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**** Elections thread *****

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  1. #901
    come to think of it, rubio may not have done surprisingly well. from the beginning, there was always going to be ~25% going to moderate establishment voters, as there always is in iowa. it turned out he got most all of it and the other establishment candidates did very poorly. rubio didnt seem to cut into the base that supports cruz, trump, and some others.

    he who wins iowa wins the election. just because the establishment cares more about losing and thus does everything it can to get a non-conservative on the ballot doesn't mean that he who wins iowa cant also win the nomination.


    this is a big win for cruz. it means you can stand up to ethanol corruption (unheard of before now) and win. it shows that he can get massive new turnout. they said big turnout would favor trump, but it did not; cruz turned out tons of newbs. combined with his campaign skills and the amount of nationwide support he gets from volunteers, it suggests he can over-perform everywhere, which will give him the nomination.
  2. #902
    just by eyeballing the demos that supported the candidates, rubio did not have a surge. cruz and trump competed for top two in every county except the small number of white collar ones. rubio edged out victories in those. if this is representative of how the rest of the race will go, cruz will win the nomination.
  3. #903
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    Lots of suspicion and evidence from both democrats and republicans coming out that Microsoft rigged Iowa.
  4. #904
    pretty sure every vote was documented twice (once on paper), for the purpose of problems with the digital medium.
  5. #905
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    pretty sure every vote was documented twice (once on paper), for the purpose of problems with the digital medium.
    I mean we'll see how it goes, but we just found out a few weeks ago that Powerball was rigged, and there are paper tickets for those too lol
  6. #906
    I'm taking it back and going out on a limb: I think Cruz wins the nomination.

    His path to victory is as follows: campaign hard in New Hampshire. Use evangelical bona fides and liberty conservative bona fides (like winning while opposing the sacred cow of ethanol subsidies). Finish strong second in NH behind Trump yet while the establishment field splits the vote up and pummels Rubio. In South Carolina and the rest of the of coming-soon states, do the same well enough that first or second place is snatched (ahead or behind Trump). Eventually, with enough firsts and seconds, the liberty conservative movement will become empirical and unstoppable. The establishment will have drowned and be lost in what to do in the face of a true Trump vs Cruz race.

    Once it becomes Trump vs Cruz, Cruz wins every time. Hell, if it somehow ends up Cruz vs Rubio, given the elements of how Iowa went down, it looks like Rubio would be doomed. Cruz is too strong at reforming the electorate to the image of his supporters and Rubio would be relegated to the white collar urban areas.

    My reluctance on predicting a Cruz win comes from that the oh-so-wrong conventional wisdom is so deeply pervasive in the electoral consultant class that I've been skeptical that a politician would actually know better. But it seems Cruz does know better.
  7. #907
    For the Bernie fans, this should be played as a big win. The media keeps saying how it's not, but as usual they're a big pile of wrong. Bernie should be saying things like "we started at 4%, we were never expected to compete with the Clinton juggernaut, we have defied expectations, we will win dominantly in New Hampshire..."

    If he were to beat Hillary, it would be on the back of this sort of narrative. His camp has too deeply internalized the media narrative that once it gets to South Carolina and beyond, he won't be able to win over enough black and rural voters. It's total bullshit, as Cruz will prove with the GOP. You create your electorate and spread your message, not kowtow to the will of the convention.
  8. #908
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    It's still bad for bernie.

    His biggest support comes from states like NH, but he was expected to still have a lot of support in Iowa. He did have a lot of support there, but lost.

    He needs to be able to win the states that are most predisposed to his narrative, so losing iowa was a big deal.

    But, it's not like us bernie fans are down or anything. He still demonstrated a ton of support, has money, and didn't O'Malley his way out of iowa. That's something that shows him as a real contender, and signals a long fight with hilary.

    I'm phone posting so this is garbled. But the biggest thing is we were expecting him to not just be competitive, but win. Him winning twice in a row (NH is a lock) would have been amazing. We'd still have a rough fight with hilary, but she'd be the one in the back seat and would have lost a lot of support. That option, compared to what we got, is why we're down.
  9. #909
    the idea that he needed to win iowa is an imposition from the media narrative. if you were to go back 6 months and say that bernie would tie hillary in iowa, you'd be like OH SHIT OMG. the bernie camp is dropping the ball by letting the media dictate its narrative. he doesn't have to win iowa and he can be a favorite in hillary "strongholds" like in the south. the narrative that bernie doesn't appeal to blacks is total bullshit media garbage, yet today it's true since bernie hasn't defied it and pushed his message to blacks. the black voter's appeal to clinton is marginal at best, and most of what bernie represents actually appeals more to the typical democratically minded black voter than what clinton represents. hillary is incredibly vulnerable just off of not dominating iowa as is.

    im not saying this because i support sanders, because i don't. i think as a matter of strategy, hillary is so beatable yet the sanders camp hasn't embraced how and why.
    Last edited by wufwugy; 02-03-2016 at 01:37 AM.
  10. #910
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    I thought it was sad and hilarious that blackliveamatter protested him b4.
  11. #911
    it doesn't help that when blacklivesmatter protested him at first, he backed down.

    i posted this but then edited it out, but it's relevant so i'll repost the sentiment. sanders is used to a media and constituency that supports him. for a long time, the media has been a strong proponent of moving leftward and during the obama years it's as if anybody left enough to be socialist is a superhero. this is where a good deal of bernie's poor strategy emerges; he's taken by surprise and hasn't yet realized that the media isn't going to help him beat clinton the way it helps the democrats beat republicans.

    contrast this to cruz, who emerges from a conservative movement that has long since learned that the media hates them and even their own party hates them. cruz has been highly effective at countering the media narrative and constructing strategy based upon the lessons learned therein. check out what cruz did when protested by code pink and contrast it to bernie and blacklivesmatter. cruz shut them down by inviting them to an impromptu debate; bernie was frazzled and couldn't handle it.

    this isn't the year that a grassroots left liberal wins, and i think it's largely because the grassroots left liberals haven't been hardened by the perpetual elitist attacks that have hardened grassroots conservatives. granted, i hope that when the left liberal grassroots are hardened, it will be around a philosophy of liberty instead of the current government-knows-best one.
  12. #912
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    So hilarious to me that Hillary won on coin flips.
  13. #913
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    Also, it's really important to note that Sanders is taking a page out of Trump's book: He's refusing to debate Hillary unless she agrees to certain conditions.
  14. #914
    could you imagine how insane the media would be right now if cruz was a democrat?

    it would be wall to wall "THE FIRST HISPANIC TO WIN A PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATING CONTEST EVER OMG OMG OMG AREN'T WE SO PROGRESSIVE!!"
  15. #915
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    But he's Canadian, not Mexican.
  16. #916
    I bet he's secretly French Canadian. The worst!
  17. #917
    reading this article, lol'd pretty good at opening paragraph

    http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/...-nothing-iowa/

    A reasonable person in the position of Donald Trump might have looked at what happened to him in Iowa and concluded that maybe a campaign ground game is at least sort of important after all, especially in small states. However, the Donald Trump campaign does not have a reasonable person in the position of Donald Trump; instead, they have Donald Trump in the position of Donald Trump.
  18. #918
    this is all just pr. he doesn't want to win, yet he can't say so without the blowback.
  19. #919
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    Cruz is Mexican? Looks, sounds, and acts pretty white to me. He also chooses to go by "ted".

    I looked it up. Hes totes mexi. I dare the repubs to brag about it though.
  20. #920
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    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    Cruz is Mexican? Looks, sounds, and acts pretty white to me. He also chooses to go by "ted".

    I looked it up. Hes totes mexi. I dare the repubs to brag about it though.
    Canadian by birth, Cuban by blood, and his name is Rafael, but he goes by Ted.
  21. #921
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    I dare the repubs to brag about it though.
    it won't happen because conservatives have long since gotten past the racial hangups common among left liberal elites.
  22. #922
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    Canadian by birth, Cuban by blood, and his name is Rafael, but he goes by Titanium Ted.
    fyp
  23. #923
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Rafael Edward "Ted" Cruz (born December 22, 1970) is an American politician and the junior U.S. Senator from Texas. He is a Republican candidate for President of the United States in the 2016 presidential election.
    More like Rafail

    Also if he keeps fucking around, this shit over the Ben Carson scandal is going to blow up big
  24. #924
  25. #925
    JKDS's Avatar
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    Kids these days.

    Tantrump is clearly a better word for it
  26. #926
    cruz coined it.

    IS THERE NOTHING THE MAN CANT DO?!?!?!
  27. #927
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    Evidently make up names. Tantrump is far superior, and it's not even close
  28. #928
    eh i like trumper tantrum better than temper tantrump. the emphasis as the beginning of the phrase sells better.
  29. #929
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    Meanwhile, Trump's polls continue to rise while Cruz's do not.
  30. #930
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    You don't need temper tho.

    Throwing a tantrum

    Throwing a temper tantrum

    Same thing. No one says tantrum anymore outside of this context, so you can get the point across faster. It's also easier to make themes using single words than phrases. It's also cheaper to print out things that only say tantrump.

    So ya. He sucks.
  31. #931
    "tantrump" doesn't roll off the tongue because the focal point of the word, "trump", lands on the quieter syllable, "trum". when adding "trump" to a word in order to deride, we want it to land on a loud syllable. "TRUMPer TANtrum" works because it directly replaces "TEMPer TANtrum" and nothing aesthetically changes. but if we say "tantrump", our brains want to say "tanTRUMP", but this mangles the word.

    it seems titanium ted was riggidy-riggidy right the whole time. never snooze on cruz.
  32. #932
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    "tantrump" doesn't roll off the tongue because the focal point of the word, "trump", lands on the quieter syllable, "trum". when adding "trump" to a word in order to deride, we want it to land on a loud syllable. "TRUMPer TANtrum" works because it directly replaces "TEMPer TANtrum" and nothing aesthetically changes. but if we say "tantrump", our brains want to say "tanTRUMP", but this mangles the word.

    it seems titanium ted was riggidy-riggidy right the whole time. never snooze on cruz.
    Take the guy out of the mix who can't even legally run for President. Now what?
  33. #933
    Constitution Cruz does not care for your Natural-born Negativity.
  34. #934
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    The Illinois board of elections has about as much say in that as the local PTA does.
  35. #935
    Have you ever seen the Trump so stumped before? Every which way that Delusional Donald attacks Constitution Cruz, Tenacious Ted just keeps getting the upper hand. I figured the White Cuban Knight always had it in him, but I never figured it would be this bad. I hope los Donaldarios aren't taking it too hard.
  36. #936
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    spoon is on suicide watch lmao
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  37. #937
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    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    spoon is on suicide watch lmao
    ikr

    Fucking Mexicans like Cruz are running this country into the goddamn ground etc etc

    I think it's great how these fucks who have been professional politicians for like 40+ fucking years think it's a great victory to BARELY beat Trump in the only state in the fucking Union where it was even close, and to only beat him by like 3 points because caucuses are bullshit formats that are heavily stacked against outsiders

    [not trolling]After realizing I'd never actually said who I support here in terms of the actual issues, so on ideological grounds, I like most everything about Sanders.[/not trolling]

    Sanders is a communist fuck
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 02-05-2016 at 03:23 PM.
  38. #938
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    FEEL THE GODDAMN BERN
  39. #939
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    [not trolling]After realizing I'd never actually said who I support here in terms of the actual issues, so on ideological grounds, I like most everything about Sanders.[/not trolling]
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy
    luls
  40. #940
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    Trump's paper army so completely folded in Iowa that his diehard supporters are running to socialism lol
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  41. #941
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    Quote Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
    Trump's paper army so completely folded in Iowa that his diehard supporters are running to communism lol
    fyp

    Also, national polls show that Trump has dropped about 3-3.5 percent (which has all went to Rubio, none to Cruz). You'd think it would be more than that after Microsoft rigged Iowa.
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 02-06-2016 at 12:35 PM.
  42. #942
    Quote Originally Posted by boost View Post
    luls
    naw on policy trump and sanders are real close. theyre both antagonistic to immigration, big spenders on welfare, like taxes that *appear* to fall on the wealthy, like to regulate from the top-down, etc.

    plus i have resigned myself to the idea that changes in political alignment typically do not come through abstract reasoning. maybe experience of a pro-liberty administration first hand can do it.
  43. #943
    national polls are beyond meaningless. they only show degree of national media attention for a candidate. poll respondents nationally aren't paying attention to the race the way each state that has entered its voting period has. the state results are far more indicative of the national opinion than national polls are. however, they have some caveats, like iowa being more evangelical heavy and new hampshire being more lefty. south carolina has typically been the bellwether, but it might not be this cycle.

    also cruz should be the favorite in south carolina. it's not that much unlike iowa caucus and his ground is awesome there.

    also http://theresurgent.com/donald-trump...-bad-marketer/
  44. #944
    i expect trump to win by at least 10 points in new hampshire. fortunately, however, nh isn't what it once was. it isn't indicative of gop primary tastes. all it does now is set up the biggest lefty in the race so that he can duke it out in south carolina with the biggest righty who won iowa. this cycle will possibly be strange, but if the traditional elements are all the same as they always are, cruz wins sc
  45. #945
    rubio got shredded. christie did the best. i can see that debate turning a lot of people off to rubio since it shows that the criticisms of him are probably right.
  46. #946
    trump also didn't do so hot. combined with the fact that he does no retail politics in the one state that demands retail politics, i could see him dropping up to ten points from the polls.

    we could potentially get a four way tie between trump cruz kasich rubio all hitting 15-20 and bush christie hitting 8-13 and fiorina carson hitting 2-5.
  47. #947
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    c-c-c-c-c-c-c-combo breaker
  48. #948
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    Sanders just lost me with his rants about $15/hour minimum wage and obvious pandering to the Latino vote.

    Edit: To be fair, he never really had me. I just really like fucking with you guys over politics.
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 02-08-2016 at 11:36 PM.
  49. #949
    In Spoonitland, "[/not trolling]" could be trolling.
  50. #950
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    In Spoonitland, "[/not trolling]" could be trolling.
    I really can't help myself.

    I was going to play the Bernie angle for a few weeks and be ridiculous with that, but I just can't with this fucking clown.
  51. #951
    90210% chance you were one of the kids who pranked random numbers.
  52. #952
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    90210% chance you were one of the kids who pranked random numbers.
    Yeah my favorite was to just start talking to them like I knew them, and when they kept asking who I was, just yell MOTHERFUCKER or something in the phone and laugh like hell.
  53. #953
    I know I said nice things about Carson a while back. He said correct things about PC culture and welfare, so he got his due. But this Carson-Cruz nontroversy is nothing other than a demonstration that Carson will choose hypocrisy, selfishness, and poor intellect when the other option is integrity, selflessness, and sound intellect. Also it has pretty much been determined that his candidacy is a moneymaking scheme revolving around development of a mailing list.

    I like El Trumpo a little better when he doesn't attack Cruz. It's not that Cruz is off limits, but that Donald Dunham's attacks are baseless. They're not just irritating, they're self-serving since they do not contribute to a winning strategy in such a big election, especially since the guy he's attacking is the most quality candidate in the field.

    I'm optimistically picking Cruz to get 15% tomorrow. It doesn't sound like much, but that would be a seriously incredible showing for his pedigree. A 20% finish would pretty much confirm that he will be the nominee. It would show that somebody with such conservative appeal actually has quite broad appeal compared to other conservative candidates. Regardless, it doesn't really matter what a conservative gets in New Hampshire since South Carolina is in part a counter-punch to New Hampshire (similar to how New Hampshire is a counter-punch to Iowa). In previous cycles, the conservative candidate lost South Carolina because they could not consolidate the conservative vote.

    Trump probably gets something upwards of 25% while Rubio, Kasich, and Bush duke it out between 10-20% each. Best case scenario involves Rubio looking bad (making the "only our incorrect idea of electability matters" people lose their shit), since I think he's the only true threat to Cruz.
  54. #954
    If Cruz exceeds the upper end of his expected results, it will mean that he pulled a significant portion of the Ron Paul constituency away from Trump. Yeah I know it makes little sense that Paulites became Trumpistas, but they did. Paul's supporters were always a pigsty of alien-abducted neckbeard drunks. Paul himself ended up selling out to this crowd.
  55. #955
    Oh shit with 1% reporting and 37 votes counted Cruz, Trump, and Kasich are tied with 24.3%. Cruz winning with >30% confirmed!!
  56. #956
    While I would probably have preferred Trump to have done a wee bit more poorly, this is a good outcome for Cruz. Rubio is done without a miracle. That debate performance annihilated him. He was probably the biggest threat to Cruz. The second biggest is Trump. This killer performance from Trump in NH will probably give him a slight boost in SC, it won't extend greatly beyond that since the NH GOP primary is very left of the rest of the GOP primary. The biggest gain in support Cruz could gather would come from Trump supporters, but not by a whole lot. If Trump left, maybe 30% would go to Cruz, 20% elsewhere, and 50% would not vote.

    Anyways the reason this is good for Cruz is Rubio is done and the establishment lane is messy and will be more scared of Trump while Cruz waits in the shadows.

    If Trump wins SC, it might be game over and we'll be grinning and bearing four years of President Clinton. He won't win it though, at least not convincingly if he does.
  57. #957
    Dang it. How did Sanders beat Clinton in New Hampshire?
    It takes 2 years to learn to talk, but a lifetime to learn when to shut up.
  58. #958
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    Because ppl get tattoos to show support for bernie, while people support clinton only because she is "electable"
  59. #959
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    Seriously though, I don't see the appeal in clinton. I'm personally turned off because she's too cautious when it comes to breaking tradition. She'd be a decent president, no doubt, due to her extensive cabinet experience and a past 8 yr POTUS at her beck and call, but nothing about her gets me excited. I feel like we have a lot of problems in America right now, and she has yet to inspire me...I don't believe she'll accomplish significant change to help those problems.

    I do with bernie.
  60. #960
    What about experience is good, i.e., what if somebody's wealth of experience is in doing the wrong thing?
  61. #961
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    There's more to the story. You can disagree with her policies, but if she ever did something objectively wrong, she wouldn't even be in the race.

    I hate her on gay rights, but she still is miles ahead of everyone else when it comes to the nuts abd bolts of acting as president.
  62. #962
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    if she ever did something objectively wrong, she wouldn't even be in the race.
    Voters and politicians support/do objectively wrong positions/things all the time. Typically, more often than not.
  63. #963
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    I hate her on gay rights, but she still is miles ahead of everyone else when it comes to the nuts abd bolts of acting as president.
    "Good on gay rights" is not the same as "good for gay people" or "good on human rights". "Gay rights" is a narrow subset of those, and when it is addressed myopically, it leads to net negatives for gays and humans. We know this because we have seen it with regards to other groups. "Good on black rights" policies have actually made things much worse for black people and humans in general.

    Part of how this can be seen to be the case is in how the current "pro-gay rights" politicians and activism engage with the same philosophy that put them in an oppressed class to begin with. Many politicians who support gay rights at the expense of other rights are actually doing damage even as they're being propped up as heroes.

    In case it's of interest: as a supporter of gay people, I do not think Sanders or Clinton are beneficial to the cause. I don't know if Cruz is, but he could be.
  64. #964
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Voters and politicians support/do objectively wrong positions/things all the time. Typically, more often than not.
    You have a lose definition of objective then. The worst thing Republicans can throw at her is that she got emails from her private pc. If she was such a monster, they'd have a lot more ammo
  65. #965
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    You have a lose definition of objective then. The worst thing Republicans can throw at her is that she got emails from her private pc. If she was such a monster, they'd have a lot more ammo
    My definition of objectively wrong isn't exclusive to legality. For example, there are tons of objectively wrong economic positions that politicians and voters hold, yet those positions often do them no damage and usually help them.
  66. #966
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    There is over a billion dollars being spent on this election. An unreal amount of money. You mean to tell me that no one knows, or has thought about, punishing clinton for her econ policy?

    It should be a very easy argument if it's objectively correct. Skilled attorneys can create emotional stories out of the prose of a contract, and people like ND Tyson have explained difficult, abstract concepts in ways children can understand.

    But instead of seeing and proving that she's shit, the money is spent talking about emails.

    She's currently under investigation for this, but not for anything else she's done. I understand she is "wrong" to conservatives, but this is beyond that. Being objectively wrong means being wrong on both sides of the aisle.
  67. #967
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    "Good on gay rights" is not the same as "good for gay people" or "good on human rights". "Gay rights" is a narrow subset of those, and when it is addressed myopically, it leads to net negatives for gays and humans. We know this because we have seen it with regards to other groups. "Good on black rights" policies have actually made things much worse for black people and humans in general.

    Part of how this can be seen to be the case is in how the current "pro-gay rights" politicians and activism engage with the same philosophy that put them in an oppressed class to begin with. Many politicians who support gay rights at the expense of other rights are actually doing damage even as they're being propped up as heroes.

    In case it's of interest: as a supporter of gay people, I do not think Sanders or Clinton are beneficial to the cause. I don't know if Cruz is, but he could be.
    Expense of what rights, and for whom? Are you arguing that letting gays marry, adopt, or visit each other in hospitals is somehow hurting the rest of society?

    I understand your qualms with programs like affirmative action, welfare, etc. It's irrelevant to the discussion though. Clinton doesn't give a fuck about gays and will not advance them forward. Bernie, based on his record and conviction, will.

    Meanwhile half the antigay republicans endeavor to set us back.

    So yes, bernie is both good on gay rights and good for gay ppl....while clinton and pretty much everyone else is neither.
  68. #968
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    There is over a billion dollars being spent on this election. An unreal amount of money. You mean to tell me that no one knows, or has thought about, punishing clinton for her econ policy?

    It should be a very easy argument if it's objectively correct. Skilled attorneys can create emotional stories out of the prose of a contract, and people like ND Tyson have explained difficult, abstract concepts in ways children can understand.

    But instead of seeing and proving that she's shit, the money is spent talking about emails.

    She's currently under investigation for this, but not for anything else she's done. I understand she is "wrong" to conservatives, but this is beyond that. Being objectively wrong means being wrong on both sides of the aisle.
    Just because something is objectively wrong doesn't mean that many or most people acknowledge that it is objectively wrong.

    For example, politicians that support minimum wage laws are objectively wrong. A significant majority of people agree with the politicians on it, and they too are objectively wrong. The voting coalition that elects these politicians overwhelmingly agrees with them on it, and they still are objectively wrong. Minimum wage policies are a boon to many politicians despite the fact that they are objectively wrong.
  69. #969
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    You say that, but its just speculation isn't it? Seattle experienced price hikes in just reastaurants...but so did restaurants outside of the city.

    The problem is that you got proof issues. The reason this is even arguable and that the reverse is unpersuassive isn't because America is dumb
    It's because the support is laking. Even if the theory says it's bad, that's meaningless without firm support
  70. #970
    This was long but I kept it short, given how much I packed in.

    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    Expense of what rights, and for whom? Are you arguing that letting gays marry, adopt, or visit each other in hospitals is somehow hurting the rest of society?
    We must define this correctly. Very few people who are said to be anti-gay are against adoption or visitation rights of gays. There are some, but they're nowhere near the size of people who are against gay marriage.

    But gay marriage isn't wrong right? Well, if it was as cut and dried as the media has told everybody, I can't give much reason why it would be. But it's not that cut and dried.

    The main measure of antagonism to gay marriage is because of how it is being handled. I don't even mean the legislation from the bench that people hate (even though that's a quality reason), but that other peoples rights are being stepped on, namely religious ones. It is deeply important to many Christians who disagree with homosexuality on a fundamental religious ground that they not be forced to support it, yet due to how this segment of "gay rights" is being handled, many are being forced to support it. Some of their concerns are not legitimate, like those who refuse to sign marriage documents when that's their job. However, they do have legitimate concerns when bakeries are forced to do gay weddings. This is a blatant abuse of religious freedoms, yet it is never framed as such outside of religious circles, probably because blatant abuses of religious freedoms have become commonplace in our country. If these abuses were eliminated, I suspect you would find a huge proportion of antagonists to gay marriage would change their stance, and the claim that gay marriage isn't hurting anybody would then be true.

    A second reason propelling antagonism of gay marriage is that it is one of the more explicit policies showing a redefining of marriage. Again, this isn't about what is commonly addressed by the media, for the media has no idea why some Christians are against gay marriage. Well, the main reason why is because to them, marriage isn't about love, it's about family production. They believe that the bedrock of a healthy society is making babies and raising kids, and they support policies that promote that. Gays marrying, however, doesn't engage this ideal. In fact it subverts the ideal; it furthers the idea that making babies and raising kids is less important. This is an issue on which I disagree with the anti-gay-marriage crowd, but it's still important to understand their point. I disagree for a handful of reasons, but the one I'll make here is that family making in a modern world can be about more than having your own babies, and I think it would be reasonable for Christians to embrace gay marriage in that it's an attempt for gays to adopt the mainstream ethic of marriage in the first place. Of course, many Christians would not go for this because they would say that it would be better for gays to still marry the opposite sex so they can make families and just be gay in secret, but I think that's wrong for the same reasons you do.

    A third reason is that our current rendition of "gay rights" has been so emboldened that activists commonly oppress and denigrate others just the same that their antecedents were oppressed and denigrated not that many years ago. This is something two different gay media personalities I pay attention to, Milo Yiannopolous and Dave Rubin, have discussed. Many gay activists have so vehemently demanded their own rights that they pay no attention to the rights of others. It's one thing to think a baker who doesn't cater gay weddings is wrong and to point it out, but it's something else entirely to turn them into villains with hateful actions and intentions. I think this is a big reason why there seems to be such a lack of older gay people in these situations. They remember what it was like to be hated and mistreated, and won't engage in the same.

    A fourth reason is highly indirect, yet no less important. It involves the concept that helping people comes by liberating them and their society, not by exchanging one set or one group of oppression for another. This is exemplified in things like SCOTUS seeming to advance the liberty of gay people by its ruling. It did advance the liberty of gay people, but the unintended consequences of that decision arguably detracted the liberty of gay people (and all people) by even more because the ruling itself was steeped in a philosophy that has consistently harmed liberty in the long run. Giving gays the ability to marry by federal mandate seems nice for now, but the federal mandate itself on this issue is wrong. If instead the court had ruled that marriage is not a government issue in the first place, many people probably would have said the ruling was hurting gays since it would still allow for some discrimination by private entities, yet in the long run this ruling would have greatly increased the total amount of liberty for all, including gays. Even if you disagree with this example, my point stems from the philosophy of limited government, which has always been believed to be integral to the existence of liberty. The SCOTUS ruling on gay marriage was not an example of limited government.
  71. #971
    Quote Originally Posted by JKDS View Post
    You say that, but its just speculation isn't it? Seattle experienced price hikes in just reastaurants...but so did restaurants outside of the city.

    The problem is that you got proof issues. The reason this is even arguable and that the reverse is unpersuassive isn't because America is dumb
    It's because the support is laking. Even if the theory says it's bad, that's meaningless without firm support
    It's not speculation. The theory is beyond solid. It's theory of evolution level solid. It's made solid by the arithmetic alone, not to mention additional elements.

    The studies on it have been laughably bad, which is why they have resulted in no conclusion. Designing a quality study of minimum wage would be unbearably hard. But it doesn't matter since the theory is directly emergent from the math of the laws of supply and demand, which has been demonstrated correct countless times.


    FYI even the Seattle thing isn't a test. There are sooooooooooooooooo many confounding factors. Just once I wish a city would put minimum wage to the actual test. They could do it by declaring a $50 minimum wage for all businesses immediately. That would be enough to mitigate the confounding factors. And then we'd watch real-time as econometrics show their snarling teeth.
  72. #972
    Another aspect I forgot to mention is that when "rights" are done the wrong way, they hurt the group they're meant to help on the rebound. An example is that when gay rights are done in such a way that hinders religious rights, what happens 30 or 60 years down the road when religious people, who also happen to be gay, are having their religious rights stepped on because of new abuses of religious rights that have precedent in the abuse of religious rights by the antecedent approach to advancing gay rights that hindered religious rights?

    There is a corollary in the "first they came for....but I wasn't a....so I did nothing...then they came for...." thing. Granting gay rights by harming religious rights is not the answer. Perpetuated divide and conquer is how free societies are systematically subverted. The fact that I believe this is why I'm a defender of Christians in the matter, even though I think they're wrong in their antagonism of gay marriage and that gays are right to want more freedoms. I don't agree with the anti-gay-marriage Christians, but I agree even less with how they've been defeated since I think that's gonna come back and bite us in the ass.
    Last edited by wufwugy; 02-11-2016 at 01:12 AM.
  73. #973
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    No, it is cut and dry. There is no harm, period.

    The family idea behind marriage has been debunked countless times and isn't worth discussing. The short answer is bullshit, because old infertile men can marry, there has never been a babies requirement for marriage, and no state has ever suggested this be the case. Christianity ideas (which don't actually have a biblical basis in this case) don't enter the picture. The argument is a cop out, because "it's tradition, so fuck em" didn't work.

    The gay cake thing. That's about discrimination laws and is not exclusive to gays or their ability to marry. The same result would occur if they refused a black couple based on religious liberty. This isn't a result of gay marriage, or being "pro gay rights", it's about civil rights and discrimination which is a whole beast of another topic. You can't so much as touch another coworker without potentially getting in some shit, and God forbid a call center be found to be engaging in a practice with a disparate impact on minorities.

    Your third point. The real world does not have safe spaces. This is the information age, and if you engage in an unpopular practice you are going to be ridiculed for it. Again, this is regardless of the issue. Whether it be about cop shootings, the uber med student, or high school students wearing the n-word, that shit comes out.


    Fourth, the scotus sometimes needs to step in to be the voice of the minority. Regardless of how it happened though, there is no harm.

    No one is forced to marry anyone. No one is forced to attend their service. No one is forced to suck anyone's dick. This whole thing was about a completely legal process and the ability to get what legally results from that process. Comm unity property in divorce, beneficiary status, tax breaks, seeing loved ones in hospitals, being able to adopt a kid...and have both people be considered his parent. Yes there is a ceremony thing to it as well, but that is not exclusively christian!!! You cannot tell me that Christian white weddings are holy while ignoring the "Vegas wedding". You cannot say religion is the primary motivation for marriage when divorce is more than 50%.

    A lot of this comes from a different fact. It's one that many have forgotten, because it predated the above arguments. This issue didn't start out with "protect sanctity of marriage" and "gotta procreate". It started with name calling. It started with jail, with homelessness, with being victimized again and again. Then when we started gaining ground, that's when these arguments started up. Its when "screw fags" became "but tradition". You never heard about things like "marriage is about procreation" or "what will the Christians think" before this time. The fact of the matter is that we were fighting against bad people. Muslims got married, jews got married, fuck in some states people married their cousins. Why does it suddenly matter now, at this time, what was "christian" or not? When was consistency with Christian belief ever a pillar of marriage in america...where religion was not a prerequisite before?

    The hate gays group likes pointing to leviticus, but if they were sincere in their religious basis they'd know why that was a bad argument. The fact is that you cannot argue for hatred by using hatred, you gotta dress it up as something else. Everyone who evercommitted horrible acts against a group always did so with fake rationale guiding them. This fight was no different.

    Now where I agree with you. Yes, it would have been better if people changed on their own without a scotus opinion Yes, discrimination laws are bogus, and need reform. And yes, most people are good at heart and (I know from experience), even bad people arnt really tht bad.

    But are we better for it? And why were people ever really opposed to it?
  74. #974
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    It's not speculation. The theory is beyond solid. It's theory of evolution level solid. It's made solid by the arithmetic alone, not to mention additional elements.

    The studies on it have been laughably bad, which is why they have resulted in no conclusion. Designing a quality study of minimum wage would be unbearably hard. But it doesn't matter since the theory is directly emergent from the math of the laws of supply and demand, which has been demonstrated correct countless times.


    FYI even the Seattle thing isn't a test. There are sooooooooooooooooo many confounding factors. Just once I wish a city would put minimum wage to the actual test. They could do it by declaring a $50 minimum wage for all businesses immediately. That would be enough to mitigate the confounding factors. And then we'd watch real-time as econometrics show their snarling teeth.
    But there is no data supporting it, isn't that right? Evolution theory had the data, it's no where near the same. You can kill 100 cockroaches and literally watch evolution in action.

    All you got is what economists think will happen. But there isndisagreement, and there is enough disagreement that states are willing to risk their prosperity to test it.

    A question I have for you though is this. If the factors behind what's happening in Seattle and so many other cities are complex and difficult to fully grasp...how is the anti min wage theory so perfectly accounting for them all? As a chemist and mathematician, I've used equations with multiple inputs before. It's very difficult to track what happens and figure it all out. But I also know that real life has a way of fucking with out theoretical assumptions.
  75. #975
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Another aspect I forgot to mention is that when "rights" are done the wrong way, they hurt the group they're meant to help on the rebound. An example is that when gay rights are done in such a way that hinders religious rights, what happens 30 or 60 years down the road when religious people, who also happen to be gay, are having their religious rights stepped on because of new abuses of religious rights that have precedent in the abuse of religious rights by the antecedent approach to advancing gay rights that hindered religious rights?

    There is a corollary in the "first they came for....but I wasn't a....so I did nothing...then they came for...." thing. Granting gay rights by harming religious rights is not the answer. Perpetuated divide and conquer is how free societies are systematically subverted. The fact that I believe this is why I'm a defender of Christians in the matter, even though I think they're wrong in their antagonism of gay marriage and that gays are right to want more freedoms. I don't agree with the anti-gay-marriage Christians, but I agree even less with how they've been defeated since I think that's gonna come back and bite us in the ass.
    What about the religious freedom of gays? Where is respect for their freedom when their interpretation of a religious marriage permits gay marriage?

    To tldr my last post, Christians don't decide what marriage is or isnt. No one talks about the other half of America thay was offended that gays couldn't marry. It was only this smaller half that seemed to matter. They wanted to essentially have a safe space called marriage, where only they got to decide who got in...butarrange has never worked like that

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