Ya, didn't take texas. That was a longshot, but thought it could happen. Trump still crushed tho, again doing better than expected, and once again cruz and rubio underperformed.
03-02-2016 12:09 PM
#1126
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Ya, didn't take texas. That was a longshot, but thought it could happen. Trump still crushed tho, again doing better than expected, and once again cruz and rubio underperformed. | |
03-02-2016 06:40 PM
#1127
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|
The Trumptrolls were quiet last night because in their minds Trump underperformed and Cruz overperformed. They know their hero is vulnerable and won't be able to run away from the coming debate. According to polls, Cruz greatly overperformed, according to what I was expecting, Cruz wasn't too far off. I haven't looked at things yet today, but if what the media was saying last night is any barometer, they have no idea what they're looking at since this looks like to them a big win for Cruz and big loss for Rubio. Rubio was losing long before this and should never have been expected to do better, but they didn't see the obvious. |
Last edited by wufwugy; 03-02-2016 at 06:42 PM. | |
03-02-2016 06:47 PM
#1128
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It should be noted that a contested convention can't happen now unless Kasich has a serious surge in the Midwest. Rubio needs to endorse Ted. Once the race gets into the winner-take-all states, Rubio will be too weak to stop Trump from sweeping if he's still in. |
03-02-2016 07:04 PM
#1129
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|
Trumpito no like the closed primaries |
03-02-2016 07:08 PM
#1130
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Fantastic analysis on where Trump's additional votes are coming from |
03-02-2016 08:48 PM
#1131
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I didn't realize Florida falls on the same day as some other big ones. If Rubio and Kasich don't drop out before March 15 and if they don't take their respective states (and maybe Kasich taking Illinois too), the election will be over with a Trump win. Cruz may be able to get neck and neck in delegates by that point, but if Trump takes those huge winner-take-all states, there aren't enough WTA states favorable for Cruz. |
03-02-2016 09:29 PM
#1132
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"I've made a huge mistake." |
03-03-2016 12:01 AM
#1133
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03-03-2016 02:42 PM
#1134
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03-03-2016 04:20 PM
#1135
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I've been saying some mean things about Trump. I wouldn't mind if a Trump supporter were to give an argument for how I'm wrong. I mean, I am open to the idea that it's not wrong to play both sides of a white supremacist thing as a means to an end. I just haven't been convinced of it. |
03-03-2016 04:29 PM
#1136
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|
I was wrong about this not able to go to brokered convention anymore. Internal Rubio and Kasich polls may or may not be showing that they are close to winning their respective home states. That, along with Cruz taking lots of western states and them the homestretch of California not being handed to Trump could get a convention. Somehow I doubt they'll both win their states though. |
03-03-2016 06:37 PM
#1137
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|
So, looking more at how delegates operate at the convention, it looks unlikely that Trump would get the nomination even if he got the 1,237 delegate count from state wins. It is likely that many of them would abstain from voting. Doing so is a misdemeanor but is never punished. The majority of Trump's delegates will be chosen by party elites instead of Trump or his supporters. The party can easily stop Trump from getting the nomination regardless of how many delegates he "wins" in the states. |
03-03-2016 07:35 PM
#1138
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Just stopping by to check in on wufwugy's blog. Trump's still winning, suck it | |
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03-03-2016 07:51 PM
#1139
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Because the conservative vote is split. |
03-05-2016 12:39 PM
#1140
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If Cruz can beat Trump in Kansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana today, I think he takes the nomination. He'll likely win Kansas, but the other two are gonna be hard and will require Cruz having gained non-insignificant momentum from his ST wins, his stellar debate, his CPAC performance, and the closed nature of the primaries/caucuses tonight. If these are enough for a surprise win in those states, there may be enough momentum behind him to beat Trump that voters start dropping the other candidates. |
03-05-2016 12:43 PM
#1141
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If Cruz can somehow win the weirdest state in the union (Maine), it'll be over. Trump should be able to win that one even if he shat on the governor's forehead on national television. Maine might as well be Mars. |
03-05-2016 02:02 PM
#1142
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Am I wrong, or does the establishment hate cruz almost as much as they hate trump? | |
03-05-2016 02:24 PM
#1143
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You are correct. They would probably back Cruz if the last available option was Trump or Cruz, but not a second before that. It's why their current strategy is Rubio to win Florida, Kasich Ohio, and for Romney to sweep in at a brokered convention like a white knight. The hilarious thing is that they actually think Romney would be acceptable and electable after that. More like roflnope. |
03-05-2016 02:28 PM
#1144
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|
Probably the reason they would back Cruz before Trump is because they view Trump as even less electable and that he would crush down ballot races (due to poor turnout as well as high Democrat crossover turnout). For a while they were willing to back Trump over Cruz, but the more Trump opened his mouth, the more he showed he's weak on virtually everything. He knows nothing on policy, is a weak debater, and has 10x more baggage than Hillary, which the MSM will trot out the day after Trump would win the nomination. They believe (rightly so) that minority turnout against Trump would probably exceed the 2008 gap. Trump plays to the worst of human nature. |
03-05-2016 02:37 PM
#1145
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If Trump is nominated, I will hope for a Clinton win. Even though there would then be no hope for a generation for the court to overturn some of its federal authoritarian stances, it'll mean Cruz will ride a wave into the WH in 2020. |
03-05-2016 02:50 PM
#1146
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If Rubio never did the Gang of Eight thing, he would have 2x delegates of anybody and be cruising to victory so easily. It isn't even his position on immigration that conservatives loathe so much, but how much he lied and was underhanded about it all. Honestly, I think that when it first came up in the debates, if instead of obfuscating and claiming Cruz was on his side (when eeeeeeeeverybody knows better), if he had just owned it and said he did the wrong thing and has learned and asks for forgiveness, I think he would have emerged as the conservative leader instead of Cruz. |
03-05-2016 04:31 PM
#1147
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Hot damn DecisionDeskHQ already called Kansas for Cruz with 17% reporting. Cruz: 50%, Trump 25% so far. |
03-05-2016 04:36 PM
#1148
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Ted with nearly 20 point lead in Maine with 5% reporting. Hooooooold! |
03-05-2016 10:27 PM
#1149
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03-05-2016 11:19 PM
#1150
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Cruz coming away with ~15 more delegates than Trump did today. Cruz blasting through each of the polls by double digits. Cruz doing this even with high spoiler effect from Rubio and Kasich. Trump giving a particularly low energy press conference. Trump playing reverse psychology by calling for others to drop out so he can have Cruz mano a mano. |
03-05-2016 11:24 PM
#1151
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So glad I was wrong. |
03-06-2016 09:16 AM
#1152
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03-06-2016 08:57 PM
#1153
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If anybody cares, this shows how Cruz can win if Trump takes both Florida and Ohio (and Rubio and Kasich drop out the next day). This mirrors my back of napkin assessment of who takes which states, except I think Cruz could possibly take Illinois. Also it is possible that when we're late in the game, some of the NE states will start going towards Cruz. |
03-07-2016 12:41 AM
#1154
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I honestly mean this as a constructive critique and as evidence of that fact I point out that I agree with the sentiment in the quoted-- with that being said, as someone who often finds truth in the margins, avoid being written off as a conspiracy kook by avoiding phrases like this. | |
03-07-2016 05:17 AM
#1155
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I revise Trumps chances from 95% to 80% in light of recent developments. Hillary is still >95%. | |
03-07-2016 10:09 AM
#1156
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Romney Vs Clinton, 2016 | |
03-07-2016 03:54 PM
#1157
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03-07-2016 04:20 PM
#1158
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Just one small example, but you get the gist. This isn't a conspiracy theory, it's just a fact. | |
03-07-2016 06:56 PM
#1159
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attachment no work |
03-07-2016 07:09 PM
#1160
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Damn son, Mississippi Gov just endorsed Cruz (it votes tomorrow). Four Senators are said to be on docket to endorse Cruz soon (it's gotta be Mike Lee, Ben Sasse, and two others). |
03-07-2016 07:13 PM
#1161
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Really? It works fine on my side. I must be doing something wrong. | |
03-07-2016 07:41 PM
#1162
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By alleging facts which you cannot possibly prove, and believing them wholeheartedly, you will sound like a kook who cannot be believed. | |
03-07-2016 08:03 PM
#1163
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But the media is garbage and they did convince lots of people the race was over. This position is highly demonstrable. A friend wanting to look into the elections asked me for a good media source. Guess what my answer was. None. Even the main sources I consume right now are unapologetic biased trash. In order to parse your way through current events, you really have to consume a wide variety of media -- including opinion media and pure documentation of events -- and contrast them with each other. The context in which I called the media garbage this time is that if you pay attention to media treatment of the GOP race, it is hilariously bad. Like, way worse than one would think if just told about it in detail. These blowhards en masse are deliberately reporting the wrong things and rooting for their teams at all costs -- not to mention issue incompetency in many instances. |
Last edited by wufwugy; 03-07-2016 at 08:08 PM. | |
03-07-2016 11:34 PM
#1164
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See, but it doesn't matter if it's demonstrably false, it's off message and almost never is going to be challenged, but instead will just colour the listener's view of you and your opinion. Read the same post without that side comment, and nothing is lost. This probably could be clipped and merged with the persuasion thread-- you've got interesting things to say, but you clutter your message with distracting, off message, cheap shots. Whether you are or not, you are unnecessarily going to be written off as a kook, with nothing gained but pats on the back from the choir. | |
03-08-2016 12:33 AM
#1165
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That's a fair assessment. I talk a lot differently when I'm trying to convince people of things. I've been letting myself get rougher with this thread since it has sorta become me bouncing things off the wall for myself but also with hopes something will stick for somebody else. |
03-08-2016 11:44 AM
#1166
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It's funny, I possibly put Trump chances to lose at 80%. |
03-08-2016 05:14 PM
#1167
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Apparently Ross Douthat came to the same conclusion today: |
03-08-2016 06:43 PM
#1168
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Wuf, you should put heavy money on Cruz to win the nomination via Bodog with your estimations. | |
03-08-2016 07:08 PM
#1169
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Would if could. |
03-08-2016 07:11 PM
#1170
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Actually even then I wouldn't. I discovered by MMA betting that I lose enjoyment from the sport when I've got money on it. Plus it heightens stress a great deal. |
03-08-2016 08:53 PM
#1171
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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Trump winning Florida and Ohio most certainly does not hurt him | |
03-08-2016 09:06 PM
#1172
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The only way this would be true is if Rubio and Kasich stayed in the race. It's not entirely impossible that they would do that, but their purpose would be to get Romney that brokered convention instead of letting Cruz demolish Trump. |
03-08-2016 09:10 PM
#1173
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The problem is it can't be guaranteed Rubio and Kasich will leave the race even if they lose every state. The signs are clear that the RNC's strategy now revolves around a brokered convention. The RNC knows that it can't nominate its establishment Romney/McCain/Dole robot by winning states since Cruz and Trump are too powerful, yet it would also rather die a fiery death than let the party be run by somebody other than a party insider. Hence, all its eggs are in the brokered convention basket now and Rubio and Kasich are doing the RNC's bidding. |
03-08-2016 09:16 PM
#1174
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WRT Cruz stomping Trump HU: recent polls have Cruz blasting Trump 54% to 41% and 57% to 40% IIRC. All Cruz/Trump HU polls have shown the same and they're consistent with crosstabs regarding elements of Trump's support. |
03-08-2016 09:32 PM
#1175
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If it was HU after today, the only states Trump would beat Cruz in are |
03-08-2016 09:36 PM
#1176
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Honestly though I could see Cruz sweeping all the Northeast states HU. Trump's real >50% strength comes from Dixiecrat regions. Acela Republicans in the NE wouldn't be so enticed by Trump. |
03-08-2016 09:59 PM
#1177
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03-08-2016 11:21 PM
#1178
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If Trump wins FL and OH he will have a ~300 delegate lead. Your Cruz love reminds me of Reddit's for Bernie. | |
03-08-2016 11:33 PM
#1179
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1237 wins the nomination, not a 300 lead. Trump would have an arithmetically challenged time at breaking 1000 delegates if it went HU at that point based on that 300 lead not being large enough when added to his likely remaining delegates to win. |
03-08-2016 11:37 PM
#1180
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Not all enthusiastic support is created equal. The typical Redditor supports Bernie for his technically incorrect policy positions. I support Cruz for his technically correct policy positions. |
03-09-2016 12:18 AM
#1181
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I think the burden of proof is on you to explain the math of how Cruz can possibly win the nomination down 720 to 430 after wins in FL and OH. There's still NC, NY, and NJ left after that. AZ is very anti-immigrant. April is WI, CT, DE, MD, PE and RI which are hardly Cruz friendly. Cruz can only win in a brokered convention | |
03-09-2016 12:19 AM
#1182
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03-09-2016 12:29 AM
#1183
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As for some of your specific states, AZ, PA, and WI go to Cruz HU easily. Trump's support isn't "anti-immigrant" like the popular media suggests. He's weaker on illegal aliens than Trump is and the Southwest knows it. Besides, immigration isn't their chief concern. AZ sensibilities reflect TX, OK, KS sensibilities far more than states Trump has won. The same goes for WI and PA. Trump would not break 50% in the Midwest. |
03-09-2016 01:46 AM
#1184
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What are your thoughts on TYT and Secular Talk? | |
03-09-2016 01:57 AM
#1185
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Well, that chart does force me to agree that if Trump somehow loses literally every winner-take-all state and only gets 30-55% in every other state then yes, Cruz can win. | |
03-09-2016 10:55 AM
#1186
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03-09-2016 11:00 AM
#1187
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This is something that the Trump supporters ignore or deny whole-cloth. While I harbor no illusions that Cruz may not win the nom, much less the general, it seems that convincing Trump supporters of any facts whatsoever is impossible. | |
03-09-2016 11:03 AM
#1188
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03-09-2016 11:07 AM
#1189
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Don't be too sure. We may back Cruz, but conservatives don't tend to do cults of personality. Cruz can be underhanded, acts like a douchebag sometimes and I wish I could give him a wedgie when he gets smarmy/too big for his pants. | |
03-09-2016 01:43 PM
#1190
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Cruz: | |
Last edited by BankItDrew; 03-09-2016 at 02:39 PM. | |
03-09-2016 07:58 PM
#1191
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Not all abortion is made equal. A good starting place to see that the "pro-choice" crowd doesn't have the market cornered on being right is that the movement supports partial-birth abortion. Partial-birth abortion is murder. There are no two ways around it. When you induce birth in order to kill, you have murdered. |
03-09-2016 08:03 PM
#1192
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I used to be a big TYT fan. That's part of how I can say that it's incompetent journalism. It is also my pick for the single most biased popular news/opinion source. It's not even as bad as Hannity and O'Reilly taking their marching orders from Rupert Murdoch to prop up Rubio at all costs and denigrate Cruz at all costs. The fantasies Cenk puts out are just that bad. |
03-09-2016 08:08 PM
#1193
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Funny that. It's almost like the cult of personality going on right now is a national socialist (Trump). Not too much unlike the previous socialist's cult of personality that propelled him into the White House (Obama). |
03-09-2016 08:16 PM
#1194
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Try this on: Cruz is the most electable person in the entire race. How do you know somebody is electable but by how efficient and effective and consistent he has been? Cruz has the most money in his campaign coffers, spends the least, has every aspect of the RNC fighting against him tooth and nail, and yet by grassroots support alone he is crushing fools far beyond expectations. He's beating his poll numbers by significant margins and he's gaining supporters by greater margins than opponents. |
03-10-2016 11:13 AM
#1195
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Here are some links on Rubio's position: | |
03-10-2016 11:32 AM
#1196
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Cruz is too swarmy to be elected. Ain't gonna happen. | |
03-10-2016 06:40 PM
#1197
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What are these? The best I can think of as underhanded was the Iowa voter score cards, but that's used by pretty much every politician and isn't underhanded but instead a little tasteless. |
03-11-2016 12:08 AM
#1198
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Cruz and Rubio did well tonight. But Trump understands he just needs to go low variance and switch to general election mode. Can't wait for Tuesday | |
03-11-2016 09:46 AM
#1199
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03-11-2016 11:23 AM
#1200
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I'm not sure that Trump's 180 turn away from his bombastic style will help him. It lets policy take a more central role, which makes him look worse since he's outmatched on policy. |