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  1. #7726
    Rudy's on the case!

    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  2. #7727
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I don't think we see riots over an election, no matter who wins.

    We could have seen riots on the night if there was voter suppression at the polls, or something equally belligerent to democracy. Maybe.

    Protests are far more likely, but given it's 2020... who knows.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  3. #7728
    I don't want to be the guy to say I called it that Trump would only ever leave the WH kicking and screaming, but yeah I did. About 3 years ago now I think.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  4. #7729
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    Apparently oddmakers still giving Biden 1.04. If you're 100% it's all set and done, all-in.
    Basically the bookies are 96% certain Biden didn't cheat, or at least that he won't get caught.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #7730
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    I don't want to be the guy to say I called it that Trump would only ever leave the WH kicking and screaming, but yeah I did. About 3 years ago now I think.
    I'd like to think if the courts decide that there was no fraud, or any fraud that did happen was minor and did not effect the outcome of the election, he will wind his neck in. It's all too easy to point out how literally everyone predicted he'd do this, what matters is if he's right to do this, and frankly I have not the slightest clue.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  6. #7731
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    The constitution lays out who is president when.
    The Secret Service is sworn to protect - well a lot of various people - but the president, not DJT.

    They are fully capable of removing a trespasser from the White House property.

    And even if they couldn't, which would be monumentally embarrassing, but at this point... could the US be more embarrassed on the world stage?
    but even if they couldn't remove Trump from the White House... uhh... who says the president can't president from wherever the hell he is?

    I get the fanaticism that this is the rise of fascism in the US, and I'm not sure they're wrong, but I really don't think we're at the breaking point, yet. At any rate, I'm hoping that the clusterfuck of Trump being gone will mean we make a hard turn back from that, but ... I'm hoping.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  7. #7732
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I'd like to think if the courts decide that there was no fraud, or any fraud that did happen was minor and did not effect the outcome of the election, he will wind his neck in.
    We'd all like to think that. But, past and present behaviour is a pretty solid predictor of future behaviour.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  8. #7733
    Should point out that Rudy's presser above took place at the Four Seasons in Philly. No, not the hotel, the Four Seasons Lanscaping Company. Located between a porn store and a crematorium.

    You can't make this shit up.

    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  9. #7734
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I mean... the mistake on the people booking the gig is one thing.

    The fact that the Four Seasons Landscaping Company knew what they were doing is priceless.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  10. #7735
    Only the best people.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  11. #7736
    Best things on the internet today.

    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  12. #7737
    So apparently Trump just lost with the most votes for a sitting President in US history.

    This tweet is disputed blah blah. Twitter are literally censoring some of Trump's tweets, which you can view if you take a link but replies are turned off. Twitter really should not be doing that. How can Twitter know if voter fraud happened or not? They should be completely impartial, and these tweets form an important public record. We all want to see evidence rather than tweets, but if anyone is qualified to make this claim then it's Trump. He can take the legal consequences of making libelous comments, Twitter are not responsible for his comments, so they should let it play out without meddling.

    I can believe that voter turnout was as high as it was because Trump is hugely polarising, and people felt compelled to either get him out or keep him in. I'm struggling to believe that he lost a lead of 300k+ in PA, and if the claims he's making that tractors blocked doorways and windows were covered up can be backed up with video evidence, then I might start to believe this election was rigged. And if it was, the question then begs, do they left prefer a rigged election if it means Trump is finished? This might be where we're going.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  13. #7738
    The market is still open and Trump is currently 16/1. Not bad considering Biden is practically declared winner.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  14. #7739
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I'm struggling to believe that he lost a lead of 300k+ in PA,

    They counted the rural votes first, followed by urban, followed by mail-ins. Most of his support is rural and/or illiterate. That explains it.



    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    and if the claims he's making that tractors blocked doorways and windows were covered up can be backed up with video evidence
    Yeah, I'm sure he's just waiting for the right moment to reveal that smoking gun video evidence lol.

    Seriously, not one elected R is backing his claims. So either they hate him too or he's really got nothing. Either way, he's a loser.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  15. #7740
    Yeah, I'm sure he's just waiting for the right moment to reveal that smoking gun video evidence lol.
    Well it could be a legal tactic to ensure it is first heard in court and not the media, so as to not allow the defence to prepare. idk, I can't find any evidence of fraud and can only find what other people find to be irregularities. I've seen what Trump himself has tweeted. I would have thought if he had serious evidence, then we'd know about it, at least in the sense he'd be talking up his chances of legal success. They claim to have witnesses, but I'm not going to believe anything anyone on either side has to say.

    My default is that if they can't prove fraud, then it didn't happen, or the fraud is flawless in its execution and giving a fuck about it isn't going to help me in any way. But being the cynic I am, I definitely suspect foul play.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  16. #7741
    They counted the rural votes first, followed by urban, followed by mail-ins. Most of his support is rural and/or illiterate. That explains it.
    Aren't you super brainy when it comes to statistical analysis? What the probability of this kind of swing happening due to these factors?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  17. #7742
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Well it could be a legal tactic to ensure it is first heard in court and not the media, so as to not allow the defence to prepare.
    You've been watching too many TV shows. You can't just pop into a courtroom with surprise evidence, you have to disclose it ahead of time to the other side.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  18. #7743
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Aren't you super brainy when it comes to statistical analysis? What the probability of this kind of swing happening due to these factors?
    It happened in pretty much every state. The early votes favoured Trump more (rural) and the later ones favoured Biden more (urban and mail-in). The reason it looks suspicious is just the order they counted them in.

    If they counted them all at the same time it would have looked similar to how it looks now all along.

    If they counted the mail-ins first, then the urban then the rural, Biden's lead would have started out large then shrunk over time.

    I mean obviously I can't see everything so for all I know they just made up several million votes for Biden. Or maybe they made up several million for Trump. Or for both. But there ought to be a way to catch them if that's what happened. They can also have recounts so that's another check on the system. Not foolproof, but obviously you can't just call an election you lose rigged without evidence.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  19. #7744
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I love the idea that there was a problem in getting to the polls... boarded up windows, big pickup trucks... and no one has shared video on their facebook for their 15 minutes of fame.

    It's right up there with the moon landing being a hoax.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  20. #7745
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Funny thing is that it's the rural people who are generally the nicest people who will pull over to help you change a flat tire on the side of the road no matter what. Whereas the urban people are generally dicks and barely have the time to give you good directions.

    Funny that.

    Funny how it's the urban people all excited about human rights and the rural people who just want to outlaw gay marriage and close borders.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  21. #7746
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    I love the idea that there was a problem in getting to the polls... boarded up windows, big pickup trucks... and no one has shared video on their facebook for their 15 minutes of fame.

    It's right up there with the moon landing being a hoax.
    Millions people at the polls and every single one of them forgot to charge their phone that day.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  22. #7747
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    I love the proof that there's no such thing as cow-tipping being that there are no YouTube videos of cow-tipping.

    It doesn't work for everything, but on some things, it's rock solid.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  23. #7748
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Aren't you super brainy when it comes to statistical analysis? What the probability of this kind of swing happening due to these factors?
    Where do you suspect the probability is introduced to the equation?

    Facts:

    Rural counties, having smaller operations, were able to report their votes quicker.
    Urban counties, having much more unwieldy operations, took longer to count and report their votes.
    Mail in ballots were counted last.
    Mail in ballots post marked by, but received after 11/3 have been segregated pending the outcome of pending legal disputes.

    The first group skews Trump.
    The latter groups skews Biden.

    Where do you see probability coming into this?
  24. #7749
    oskar's Avatar
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    They got the actual reservation call from inside Four Seasons Total Landscaping!
    https://twitter.com/nanglish/status/...519233024?s=20

    Some furries in VRChat made it into a game world within like 24h:
    https://twitter.com/thecoopertom/sta...305026560?s=20
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  25. #7750
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    I love the proof that there's no such thing as cow-tipping being that there are no YouTube videos of cow-tipping.

    It doesn't work for everything, but on some things, it's rock solid.
    And it allegedly happened in front of all these people and none of them thought it worth filming. Riiiight.

    Case closed.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  26. #7751
    Trump's odds are shorter, he's now at 10/1

    Quote Originally Posted by poop
    But there ought to be a way to catch them if that's what happened. They can also have recounts so that's another check on the system. Not foolproof, but obviously you can't just call an election you lose rigged without evidence.
    I definitely agree with this. Trump has lost unless he proves fraud beyond doubt. The onus is on him to prove the election result has been influenced by fraud. Minor examples won't cut it, and nor will witnesses.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  27. #7752
    Quote Originally Posted by boost View Post
    Where do you suspect the probability is introduced to the equation?

    Facts:

    Rural counties, having smaller operations, were able to report their votes quicker.
    Urban counties, having much more unwieldy operations, took longer to count and report their votes.
    Mail in ballots were counted last.
    Mail in ballots post marked by, but received after 11/3 have been segregated pending the outcome of pending legal disputes.

    The first group skews Trump.
    The latter groups skews Biden.

    Where do you see probability coming into this?
    The question is how much these factors can cause a swing like we're seeing. 300k is a fuckton of votes to claw back. Even if Biden is outperforming Trump in the cities, Trump still gets votes. Even if mail ballots favour Biden, they can't all be for him. And we're not seeing these kind of swings across the country, just in these contentious states.

    I'm not kidding when I say I'm basing my opinion off the odds fluctuating. That's the least biased source I'm aware of. It's an aggregate of the betting public's opinion. And if Trump's odds are getting shorter, then I'm led to believe that some people think he has a solid case. I don't know what that case is, but I'm not going to question those putting their money where their mouth is. I'll just grab the popcorn.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  28. #7753
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    The question is how much these factors can cause a swing like we're seeing. 300k is a fuckton of votes to claw back. Even if Biden is outperforming Trump in the cities, Trump still gets votes. Even if mail ballots favour Biden, they can't all be for him. And we're not seeing these kind of swings across the country, just in these contentious states.

    I'm not kidding when I say I'm basing my opinion off the odds fluctuating. That's the least biased source I'm aware of. It's an aggregate of the betting public's opinion. And if Trump's odds are getting shorter, then I'm led to believe that some people think he has a solid case. I don't know what that case is, but I'm not going to question those putting their money where their mouth is. I'll just grab the popcorn.
    There was no "claw back". The votes were not cast in response to previous cast votes. The votes were cast and then different batches of them were counted at different times. I suppose there is a bit of randomness in that each batch of votes reported from a specific county could be more or less representative of the actual vote. But from what I understand there were no weird swings in the vote breakdown in individual counties. And slow counting consistently correlates with large populations, meaning it was not a roll of the dice that saw Trump "come out ahead" at the start, it was a function of the non linear logistic burden of tallying a greater number of ballots.

    It just isn't a probabilistic question.

    An illustation:

    If we had 100 tokens, 49 gold and 51 silver-- if we blindly pick one at a time from a hat, the probability of picking all 49 gold before picking a silver is very low. And I think that's how you're thinking about this. But what actually happened is that there were several hats, and they all had various predetermined distributions of tokens. The later hats to be emptied had and were expected to have a greater number of silver tokens. So the place probability comes in is whether or not the drawings from the hats were within a reasonable level of variance throughout their individual draw downs, and if not, that would be a sign of irregularities.
  29. #7754
    You need to use an analogy Ong will understand.

    Ong: You wake up from a night of smoking spliffs. You were too baked to remember how many you had left. You know you started with 10 but the rest is a blur. You look in one ashtray and find 3 roaches and 2 spliffs. You think "fuck I must have smoked most of my spliffs." Then you look in another ashtray and find 1 roache and 4 spliffs. That gives you 4 roaches and 6 spliffs.

    A normal person thinks "oh wasn't expecting that after I looked in the first ashtray, but ok." You, on the other hand, adjust your tinfoil hat and conclude there was probably a conspiracy amongst your friends and neighbors to replace a bunch of roaches with spliffs.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  30. #7755
    Boost's post made a lot more sense than yours, poop. Perhaps that's because boost is attempting to haver a serious conversation, while poop is just taking the piss. Reducto as poopium.

    Boost, I get what you're saying, but I'm still finding it hard to believe that Trump can go 300k+ ahead, and then Biden can win back those votes. I appreciate "claw back" isn't the best language, but this is still an anomaly. It's something I would expect to see across the country, a pattern, if it were a reliable indication of how things were.

    I totally could be wrong, I'm not firmly in the "fraud" camp here, I'm trying to take a neutral position free from ideological bias. There's something more at stake than just the presidency here... democracy itself is dead if potential fraud is allowed to happen, especially if people take a side down partisan lines. We're pretty much in another divided situation here... the left think everything is in order, the right think there's fraud. I'm not seeing right leaning people saying "meh it's probably legit, gg", nor am I seeing left leaning people saying "these claims need to be investigated properly". That tells me people are not thinking with their brains, but their hearts.

    Hence, why I prefer betfair as my guide to what's really going on. Trump still 10/1, which is a lot shorter than the 35/1 he was going at 24 hours after the election. So there must be some confidence from those in the know that he has a case. That's my take.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  31. #7756
    What kind of lead would you think IS surmountable? I get that 300k seems like a big number, and I don't remember how many votes there were in PA, but I'm sure it was in the millions.

    And I for one would be happy to see a proper investigation, assuming there was something that resembles plausible evidence for systematic fraud. Hearsay and Rudy Guiliani don't cut it. Doing an investigation where it's not warranted is itself an attempt to subvert democracy by undermining public trust in the election process.
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 11-11-2020 at 10:16 AM.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  32. #7757
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post

    Hence, why I prefer betfair as my guide to what's really going on. Trump still 10/1, which is a lot shorter than the 35/1 he was going at 24 hours after the election. So there must be some confidence from those in the know that he has a case. That's my take.
    If he had a case we'd have seen the evidence by now. He's just blowing smoke up the public's ass. The only way he can "win" is in fact to do something treacherous like fabricate evidence or arrest Biden for child pron or re-enact the Reichstag fire or some shit. The betting odds changing reflect nothing more the % of people who are gulllble enough to buy the fraud rhetoric if it gets repeated often enough. Don't treat it like it's some kind of barometer of reality - it's not.

    The real odds of him remaning president are the odds that enough senior Rs and members of SCOTUS would be willing to join in something greasy to keep him in power. And I think even if he had broad R support, the SCOTUS is pretty incorruptible, so he's not going to be able to cheat his way to a win.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  33. #7758
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Hence, why I prefer betfair as my guide to what's really going on. Trump still 10/1, which is a lot shorter than the 35/1 he was going at 24 hours after the election. So there must be some confidence from those in the know that he has a case. That's my take.
    What makes you think the betting people are "in the know", why wouldn't they have ideological bias? Compared to polls, betting odds might be a bit better indication of what those people actually think, albeit with even smaller sample size. Other than that, I don't see how or why they'd be any more accurate.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  34. #7759
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    What makes you think the betting people are "in the know", why wouldn't they have ideological bias? Compared to polls, betting odds might be a bit better indication of what those people actually think, albeit with even smaller sample size. Other than that, I don't see how or why they'd be any more accurate.
    Exactly. The average bettor's only "inside information" is what they're seeing on their Auntie Doris' facebook page. I'll bet a good chunk of the dopes betting on Trump are the same ones who've been on r_thedonald for the past five years talking about how the arrest of Obama and Hillary are "imminent."
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  35. #7760
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Boost's post made a lot more sense than yours, poop. Perhaps that's because boost is attempting to haver a serious conversation, while poop is just taking the piss. Reducto as poopium.
    Well I already explained the math to you earlier and you didn't get it then, so I assumed explaining the math to you in a different way was pointless.




    Which, judging by this comment, was correct.

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    this is still an anomaly.
    What part are you finding anomalous exactly? Biden did better in the urban and mail-in votes than he did in the rural votes everywhere afaik. So in a state with a race that's close, that pattern would result in an early Trump lead being overtaken by Biden when they count the latter votes.
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 11-12-2020 at 05:08 AM.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  36. #7761
    NYT projections have Biden winning PA already by Nov. 4, based on remaining votes to be counted.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/u...s-ballots.html
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  37. #7762
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    You just have to take a stroll through https://thedonald.win/ to see who's bumping up those odds. 10:1 at this point is insane. I might get into politics betting if it's that soft.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  38. #7763
    At this point they're really just betting on the odds of Trump pulling off a successful coup, but I still think 10:1 is being generous to his organisational skills.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  39. #7764
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    boost is attempting to haver a serious conversation
    I am trying to engage, but I'm not sure you are.
  40. #7765
    Quote Originally Posted by boost View Post
    I am trying to engage, but I'm not sure you are.
    Sure I am. And I'm trying very hard not to default onto one side or the other, even though my instinct leads me to think all is not right. If I were in trolling mode, I'd likely hardcore take a "fraud" position and argue like shit about it.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  41. #7766
    Quote Originally Posted by oskar View Post
    You just have to take a stroll through https://thedonald.win/ to see who's bumping up those odds. 10:1 at this point is insane. I might get into politics betting if it's that soft.
    Well you can now get 10c on the dollar on Biden. If you're so certain these people betting on Trump are just idiots, it's literally possible for you to go and take their money off them. 10% return is huge for a no-risk two-month investment.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  42. #7767
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    I am 99% certain they're all idiots. Whether or not this is a good bet just depends on the vig.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  43. #7768
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    https://www.reddit.com/r/PublicFreak...e_for_mocking/

    I'd really like to hear a psychologist properly break down the Trump cult. The cognitive dissonance is deafening. He's an overweight pensioner driving around the beach alone in a ridiculously large pickup truck, hauling nothing but a flag with the image of John Rambo with the face of Donald Trump superimposed, picking fights with teenage girls.
    At the same time he clearly thinks he's some kind of super smart alpha male.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  44. #7769
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    Ok, I just saw it's at 7:1. Where do you bet, Ong? What's a reputable politics betting site? I have never even done sports betting - I know less than nothing, but at 7:1 I'm playing Biden 4rollz. That's ridiculous.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  45. #7770
    I bet at Betfair Exchange, always better odds than bookmakers. Trump currently 9/1, and Biden 1/10.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...S9Hm%2F5PQimug

    Better odds are because you're not betting against the site, but against other people.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  46. #7771
    Quote Originally Posted by oskar View Post
    I'm playing Biden 4rollz. That's ridiculous.
    I'm seriously thinking of betting too. If it goes to 5:1 I'm going to re-mortgage my house.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  47. #7772
    Harris is getting 480:1. What are the chances a healthy 78 year old man kicks off in the next two months? It has to be greater than that!
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  48. #7773
    75 year old man has 3.63% chance of dying in the next year. By 80 it goes up to 5%.

    https://www.finder.com/life-insurance/odds-of-dying

    Divide 3.63 by six, and in two months it's 0.6% or about 167:1. Harris is getting nearly 3x better odds than that.

    Invest 1k to possibly win 480k with an EV of 3k?
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  49. #7774
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    I wonder if this will affect the odds:

    https://twitter.com/marceelias/statu...45253360635904
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  50. #7775
    The strategy as I understand it is to throw up as many legal challenges as they can think of, even completely implausible ones, so that at some point the courts give up and say they can't confirm the election. Which would set a pretty weird precedent if it happened since then no more elections could be upheld if all it takes to deny one is to file a bunch of objections.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  51. #7776
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    I wonder if this will affect the odds:

    https://twitter.com/marceelias/statu...45253360635904
    Aaaaaaaaaaaahahahahah! They're not even trying! Why are they not lying?
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  52. #7777
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    The strategy as I understand it is to throw up as many legal challenges as they can think of, even completely implausible ones, so that at some point the courts give up and say they can't confirm the election. Which would set a pretty weird precedent if it happened since then no more elections could be upheld if all it takes to deny one is to file a bunch of objections.
    Can you legally bet on someone's death? That's what you're doing there. Biden's not looking awful, but at 480:1...
    I guess it's not just death. He could slip and hit his head at a Kaiser Foundation fundraiser, and Harris would be inaugurated...
    This looks like a soft game!
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  53. #7778
    Surely the probability of death is higher during a pandemic, especially for someone 70+
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  54. #7779
    That's right. Fuck me, I'm all in on Harris!!

    Don't worry I'll remember u guys when I'm a gazillionaire.

    Edit: I just checked and she's 570:1 now. Maybe I'll see if those odds go up first.
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 11-12-2020 at 06:05 PM.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  55. #7780
    Wtf??? Gender of next president = female is only 200:1. Are some people expecting Biden to get a sex change before he takes over? Or that Hillary is coming back? These people are fucked...
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  56. #7781
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Ong, what happened in Pennsylvania and other states was predicted by just about everyone talking about the election at least 2 weeks prior to it happening. Pretty sure I repeated that prediction here prior to the election, too.

    So if so many people predicted it, not citing fraud, then it happened as predicted... why is there a suspicion of fraud?


    I love the clip where the judge that's all, "Tell me how this is not hearsay"
    Lawyer's all "Someone said they walked away and came back and didn't know if something was counted, then someone started counting it."
    This is the definition of hearsay. What is submitted to the court is not firsthand testimony of anything, but a statement (or document, or media, etc.) from outside the courtroom that cannot be verified within the courtroom. Effectively it's the legal term for gossip.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  57. #7782
    "Let's see, should I bet on Harris getting 570:1, or on any female getting 200:1. Hmmm...."
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  58. #7783
    You can bet on Harris at 570, then bet against female at 200... printing money.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  59. #7784
    The difficulty is getting someone to take the bet. Someone is offering 200 on female, doesn't mean anyone is taking it. There are lots of apparent anomalies like that when sub-markets are not particularly liquid. Basically someone is trying to get someone to take odds of 200 so he can then go and bet it on Harris at a much bigger price. There's money to be made on betfair if you have a solid roll and a fuckton of discipline.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  60. #7785
    Basic example... if some clown takes your odds of 200 for female president, $10, you then go at stick $5 on Harris to be President at 400, you just made five bucks if Harris isn't prez, and break even if someone she is. If you can get a bet like that every 15 minutes, you're in business, making $20 an hour.

    I reckon I could make money on betfair if I wasn't such a degen. I lack the discipline, and I suck at football betting. Even if I did make money I'd just smoke more weed. But I understand how it works, and know in principle how to make money on there. I'm better off with poker though, I have a much better cashing out record.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  61. #7786
    CoccoBill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    "Let's see, should I bet on Harris getting 570:1, or on any female getting 200:1. Hmmm...."
    My understanding is that if no one gets elected by January 20th (or something?), Pelosi will be acting president.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  62. #7787
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    My understanding is that if no one gets elected by January 20th (or something?), Pelosi will be acting president.
    Hadn't thought of that. My money is still that Harris at 570:1 is a better bet though.

    I'm also putting a fiver on Rudy for pres in 2024.

    Edit: Not because I think I'll get good odds on it, but just because I'm hoping so much it will happen!
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 11-13-2020 at 09:05 AM.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  63. #7788
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    I'd take a long shot on either on Eric or Ivanka. I think Jr just wants to go bear hunting and Tiffany... well, you know. But either one is a very realistic choice for 24 and if somehow Biden doesn't get primaried, they would have a decent shot. The most likely republican candidate is obviously DJT again.
    Last edited by oskar; 11-13-2020 at 03:05 PM.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  64. #7789
    I'll give you evens on Rudy vs. Eric. 5 of your Euros to 5 of my English pounds.

    I'll also bet u 5 Euros the Euro will be worth more than a pound by 2024.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  65. #7790
    oskar's Avatar
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    I'll take the first one. Maybe you can get Ong on the 2nd.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  66. #7791
    Million MAGA March scheduled for tomorrow in D.C. Well, this should be a shitshow.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  67. #7792
    It will be. It'll be a lot of twats waving flags and shouting slogans. If Trump had won, it would be a bunch of twats smashing up shops.

    Trump is incredibly still 13/1, despite Biden being projected Georgia, taking him past 300 electoral votes. Trump himself seems to have toned down his language in preparation for conceding, I think that is coming soon. This looks like it will be over soon, Trump really should only seek legal redress if he thinks he can win. That looks really unlikely now, to the point anyone betting on Trump at 13/1 is a bigger idiot than those betting on Harris.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  68. #7793
    oskar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    It will be. It'll be a lot of twats waving flags and shouting slogans. If Trump had won, it would be a bunch of twats smashing up shops.
    Well I hope you're right, but atm the most radicalized still think he'll somehow legally win and shit won't properly go down until at or after Biden's inauguration.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  69. #7794
    Lol, he's never going to "concede", at least not in the sense of saying "Biden won fair and square." He'll keep saying it was rigged till the day he dies.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  70. #7795
    We'll see. His ego might force him to say Biden won fair and square, as the alternative is to basically imply you were cheated, but are too chicken to to take on the cheats.

    There comes a point where even if there was fraud, it isn't effecting the outcome of the election. If they pulled off this big a scam, they will surely get caught. If we were talking about one state, it's quite within the realms of possibility for fraud to win an election, but it gets exponentially harder with every state you have to fiddle.

    Trump should shift tactics if he intends to stand again in 2024. The legal challenge is over unless he has some undisputable proof. He should rally his supporters into taking defeat with grace, in stark contrast to the cries of the left four years ago, and every day since. Now is the chance for him to make the right look rational and composed, grateful in defeat for the greater success of democracy. That's how I'd spin it if I were him.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  71. #7796
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Now is the chance for him to make the right look rational and composed.
    He's certainly the right man for that job.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  72. #7797
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    in stark contrast to the cries of the left four years ago
    Funny I missed the part where Obama refused to allow him access to the WH, called the election a fraud, and organised a mass rally to protest the alleged fraud
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  73. #7798
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    he's never going to "concede"
    I'll say it again in case his behaviour isn't enough to convince you by now.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry
  74. #7799
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Funny I missed the part where Obama refused to allow him access to the WH, called the election a fraud, and organised a mass rally to protest the alleged fraud
    Well I was referring to the masses rather than an individual.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  75. #7800
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Well I was referring to the masses rather than an individual.
    We'll have to see how many attend the MAGA March today before we come to any conclusions about that I think.
    I just think we should suspend judgment on Trump until we have all the facts through an inquiry

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