Little assignment for Lee

[bigspenda73]

Alright, here this is your mission should you choose to accept it. Take 1 NFL game this week that you think is the most volatile. Track the public, the sharps, and the total money, and explain how everything effects the final line. Finally, make a final pick based on all of the gathered information.

Just food for thought, I just think it would be interesting if you (or anyone) would break this down on a specific game.

[zook]

I'm n00b enough that I don't even know where to find most of this information. So I'd love to follow an analysis like this too...

[ensign_lee]

uh...define 'most volatile.'

[swiggidy]

by most volatile he means one with a line that you expect to move significantly because of some reason that you can document.

By significantly I mean enough that you can abuse the movement for profit.

[bigspenda73]

Correct sir

[ensign_lee]

Is absence of a line move good enough, or does it have to be a line move?

And does it have to be a future line move or one that already happened?

[swiggidy]

Is absence of a line move good enough, or does it have to be a line move?

In the end I think either would be fine, see below.

And does it have to be a future line move or one that already happened?

I think possible future line-move would be more interesting. Of course it's possible since you're only picking one line it's possible nothing will happen. Also, I feel you generally do a very good job summarizing your points anyway.

Back on track, what I imagine. Next week, you pick one line and start a new thread. Track changes to this line, why you think they happened, for what reasons. Or why the line isn't moving but it should be. Basically what you are thinking all week while pouring over the numbers.

[bigspenda73]

Honestly I think you could do it 1 of 3 ways
You can find a line that has moved and assess the reasons
Or
You can find a line you think will move and why
Or
You can pick a game for Sunday, show us the stats now, then when or if the line moves show the stats again and explain them.

Thanks

[ensign_lee]

Ok. Here we go:

Exhibit A:
Houston +13 @ Dallas (-110) - Pinnacle

This line will move down because of sharp money early. Public money may or may not move the line back up (I'm leaning towards no. It won't move back up, because of the performance of the Cowboys today)

By the way, I'm already on it. Both because I'm from houston (home bet - woooh!), and because I think if I really want to, I'll be able to scalp this out later.

[ensign_lee]

Exhibit B:

SEA -3.5 (-106) @ Pinnacle
or
SEA -3 (-115) @ BetCris

This line will be moving up, no doubt. Public will not bring it up ginormously because of last week's game against CHI, but they will still move this line. Public money will be moving this game.

Sharp money? I don't know what they're going to do this week.

If this game stays RIGHT where it's at, and people continue betting it, then I would recommend proceeding with caution.

[ensign_lee]

Exhibit C:

Chicago -10 @ Arizona (-110) - BetCris, Pinnacle, TheGreek

This line will move based on public money. Chicago has trounced their opponents the last two weeks by 30+ points; don't think that hasn't gotten the attention of the public. Meanwhile, Arizona hasn't done very well for itself either, amassing a 1-4 SU mark, and a 1-4 ATS mark. I'm thinking that if this line moves like it should, the line will end up around -12 or -12.5, possibly -13.

If you like Chicago, bet it now.

[bigspenda73]

Thanks Lee, I think this will be really interesting to see how it moves. And btw, congrats on the week and you're a true ballah w/ that 16 unit play.

[ensign_lee]

Also, exhibit D:

CIN -6 (-109) @ TB - Pinnacle

I REALLY like this bet, but know that the public is going to be on this side.

I might think about doing a scalp on it, taking it huge now, and trying to buyback later at +money.

I'd look for this line to be -7 by Friday, perhaps -7.5 by gameday.

[Greedo017]

how do you know which side the public and sharps will be on? is that just educated guessing based on recent performance?

[ensign_lee]

how do you know which side the public and sharps will be on? is that just educated guessing based on recent performance?

Yes,. Yes it is.

After a little while, you can kinda tell what the public will be all over.

[metaxy6]

Hey all. Not posting much these days, but was hanging around and noticed this.

Sites that I've found useful for getting line moves info:

http://www.letitridesports.com/sportsinsights.html

though it looks to have changed a bit, still an awesome resource.

Most books will give you links to line info, but if not, here's one place to get a quick look at what's been going on:
http://www.wagerline.com/Scores-odds/nfl.aspx
click the "line moves" tab for each game

[euphoricism]

moving "down" means the spread will get closer (IE, a 10 point becomes a 7 point), and moving "up" means the opposite, right?

Sharp Money - The sportsbettors who are after their edge, as opposed to the public who are just picking winners?

[ensign_lee]

moving "down" means the spread will get closer (IE, a 10 point becomes a 7 point), and moving "up" means the opposite, right?

Sharp Money - The sportsbettors who are after their edge, as opposed to the public who are just picking winners?

moving down means going from -10 to -9, yes.

Sharp Money - tends to be people who pick winners longterm (think shark for poker)
Public Money - think fish

[bigspenda73]

I know it's early, but any updates for us yet Lee?

[ensign_lee]

I was wrong on the HOU/DAL game.

CIN line went down. WTF?!?!?! 80% of people are on CIN!

SEA line has yet to move. However, only around 67% of people on SEA.

Chicago line has been moving.