, you gotta be able to say more than just "well, I was a senator and I think I can do good".

    I wanna know if you can work under pressure. If you have a history of making good calls when under serious pressure. If they have the ability to lead, plan, and get things done. If you've ever worked in a job that was practically 24/7. I wanna see if you have any people skills at all, because saying the wrong thing to the wrong person could have devastating effects for everyone in this country. I wanna see if you know how to compromise, without compromising rights that Americans have held sacred for generations. I wanna know if this person running for president has ever done anything for the indigent people in this country, or has ever so much as entered a soup kitchen. I wanna know if running for president is something you're doing to serve your country and your country's people, rather than just serving yourself.
  8. #8
    Look at what has happened with Obama. Every level of public servant qualification he has just helps him do things that half the country hates. When members of groups talk about qualifications, they're talking about who they think could best achieve the policies that they all agree on. But in terms of the entire electorate, most of that loses meaning. So then what makes somebody qualified? I don't know.

    I just find the idea strange since the terms of qualifications are typically used on things where there is vast consensus.
  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Douglas Adams
    The major problem—one of the major problems, for there are several—one of the many major problems with governing people is that of whom you get to do it; or rather of who manages to get people to let them do it to them.
    To summarize: it is a well-known fact that those people who must want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it.
    To summarize the summary: anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no account be allowed to do the job.
    ― The Restaurant at the End of the Universe
  10. #10
    ^^ True.

    To add to my previous post, look at the Federal Reserve. It's full of incredibly qualified people, arguably the most qualified relative to the level of qualifications other government institutions have. Yet it's doing a terrible job. When it comes to public policy, it seems all too easy for unsound arguments to win. It's so bad at the Fed that they're in perpetual boot shivering mode over inflation even though there is zero evidence to suggest that inflation is anywhere close to a problem.

    We've gotten to the point that I'm considering the idea that a lack of qualifications is the best possible qualification for public service. I bet if the FOMC was made up entirely of people who know nothing about monetary policy except a week of guidance over the basic facts and data, they'd institute a policy regime far more functional than the lunacy we have now. I'm not joking. The Fed's policy regime is just that nonsensical, while the facts it's ignoring are quite easy to understand.
  11. #11
    There's just something unique about public policy that makes it so different than everything else IMO. It's schizophrenic, paralytic, tribal. Maybe the real qualifications are from those who show a track record of making things better. I guess that's probably why the tradition for presidents is governors, since, well, they're in the best position to show that they have at least been head of state at the same time as positive developments.
  12. #12
    I don't give a shit about presidential politics at all, but I will be deeply disturbed if Trump wins. I'm pretty sure he has precisely 0% chance, but it'll be pretty hideous if he even gets close to the nomination.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  13. #13
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Trump wins the Republican nomination easily. He's switched modes from using it to get press (like he normally does) to actually trying to win after seeing his numbers keep going up and up.

    Also, I can't believe so many people are falling for some of the things he says. For example, people (many of which I would think are thinking people) are up in arms over his "position" on immigration. Running for office is all about saying a bunch of shit and then doing something different when you get into office. Why anyone thinks he's really going to try to deport xx,xxx,xxx people is beyond me.

    For as much as you people bitch about partisan politics, I would think you'd be on Trump's campaign team considering how he's got both major parties pissed off at him and actively trying to undermine him.
  14. #14
    He doesn't even want the nomination.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  15. #15
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by baudib View Post
    He doesn't even want the nomination.
    He didn't at first, but he's made moves recently that show his poll numbers changed his mind.

    What it looks like is that he was surprised by his initial poll numbers and started making ridiculous comments to get even more attention in an attempt to burn out. Instead of dropping off of the map, his poll numbers surged instead.

    He's definitely tapped into something with conservatives who don't like the current Republican Party platform.
  16. #16
    Spoon your claims about Trump are interesting. It's hard to find much direct evidence of it, which is sorta why I've started taking him at face value. It's the same for Carson. There are reasons to believe that he's just doing this to sell his book, but, well, there are more reasons to think that he's really running.

    Anyways, I don't think Trump's polls are that impressive. Casuals don't pay attention to elections at this point. Most of the casuals that are paying attention are here for the Donald. Of course his polls are going to reflect this bias.

    Also, the amount of primary voters each cycle relative to the last twenty years of primary voters is something like 15%. Trump's numbers don't reflect a new position in voter preferences so much as poll response of a small group of voters that will possibly enter the primaries just for him. On top of that, a ton of those polling for Trump are typically unreliable turnout.

    I can't imagine he won't underperform his polls. I suspect Carson will overperform his polls. Trump could end up barely winning Iowa and New Hampshire, with Carson on his tail. Then South Carolina, with its open primary and lots of black voters, could welcome us to the Carson era.

    I gotta be honest, I'm very intrigued by a Carson/Fiorina ticket. Partly for the policy, but mostly for the politics. I want the Democratic coalition to break. It needs to stop being the party of social and economic justice. I think that can only happen if the GOP is viewed as "the party of" blacks and women. Gimme Carson/Fiorina vs Biden/O'Malley any day.
  17. #17
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    All i know is that political careers have ended for far less than "she was probably bleeding out of her whatever" and "Mexicans are thieves and rapists".
  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Anyways, I don't think Trump's polls are that impressive. Casuals don't pay attention to elections at this point. Most of the casuals that are paying attention are here for the Donald. Of course his polls are going to reflect this bias.
    He consistently takes 30-40 percent of Republicans right now. Jeb Bush is his closest rival, and he's polling in the single digits right now. How are you not impressed?
  19. #19
    Spoon, Trump has a ways to go to even get to Ross Perot territory.

    Perot was leading the national polls 5 months before the general election. By end of summer it was pretty obviously always gonna be Bush-Clinton.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    He consistently takes 30-40 percent of Republicans right now. Jeb Bush is his closest rival, and he's polling in the single digits right now. How are you not impressed?
    I'm arguing that the polls don't reflect the electorate that well. The people paying attention today are much different than the people who will pay attention near the primary and caucus days. I just don't know how much different that will be.

    A cult of personality should be expected to have such lopsided poll results at this stage in the game. Very few people who are going to vote Bush in the primaries are even paying attention right now. But every Trump supporter is.
  21. #21
    What I'm saying is more about "I don't know". I think the polls are going to get the early primaries wrong. Probably by a lot. Iowa and New Hampshire at least have a history of this. Plus polling is in semi-crisis already. Cell phones and disaffected voters seem to have been making polling less and less reliable over the last couple cycles.
  22. #22
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Trump takes Iowa. Who wants to bet against me?
  23. #23
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  24. #24
    Not me. 90% of the time the winner of Iowa is Trump, Carson, or Walker.
  25. #25
    Trump does have a serious strength in that he comfortably breaks a lot of rules that are said that politicians must never break. It isn't that the rules are right, but that culture is so engrossed in them and is ripe for a non-politician to come along and break them and in doing so perform better than those adhering to the rules.
  26. #26
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    THE TRUMPENING IS UPON US

    DOUBLE DIGIT LEADS IN POLLS IN IOWA
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 08-27-2015 at 10:21 AM.
  27. #27
  28. #28
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    That's fucking hilarious lol
  29. #29
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    himself fucker.


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  30. #30
    Been playing with the numbers on this interactive map (scroll down).

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...scenarios.html

    It's showing the payoff for the GOP when increasing white vote % is way, way, way greater than any of the other demographics. Like, it doesn't even matter if they appeal to Hispanics and Asians. They can win by increase their black percentage by 20 points, but only need to increase white percentage by 4 points to crush. With this in mind, somebody like Trump really can win. Anti-immigration has a lot of appeal to white voters and it doesn't really hurt any of the votes the GOP needs since the immigrant votes don't matter much in the important swing states. If the GOP has its normal base turnout along with an increase in anti-immigration turnout, it wins. In the same fashion, it can do the same by getting the Christian conservative turnout. States like Ohio and Pennsylvania and Iowa should be solid red given how many conservatives they have. But they have a serious turnout problem. Many thousands of rural conservatives stay home.
  31. #31
    The Alpha Mael Chael Sonnen endorses Trump therefore all tasteful, creative, godly people endorse Trump

  32. #32
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    Chael Sonnen was on Jim Cornette's podcast last week, and it was extremely, extremely good.
  33. #33
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  34. #34
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oskar View Post
    If he did this, I would actually vote.
  35. #35
    even funnier than the previous one

    http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...nscript-parody
  36. #36
    I think Trump would be more pro-immigration than any of the Democrats. Republicans have always been the pro-immigration party. Every GOP president since Reagan has been very pro-immigration. What's going on now that makes the GOP looks so anti-immigration has more to do with the law. Conservatives adore lawfulness. Its one of their most important principles. Even their response to the Kim Davis protest is mostly that even though they agree with her philosophically, she's wrongheaded because she's breaking the law. All this outrage over immigration on the right stems from a growing problem of lawlessness.

    Contrast this to the Democrats. They appear pro-immigration because they say nice things about non-white ethnicities. But the reality is that the entire Democratic platform is not conducive to high levels of legal immigration. It harms labor and the welfare state big time. What I think we would find under a Clinton comprehensive reform agenda is a lot of kind words about Hispanics, but ultimately a legal immigration system that doesn't actually allow that many immigrants in.

    If Trump becomes president what I think we'll see is a yuge attempt at cracking down on illegal immigration and criminal behavior. Then after the optics are clear that the US does not favor lawlessness, conservatives would revert back to their norm of being pro-immigration like usual. The immigration totals would probably be much higher than under a Democratic reform since the conservative pro-immigration stance stems largely from business and the need for workers. The Democratic position is the opposite. Its base is union labor, an archenemy of immigration.
  37. #37
    Cracking down on illegal immigration to setup for reform sounds like insisting on winning the war on drugs before legalization.
  38. #38
    It kinda does. I'm a much bigger fan of issuing visas to anybody who asks as long as they pass a criminal background check. And I don't want them monitored after they enter the country. In fact I'm open to the idea of automatic citizenship upon residency.

    It would be the best of all worlds. The support for unproductive welfare would wholly collapse, the economy would start growing about 3x faster than trend, and a shitload of poor people would no longer be so poor.
  39. #39
    My intent was to point out that conservatives have a deep attachment to lawfulness. It isn't because of racism or nationalism that so many are against illegal immigration, but that they view lawlessness as a culture destroying problem and are dumbfounded at the extreme laziness of many to even acknowledge the lawlessness.
  40. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    My intent was to point out that conservatives have a deep attachment to lawfulness. It isn't because of racism or nationalism that so many are against illegal immigration, but that they view lawlessness as a culture destroying problem and are dumbfounded at the extreme laziness of many to even acknowledge the lawlessness.
    Ah, I see, you weren't advocating for the position, just highlighting its origins?

    Well, yeah, so I'm a bit skeptical-- it's a really good talking point, and I can understand people being preoccupied with lawfulness, however I also think it's a convenient veil for racism, nationalism, etc. Now I think you and I can agree that it is used as a veil, knowingly or not, by some. So I guess the question is whether or not it's a significant subset of the right.

    I'm not decided, I'm just skeptical, and hopefully you can understand such skepticism given the history of similar talking points that in hind-sight clearly were being used as covers to legitimize xenophobic and racist agendas.
  41. #41
    Check out the latest Thaddeus Russell podcast I posted. He makes a compelling argument that implies that racism in the US could be said to be more about culturalism than ethnicity.

    I have a hard time defining what is exactly racism. I'm leaning towards the idea that racism is emergent from culturalism. In this context, racism is an effect. Racial discrimination certainly manifests a billion different ways, but I'm unsatisfied with the idea that the core of prejudice is race.
  42. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Check out the latest Thaddeus Russell podcast I posted. He makes a compelling argument that implies that racism in the US could be said to be more about culturalism than ethnicity.

    I have a hard time defining what is exactly racism. I'm leaning towards the idea that racism is emergent from culturalism. In this context, racism is an effect. Racial discrimination certainly manifests a billion different ways, but I'm unsatisfied with the idea that the core of prejudice is race.
    Interestingly it would seem that racism being at the core of prejudice and cultural differences being the main driver of prejudice need not be mutually exclusive ideas. Maybe this is why it can often be so easy to justify one's own racism-- maybe racism is the seed that the prejudice forest grows from.
  43. #43
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Booooooooooooom.

    Trump blows Carson out of the water with 20+ point lead exactly as I predicted.
  44. #44
    it's almost as if you should know better than to think much of an ipsos/reuters poll. also, you want to look at changes in performance of each pollster. the trump/carson dynamic hasnt changed much in this regard.

    what has actually been happening appears to be that trump's support hasnt changed since the beginning, and some carson supporters are moving to cruz and bush supporters to rubio.
  45. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    it's almost as if you should know better than to think much of an ipsos/reuters poll. also, you want to look at changes in performance of each pollster. the trump/carson dynamic hasnt changed much in this regard.

    what has actually been happening appears to be that trump's support hasnt changed since the beginning, and some carson supporters are moving to cruz and bush supporters to rubio.
    Go ahead and cherry pick the polls you want to back the narrative you want, but when you're kicking everyone's ass, you can't fake the funk and you can't stump the Trump.
  46. #46
    it's almost as if you should know that what you're doing is cherry picking and what im doing is the opposite of cherry picking.
  47. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    it's almost as if you should know that what you're doing is cherry picking and what im doing is the opposite of cherry picking.
    It's almost as if you think anyone in the race other than Trump has a snowball's chance in hell of winning.
  48. #48
    cruz baited trump with the ny values and trump bit hook, line, and sinker. he hunkered down and attacked cruz on every little thing he could, feigning offense and the high ground, and the entire conservative base sees right through it. probably the most notable instance is mark levin's response:





    the trump has been stumped.
  49. #49
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    First of all, nobody even knows who the fuck Mark Levin is. Second of all, Cruz blundered terribly with the NY values line, and Trump's support has been rising ever since he made it in every major poll at the expense of Cruz's support.

    Trump and Cruz are dead even in Iowa right now because of that exchange. Tell me again how that's all a part of Cruz's master plan and he totally suckered Trump in lol?

    Cruz has dropped 5-6 points in Iowa since Tuesday. He got his ass handed to him thanks to his enormous fuck-up against Trump. Take a look: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ucus-3194.html

    Moreover, Trump is absolutely dominating in NH: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-3350.html

    Cruz's "hook, line and sinker" most likely just costed him any reasonable chance at winning the primary. When people look back at where Cruz went wrong, it's that single comment that they're going to point to as the inflection point.

    Where's that WHOLE REPUBLICAN BASE at? Sure as shit isn't in Iowa or NH. Trump's polling higher than ever nationwide too.
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 01-17-2016 at 12:21 PM.
  50. #50
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by baudib View Post
    Spoon, Trump has a ways to go to even get to Ross Perot territory.

    Perot was leading the national polls 5 months before the general election. By end of summer it was pretty obviously always gonna be Bush-Clinton.
    A WAYS TO GO LOL
  51. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    First of all, nobody even knows who the fuck Mark Levin is. Second of all, Cruz blundered terribly with the NY values line, and Trump's support has been rising ever since he made it in every major poll at the expense of Cruz's support.

    Trump and Cruz are dead even in Iowa right now because of that exchange. Tell me again how that's all a part of Cruz's master plan and he totally suckered Trump in lol?

    Cruz has dropped 5-6 points in Iowa since Tuesday. He got his ass handed to him thanks to his enormous fuck-up against Trump. Take a look: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ucus-3194.html

    Moreover, Trump is absolutely dominating in NH: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...mary-3350.html

    Cruz's "hook, line and sinker" most likely just costed him any reasonable chance at winning the primary. When people look back at where Cruz went wrong, it's that single comment that they're going to point to as the inflection point.

    Where's that WHOLE REPUBLICAN BASE at? Sure as shit isn't in Iowa or NH. Trump's polling higher than ever nationwide too.
    people who vote in republican primaries know who mark levin is.

    there have been zero major polls conducted since the ny values line.

    cruz and trump have been dead even for a few poll cycles now.

    trump has always been strong in new hampshire and he is by a large margin the most likely to win it. cruz isn't trying to compete in it because his path to victory doesn't involve nh. plus the way it awards delegates, even if cruz finished a strong second, he would get next to nothing. cruz may hit the trail in nh after iowa like everybody does, but he's best served by mostly skipping nh and clearing the field by winning iowa and the sec primary.

    the ny values thing only helps cruz in a primary (as well as a general). his path to victory in both do not involve any votes from anybody who is sympathetic to nyc. a surprising majority of conservatives (like >90% care about the values distinction between ny and other places).

    strong nationwide numbers relative to not as strong statewide numbers hurt trump. they reflect media attention more than anything and once the votes come in he will underperform and that underperformance will create negative momentum.
  52. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    people who vote in republican primaries know who mark levin is.

    there have been zero major polls conducted since the ny values line.

    cruz and trump have been dead even for a few poll cycles now.

    trump has always been strong in new hampshire and he is by a large margin the most likely to win it. cruz isn't trying to compete in it because his path to victory doesn't involve nh. plus the way it awards delegates, even if cruz finished a strong second, he would get next to nothing. cruz may hit the trail in nh after iowa like everybody does, but he's best served by mostly skipping nh and clearing the field by winning iowa and the sec primary.

    the ny values thing only helps cruz in a primary (as well as a general). his path to victory in both do not involve any votes from anybody who is sympathetic to nyc. a surprising majority of conservatives (like >90% care about the values distinction between ny and other places).

    strong nationwide numbers relative to not as strong statewide numbers hurt trump. they reflect media attention more than anything and once the votes come in he will underperform and that underperformance will create negative momentum.
    Name a state that matters where Trump is losing by a significant margin. There isn't one, not even Iowa.

    Stick a fork in Cruz because his ass his done.
  53. #53
    an irony about trump as a the gop nominee is that his presence on the ballot would crush the gop presence in congress. so much of his support comes from democrats who would inevitably show up to vote for trump but then d's in the other races.

    ofc the establishment believes the opposite of this. but theyre dummies who are afraid of data and logic.
  54. #54
    check out that 538 article i linked twice. trump's state weaknesses aren't seen just by looking at one set of polls. it comes by way of when national numbers are better than state numbers, the real state results decline. also when state numbers are stronger than national numbers, the real state results increase.

    i would much rather be in cruz's position than trump's. the fact that cruz is neck and neck with trump in iowa yet way behind nationally means that his true performance is much more robust than trump's.
  55. #55
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    Your logic game is weak here. Trump is destroying him. De-fucking-stroying. Denial won't save you, and it won't save Canadian Cruz.
  56. #56
    at least you're getting your wish. trump is tripling down on his despicable and slimy hypocrisy. let's hope voters aren't as shitty of people as his strategy depends upon them being.
  57. #57
    a trump presidency would mark a historical turning point in the american ethos, namely that it would by majority have adopted the continental european ethos of strongmen and authoritarianism.

    http://www.redstate.com/2016/01/17/study-proves-trumps-supporters-wont-leave-matter/

    additionally, many of trump's biggest supporters are most antagonistic to the sjw ethos, yet trump himself embodies the sjw ethos as much as any other person. how strange.
  58. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    a trump presidency would mark a historical turning point in the american ethos, namely that it would by majority have adopted the continental european ethos of strongmen and authoritarianism.

    additionally, many of trump's biggest supporters are most antagonistic to the sjw ethos, yet trump himself embodies the sjw ethos as much as any other person. how strange.
    Some of his supporters are blind to the very things they hate about a candidate. He has become a cult of personality to many who ultimately value national populism over substantive conservatism.
  59. #59
    True. I like the analysis making waves recently (for a second time), that his supporters are there almost exclusively for his anti-PCness. It's the one thing they all agree on and the one thing he actually has. Outside of that, his and their values are a wild mess of this that and the other.
  60. #60
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    hey just want to remind u that trump is the fuckin man and lol at all ur tears go play hello kitty or w/e you socialists do spending other peoples money and cry mor

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