*** The Official MAGAposting thread ***

[Poopadoop]

The BBC is state TV. They're very left when it comes to "diversity", ensuring wimmin's football is just called football, and making sure we know about multi coloured transpotatoes. But they're very right when it comes to sucking Tory dick.

They're not state media in the same way that Pravda was though...

I think there is an element of not criticising their bosses at play, but also a tendency for media types in general to be liberal.

The nice thing about the BBC is they don't rely on ad revenue. The not nice thing is they rely on state revenue. The balance is that the state is extremely unlikely to sack or imprison them.

[OngBonga]

They're not state media in the same way that Pravda was though...

Indeed, the Russians can only look on in awe at the beast we've created. The beauty of the BBC is that everyone thinks it's independent and unbiased, and bastard well pay a license for it. Imagine willingly paying for state tv while not even realising it's state tv.

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the BBC doesn't do ads, and some of their content is truly world class entertainment, but I would prefer it to be overtly state tv rather than this bullshit about independence, and do away with the license, just fund it directly from the public purse. Use the channel for matters of public interest... national sports, education, news, popular entertainment... there is a place for state tv, they just shouldn't pretend it's not under government control.

[OngBonga]

Odds are wildly fluctuating. Trump has been as high as 10/1, but he's currently 5/1. From what I can tell, he needs Arizona or Nevada, and is behind in both, though NV is very close. Either that or he needs a favourable recount in WI, which seems optimistic.

I'm going to stick my neck out and say that nearly all votes are legit, that any fraud is within normal margins and is probably negligible, but it's important that any credible claims of fraud are investigated. I mean, I wouldn't have wanted Brexit to happen as a result of direct voter fraud, like fake votes magically appearing. Biden supporters shouldn't want that either. Unknown powers deciding the result of elections is worse than a bad president.

I don't think any of the claims of fraud I've seen are credible, but it's not my job to decide that.

[Poopadoop]

I think Nevada might be close. There's also a chance Georgia flips to Biden. They seem to be excited about Pennsylvania but I don't see any way for the numbers to fall out in Biden's favour myself. Arizona pretty close to a lock.

And of course they should investigate any credible claims of fraud. The problem is all the non-credible claims that Trump will make that could drag the whole thing out endlessly.

[Poopadoop]

Indeed, the Russians can only look on in awe at the beast we've created. The beauty of the BBC is that everyone thinks it's independent and unbiased, and bastard well pay a license for it. Imagine willingly paying for state tv while not even realising it's state tv.

Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the BBC doesn't do ads, and some of their content is truly world class entertainment, but I would prefer it to be overtly state tv rather than this bullshit about independence, and do away with the license, just fund it directly from the public purse. Use the channel for matters of public interest... national sports, education, news, popular entertainment... there is a place for state tv, they just shouldn't pretend it's not under government control.

I think we have a different concept of the connotations of the term "state TV." Yes, the BBC by a literal definition is state TV, and everyone knows that, but it's hardly a propaganda mouthpiece for the gov't. If it were, you would expect it to change its angle every time a new party comes into power, and it just stays pretty vanilla regardless. It's not like it went from being like a TV version of the Guardian to the Daily Mail the day after the Tories won in 2010.

[Poopadoop]

Think I just found the most Trumpy county in the US

Brantey co., Georgia: 90.3% Trump. Yee-haw!

https://edition.cnn.com/election/202...rgia/president

[OngBonga]

Some agencies have called Arizona for Biden. If that holds, he's one more state from victory. NC+ GA likely Trump, it's all on PA and NV. I would have thought Trump's lead is just too much in PA, so NV seems the key state which will decide the winner.

[boost]

The reason NV is very likely Biden and GA and PA could slide into his column is that the uncounted votes are almost entirely in large metros, Atlanta, Reno, Las Vegas, Philly-- and these lean heavily blue.

That said, Trump is doing slightly better than expected in Maricopa County, which is home to the Phoenix metro, and that's why some outlets have taken back their call for it going to Biden. I think AZ likely holds, but it could narrow to a <1% margin.

[Poopadoop]

You can do a crude projection by extrapolating from the individual counties and assuming that the remaining votes in each county will be the same % Biden/Trump as the already-counted votes. Crude because they are mostly down to counting mail-in ballots now and these tend to lean more towards Biden than the walk-ins afaik.

On this analysis (which I did), Biden wins AZ by 65k. Trump win GA by 45k, and PA by 60k, and NV is projected Biden by 12k so could end up being close. Depends on how much the remaining numbers keep the pattern of the current numbers. Got tired of it and didn't bother to do NC, but since NC is currently Trump with 80k lead, and has counted more votes than GA (where Trump is only ahead 20k), I assume GA will go Biden before NC, in which case what happens in NC would be academic.

[Poopadoop]

Edit: Normalised the decimal places. This wont' format right I'm sure, but here is AZ. Each row is a single county, in alphabetical order.

% B total votes % counted B T
0.68 32848 75 22186 10661
0.41 59451 82 24665 34786
0.64 70226 82 45027 25198
0.33 27044 85 9024 18020
0.27 15369 85 4209 11161
0.35 3938 76 1366 2572
0.31 7165 89 2226 4939
0.52 1878290 86 979149 899141
0.25 97695 82 24201 73493
0.47 48231 83 22478 25752
0.61 402458 91 245063 157395
0.44 154682 87 67405 87277
0.69 18853 82 12970 5883
0.36 122778 99 44036 78742
0.46 63563 77 29362 34202

B T
Projection 1533368 1469222

% 51.07 48.93


Edit: Any way to put tabs in your posts?

[boost]

The easiest way I would know to format that post is to do it in a spreadsheet, export to PDF, or screenshot it, then upload to imgur and post as an image.

But, yeah, that's a good basic method, but every adjustment to that method seems to favor Biden. Like, a lot of the uncounted votes are mail in. It's hard to come up with any adjustments that favor Trump.

[oskar]

Neat!
You can share excel sheets super easy with office.com and it's free as long as you're online.

[Poopadoop]

every adjustment to that method seems to favor Biden. Like, a lot of the uncounted votes are mail in.

That's my thinking as well.

It's hard to come up with any adjustments that favor Trump.

Apart from finding votes in a trash bin, I agree here too.

[Poopadoop]

Actually found a hiccup in my GA calcs where I accidentally skipped by a whole page of counties. Good thing I don't get paid for this.

Now have Biden winnng GA by ~20k.

I will try to use the imgdur thing ; I think if I put it on office.com all my workmates will see it and realise this is what I do when no-one's watching me haha.

[Poopadoop]

Actually, I can post them here using spaces rather than tabs, then you can copy-paste them into excel, select row A and use text-to-columns with "space" as the delimiter. Should work.

[Poopadoop]

test

AZ

%Biden totalvotes %counted B T
0.68 32848 75 22186 10661
0.41 59451 82 24665 34786
0.64 70226 82 45027 25198
0.33 27044 85 9024 18020
0.27 15369 85 4209 11161
0.35 3938 76 1366 2572
0.31 7165 89 2226 4939
0.52 1878290 86 979149 899141
0.25 97695 82 24201 73493
0.47 48231 83 22478 25752
0.61 402458 91 245063 157395
0.44 154682 87 67405 87277
0.69 18853 82 12970 5883
0.36 122778 99 44036 78742
0.46 63563 77 29362 34202

B T
Projection 1533368 1469222
% 51.07 48.93


Edit: Yeah this will work. C-p into excel, select first column, go under 'data' to find the text-to-columns button, click on 'delimiters', then choose 'space' from among the options. Then 'next' and 'finish' and should work.

[Poopadoop]

Nevada

%Biden totalvotes %counted B T
0.441932169 30251.13636 88 13368.95029 16882.18607
0.238336714 13086.66667 90 3119.03313 9967.633536
0.538148525 939684.5238 84 505689.8404 433994.6834
0.350715746 33795.12195 82 11852.48142 21942.64053
0.204943357 22495.29412 85 4610.261101 17885.03302
0.156217883 534.4444444 90 83.4897796 450.9546648
0.099796334 934.3434343 99 93.24404946 841.0993849
0.224845996 7759.782609 92 1744.756049 6015.02656
0.18442623 2903.370787 89 535.457727 2367.913059
0.139959432 2605.747126 87 364.6988879 2241.048239
0.288501027 29064.21053 95 8385.054577 20679.15595
0.360995851 2388.636364 88 862.2878159 1526.348548
0.29015544 23313.63636 88 6764.578427 16549.05794
0.239307536 2409.89011 91 576.7048634 1833.185247
0.321392016 3104.444444 90 997.7436597 2106.700785
0.521560575 253510.1124 89 132220.88 121289.2324
0.205128205 4577.52809 89 938.980121 3638.547969

B T
Projection 692208 680210
% 50.44 49.56

[Poopadoop]

Georgia

%Biden totalvotes %counted B T
0.213855422 8722.105263 95 1865.269499 6856.835764
0.263636364 3591.954023 87 946.969697 2644.984326
0.134673367 4992.473118 93 672.3531637 4320.119955
0.421686747 1662.068966 87 700.8724553 961.1965102
0.506072874 18180.80808 99 9200.813806 8979.994275
0.106060606 8787.878788 99 932.0477502 7855.831038
0.280612245 37618.18182 99 10556.12245 27062.05937
0.24137931 52023.15789 95 12557.31397 39465.84392
0.372069317 6566.666667 99 2443.255182 4123.411485
0.165156093 8167.021277 94 1348.833323 6818.187954
0.62006079 82047.05882 85 50874.16413 31172.89469
0.232793522 5933.684211 95 1381.323247 4552.360963
0.090634441 8074.736842 95 731.8492606 7342.887581
0.395770393 7098.989899 99 2809.57002 4289.419879
0.279471545 18964.21053 95 5299.95721 13664.25332
0.378680203 31111.57895 95 11781.33903 19330.23991
0.482862903 10654.25532 94 5144.544655 5509.710664
0.27979798 11791.91919 99 3299.355168 8492.564024
0.576884422 2296.842105 95 1325.012431 971.8296747
0.342857143 24400 95 8365.714286 16034.28571
0.286290323 4430.30303 99 1268.352884 3161.950147
0.302231237 53322.10526 95 16115.60585 37206.49941
0.215885947 33756.84211 95 7287.627827 26469.21428
0.243434343 4756.842105 95 1157.978735 3598.863371
0.584178499 131695.4023 87 76933.62244 54761.77986
0.422960725 1561.616162 99 660.502304 901.1138576
0.186423506 10431.57895 95 1944.691516 8486.887431
0.300101729 148389.3528 95 44531.90141 103857.4514
0.713414634 52912.63158 95 37748.6457 15163.98588
0.552763819 1439.393939 99 795.6448911 643.7490483
0.856710394 121916.6667 84 104447.2755 17469.39119
0.261044177 2997.894737 95 782.5829634 2215.311773
0.572387149 405564.2105 95 232139.7423 173424.4682
0.297679112 15146.46465 99 4508.786146 10637.6785
0.262096774 16787.36842 95 4399.91511 12387.45331
0.368902439 83291.57895 95 30726.46662 52565.11232
0.295247725 7324.210526 95 2162.456495 5161.754031
0.318781726 79449.47368 95 25327.04034 54122.43334
0.266666667 6347.368421 95 1692.631579 4654.736842
0.374747475 8042.424242 99 3013.878176 5028.546067
0.171573604 7701.052632 95 1321.297355 6379.755277
0.156882591 16039.39394 99 2516.301681 13523.09226
0.840242669 382305.2632 95 321229.1948 61076.06833
0.414314516 12130.52632 95 5025.853141 7104.673175
0.270896274 11280.28169 71 3055.786279 8224.495412
0.469758065 4322.340426 94 2030.454272 2291.886153
0.700604839 35177.77778 99 24645.72133 10532.05645
0.627530364 72997.84946 93 45808.36707 27189.48239
0.487551867 5208.080808 99 2539.209523 2668.871285
0.117527862 1495.789474 95 175.7969392 1319.992535
0.248219736 32680 95 8111.820956 24568.17904
0.315206445 9161.616162 99 2887.800462 6273.8157
0.306143001 9931.578947 95 3040.483384 6891.095564
0.314516129 4432.631579 95 1394.134126 3038.497453
0.174395161 15489.47368 95 2701.289261 12788.18442
0.46653144 71469.47368 95 33342.75649 38126.7172
0.285714286 31167.04545 88 8904.87013 22262.17532
0.324873096 129303.1579 95 42007.11729 87296.04061
0.149646107 11220 95 1679.029323 9540.970677
0.733805668 522562.1053 95 383459.0347 139103.0705
0.178787879 17144.21053 95 3065.177033 14079.03349
0.099597586 1712.087912 91 170.5198222 1541.56809
0.382591093 43618.94737 95 16688.22075 26930.72661
0.184024267 25017.89474 95 4603.899739 20413.995
0.353926702 10742.42424 99 3802.030779 6940.393463
0.365927419 11255.55556 99 4118.716398 7136.839158
0.587701613 421340 95 247622.1976 173717.8024
0.17611336 21236.84211 95 3740.091626 17496.75048
0.280203046 90007.07071 99 25220.25535 64786.81536
0.720321932 4358.947368 95 3139.845388 1219.10198
0.126390293 14861.05263 95 1878.2928 12982.75983
0.224469161 20261.25 80 4548.025784 15713.22422
0.25 13278.94737 95 3319.736842 9959.210526
0.154545455 5391.919192 99 833.2966024 4558.62259
0.603030303 127635.7895 95 76968.2488 50667.54067
0.437119675 77491.57895 95 33873.09384 43618.48511
0.24572004 4176.767677 99 1026.315522 3150.452155
0.205882353 39065.26316 95 8042.848297 31022.41486
0.232862903 7966.315789 95 1855.059423 6111.256367
0.179435484 6578.16092 87 1180.355488 5397.805432
0.533736153 7663.636364 99 4090.359791 3573.276572
0.369959677 3761.538462 91 1391.617556 2369.920906
0.300100705 4286.315789 95 1286.32639 2999.989399
0.329305136 14993.93939 99 4937.581251 10056.35814
0.292214358 9404.210526 95 2748.045341 6656.165185
0.405982906 3713.684211 95 1507.692308 2205.991903
0.35448137 23395.78947 95 8293.371495 15102.41798
0.275479314 16721.21212 99 4606.348041 12114.86408
0.62195122 19827.76618 95 12331.90336 7495.862824
0.310483871 4901.06383 94 1521.70127 3379.36256
0.365208545 5813.684211 95 2123.207153 3690.477057
0.437246964 47738.94737 95 20873.70978 26865.23759
0.204268293 16086.31579 95 3285.924262 12800.39153
0.616080402 4883.157895 95 3008.417879 1874.740016
0.232016211 15268.42105 95 3542.521197 11725.89986
0.365656566 3774.736842 95 1380.25731 2394.479532
0.403437816 10876.84211 95 4388.129424 6488.712682
0.393939394 6692.929293 99 2636.608509 4056.320784
0.39637827 11371.57895 95 4507.446786 6864.132161
0.265861027 3087.912088 91 820.9554796 2266.956608
0.446787149 9013.131313 99 4026.951239 4986.180074
0.283838384 15590.90909 99 4425.298439 11165.61065
0.247734139 3974.747475 99 984.6806433 2990.066831
0.28989899 11683.83838 99 3387.132946 8296.705438
0.15136226 15391.91919 99 2329.75568 13062.16351
0.621703854 88932.58427 89 55289.73038 33642.85389
0.617547807 56422.10526 95 34843.34734 21578.75792
0.366930917 26048.42105 95 9557.971032 16490.45002
0.303643725 8448.421053 95 2565.310036 5883.111016
0.352583587 88545.26316 95 31219.60646 57325.65669
0.475757576 12962.10526 95 6166.819777 6795.285486
0.1663286 17768.42105 95 2955.396605 14813.02445
0.121730382 10524.21053 95 1281.116171 9243.094356
0.141129032 11186.31579 95 1578.713922 9607.601868
0.211907164 18132.63158 95 3842.434542 14290.19704
0.302724521 4233.684211 95 1281.640023 2952.044187
0.288597376 12106.31579 95 3493.850975 8612.464815
0.451256281 1158.947368 95 522.9822798 635.9650886
0.20951417 9551.515152 99 2001.17777 7550.337382
0.545180723 3083.838384 99 1681.249239 1402.589144
0.687943262 108503.4091 86 74644.18923 33859.21986
0.704040404 48514.60674 89 34156.24333 14358.36341
0.204225352 2380 95 486.056338 1893.943662
0.405050505 6625.252525 99 2683.561881 3941.690644
0.324623116 4193.478261 92 1361.299978 2832.178283
0.395959596 28982.82828 99 11476.02898 17506.79931
0.203235592 12362.10526 95 2512.419775 9849.685488
0.596385542 2096.808511 94 1250.50628 846.3022302
0.524722503 12664.21053 95 6645.19624 6019.014286
0.603015075 3687.368421 95 2223.538746 1463.829675
0.608870968 968.4210526 95 589.6434635 378.7775891
0.254032258 8533.684211 95 2167.83107 6365.853141
0.327272727 4467.816092 87 1462.194357 3005.621735
0.343718593 4833.707865 89 1661.435266 3172.272599
0.547861507 4422.222222 99 2422.765332 1999.456891
0.401614531 21858.58586 99 8778.725703 13079.86016
0.329625885 16927.36842 95 5579.698792 11347.66963
0.269969666 11368.42105 95 3069.128838 8299.292214
0.195171026 8428.723404 94 1645.042596 6783.680808
0.311491935 3213.684211 95 1001.036715 2212.647496
0.389282103 31198.94737 95 12145.19185 19053.75552
0.375378406 3794.949495 99 1424.542091 2370.407404
0.463242699 4640 95 2149.446123 2490.553877
0.181634712 16251.57895 95 2951.850868 13299.72808
0.328298087 13476.84211 95 4424.421477 9052.420629
0.199389624 30452.63158 95 6071.938748 24380.69283
0.250758342 52841.05263 95 13250.33473 39590.7179
0.298086606 14875.78947 95 4434.273599 10441.51587
0.558350101 2805.263158 95 1566.318966 1238.944191
0.503524673 9473.737374 99 4770.26051 4703.476863
0.211907164 13307.36842 95 2819.926709 10487.44171
0.460921844 1460 95 672.9458918 787.0541082
0.302114804 2290.909091 99 692.1175501 1598.791541
0.163967611 14662.62626 99 2404.195804 12258.43046
0.293522267 36606.06061 99 10744.6939 25861.3667
0.264321608 3473.404255 94 918.0957981 2555.308457
0.432896065 5292.553191 94 2291.125448 3001.427743
0.438066465 4988.421053 95 2185.259978 2803.161075
0.259818731 9706.315789 95 2521.882652 7184.433137


Projection 2578427.232 2558692.713
% 50.19207765 49.80792235

[Poopadoop]

PA

%Biden totalvotes %counted B T
0.326572008 57818.94737 95 18882.04975 38936.89762
0.596544715 740412.5 89 441689.1641 298723.3359
0.174089069 35514.11765 85 6182.619671 29331.49798
0.409552846 96078.94737 95 39349.40629 56729.54108
0.16089613 27065.65657 99 4354.759407 22710.89716
0.45841785 210183.871 93 96352.03821 113831.8328
0.258585859 63429.21348 89 16401.89763 47027.31586
0.268565615 30280 95 8132.166836 22147.83316
0.494949495 397385.8824 85 196685.9418 200699.9406
0.333333333 115323.1579 95 38441.05263 76882.10526
0.31041456 72293.68421 95 22441.01219 49852.67202
0.263157895 2531.578947 95 666.2049861 1865.373961
0.266464032 31985.36585 85 8522.949564 23462.41629
0.521298174 87008.13953 86 45357.1843 41650.95523
0.583756345 319846.3158 95 186712.3163 133133.9995
0.24291498 20189.3617 94 4904.298389 15285.06331
0.24795082 39960 95 9908.114754 30051.88525
0.316109422 17972.63158 95 5681.318189 12291.31339
0.33877551 29957.57576 99 10148.89301 19808.68275
0.200404858 41990.27778 72 8415.055668 33575.22211
0.375 139292.2078 77 52234.57792 87057.62987
0.542046606 143297.9798 99 77674.18358 65623.79622
0.617558022 340980.7229 83 210575.3808 130405.3421
0.271341463 17232.63158 95 4675.927471 12556.70411
0.474111675 140933.7349 83 66818.32915 74115.40579
0.322482197 60569.47368 95 19532.57697 41036.89672
0.277439024 2605.050505 99 722.7426706 1882.307834
0.279918864 82693.68421 95 23147.52215 59546.16206
0.138383838 8134.736842 95 1125.716108 7009.020734
0.170879676 17695.89041 73 3023.868028 14672.02238
0.24137931 23501.05263 95 5672.667877 17828.38475
0.309403438 43340.86022 93 13409.81115 29931.04907
0.200406918 23315.78947 95 4672.6455 18643.14397
0.118541033 11703.7037 81 1387.369132 10316.33457
0.542510121 113532.3232 99 61592.43447 51939.88877
0.412778905 275580 95 113753.6105 161826.3895
0.348530902 46976.84211 95 16372.88114 30603.96097
0.336724313 72677.89474 95 24472.4142 48205.48054
0.487854251 183771.4286 77 89653.67264 94117.75593
0.426262626 155402.1053 95 66242.10952 89159.99575
0.289046653 61311.57895 95 17721.90669 43589.67225
0.265720081 19911.57895 95 5290.906373 14620.67257
0.285714286 60202.73973 73 17200.78278 43001.95695
0.210313448 21603.15789 95 4543.434623 17059.72327
0.485309017 79541.97531 81 38602.43787 40939.53744
0.629292929 512712.6316 95 322646.4338 190066.1978
0.391878173 10038.94737 95 3934.044349 6104.903019
0.502024291 174293.6842 95 87499.66333 86794.02088
0.305498982 42262.10526 95 12911.03012 29351.07514
0.241869919 24824.21053 95 6004.229782 18819.98074
0.801210898 816505.7143 70 654193.2766 162312.4377
0.404040404 33469.47368 95 13523.01967 19946.45401
0.191102123 9266.315789 95 1770.812623 7495.503166
0.298174442 72131.57895 95 21507.79332 50623.78563
0.289265537 19646.31579 95 5683.002081 13963.31371
0.21536906 41745.26316 95 8990.638071 32754.62509
0.256852792 3645.263158 95 936.2960192 2708.967139
0.289928789 22065.26316 95 6397.355036 15667.90812
0.163265306 20256.96203 79 3307.259106 16949.70292
0.374745418 20502.10526 95 7683.069997 12819.03527
0.289928789 27095.78947 95 7855.84944 19239.94003
0.298979592 21060 95 6296.510204 14763.4898
0.383215369 131897.8947 95 50545.30041 81352.59433
0.329959514 27716.16162 99 9145.211222 18570.95039
0.351926978 208963.8298 94 73540.00906 135423.8207
0.320773931 15222.10526 95 4882.85454 10339.25072
0.373727088 240613.6842 95 89923.85143 150689.8328


Projection 3508525.863 3570445.804
% 49.56264876 50.43735124

[oskar]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...53932022480896
lmfao if they stop the count, he loses. I wish there was a way for Biden to just agree to stop the vote and take the win.

[oskar]

Actually, I can post them here using spaces rather than tabs, then you can copy-paste them into excel, select row A and use text-to-columns with "space" as the delimiter. Should work.

I will do no such thing.

[Poopadoop]

If I were Rudy Guiliani I'd forget PA and get my ass down to Georgia, and rally the Trump truckers around those counting places. Biden's currently 115k behind in PA but only 14k behind in GA.

[Poopadoop]

I will do no such thing.

Haha then I guess we've reached an impasse, 'cause I'm not going to share my work Office account with you.

[oskar]

Unless there's something I don't know, I don't think anyone can see who shared a file when you go to file-share and then get the share link in the office.com excel.

Just fyi. Don't bother. I would import it if I cared enough :P

I trust your projection!

[Poopadoop]

I don't think anyone can see who shared a file when you go to file-share and then get the share link in the office.com excel.

Not really good at this sort of thing but when I go there I can see a whole bunch of my work coleagues' files plus who wrote them.

I trust your projection!

Well, I did miss 8 counties the first time around and no way to know how many typos there are, but thanks.

[OngBonga]

Kamala Harris has betting action. Did Biden just test positive for covid?

[Poopadoop]

They also do some weird things on the CNN site I'm using, like a county will decide they've actually counted 99% of the votes rather than 95% without counting any more votes. So there's some noise coming out of there too.

[OngBonga]

So...
Biden 1.11 Trump 9.6 Harris 430

[OngBonga]

That could literally be one person thinking 1000/1, I'll bet five bucks, then someone sees someone bet on Harris and thinks "wtf does he know" and bets £20, and suddenly the people offering those odds get nervous, offer shorter odds instead, and then we have the illusion of action.

[Poopadoop]

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1324420535242137603

lolz

[boost]

That could literally be one person thinking 1000/1, I'll bet five bucks, then someone sees someone bet on Harris and thinks "wtf does he know" and bets £20, and suddenly the people offering those odds get nervous, offer shorter odds instead, and then we have the illusion of action.

Yeah, betting lines as predictors are interesting, and can be useful, but as you've pointed out, it's important to understand how betting lines are set-- essentially it's another form of polling. Similar to polling, sample size is important, and also controlling for who chooses to participate. For example, I have a hunch that bettors skew to Trump supporters.

[boost]

poop:

Google sheets. Stop being such a boomer.

[Poopadoop]

poop:

Google sheets. Stop being such a boomer.

Boost and Oskar:

[MadMojoMonkey]

I mean... google sheets is a perfectly useful mid-capability spreadsheet that is easy to share.

[Poopadoop]

It's on my list for things to learn by Harris v. Ivanka 2024.

[Poopadoop]

Looks like Georgia's going to be needing a recount. Trump currently up only 3k votes. The spreadsheet never lies!

[Poopadoop]

PA looks like it might finish pretty close as well. My flat projection now has it ending up as a 46k margin for Trump (earlier it was 60k), but everywhere that more votes have come in since earlier today, the %Biden is going up. must be all those mail-ins.

Just depends how many ballots are left and from what counties if he can do it.

They appear to be taking the day off from counting in AZ and NV

[oskar]

It's on my list for things to learn by Harris v. Ivanka 2024.

I'll go with Buttigieg vs Trump Jr.
I think AOC is going to run, but the DNC will pull some bullshit and steal the nomination. Harris is just way too unpopular.

Trump JR, just because Ivanka actually looks presidential, and republicans historically always go with the maximally stupid candidate.

[Poopadoop]

Trump JR

Rudy Guiliani.

[Poopadoop]

Biden has taken the lead in Georgia! The Orange Menace is on the ropes!

[CoccoBill]

And PA. I'd pay some amount to be a fly on the WH wall to see him lose his shit.

[MadMojoMonkey]

The notion that winning an election wins an argument is why we got Trump in the first place.

I'm definitely glad to have such a charlatan out of office, but it doesn't change the fact that the people who support him have not been convinced to repudiate him.

[Poopadoop]

The notion that winning an election wins an argument is why we got Trump in the first place.

I'm definitely glad to have such a charlatan out of office, but it doesn't change the fact that the people who support him have not been convinced to repudiate him.

There are signs that Fox News is willing to bail on him if he loses. That would help a lot I think, though the very hardcore supporters will just look elsewhere to quell their cognitive dissonance.

It doesn't seem like anything violent is happening yet either, which is somewhat re-assuring.

[Poopadoop]

[oskar]

[oskar]

[oskar]

[Poopadoop]

They just called NV for Biden, so we can make that 279 for Biden now. Adding in GA and AZ would give him 306, which is two more than Trump got in 2016.

[oskar]

The notion that winning an election wins an argument is why we got Trump in the first place.

I'm definitely glad to have such a charlatan out of office, but it doesn't change the fact that the people who support him have not been convinced to repudiate him.

Oh definitely. I would barely call this a victory. This is way too close. It basically took divine intervention for Biden to win, and if dems don't adjust their strategy for 2024, republicans will take back the white house.

[CoccoBill]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/s...73707121778688

Total war eh. If you had the choice between

a) go to jail and declare personal bankruptcy, or
b) cause a civil war

which would you pick?

[oskar]

https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/s...73707121778688

wow
I'm trying to figure out how that tweet happened. Did someone ironically call for "total war" in Trump Jr's timeline, and he thought it sounded cool and said it... is it possible that he doesn't understand the implications?

[oskar]

You really think they didnt plan for this? For all the doomers, let me tell you a story. Donald John Trump has been planning his running for a long time, he has intelligence units all across the country. He has data no one else has, and has the resources to find the truth. This man won the election without a single GOP support. He knows they dont care.. But in the end he will prevail. Look at how quickly his team mobilized? Look at how quickly things are moving. Rudy? The man is a savage prosecutor... They already have this whole thing planned out until the end. You really think his son's are just tweeting "wait till you see what we found" for shits and giggles? PLEASE SPARE ME THE BS

https://thedonald.win/p/11PpKeSfPd/t...we-will-win/c/

I just love watching trumpists completely unravel.

[Poopadoop]

Don Jr. doing his best Goebbels impersonation

[Poopadoop]

https://thedonald.win/p/11PpKeSfPd/t...we-will-win/c/

I just love watching trumpists on completely unravel.

There were shades of this kind of thiking in Wuf before. I hope he hasn't completely gone over the edge like this guy.

[Poopadoop]

This does illustrate though why Trump would never be as big a threat as Hitler. Hitler at least managed to hire some competent people to do his bidding. Don't think anyone will get inspired to an act of "heroism" by listening to Don Jr.

Edit: (or Rudy Guiliani for that matter)

[MadMojoMonkey]

Wuf started distancing himself from Trump before year 2, IIRC.
The last time he defended Trump it was something like, "They keep throwing pickles at a window, hoping one will stick" around impeachment time, IIRC.

[MadMojoMonkey]

AP hasn't called NV, GA or PA, yet.

There's less than 2k votes between them in GA.
Biden's leading by 14k in PA with 98% of the votes counted.
About 20k between them in NV, but only 87% of the votes counted.


It's still mathematically possible for any or all of those to go to Trump.
That's unlikely, given the mail-in ballots being counted are from predominantly blue districts, but it's technically possible.

[Poopadoop]

Future pres. Rudy G.

[oskar]

Future pres. Rudy G.

We're living in an Interdimensional Cable episode.

[Poopadoop]

People on twitter getting upset that networks aren't calling the election for Biden yet. Like that would make it official lol.

[Keith]

anyone see the last leg tonight? speculating that trump could resign the presidency , pence takes over and issues an end of presidency pardon to trump like Ford did for Nixon.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Pardon for what?

He's not been convicted of anything.

[EDIT]Oh. Ford pardoned Nixon from "any crimes he may have committed while president."[/EDIT]

[Poopadoop]

Someone would have to convince him he's lost first.

[OngBonga]

It doesn't seem like anything violent is happening yet either, which is somewhat re-assuring.

Do you think there would be no violence if Trump won?

This isn't over. Trump odds have come in from 35/1 to currently 15/1, presumably because these fraud claims are starting to get credible, at least on the surface. I'm not interested in sticking my head down the rabbit hole, I'm happy to just get the popcorn out, but the kind of claims being made right now are easily provable, for example Feinstein owning the software used to count the ballots in MI. There are claims the software handed Biden 3k Trump votes (a 6K swing). At least this is directly provable by doing a human recount.

If there's evidence the software, owned by Feinstein, miscounted votes, favouring Biden, then I wouldn't start getting your hopes up yet. It's not yet time for the "Trump is over" party.

[OngBonga]

Even the BBC are calling it for Biden now. People still betting on Trump. You can get 20/1.

[CoccoBill]

Hah, FOX called it. Et tu, Brute.

[Poopadoop]

Do you think there would be no violence if Trump won?

I said "yet." And yeah, there'll be violence no matter who wins. It's a question of how much.

This isn't over. Trump odds have come in from 35/1 to currently 15/1, presumably because these fraud claims are starting to get credible, at least on the surface. I'm not interested in sticking my head down the rabbit hole, I'm happy to just get the popcorn out, but the kind of claims being made right now are easily provable, for example Feinstein owning the software used to count the ballots in MI. There are claims the software handed Biden 3k Trump votes (a 6K swing). At least this is directly provable by doing a human recount.

Each state has its own laws about recounts. They can request a recount in any state it's close, and many where it's not. It's hard to believe the Dems would be so stupid as to commit obvious, easily proven fraud such as you described. That's more the R style.

But, given Trump has done nothing to prevent a Russian incursion into their systems, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the machines were hacked.

[Poopadoop]

Even the BBC are calling it for Biden now.

It's kinda immaterial what the different news channels say, they have no authority in the matter. I don't know why anyone thinks it matterswhat they say. It's not like they get the information any faster than the rest of us.

People still betting on Trump. You can get 20/1.

So 5% of people are retarded and/or problem gamblers, is that the takeaway?

[Poopadoop]

Hah, FOX called it. Et tu, Brute.

[Poopadoop]

But...when your biggest allies start calling it, well, going to hard to miss that iceberg now.

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/sta...33262075940864

[Poopadoop]

Hahahahahaahaha

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...99845045071873

[Poopadoop]

Note the search term

https://twitter.com/search?q=loser&s...d_query&f=user

[OngBonga]

I said "yet." And yeah, there'll be violence no matter who wins. It's a question of how much.

I think if Trump won we would already be seeing riots.

It's hard to believe the Dems would be so stupid as to commit obvious, easily proven fraud such as you described. That's more the R style.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. The tactics being described are similar to tactics employed by Chavez, apparently. I mean I'm just basing that on shit I've read, I'm really not interested in fact checking. This is entertainment to me, not politics.

If they won fair and square, well done. If they cheated and got away with it, well done. If they cheated and get caught, then they're dumber than Trump. What will be interesting in that event is if the hoards of haters would want Trump gone at any cost, even if it means the end of democracy.

If I were going to bet, I wouldn't be putting my money on Trump. But nor would I take the shitty odds Biden currently has. You can win 4c on the dollar. Would you put your faith in the integrity of the Democratic party and stick a million on Biden right now? $40k clean profit.

[Poopadoop]

Is anyone betting on Kanye?

[CoccoBill]

Apparently oddmakers still giving Biden 1.04. If you're 100% it's all set and done, all-in.