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**** Elections thread *****

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  1. #3376
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    I'm a little saddened since my prediction that Trump was always up and would win the 353 would be tainted by this new colossus bombshell that could be so bad that it results in a type of rarely seen "no show" landslide on election day (per the opinion of an unnamed pollster).

    Well, at least you can take solace in the fact that this isn't true anymore.

    Now you just have to fade your bold prediction ...
  2. #3377
    Quote Originally Posted by oskar View Post
    Here's why I'm not so sure about that: If I was someone who was going to vote for Trump and someone asked me who I was going to vote for, I would not tell them that I'm going to vote Trump.
    If the shy Trump effect is real, who's to say there isn't an equal shy Clinton effect? It might be hard to imagine from overseas, but people are no-more loud-and-proud about Hillary as they are about Trump. I live in a deep blue county and there are far more Trump signs than Clinton signs. If a polling service calls Judy in Jesusville, North Carolina who lives in a staunch pro-life, pro-guns family but can't stomach Trump's comments on women, then who's to say she's not going to whisper into the receiver, "I'm not sure yet," and then take a Clinton vote to her grave?

    But I don't know what the actual statistics would be, of course.

    As much as anything, I'm worried for the same reason I've been worried since 538 had Clinton as a 9:1 favorite. If I were all-in OTT and my opponent had 5 outs, and the price for losing the hand was that Donald Trump would be president for the next 4 years, I'd be like, "Oh fuck me, please no Ace or 7, please no Ace or 7."

    Now that plenty of swing states are well within the margin of error and with this being a super fucky polling cycle in terms of numbers of undecideds and where allegiances won't align to traditional assumptions about demographics or even party affiliation, there's just a lot that can go wrong (or right, depending on your perspective obviously).

    I still think Clinton winning 300+ is more likely than Trump winning 270, but unfortunately that 270 (or even 269) number is right at the cusp of, "Shit that very well could happen."
  3. #3378
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    I can see him possibly winning too. I think it will be pretty close, but gawd I hope he doesn't win.
    Meh, I'm confident in a landslide victory at least as much as I'm worried about a Trump victory. I'd probably put it at close to 50% chance Hillary castrates Trump, 30% chance Trump wins (since the Comey absolution seems to be having a more immediate normalizing effect than I would have guessed), with the remaining 20% chance that it's a close Clinton win.

    The interesting (stroke: scary) thing is that the 20% close-Hillary-win outcome is scary in its own ways. In these cases we usually say "We're in for a long night," but in this case, I don't think I'm being too nutty or dramatic to say we'd be in for a long week or even month. I don't see Trump being in any rush to give a concession speech, and we'd all have to sit with bated breath hoping the inevitable tantrum doesn't go past a Twitter scuffle and maybe a few C- and B- words being dropped on the new president elect.

    Isn't it fun that we even have to consider such things?
  4. #3379
    Now, after months of a successful self-ban from this thread, I await the inevitable regret that will come with joining in.

    Don't leave me disappointed, Wuf!
  5. #3380
    a500lbgorilla's Avatar
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    Voting tomorrow.

    Clinton.
    Toomey.
    Rothfus.
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  6. #3381
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    The Shy Clinton effect is real. Both candidates are among the most unpopular we've ever seen. IIRC, they might be exactly the most unpopular we've ever seen.
  7. #3382
    JKDS's Avatar
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    Perhaps this will be Wuf's new avatar?
  8. #3383
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    Quote Originally Posted by boost View Post
    I heard a interview with him a few months back, and he definitely didn't seem to be pro trump. He seemed to be convinced that Trump is intentionally using hypnosis, and he seemed to be in awe of his ability to do so, but he definitely didn't come across as pro Trump.

    But I've only read a few posts on his blog, and not for a while now, so maybe you have a better read of him.
    It's posts like these that make me look at the screen sideways:

    "I would argue that alcohol consumption is the biggest risk differential in this election. We’re just blind to that risk because alcohol is socially acceptable. But even in your own life, you see alcohol being the force behind unwanted pregnancies, drunk driving, bar fights, domestic abuse, sexual abuse, and just about every bad decision you’ve ever made. If we humans were even a little bit objective we would never select a leader who is likely to be impaired by alcohol several hours per week, including the workday. (Allegedly.)Here’s a quick summary of the other risks, organized by candidate. I’ll rank them from 1-10 with 10 being “drinks alcohol.”"
    LOL OPERATIONS
  9. #3384
    Can someone link me to some sites with decent live coverage of what's going on? UK news sites are awful.
  10. #3385
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    Can someone link me to some sites with decent live coverage of what's going on? UK news sites are awful.
    I'd recommend The Young Turks on YouTube. Coverage starts at 1pm est
  11. #3386
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    Vietnam is 11 hours ahead so the election should be getting to the good stuff as I wake up tomorrow. I'm not sure I will sleep.
    LOL OPERATIONS
  12. #3387
    Quote Originally Posted by BankItDrew View Post
    I'd recommend The Young Turks on YouTube. Coverage starts at 1pm est
    I just realised I'll be at work through pretty much all of it, thanks though.
  13. #3388
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    It's posts like these that make me look at the screen sideways:

    "I would argue that alcohol consumption is the biggest risk differential in this election. We’re just blind to that risk because alcohol is socially acceptable. But even in your own life, you see alcohol being the force behind unwanted pregnancies, drunk driving, bar fights, domestic abuse, sexual abuse, and just about every bad decision you’ve ever made. If we humans were even a little bit objective we would never select a leader who is likely to be impaired by alcohol several hours per week, including the workday. (Allegedly.)Here’s a quick summary of the other risks, organized by candidate. I’ll rank them from 1-10 with 10 being “drinks alcohol.”"
    Context? Posts like this are in the very least thought provoking. Maybe he's stretching it, but I think his point about alcoholism being social acceptable to the extent that nearly no one is objective about the impacts it has on our lives-- it's thought provoking. But, yeah, without context I think it's an interesting angle to take, and I have no clue who is the alleged alcoholic, and therefore don't know who the implied critique is aimed at.
  14. #3389
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    Quote Originally Posted by boost View Post
    Context? Posts like this are in the very least thought provoking. Maybe he's stretching it, but I think his point about alcoholism being social acceptable to the extent that nearly no one is objective about the impacts it has on our lives-- it's thought provoking. But, yeah, without context I think it's an interesting angle to take, and I have no clue who is the alleged alcoholic, and therefore don't know who the implied critique is aimed at.
    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/1525738...isk-assessment
    LOL OPERATIONS
  15. #3390
    Haha, yeah, he's either trolling or off his rocker.

    I'd like to think trolling, because I've enjoyed some of his posts. He comes at things at interesting angles, and that's really valuable when everyone else is sticking to the script. It's the same reason I love Dan Carlin's Common Sense podcast. However, there's a good chance that being able to come at it from novel angles is a symptom of being some degree of off your rocker-- Dan Carlin being in the safe range of the off your rocker spectrum, and Adams being somewhere in low earth orbit having jettisoned his rocker booster's some time after take off.
  16. #3391
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    Yeah, the more I read it the more I'm like...he's fucking around, right?
    LOL OPERATIONS
  17. #3392
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    If it's true....

    FUCK TOM BRADY
    LOL OPERATIONS
  18. #3393
    I mean it's totally subjective though isn't it? Trump risk #2 is a perfect example: "Might go nuts" (risk of 2 relative to a 10 for Hillary's 'drinks alcohol'). Go nuts? What is the risk if you think he already is nuts? 3? 30? 300?

    Trying to put numbers on these things is the sign of someone who doesn't understand basic things about numbers, like that they're meant to represents facts and be objectively comparable to one another (i.e., 10 is 5x worse than 2), not just something you pull out of your ass.
  19. #3394
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    I believe that trump is more likely to win the election, build a wall, and have mexico pay for it than the probability of him never drinking alcohol.

    Bear in mind, hillary will win decidedly, and predictably.
  20. #3395
    Favorite election pic so far:


    Edit: wtf loading pics
    Attached Images
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 11-08-2016 at 02:58 PM.
  21. #3396
    Why is this thread silent?

    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy
    :-\
  22. #3397
    bigred's Avatar
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    This is terrifying.
    LOL OPERATIONS
  23. #3398
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    Ok, I had Hill to win Florida. This is looking less decided and predictable than I decided to predict.
  24. #3399
    Definitely not going to be a decisive victory.

    Florida's done. Ohio soon to follow.

    I actually think she has a better chance in NC right now than VA. The blue counties in NC have been slow as fuck reporting. Fairfax is basically done counting, and Richmond City is the only place she can keep up the lead, and that's not that many votes.

    She has to hold up very strong in the "firewall," and there are some concerning signs, not the least of which is Detroit looking like a disaster so far. Super early, but a disaster so far.
    Last edited by surviva316; 11-08-2016 at 10:21 PM.
  25. #3400
    It's not over yet, but the fact that it is this close, no matter what happens, things aren't going to be normal going forward. Clinton really needed a solid win, if not a landslide for things to regress to the norm.

    And yeah, I actually am a bit terrified. Let's forget about any possible actions President Trump might make-- the most terrifying thing is that he could issue a command and the military could deny to follow it. Worse, part of the military could decline to follow the order, while another part respects his status as commander in chief.

    Fuck.

    Well, interesting times are here-- hope we make it through to the other side.
  26. #3401
    If you extrapolate the votes by county for the ones that haven't been counted yet, Clinton wins NC, but loses Florida.
  27. #3402
    Just eyeballing, but based on which counties have votes left to count, Virginia and PA both look pretty safe.
  28. #3403
    Eyeballing again, but Wisconsin looks bad. Most of the votes in Milwaukee already counted.

    This is gonna be close. Really close.
  29. #3404
    I think Trump will need Arizona + either Nevada or Iowa to win.
  30. #3405
    North Carolina looked good for Hillary for a long time and VA looked--at best--like a nailbiter, but turned out going the exact other way. Now VA's been called with 15% of the vote left to count and NC's looking out of reach. Guess that's why they don't pay me the big bucks.
  31. #3406
    Oh fuck they gave him N. Carolina? I think he's won it all...
  32. #3407
    It's all about the midwest. Apparently the midwest just fucking loves him. White people just eat him up like candy. He even won white women by double digits.
  33. #3408
    Quote Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
    Guess that's why they don't pay me the big bucks.
    Tell me about it. I actually did all the math on NC in excel and had Clinton ending up winning by 100k votes. Whoops.
  34. #3409
    Michigan close again. Why are they so fucking slow to count? I thought their polls closed hours ago.
  35. #3410
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Tell me about it. I actually did all the math on NC in excel and had Clinton ending up winning by 100k votes. Whoops.
    We saw the same exact thing. When 50% of it was reporting and only 10-20% had reported from each of Charlotte, Greensboro and Winston-Salem, it looked like she was going to make up literally close to a million votes.
  36. #3411
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  37. #3412
    Well, I finally got the answer to my question, I guess:

    Quote Originally Posted by 538
    "College-educated white women voted for Clinton 51 percent to 45 percent, but non-college-educated white women voted for Trump 62 percent to 34 percent. That difference is nothing but stark and something we saw inklings of in October, when I wrote about how many Republican women were willing to overlook Trump’s history of sexual harassment allegations and derogatory comments about women."
    I honestly think that's the story of the election.
  38. #3413
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    SJW tears incoming
    Yup.
  39. #3414
    JKDS's Avatar
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    Why is this election so close? THIS IS WHAT YOU GET FOR NOT GOING BERNIE
  40. #3415
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    It's not that close. It was basically called for Trump hours ago.
  41. #3416
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    @Surviva, agreed. The non-college educated women votes turned this election.
    LOL OPERATIONS
  42. #3417
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    Ugh, it's bad enough I'm going to have to deal with Trump on the TV for the next four years. Wuf actually being correct about something is the cherry on top.

    Hi, I'm Bigred
    LOL OPERATIONS
  43. #3418
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    It's not that close. It was basically called for Trump hours ago.
    She has to win every flip that's left. I tend to think she has PA, despite the recent flip to Trump's favor, just because there's 300k worth of margin left to be counted in Allegheny (but see my gaffe in NC, so who knows). NH is like 7 votes apart. She's gaining in MI and for the moment, has the lead in NV (but haven't checked the precinct map).

    If she wins every single flip (which you can't have much confidence in given her underperformance to this point), it's a 269 tie, and it goes to state vote. I tend to think Trump doesn't have enough support within his own party to win, but they do own most the states and they might just fall in line.

    It looks very very bad for her, and it has for almost two hours at this point.
    Last edited by surviva316; 11-09-2016 at 12:24 AM.
  44. #3419
    Quote Originally Posted by bigred View Post
    Ugh, it's bad enough I'm going to have to deal with Trump on the TV for the next four years. Wuf actually being correct about something is the cherry on top.
    Lol, you're actually worried about the gloating?
  45. #3420
    I know I'm not breaking news here, but Michigan continues to look bad for Clinton. She basically only has Washtenaw county (home of Ann Arbor) left to outpace, not only a 30k deficit, but some red upstate counties. That's the one "flip" that seems notably worse than a flip.
  46. #3421
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  47. #3422
    Well, recreational weed is legal in Vegas, so, there's that at least...
  48. #3423
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    Oh my fucking God. You guys are even fucking bigger idiots than we are. This would be hilarious if it wasn't utterly terrifying.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  49. #3424
    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    Oh my fucking God. You guys are even fucking bigger idiots than we are.
    You're just learning this?
  50. #3425
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    I thought we'd outdone you with Brexit, but then you played your trump card.
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  51. #3426
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    Democracy ain't all its cracked up to be.
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  52. #3427
    inb4 nothing of any real note happens over the next 4 years.

    It's sad times how this will be remembered as some sort of Trump triumph rather than Clinton just being a shit stain on humanity. She should at least provide the lulz and refuse to accept the result.
  53. #3428
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    How long does it take to build a giant wall?
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  54. #3429
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    inb4 nothing of any real note happens over the next 4 years.

    It's sad times how this will be remembered as some sort of Trump triumph rather than Clinton just being a shit stain on humanity. She should at least provide the lulz and refuse to accept the result.
    For someone who pays no attention, what's the deal with Hillary? Why is she a shit stain on humanity?
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  55. #3430
    so when i wake up will america be great again?
  56. #3431
    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    Oh my fucking God. You guys are even fucking bigger idiots than we are. This would be hilarious if it wasn't utterly terrifying.
    Nails it. Suspicions about the majority of the US electorate now confirmed. You are the laughing stock of the world.
  57. #3432
    I was hoping to catch wuf's victory speech before bed.

    Sadly he's nowhere to be seen.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  58. #3433
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bean Counter View Post
    Nails it. Suspicions about the majority of the US electorate now confirmed. You are the laughing stock of the world.

    A lot of powerful people are really unhappy with this outcome. For the disaffected voter, that was reason enough to vote for Trump. It's not laughable, but entirely logical.
  59. #3434
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    I'm not powerful but I am disaffected, yet I still fail to see the logic. Nor am I laughing.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  60. #3435
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    I guess it's similar to brexit. A lot of people aren't happy with the status quo and see one option as sticking with the tried and tested that they feel has failed them so far, and the other as something different that might shake things up a bit.
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  61. #3436
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    I'm not powerful but I am disaffected, yet I still fail to see the logic. Nor am I laughing.
    Do you know what disaffected means?

    Clinton was one of the most unanimously establishment-backed candidates in U.S. political history. And in a time when approval for the government is at record lows. The Trump voters would have chosen a pickled corpse over the likes of her. As would I have, had I lived in a state that mattered.
  62. #3437
    It's logical for sure. People are looking for something different to the norm, plus they falsely think it will solve the problems in their own lives. I was only saying last night that, assuming Clinton wins, Trump's near miss and Brexit should make politicians sit up and take note of the sheer volume of people disaffected with politics. The fact that they are willing to vote for somebody as idiotic as Trump just screams desperation.

    What's really baffling though is the logic behind your typical Trump voter voting for Trump. There is no way that such an arrogant, ruthless and inappropriate man will improve their standard of living. It's hardly like he's one of the billionaires that turned philanthropist. It would be great if one day soon, we could have a "break from the norm" candidate that isn't a buffoon.

    It's definitely laughable too. Just as long as you don't think about the prospect of that guy being in one of the world's most powerful positions. Hopefully the US legal and political process will prevent him from doing anything too stupid.
  63. #3438
    Seems like an independent candidate really missed an opportunity this year. But I guess there's just too many people that will vote Dem or Rep no matter who the candidate is?
  64. #3439
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    You can blame the DNC for that. Bernie Sanders was exactly that independent candidate, and he would have smoked Trump. Even Joe Biden would have won this election in a landslide. I think one decent thing that may come out of this trash fire of an election is a fundamental restructuring of how the primaries are run, by both parties.
  65. #3440
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    A lot of powerful people are really unhappy with this outcome. For the disaffected voter, that was reason enough to vote for Trump. It's not laughable, but entirely logical.
    Like Michael Moore said, they want to send a big 'fuck you' to the establishment. They don't think about the fact that the corollary to that is four years of Trump.
  66. #3441
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    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    Do you know what disaffected means?

    Clinton was one of the most unanimously establishment-backed candidates in U.S. political history. And in a time when approval for the government is at record lows. The Trump voters would have chosen a pickled corpse over the likes of her. As would I have, had I lived in a state that mattered.
    Yes I do. Being disaffected doesn't mean your first option is to just not give a fuck and toss your toys out of the pram. There are far worse options than more of the same old.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  67. #3442
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    My god, wuf was right

    I think we fucked up, guys
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  68. #3443
    Looks like Trump will barely win the popular vote. About 150k advantage at this time.
  69. #3444
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  70. #3445
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    This is an interesting read. Very much reminds me of the situation in the UK and brexit. No idea how true or relevant it is, but I imagine it's pretty on point.

    http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-reason...e-talks-about/
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  71. #3446
    The FBI totally fucked Clinton. I bet she would have won if not for that Wiener shit.
  72. #3447
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    The FBI totally fucked Clinton. I bet she would have won if not for that Wiener shit.
    No, I think it might have been her corruption and Satanism that fucked her.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  73. #3448
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    A lot of powerful people are really unhappy with this outcome. For the disaffected voter, that was reason enough to vote for Trump. It's not laughable, but entirely logical.
    "Bad for the bad guys, ergo good for the good guys" isn't "entirely logical." You have maybe spent too much of your focus on studying close-system games :P
  74. #3449
    Quote Originally Posted by The Bean Counter View Post
    There is no way that such an arrogant, ruthless and inappropriate man will improve their standard of living. It's hardly like he's one of the billionaires that turned philanthropist.
    This is it in a nutshell. Everything Joe the Steelworker was worried about might be the case for Clinton was even more worrisome for Trump. People are worried about cronyism and corruption in a Clinton presidency; Trump has a plethora of conflicting business and political interests and was the first candidate in over 40 years to not release his tax returns so we could see what those might be. Clinton's accused of being funded with dirty money; Trump's own foundation isn't even a licensed and audited entity and investigative reporting reveals he'd been using it for his own personal and corporate use. Clinton is a grandma who mishandled classified information by checking emails on a personal device; Trump has so little self control his campaign manager has to change his Twitter password in 48 hours before the election. Clinton is a ruthless, two-faced political machine; Trump is a solipsistic billionaire who prides himself on his shrewd business tactics of pumping and dumping, scamming small business owners, and exploiting blue-collar employees (again, all verified fact).

    And this is the narrative Hillary failed to convey in either the debates or the ads. Assuming she had the lead, she just tried to run out the clock. For fear of even *risking* a pyrrhic she passed the opportunity to go tit-for-tat on scandals and ad hominems, she pretended to take the high ground, while literally laughing him off and using fancy code words like "temperament" to take her pot-shots.

    But anyone who gives a shit about making menstruation jokes or making insensitive comments about handicapped people wasn't going to vote Trump to begin with! When Trump could only counter "You've committed sexual assault," with "Yeah, but you *enable* sexual assault," Trump lost favor; she could have gone down the line and vitiated every one of his Trump cards, and that would have been an actually effective way to run out the clock on the things could actually have affected her chances.

    Instead, she sat back and actually *helped* Trump write the narrative that, "I've got a dozen charges against her being corrupt, and the only thing she's got on me is that I'm not PC enough for her precious sensibilities."
  75. #3450
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    The FBI totally fucked Clinton. I bet she would have won if not for that Wiener shit.
    Everything started to normalize after Comey's absolution, and it looked like if given enough time to get more post-Comey data, things would have been back to how they were.

    It obviously couldn't have helped, but something much more fundamental was going on for her to lose Wis-fucking-consin. White people just fucking hated her, and not enough of her target demographic gave a shit about what she was selling them (thanks to uneducated white women favoring Trump by *28 points*!!)

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