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ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 4

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  1. 10-03-2010 11:21 AM #1
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    Default ensign_lee's Quest to be Better Than a Coinflip Week 4

    YTD: 17-22-1
    Units Won: -9.8

    I'm failing pretty hard in my quest to be better than a coinflip so far. Might be a good fade.

    Nevertheless, here's what I've got on deck this week.

    Browns M/L (+124
    2 units at Matchbook
    Browns +3 (-112)
    1 unit at Matchbook
    ~~~
    Just following the line move. Everyone bets on Cin. My first instinct was WOAH that line looks sweet. But the line goes from +3 to +2.5. Hmm...

    Atlanta Falcons -6.5 (-105)
    3 units at Matchbook

    ~~~
    West Coast team going to an East Coast team for the early game, plus Ace-Ace recommendation.

    Straddle
    DET +7.5, UNDER 23 (+272)
    2.86 units to win 7.78 units at Skybook

    GB -7.5, OVER 23 (+268)
    2.86 units to win 7.67 units at BetPhoenix
    ~~~

    Houston Texans -3 (-120)
    2 units at BetTrojan

    Me being a homer might make this play a bit bigger than it should be. But I hoping that the raiders offense won't be able to exploit the lack of pass defense for the Texans. And we're actually pretty damn good at stopping the run. Hopefully, our offense can back us up and win this game.

    Pittsburgh -2.5 (-104)
    1 unit at Matchbook

    Carolina Panthers +13.5 (-113)
    1 unit at Matchbook

    Bills M/L (+240)
    1 unit at Matchbook

    Jags +7 (-112)
    1 unit at Matchbook
    Last edited by ensign_lee; 10-03-2010 at 11:48 AM.

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  2. 10-03-2010 12:32 PM #2
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    Adding to my Cleveland position 2 units, making it a 4 unit bet.

    I don't know what's going on, but the line just keeps falling. Seems like the books are trying to entice Cincinnati money?

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  3. 10-03-2010 05:44 PM #3
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    San Diego -2.5 (-132) second half
    To Win 4.65 units

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  4. 10-03-2010 06:08 PM #4
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    How much does a unit represent?
    LOL OPERATIONS
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  5. 10-03-2010 06:10 PM #5
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    Unit = 1% of my bankroll.

    Bob's overachieving Lions converting 3rd and goal from the 21 to end the first half and score a TD cost me like 10.3 units, aka as $2600. (@^*@%&@*^%@&%@&^#%&*#%#&^%#
    Last edited by ensign_lee; 10-03-2010 at 06:21 PM.

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  6. 10-03-2010 06:28 PM #6
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    oh snap
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  7. 10-04-2010 07:18 PM #7
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    I like this straddle bet idea, but it's failing epically so far.

    At least you won betting on the Browns and Texans! Rarity in itself
    (\__/)
    (='.'=)
    (")_(")
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  8. 10-04-2010 09:27 PM #8
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    Ed explain a middle to me real quick

    A&M/Arky line opened at 8.5 (-105) and I took A&M, now it's at 6.5 (-105) and say I bet the same on Arkansas. If I bet the middle I'd bet hoping for a 7 or 8 point Arkansas win and all the other times do I just lose the vig?
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  9. 10-05-2010 09:52 AM #9
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    Spenda - exactly.

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  10. 10-05-2010 09:53 AM #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by swiggidy View Post
    I like this straddle bet idea, but it's failing epically so far.

    At least you won betting on the Browns and Texans! Rarity in itself
    Yeah, it did really well for me last year, but this year is burning a hole through my bankroll. Oof. 20% of my bankroll, GONE.

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  11. 10-06-2010 06:12 AM #11
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    Hi !
    I've just visited this forum. Happy to get acquainted with you. Thanks.






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  12. 10-06-2010 06:17 PM #12
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    the A&M/Arkansas line is -5.5 now, I pretty much have to middle at his rate don't I?

    btw, public money is all over Arkansas (from what I've seen) and the line has dropped 3 points in 4 days, wtf?
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  13. 10-06-2010 07:43 PM #13
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    You don't HAVE to middle. In order for a middle to be +EV, both legs of it have to be +EV as well.

    You can just sit on A&M +8, which is obviously great value, if you believe that's sitll the right side.

    Arkansas -5.5 does not necessarily = +ev.

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  14. 08-21-2018 02:05 PM #14
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    Hello!
    I've just visited this forum. Happy to get acquainted with you. Thanks.
    Regards,
    XXX
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  15. 08-21-2018 02:12 PM #15
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    ongies gonna ong
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