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*** Official Global Warming Thread ***

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  1. #76
    we're in a cooling cycle now? Wait, wat? Sources plz.


    Wuf, I pretty much agree with everything you wrote. I think the problem though is that the selective breeding decisions are being made in corporate board rooms, not by farmers in their fields. The more you disconnect the farmer from the conception and from the end result (the consumer) the lower quality the produce will be imo. Aside from any financial success there is very little pride to be had from operating a factory farm.

    As for the nutrition, you are right a large part is from the soil quality. This is unrelated to GM practices, but factory farms tend to sell to insanely large markets. Strawberries in new york coming from california, avocados in australia coming from mexico, ect. This produce is picked green so that it can withstand the riggers of shipping. When something is picked before its ripe it is being detached from its source of nutrition, the soil. Also this direct impacts global warming since unnecessarily shipping a carrot an average of 1800 miles before it reaches the consumers plate wastes insane amounts of fossil fuels.
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  2. #77
    boost, here's your current cooling cycle

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y15UG...eature=channel

    It's about 1998 being the second warmest year on record and 2008 being cooler than that (despite being in the top ten warmest years on record). Deniers fail to acknowledge that 1998 was also the biggest el nino on record, and 2008 was in a la nina

    The next decade is going to be crazy hot. Even now when we have la nina we're still in super warm years, so when we go through another el nino we're going to shit our pants it'll be so hot

    Oh, and would any deniers like to explain this data on the arctic sea ice to me?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dpp2-...eature=related
  3. #78
    greenman just made another video today on the 1998 'global cooling'

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QwnrpwctIh4
  4. #79
    Nope. No anthropogenic global warming here



    And we're not in what will likely turn out as the hottest oceanic year since pre-industry (which is way more significant than atmospheric temperature records)

    http://www.physorg.com/print169993833.html
  5. #80
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  6. #81
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow
    The Val Kimmer line was gold.
    ya, I luld
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  7. #82
    a500lbgorilla's Avatar
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    LOL wufwugy, you dumbass.

    I was surfing my favorite website for getting just the facts, http://conservativekids.net/
    Quote Originally Posted by cracked.com
    The right-wing website with all the "right" moves! Where you can learn about things like:

    Immigration: "Democrats want to legalize these criminals because they want a new under-class of welfare recipients to vote for them."

    Abortion: "...simply the killing of an unborn baby that is alive in its mother."

    Liberals: "Liberals don't think people are capable of choosing their own lifestyle, so they pass laws that tell people what they can and can't eat and drink, where they can live, what they can listen to on the radio or watch on TV, what kinds of cars they will drive and how parents should raise their kids ."
    Where I found this eye-opening expose.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLcvC...layer_embedded

    God do I feel stupid believing obscure charts, maps and graphs. (Fear-based obscure charts, maps and graphs based on the fear-mongering tactics of fear-mongers!) John Stossel and the conservativekids have it right! Give me a break!

    Play me out, youtube commenter robsher.

    "libs think they have the ability to change the climate.HAHA
    enough said "
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  8. #83
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    twenty years ago people were bitching about the ozone layer

    twenty years from now people will be bitching about something else, because they will no longer need to shovel the snow off their driveway


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  9. #84
    Scientists have discovered that one of the worst things for the ozone layer is nitrous oxide. Therefore, I conclude that if we kill all dentists, Vin Diesel and those bastards from Pimp My Ride, the earth will be saved.

    Ok, now, srsly, I think we all know there is a problem and those that don't won't be convinced by a stranger posting in a poker forum. So, what should be done at the personal level, wuf?
  10. #85
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    I for one am trying to control my personal gas emissions..
  11. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by HalvSame
    I for one am trying to control my personal gas emissions..
    Not a good idea, imo. Statistics have proven this will only serve to increase worldwide levels of CDB*. That, in turn, has a snowball effect as increased CDB leads to the very activities that lead to high CO2 (king dons...forest fires for fun...driving fast...pot...internet porn (which requires AC to be truly enjoyable) etc).



    *= Crankiness Due to Bloat
  12. #87
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    To the death of billions of people due to global warming I say good riddance. It's part of the solution to a bigger problem: Over-population.
  13. #88
    flomo's Avatar
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    Will this global warming thing lower the number of bars on my cell phone?
  14. #89
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    you dont get it. By the time the ice caps mealt, There. Won't. Be. Cell phones.

    We'll have moved on to sunglass personal displays for chatting with one another.
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  15. #90
    flomo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
    you dont get it. By the time the ice caps mealt, There. Won't. Be. Cell phones.

    We'll have moved on to sunglass personal displays for chatting with one another.
    thank you for your response, i feel better now.

    will porn be included on these sunglasses or will that be an upgrade?
  16. #91
    a500lbgorilla's Avatar
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    porn will be the main reason for the innovation.
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  17. #92
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  18. #93
    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
    porn will be the main reason for the innovation.
    Subscribe me for the Jenna Haze ocular feed, pls. There are hotter girls, but she has gusto.
  19. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
    Scientists have discovered that one of the worst things for the ozone layer is nitrous oxide. Therefore, I conclude that if we kill all dentists, Vin Diesel and those bastards from Pimp My Ride, the earth will be saved.

    Ok, now, srsly, I think we all know there is a problem and those that don't won't be convinced by a stranger posting in a poker forum. So, what should be done at the personal level, wuf?
    It's hard to say. The reason is that individuals cannot solve this problem. Like I said about Al Gore, his carbon footprint is colossally high, but contrarily, he may go down in history as being one of the most important persons to ever live. That may be laughable now, but when we're at 3-4C above pre-industrial, tons of people are going to be thinking 'why didn't anybody warn us?????'

    So, here's what I think: if you want to make a difference, it's at the political level. Do what you can to change the political climate. This is much harder than most would think though since we already have a President and Secretary of Energy who understand the problem rather well, but little is being done due to corporatocracy and dumbfuckery. Even the cap and trade bill is by itself quite worthless. However, in certain ways it's easier.

    Honestly, I think the best thing that individuals can do on a realistic level is to contribute to campaigns in close races against staunch supporters of dirty energy lobby and superstitious retards. As a side point, this is basically what happened to Jim Leach. He was one of the primary movers in the UIGEA, he was up for reelection in a very close race, and he lost because of the influx of money and votes that his opponent received from poker players. Even Leach acknowledges that it was because of poker and UIGEA that he lost. Nate Silver over on 538.com has written about how he was one of the many poker players to donate to Leach's opponent just because of UIGEA.

    This is going to be a very long fight, and the corporate lobby has learned from its mistakes from previous battles (like tobacco, even some of the people involved with oil corporations currently have been outed as having worked with tobacco back then)

    Now on a strictly personal level

    - don't fly
    - go vegan
    - use public transportation
    - buy local
    - don't waste anything you've bought
    - don't use as much AC or heating
    - short showers

    There are lots of things, but they're also quite burdensome for all but the hardcore. Even though I am a huge proponent of fighting AGW, I still won't personally advocate for individuals to delete from their luxuries to help the fight (because it ultimately does not work, plus it sucks). The solution is for enough investment to be placed in developing cheap and scalable renewables to become the best economic choice, then we'll see everybody start using them at the very base of energy

    Now for rather simple things that can be done that aren't much of a pain

    - paint your roof white or next time shingles are replaced get white ones
    - get well insulated windows
    - call your energy company and ask them if they offer energy from renewables, then ask for yours to come from that exclusively (will be more expensive, but in some places only by like a couple dollars a month, or so I've heard)

    Not all these things are created equal though. Air travel is substantially more GHG intensive than anything else. Eating meat regularly is probably number two on the list. Color of roof is also a big player. If all roofs had always been white there probably wouldn't even be any doomsaying at this point.

    But really, the thing that is going to change things is economy and peak oil. Eventually (sooner than most think) fossil fuels are just going to be too expensive, and will absolutely devastate the global economy. If you think the crisis of 08 was bad, this is going to be waaaaaaaaaaay worse, and it may even come on before we fully recover from the current recession. IMO, there's an argument to be made about consuming as much energy as you possibly can so as to make the price of oil too high more quickly so renewables begin to replace them. The sooner the better due to lag effects of climate change.

    But we're not even in the worst of creating AGW. Lots of very dirty methods of making oil are not in use due to expense, but you can be damn sure that they will once oil sits high enough. Even around 100$ a barrel as standard should be enough to open up a whole plethora of extra dirty sources. But modernization and exponential growth in consumption will make sure that we use up all those sources quite quickly. Keep in mind that the last doubling time of consumption consumes equivalent to slightly more than the entire previous consumption, and only a decade ago the global oil consumption was working on a doubling time of around 12-15 years.

    But that's not what's actually going to happen since in the last doubling time consumption will plummet due to price (and that's when economies will become devastated), and we'll see exponential decrease instead of increase in consumption.

    Okay so I know my posts are super long and I rabbit trail all the time, so I'll just answer the question succinctly: put money into the right political races, and be cognizant of your energetic consumption.

    We're in a catch 22. Simply living a modern life means carbon footprint is huge due to that modern life being based in oil. If you wanted to be truly carbon neutral you would either have to be carbon negative in enough ways to counteract the plethora of carbon consumption that comes from living in modern society, or you could become like Chris McCandless, or you could go on a killing spree

    Seriously, this is how bad it is, somebody who goes on a fucking killing spree has done more for mother earth than most of us. It's so stupid. But a lot of things that just seem 'wrong' are actually great for the climate. Simply not having a child means that carbon footprint is much lower than anybody with children. But that's obviously not something that you want to tell people.
  20. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew
    To the death of billions of people due to global warming I say good riddance. It's part of the solution to a bigger problem: Over-population.
    I watched a video the other day of a chicken factory that claimed to go through mid six figures of chickens everyday. EVERYDAY! And I think this was all just for American egg consumption, and we're not even close to being as densely populated as many other places (even though per capita consumption is way higher than anywhere else)

    If the world population was never above 500 million or something I think that we would possibly never be talking about global warming. We're looking at about 12-14 billion or something in 2050.

    I'm not the most clued in on over-population, but I think that it mostly boils down to oil culture, and if we were on 100% renewables, then the Earth could support a gigantic middle class. Even though currently about 15-20% (stat pulled from ass) of population is middle class or above

    While global warming will exterminate billions in the future, it won't be the ones who deserve it. It will be the poor, starving, and oppressed. My hope, in part, is that it's so bad that the fuckers responsible for it also become exterminated. This would very likely happen if we stayed on business as usual long enough (which isn't that long, actually). Climate panels have actually been beginning to come out saying that our current course is even worse than worst case scenario projections, and that course heads straight into areas speculated to breed mass extinction events like oceanic/atmospheric anoxia, or simply just too hot for mammals to survive.

    What it boils down to is that this is actually an experiment. We don't know how far it can go, we have no data that is exactly like our current situation, and we are unable to rule out total apocalypse. The story the geologic history of Earth is wrought with very dramatic climate change, mostly caused by some triggered feedback loop, but we cannot rule out that this method could push things further than ever before, and we could even turn out to be like Venus (which word around science is that Venus' climate was once much more mild like Earth)

    There is a part of me that hopes AGW kills us all. I loathe the fact that billions of humans have lived/live in misery, and a small number of the lucky ones (us and our neighbors) live in relatively happy lives, yet never stop complaining, and do our best to further oppress the suffering. I would love for everybody to be able to live in happiness, but that is simply a pipe dream

    Honestly, I do not believe that the suffering of just one person is worth the happiness of a trillion people. If a magic genie sky daddy came down from heaven, told me that if I wasn't honest he'd kill me, and asked me what was better: a world where .00001% of the population lived in misery, or no world at all, I would choose no world at all.

    Got pick up that wpp to 200 imo
  21. #96
    paint your roof white or next time shingles are replaced get white ones
    they had some french dude on NPR the other day talking about this and I was stunned by the difference it would make and the fact that no one anywhere has a white roof. Is there a black shingles lobby out there? We did our roof 4 years ago and I'm pissed no one told me.
  22. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy
    paint your roof white or next time shingles are replaced get white ones
    they had some french dude on NPR the other day talking about this and I was stunned by the difference it would make and the fact that no one anywhere has a white roof. Is there a black shingles lobby out there? We did our roof 4 years ago and I'm pissed no one told me.
    silver roofs on apartment and commerical buildings hasnt been taht uncommon, and now its pretty much the norm for new roofs I think. But ya its crazy how such a simple thing like roof color can make such an impact. A lot of this stuff is actually good for building owners too. A highrise with intelligent design to offset the sun heating interiors through large windows can save insane amounts of money.
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  23. #98
    It's a shame ppl don't think about this stuff when they build houses anymore. They used to...white or light grey roofs were common on houses before A/C. Windows were placed to maximize cross breezes and porches and overhangs were built to shade the largest windows, etc. etc.

    Combine that sensibility with current insulation methods and you could have a hell of a house.
  24. #99
    Very, very likely IMO that in a few decades, when the govt finally realizes that it's now or never, the first thing they will do is mandate the painting of all asphalt and public buildings white
  25. #100
    a500lbgorilla's Avatar
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    The govt will never finally realize anything. We've got a good system running. No matter what happens, we just print enough money to get through it. If that doesn't work, we'll just use the money to convince people the money is working.
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  26. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
    we'll just use the money to convince people the money is working.
    rofflelamow
  27. #102
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy
    Very, very likely IMO that in a few decades, when the govt finally realizes that it's now or never, the first thing they will do is mandate the painting of all asphalt and public buildings white
    But the acid rain will just turn them black again.
  28. #103
    Quote Originally Posted by BennyLaRue
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy
    Very, very likely IMO that in a few decades, when the govt finally realizes that it's now or never, the first thing they will do is mandate the painting of all asphalt and public buildings white
    But the acid rain will just turn them black again.
    It is entirely possible that with the advent of biotechnology, you will live to age 150 and beyond, and one day on the news you will see reporting that the majority of the ocean bed is anoxic, all marine life is dead, the anoxia will begin seeping into the atmosphere, and scientists say there is absolutely nothing that can be done, and we better tell our loved ones that we love them.

    I wonder how many people will be saying its jaysus com back frum teh hayvens to rapshur his paypel
  29. #104
    Peak oil finally getting full front page coverage in UK

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/sc...t-1766585.html

    The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.

    Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries.
    What's kind of interesting is that I believe that Iraq wells are estimated to be the last ones which are going to peak, and US govt was probably well aware of this in 2002.

    Also, it's sorta misleading when the articles says the estimation is that production will peak in ~10 years because peak is/will not be linear, we likely already hit a peak production that we will not go above, but due to oil price spike dropped demand, and the scientist who predicted all this stuff first and accurately predicted US production peak claims that due to price structuring, oil companies will be able to create about a decade long artificial plateau, which I speculate we are currently in
  30. #105
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy
    It is entirely possible that with the advent of biotechnology...
    Right, you have a hard time with sarcasm. Let me retry.

    But ze acid rain, she will turn ze buildings to ze black agan!
  31. #106
    You have a hard time with me knowing it was sarcasm yet not caring cause me r in information mode
  32. #107
    lol wuf ftw..
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  33. #108
    Jack Sawyer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy
    Peak oil finally getting full front page coverage in UK

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/sc...t-1766585.html

    I still remember people believing oil supplies to be "infinite".

    Conlusion: people are unbelievably dumb, and will simply select what to believe at any given point in time, not giving a damn about all the evidence and proof that is brought to the table.
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  34. #109
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Sawyer
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy
    Peak oil finally getting full front page coverage in UK

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/sc...t-1766585.html

    I still remember people believing oil supplies to be "infinite".

    Conlusion: people are unbelievably dumb, and will simply select what to believe at any given point in time, not giving a damn about all the evidence and proof that is brought to the table.

    mmmm tits..
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  35. #110
    I read that book by Mackay this weekend, very informative, thanks for posting it. I think a lot of his policy suggestions are questionable because he tends to ignore the question of cost, but he's definitely on the right track by doing an actual cost-benefit analysis, it's kind of sad how rare that is.

    Most of the environmental debate is on the level of this editorial from the WSJ yesterday, where they just cite one negative effect of something and throw out some huge-sounding numbers to make it sound really important.
  36. #111
    Technologies that automatically reduce emissions (and increase efficiency) are being created every day, with or without help. In 100 years cars will be incredibly cheap, clean, and likely use alternate power sources, like electricity or nuclear power.

    Currently the US Navy powers its submarines with a nuclear power pack that requires no maintenance or fuel for 40 years and is the size of a human being.

    100 years ago we feared we would run out of hay for horses. Today we worry about fuel for cars. Exactly the same ridiculous fear -- why do we assume that gasoline power and coal power is what we'll use in 100 years?
  37. #112
    Quote Originally Posted by Lyric
    Technologies that automatically reduce emissions (and increase efficiency) are being created every day, with or without help. In 100 years cars will be incredibly cheap, clean, and likely use alternate power sources, like electricity or nuclear power.

    Currently the US Navy powers its submarines with a nuclear power pack that requires no maintenance or fuel for 40 years and is the size of a human being.

    100 years ago we feared we would run out of hay for horses. Today we worry about fuel for cars. Exactly the same ridiculous fear -- why do we assume that gasoline power and coal power is what we'll use in 100 years?
    We don't. The problem is periodic disruption. Imagine there's a massive food shortage, but people are saying it's not a problem because in a year it'll be all fixed. Would you be foolish enough to agree with their logic, or would you realize that due to the periodic disruption of supply, many people are going to die from starvation? AGW and peak oil are issues because their disruption capacity are immense.

    Also, many of us, and me specifically, are not talking about the future of tech. Like I linked before, it's analogous to WWII. The Nazis claimed that their wunderwaffe (wonder weapons) were going to win the war for them. While the wunderwaffe would have won the war, they were too advanced and not scalable at the time they needed them, and they lost the war. The fact that German wunderwaffe technology and predictions played major roles in the development of weapons in the decades following has no bearing on the fact that they were unable to help the Germans when they most needed them. AGW and peak oil are the exact same. While a hundred years from now we'll have amazing tech and possibly to a large scale, that will be long after shit hits the fan and the climate gets screwed from warming and economies fail from fuel prices

    Oil is running out, and very quickly. In fact it's running out WAY faster than the human brain is meant to perceive. Fast forward to 3:25, a professor explains why http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFyOw...eature=channel

    We'll not use it all due to extraction expense because after we begin falling from peak we'll experience exponential decrease in consumption, prices will skyrocket, and economies will see disruption on scales that pale the Great Depression

    This all, however, can be avoided by scaling renewables before oil gets too expensive. We can also avoid climate catastrophe as well by changing energy sources quickly enough (actually, no matter what we're already stuck with relatively 'small' catastrophe, what we want is to avoid more than that). The frightening thing is that scientists are not telling us that we are actually on course to do that. They're telling us it's possible, but that we're treading ahead a full speed into calamity. In fact, it's so bad that every year or so panels like the IPCC come out saying that the previous worst case scenario now looks like it's the most likely scenario. And on top of that, a huge number of known largely deleterious factors have not yet been factored in to any models simply because they are not understood enough to have a small enough margin of error.

    One of these factors is methane seeping out of permafrost. It is currently happening, scientists believe that it's happening more quickly now due to climate, and they all say that if they're correct then it's the most frightening aspect of AGW since emissions to date pale in comparison to what would happen if there is a triggered feedback loop of melting permafrost (which may have already happened)

    As a note on feedback loops: this is the story of climate change throughout geologic history. Many times in the past, long before hominids were around, conditions triggered a certain positive feedback loop, and that loop then changed the entire climate. This is standard geology and evolution. Feedback loops are how we even got an oxygen rich atmosphere 2.5 billion years ago thus making the earth hospitable to complex life
  38. #113
    Halv's Avatar
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    This is some scary shit. What time is it now?
  39. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lyric
    Technologies that automatically reduce emissions (and increase efficiency) are being created every day, with or without help. In 100 years cars will be incredibly cheap, clean, and likely use alternate power sources, like electricity or nuclear power.

    Currently the US Navy powers its submarines with a nuclear power pack that requires no maintenance or fuel for 40 years and is the size of a human being.

    100 years ago we feared we would run out of hay for horses. Today we worry about fuel for cars. Exactly the same ridiculous fear -- why do we assume that gasoline power and coal power is what we'll use in 100 years?
    I totally get this mentality. It's just that its like a level-1 bullshit detector. Like the first sniff of global warming sets off bs alarms but I dont think its fair to anyone to assume that once you can say "LOL SCIENTISTS SAID ICE AGE IN THE 80s" that negates everything else. Because my level-2 bullshit detector says that detractors of global warming have a vested interested financially in smothering these flames.
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  40. #115
    Quote Originally Posted by HalvSame
    This is some scary shit. What time is it now?
    Since that aspect of the video was primarily about exponential growth, we can't precisely analogize his paradigm to our current scenario. This is because when we begin to drop from peak we will see exponential deletion, not growth.

    As far as strictly how many reserves we have, I speculate that it is now 11:59 with a doubling time of something between 1-3 decades. I honestly do not know what our doubling time is right now because growth has slowed, but it's definitely not really long. But that doesn't even matter because the problem isn't running out of oil altogether, but running out of cheap oil. We can't actually know until we're past it, but we're likely at plateau of cheap oil currently, and it will only be downhill after the plateau. We will possibly see a small spike after the recession back up to pre-recession production levels, but it won't get much higher than that, and then it's only a matter of time.

    I can't predict what it will be like though. It's possible that we could see another 2-3 decades of pseudo-plateau. I don't know the current doubling time, we haven't gotten into unconventional fuels or coal to liquid fuels, and there's a lot of those, but none of that voids the fact that we're on the last straw of doubling time

    And actually, the sooner oil production drops the better. Unconventional fossil fuels are super dirty, and if we did into them we'll just be pushing AGW like 2-3x faster than ever before.
  41. #116
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    I think this needs to be crossposted here, since people who disagree with global warming typically don't watch documentaries. That's a fact, look it up.

    http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...70.html#939670
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  42. #117
    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q...I5MGY4ZWI5OWM=

    Is this true? I know National Review is a pretty partisan publication so I'm taking what they say with a grain of salt, but wow that would be pretty embarrassing if it's true.
  43. #118
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZTBiMTRlMDQxNzEyMmRhZjU3ZmYzODI5MGY4ZWI5OWM=

    Is this true? I know National Review is a pretty partisan publication so I'm taking what they say with a grain of salt, but wow that would be pretty embarrassing if it's true.
    In the last few paragraphs you see that the author jumps to conclusions. He sees one ambiguous explanation, assumes why, then ends on the note that these questions need to be answered. He is also a conflict of interest (fellow at Cato Institute), and is criticized about publishing very little scientific literature, and instead sticking with the popular media

    This is really the only part of the article that means anything. The rest is the author saying stuff

    Since the 1980s, we have merged the data we have received into existing series or begun new ones, so it is impossible to say if all stations within a particular country or if all of an individual record should be freely available. Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues. We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (i.e., quality controlled and homogenized) data.
    As to exactly what this means, I don't know. It could be completely legitimate protocol, for all I know. What I do know is that fraud in science is retarded since it's one of the last things you'll get away with, if the author's conjecture is true then it's extremely likely the story will get much more action in reputable sources, and even if the conjecture is true, it doesn't cast any doubt on global warming because it's only one marginal piece of the entire picture. For example: biologists wouldn't think much any differently about evolution if we'd never discovered Australopithecus

    Also, like you said, the publication is partisan. That alone is reason enough to disregard everything they have to say unless independently and adequately verified
  44. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy
    Since the 1980s, we have merged the data we have received into existing series or begun new ones, so it is impossible to say if all stations within a particular country or if all of an individual record should be freely available. Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues. We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (i.e., quality controlled and homogenized) data.
    As to exactly what this means, I don't know.
    Isnt this just the same old political tactic that so frustrates people who want answers without all the bs.

    They're muddying the waters hoping that people just throw their hands in the air, as frustrated as they are lost. Good thing the author is around to then grab your hand and guide you to his ideology.
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  45. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lyric
    Technologies that automatically reduce emissions (and increase efficiency) are being created every day, with or without help. In 100 years cars will be incredibly cheap, clean, and likely use alternate power sources, like electricity or nuclear power.

    Currently the US Navy powers its submarines with a nuclear power pack that requires no maintenance or fuel for 40 years and is the size of a human being.

    100 years ago we feared we would run out of hay for horses. Today we worry about fuel for cars. Exactly the same ridiculous fear -- why do we assume that gasoline power and coal power is what we'll use in 100 years?
    I like this idea. It's a ridiculous fear since it's a problem someone else will solve. It's crazy to worry about my house burning down, the fire department'll put the fire out. In 100 years, I bet we'll have invented past our need for stuff that burns!
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  46. #121
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    That's a double response to 1 post, Lyric. I bet you won't read either of them.
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  47. #122
    ya, like wuf said, even if this is true, what does it change? If the poles arent hotter, then why are they melting?
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  48. #123
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy
    ...even if the conjecture is true, it doesn't cast any doubt on global warming because it's only one marginal piece of the entire picture. For example: biologists wouldn't think much any differently about evolution if we'd never discovered Australopithecus
    Quote Originally Posted by boost
    ya, like wuf said, even if this is true, what does it change? If the poles arent hotter, then why are they melting?
    This isn't a marginal piece of evidence, it's the primary study that's been used by the IPCC to construct historical temperature comparisons. It would be a big blow if graphs like the ones you posted earlier turned out to be unverifiable or fraudulent.



    Global warming is most likely still a reality because we do have reliable data that show the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has gone up and in theory that should raise temperatures. But climate science is so hard to model that without solid data showing actual long-term temperature increases it would be harder to convince society of the necessity of major policy changes that will hurt the economy. I think it's silly to compare it to Australopithecus.

    Also, like you said, the publication is partisan. That alone is reason enough to disregard everything they have to say unless independently and adequately verified
    Of course.
  49. #124
    The problem is that it doesn't appear that the 'issue' is one of fraud or antipodal data or even incorrect data, but of no longer having the raw data from which the quality-controlled data was gathered. The data is still legit, it's just not known exactly the origins of each factor in creating the data due to eliminating the raw numbers. This could be something as trivial as adding a bunch of numbers together, but instead of using the specific decimal numbers you round each figure up or down. The end results would still be the same, but you would no longer have the exact originals of each individual number.

    we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues
    ^^ This is a key statement. Just because they discarded the originals doesn't mean that they made stuff up. The adjusted data would most definitely still reflect the raw data. In fact, the adjusted, quality-controlled data is probably the kind of data that everybody uses to explain anything about climate.

    Not to mention that this is from a partisan popular publication. If it gets no action in peer-reviewed journals it's worthless.

    On top of that, the article doesn't give exact dates, but implies that this supposed issue took place in a finite area for a finite time period on a finite issue. This is why I mentioned Australopithecus. If we found that 5 years of climate data were completely fraudulent, it wouldn't really change anything because the other 99% of data wasn't shown to be fraudulent and the theory still fit.

    But really, popular media says anything and everything at some point in time. This source is without merit. The 'problem' even seems to be completely fabricated. If I was a professional scientist I could probably very easily explain why quality-controlled, homogenized, adjusted over an entire series of collections data is completely standard. When the qualified scientific community says one thing and the unqualified out of work scientist, an economist, and a mathematician say another, I'm gonna just go ahead and stick with the former. If this article was talking about a bunch of skeptical geophysicists instead of entirely irrelevant individuals, it would have a starting point
  50. #125
    Finally they're coming out with more realistic estimates (4C warming by 2070)

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8279654.stm

    Still an underestimate IMO, either way it's terribad. And it's lolbad that govts are still yammering about keeping below 2C. It's this stupid denialism and catering to ignorance that determines that we will cruise beyond that target no sweat
  51. #126
    Looks like when we look back, approximately 2007 will be the time that we determine that the worst of all feedback loops was triggered IMO

    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...25_arctic.html

    Unusually high temperatures in the Arctic and heavy rains in the tropics likely drove a global increase in atmospheric methane in 2007 and 2008 after a decade of near-zero growth, according to a new study.
    Can't wait until they begin to actually model this and factor it into estimates. And now that we're in el nino in the record breaking oceanic temperature year...
  52. #127
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    I was reading 2+2 earlier (Science, Math, and Philosophy) and came across a topic dealing with nanotechnology. I got sidetracked a bit, as usual, and found a good read:

    How nanotechnology could be used in the future (or now) to help with the global warming problem: http://www.qsinano.com/pdf/ForbesWol...t_July2006.pdf
  53. #128
    That's cool. Tech is infant though, but cool nonetheless

    And I look forward to the day that rhetoric actually matches reality. Like everybody's all about reducing emissions, but reality is that's not gonna do shit. It's possible that emissions could be eliminated overnight, yet the earth would continue warming to catastrophic temperatures due to natural lengthy heating and feedback of GHG

    I started this thread claiming the only hope will ultimately boil down to artificial trees, but I take that back. I now suspect that it will be about artificial oceanic 'trees', not atmospheric ones. The story of climate change is all about the oceans, and things are looking really bad for them. Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are said to be in runaway melt mode due to ocean temp, and the most recent estimates I've seen is that the Arctic will be acidic by 2020, and the entire ocean by 2100. This is the worst news I've seen so far

    IMO, if we're gonna fix the situation, it will either boil down to some unknown natural barrier which will stop warming before mass extinction is triggered (very doubtful), or we're gonna have to mass manufacture GHG capture and sequester machines straight from the oceans and atmosphere. And we don't currently have the tech to do this. In fact, we're not even close to tech for the oceans AFAIK

    I dunno why, but I love me a good doomsday scenario. I really hope the human race gets its act together, but I very much doubt it will happen in time
  54. #129
    Here's a pretty great blog post from climateprogress with a whole bunch of predictions on peak oil

    http://climateprogress.org/2009/10/0...hat-will-very/
  55. #130
    Hey guys after a pretty long hiatus from posting much on FTR I logged in and saw this thread and was overcome with the retardation of people who actually believe that human caused global warming is an actual threat to the world.
  56. #131
    Quote Originally Posted by mcatdog
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy
    ...even if the conjecture is true, it doesn't cast any doubt on global warming because it's only one marginal piece of the entire picture. For example: biologists wouldn't think much any differently about evolution if we'd never discovered Australopithecus
    Quote Originally Posted by boost
    ya, like wuf said, even if this is true, what does it change? If the poles arent hotter, then why are they melting?
    This isn't a marginal piece of evidence, it's the primary study that's been used by the IPCC to construct historical temperature comparisons. It would be a big blow if graphs like the ones you posted earlier turned out to be unverifiable or fraudulent.



    Global warming is most likely still a reality because we do have reliable data that show the atmospheric concentration of CO2 has gone up and in theory that should raise temperatures. But climate science is so hard to model that without solid data showing actual long-term temperature increases it would be harder to convince society of the necessity of major policy changes that will hurt the economy. I think it's silly to compare it to Australopithecus.

    Also, like you said, the publication is partisan. That alone is reason enough to disregard everything they have to say unless independently and adequately verified
    Of course.
    Co2 levels historically go up after temperature rises. So temperature increases cause Co2 to rise not vice versa.
  57. #132
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    oh sweet, an intelligent man of the opposite opinion. This should get good.
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  58. #133
    Rilla how you been? You graduate from Va Tech yet?
  59. #134
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    undergrad I did, what have you been up do?
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  60. #135
    In last year of undergrad, just took the LSAT few weekends ago so going to law school after this year. Other than that just playing poker and living life.
  61. #136
    It's not like it's some kind of secret that the vast majority disagrees with science
  62. #137
    Science either is or isn't, faith/religion on the other hand........
  63. #138
    Whoa this is pretty much the worst news I've read on the subject since I first started reading.

    Just published in the online edition of Science

    http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1178296

    The CO2 content of the atmosphere has varied cyclically between ~180 and ~280 ppmv over the last 800,000 years, closely coupled with temperature and sea level. For earlier periods in Earth’s history, pCO2 is much less certain and the relationship between pCO2 and climate remains poorly constrained. We use boron/calcium ratios in foraminifera to estimate pCO2 during major climate transitions of the last 20 million years (myr). During the Middle Miocene, when temperatures were ~3 to 6°C warmer and sea level 25 to 40 meters higher than present, pCO2 was similar to modern levels. Decreases in pCO2 were synchronous with major episodes of glacial expansion during the Middle Miocene (~14 to 10 million years ago; Ma) and Late Pliocene (~3.3 to -2.4 Ma).
    And their press release

    http://www.climate.ucla.edu/news/art...?parentid=4676

    "The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today — and were sustained at those levels — global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland," said the paper's lead author, Aradhna Tripati, a UCLA assistant professor in the department of Earth and space sciences and the department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences.
    "A slightly shocking finding," Tripati said, "is that the only time in the last 20 million years that we find evidence for carbon dioxide levels similar to the modern level of 387 parts per million was 15 to 20 million years ago, when the planet was dramatically different.
    Some projections show carbon dioxide levels rising as high as 600 or even 900 parts per million in the next century if no action is taken to reduce carbon dioxide, Tripati said. Such levels may have been reached on Earth 50 million years ago or earlier


    These projections actually make an even worse prediction that the ones I've been making, and mine have been very dire.

    It makes complete sense though. Fossil fuels are a very gradual collection of carbon normally sequestered into living beings which were never really atmospheric except maybe when the Earth was very young, and when we burn them, we release all this 'unnatural' material into the atmosphere all at once.

    For a while, I've speculated that Fermi's Paradox (basically the question of why we don't see extraterrestrial beings anywhere) is because all species of advanced intelligence did the same thing we're doing, and thus cooked themselves to death, and so there really never has been chance for super advanced societies in the first place. It's actually a rather plausible scenario since planets with advanced species would also very likely have loads of fossil fuels, and they would very likely get discovered, and they would very likely get exploited, etc...

    Anyways, this is the first bit of material I've seen that puts a very strong case for AGW taking us further than we ever imagined
  64. #139
    weeeeeee no more winter! I hate the fucking winter!
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  65. #140
    Arctic almost out of multiyear ice. Predictions that Arctic Summer will be ice free sometime between 2020-2030

    http://climateprogress.org/2009/11/0...-david-barber/

    Meanwhile, everything being done about AGW so far by those with the power is equivalent to bringing a potato gun to a howitzer fight. You heard it here first, we will not see the dramatic "WWII" policy changes needed until several decades from now when a coalition of maybe a dozen or so modern countries declare carbon emissions illegal, and place gigantic embargoes on trade with non-complying countries, thus provoking either the next great war or the beginning of the real green revolution

    Before then, it'll just be nothing but small tidbits here and there, the massive third-world picking up a wee bit of pace with the first-world thus neutralizing any effort to the contrary, and the myopic retards who let other myopic billionaire entities continue to own policy, and the fear of any kind of economic burden entirely canceling out meaningful change. Maybe all the coral reefs or the majority of fisheries drying up in mid-century will provoke change, but I doubt it. The Crisis of 08 was a huge fucking deal, but it wasn't big enough to provide anything other than the banks tightening their stranglehold on the economy.
  66. #141
    Click for super cool interactive photo presenting Mt. Everest glacial melt from 1921 to 2007

    http://climateprogress.org/2009/11/2...lobal-warming/
  67. #142
    found this on facebook posted by lyric, may have been from this thread?

    Anyways some interesting shit http://www.examiner.com/x-25061-Clim...nts-and-emails
  68. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by Massimo
    found this on facebook posted by lyric, may have been from this thread?

    Anyways some interesting shit http://www.examiner.com/x-25061-Clim...nts-and-emails
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php.../the-cru-hack/
  69. #144
    He defends them pretty well actually. But 1) i guarantee no email was edited 2) they talk about changing research as if they do it all the time, that's a big WTF.
  70. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by Massimo
    2) they talk about changing research as if they do it all the time, that's a big WTF.
    The important bit, however, is not clear from the quotes (I haven't read the original documents), that is, how were they changed. I'm not a scientist but I know enough about basic data and statistical analysis to know that it's hardly an exact unambiguous science. By tweaking some parameters with a massive data set you can get pretty much any kind of results you want. If the changes have been made to produce completely false results or to hide relevant "inconvenient" results, this is obviously a big deal and should be thoroughly investigated and the persons involved punished. Far more likely IMO is that they create model after model until they find one that supports observed conditions. Some changes are business as usual everyday stuff, some are highly unethical or even illegal. With a couple lines of text taken out of context is difficult to judge what's actually been going on, provided that the emails are authentic in the first place.

    Even if this were the case and results have been mangled in questionable ways, it is still important to keep perspective. It does not mean that all scientists and every study ever made about climate change is false or fraudulent, it just shows that even scientist are people and may do morally questionable acts, for whatever reasons. Think about the alternative for a moment. All (well, 95+%) climate scientists in the world are conspiring together to convince everyone of a climate change they know isn't happening. Really? For what purpose, some extra research grants? They're all dumb enough not to realize they would get caught and lose their jobs and credibility? If you believe this, and don't believe that the opposition (big oil etc) does not have a greater vested interest, I don't know what to say.
  71. #146
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  72. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by Muzzard
    I'm hoping this is a level, but just in case.

    Yes, humans did not contribute much to the climate in the past few hundred million years, just for the past hundred or so years. Yes, the climate used to be much warmer and there used to be much more CO2 in the atmosphere. Do you also know, that e.g. during most of the mesozoic period, sea levels were about 200 meters (650 feet) higher than now? Or that seasons or permanent ice did not exist anywhere on the planet? Or that for example oxygen levels were roughly 60-75% of the current levels? Might also be worth noting that while average surface air temperatures were about 10C higher than now, equatorial ocean waters were too warm to harbor any sea life, and all land not directly connected to the sea would have been deserts. Yes, there was life on the planet during those times, but no humans, or pretty much any other lifeforms found on the planet today.
  73. #148
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    The death of billions of humans would be good for the long term longevity of the human race. If it gets too hot, it gets too hot, there's fuck all we can do.

    In a pure historical sense, the temperature and CO2 is at one of it's low levels. And no, I'm not talking in thousands/hundreds or years but rather millions.

    Shit happens, we might not be able to survive - if it gets 'too hot'. But having 6billion+ on the earth probably doesnt help things.
  74. #149
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    All I'm reading is that regardless of the problem, the solution starts with removing Muzzard.
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  75. #150
    I'm tired so I'll try to keep this short

    - 'Changing' data is standard in all science. The issue is that unqualified people who don't understand the scientific process or language provide critique about said science. An example can be found in laypeople claiming that 'evolution is just a theory'. Well, colloquially, theories have an entirely different meaning than scientifically. An example of 'changing' data without doing so incorrectly is in the thing that mcat posted a couple months back. Upon even further review, I think the specific process is called 'smoothing', and it's completely standard. But don't tell that to people unqualified to provide an opinion because they shall still provide their unqualified opinion

    - As for Muzz's graph, I'm not sure what he's trying to say with it. In fact, I'm not sure he knows what he's trying to say with it. Why? Because geophysicists aren't even sure about what it says. They're not even sure that our ability to detect CO2 PPM in the geologic records holds accurate above a certain level (which is found in that graph). Usually that graph is used by the uneducated to show that there is no correlation between CO2 and temp, but that ignores basic physics and that when ALL the data is presented (without cherry picking like deniers are incapable of not doing) it clearly illustrates that there is an incredible correlation with CO2 and temp

    Here's a video explaining

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5hs4KVeiAU

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