**** Elections thread *****

[wufwugy]

bush will not recover. my guess is establishment goes to christie. rubio will probably only get full establishment support at last resort.

won't matter though. the establishment vote will account for <40%. they need to coalesce around one candidate to have a chance, but if the anti-establishment coalesces around one candidate, that candidate will win. im guessing it will be cruz.

[wufwugy]

it's amazing that the moderators acting like such children while trump reigned in his more bombastic tendencies ended up making trump look like a wizened adult in comparison.

[JKDS]

cnbc's disdain for republicans was on full display last night. im not sure i can blame the network or mainstream journalists. their audiences like democrats and hate republicans.

it's amazing that the moderators acting like such children while trump reigned in his more bombastic tendencies ended up making trump look like a wizened adult in comparison.

I watched the first half hour then turned it off. Might go back and watch the rest later, idk. The moderators set the tone real quick by skipping the "introductions" step, and going right into attacks. Then they decided to change up the typical format, and refuse to give people the chance to rebut or comment on another candidate's answers. It really did seem like all they were interested in was painting them in a bad light, right from the gate.

Or maybe they were hoping that by turning it into a fight, they'd drive ratings up for a channel which many cant access. Idk. The other two debates at least gave the appearance of objective moderating tho

[wufwugy]

I watched the first half hour then turned it off. Might go back and watch the rest later, idk. The moderators set the tone real quick by skipping the "introductions" step, and going right into attacks. Then they decided to change up the typical format, and refuse to give people the chance to rebut or comment on another candidate's answers. It really did seem like all they were interested in was painting them in a bad light, right from the gate.

Or maybe they were hoping that by turning it into a fight, they'd drive ratings up for a channel which many cant access. Idk. The other two debates at least gave the appearance of objective moderating tho

the reasons i think the moderators acted like this are mainly twofold: (1) they're team democrat. im not sure who among them would even consider voting in a republican primary. (2) theyre celebrities and personalities themselves, so they want the spotlight as well. a far more entertaining debate wouldn't even have moderators who allocate questions like this and instead would have referees who keep the time and fair play and just let the candidates wrestle it out. this strategy has been proposed before, but no hosts want to do it because the hosts themselves want attention.

[JKDS]

I mean, even the CNN one didnt appear like it was super heavy anti-repub like this one

[a500lbgorilla]

Ted Cruzin' and a brusin'

[wufwugy]

I mean, even the CNN one didnt appear like it was super heavy anti-repub like this one

reading a ben domenech article and he has a better theory than mine: these particular moderators are hacks.

it’s not the ideology that’s a problem, it’s faction. You could have an absolutely fair and interesting debate moderated by Chris Hayes, Ezra Klein, Melissa Harris-Perry, and Stephen Colbert, even if all are personally to the left of the moderators last night when it comes to policy. Why? Because none of them are in the faction of being giant hacks. The problem with last night’s moderators was not an ideological problem, it was a hack problem.

http://thefederalist.com/2015/10/29/...ght-they-were/

[boost]

Yeah, I only tuned in for 10 minutes, and my take away was that the moderation was awful.

[boost]

Game over, Hilary.

[wufwugy]

can't stop loling. he's out on the streets, spitting that flavor

https://soundcloud.com/abcpolitics/ben-carson-radio-ad

[wufwugy]

getting bullish on christie. he can become the establishment favorite and he's one of the few i think has the political skills to win the nomination. he's got a handful of great things on policy. i kinda hate how anti-pot he is though.

[JKDS]

getting bullish on christie. he can become the establishment favorite and he's one of the few i think has the political skills to win the nomination. he's got a handful of great things on policy.

He's just got a bad image. All people remember about him is that he's the "new jersey bridge douche". Ppl remember that, and ignore how he's the 2nd best at connecting emotionally in his speaches. (Rubio wins that prize)

Rubio has bad things too, but you don't fuck with a person's commute. That shit inspires ire, and will never be forgotten...even if he wasn't actually involved at all

[JKDS]

You guys see the snl Democrat debate? Was hit aND miss, but the hits were worth it Imo

[wufwugy]

you mean the larry david one?

i think christie can survive the bridge scandal. it hasnt and it probably won't be proven that he knew about it. the worst of it is an inference that he surrounds himself with people like that or that he gives his team the type of aura, but that's a little too dissociated to have any lasting harm imo. the donor class doesn't like it at all though, but they would change if he were to redeem himself politically, which he may be doing right now

[JKDS]

Im just saying, I'm not all that involved, like most voters, yet I remember this.

Like, people don't even know what socialist means anymore. Everyone knows what a 1hr delay to and from work is tho

[wufwugy]

he's got a tough as shit road for sure. it's possible he could have a better chance of it than rubio. rubio's got problems that you don't see much of from the outside. every faction has reasons to dislike some of his policies. even though he sounds like a real adept wonk, he's actually one of the least strong on policies candidates the gop has, as his stuff is sort of a convoluted smorgasbord, showing that it's not rooted in much understanding or conviction.

[wufwugy]

if christie could come in and cut entitlement spending, cut supply restricting taxes, cut regulations, and cut the monopolistic strangleholds on education (all stuff they say he focused on in jersey), id consider it a presidency well done.

[wufwugy]

the story on christie is one of corruption and cronyism. i really dont know one way or the other

[Renton]

Republican presidential hopeful Ben Carson believes the Egyptian pyramids were used for grain.

In a college commencement speech 17 years ago, Carson told the graduates of Andrews University in Michigan that it is his "personal" belief that the pyramids were built as storehouses for grain and not, as archaeologists say, for the interment of dead pharaohs.

"My own personal theory is that Joseph built the pyramids to store grain," Carson said in taped remarks first reported by Buzzfeed on Wednesday. "Now all the archeologists think that they were made for the pharaohs' graves. But, you know, it would have to be something awfully big if you stop and think about it."

This guy could be the next president of the United States...

[wufwugy]

fwiw i think assessing value of a presidential candidate based on things like that is bad. there are all sorts of issues where the president doesn't have much of any effect. judging them based on their understanding or beliefs of those issues is a sorting mechanism, but a simplistic one at best and dangerous one at worst.

it doesnt matter if the president thinks the earth is 6000 years old (carson doesnt, btw) because very little of what he can do will affect things related to that belief. but it really matters if he thinks things like monetary policy doesn't affect nominal gdp or that the reason for a bad economy is a mythical bubble or that the reason jobs arent bountiful is tech advances like atm's or that an effective way to increase income for the poor is to decrease demand for labor for the poor (all things obama believes, all things much worse for the nation than if he believed in aliens, grain pyramids, or jesus riding dinosaurs).

also this stuff is a very lefty sjw type attack. way to marginalize anything somebody says no matter how accurate it may be by pointing at something else they believe that isnt a socially acceptable belief

also carson may or may not still think that. he has openly admitted to changing a lot of his beliefs. his beliefs on vaccines and the age of the earth are examples of reasoned positions came to through knowing that there's a line to tread

[Renton]

No doubt. I would still vote for carson over hillary or bernie. It just blows my mind how unexceptional some of these people that are truly in the running to be the next president are.

I just read the waitbutwhy posts about the first 24 presidents (up until McKinley). There were a lot of crummy presidents in the late 1800s but they were all formidable human beings. Almost every president in the 50 years after Lincoln was a general in the civil war, spoke an absurd number of languages, and was an immensely well-educated and accomplished person. It's a pretty stark comparison to the sad sacks we have to deal with today.

Anyway, I don't think carson is a real candidate. He just feels too much like a one month fluke like how Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain were #1 for a month in 2011 before the pre-eminent candidate took over the polls. The major difference this time is that there is no such pre-eminent guy. We all thought it was Bush, but Bush appears to be done. I'd bet on Rubio or Cruz.

[wufwugy]

i am astounded at the total nonsense the media is attacking carson with. the tactics used to discredit his past are the types of things that kindergartens think holds sway. all logic goes out the window when it comes to attacking a republican. especially a black one.

on the other hand, sanders is irreproachable. it doesn't matter how factually inaccurate or logically unsound the things he says are, he's blames the rich and cares deeply for the non-rich therefore he's always right.

[wufwugy]

all i can say on the media narrative around carson is that it has been wrong every step of the way and is likely to be wrong about its predictions now.

for example, even now as several in the conservative media are beginning to see that carson does have some presidential abilities with things like strong campaign organizational skills, they're still saying "yeah but this other thing over here, he's bad at that. ignore the fact that we have been continually wrong about carson and are continually having to say so".

now they're saying that the real problem of carson is that he doesn't have policy depth and he'll get eaten alive in the debates when they get smaller. the irony is that what the media thinks is policy depth actually isn't policy depth. soundbites and explaining things in establishment-speak is not policy depth. i wouldnt be surprised if carson has even more real policy depth than anybody on the stage. one way of seeing this is that the way he talks about issues shows that his beliefs are rooted in philosophical understanding. contrast this to rubio, who's all over the place philosophically. rubio sounds like a well-oiled machine on policy, but his real understanding of it is likely less than appearances. of course this harkens back to the fact that many in the media themselves are philosophically inconsistent on policy, so they don't know what policy depth looks like.

carson may not do well with establishment-speak, but he kills it in conservative-speak. it's a unique talent that you will almost never hear the media point out (ive seen it only once). to those who understand conservative-speak, carson's rise was never a surprise.

carson's humility and demeanor are such an incredible strength that they could propel him to an actual, true landslide where where he wins everything the gop wins as well as michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, and minnesota. all the while the media will be baffled that this happened. they'll have forgotten that the media is culturally new yorkian and coastal californian, and the rest of the country doesn't think the way they do. carson is the type of candidate who can bring the silent majority back. a large majority of voters find great virtue in a man who walks the walk even if he can't talk the talk. but carson does talk the talk. he just doesn't bluster, so the media thinks he's no good.



TLDR: the media says hillary would crush carson in the debates. what would really happen is her team would come away high-fiving each other at how brilliant and dominant she was, but then two days later their jaws would hit floor when the polls came back showing that people are not impressed by an elitist's snazzy rhetorical attempts to undress a man of great accomplishment and even greater humility.

[wufwugy]

in this frame, bernie is an opposite of carson. bernie suffered in the debate because of how unpolished he was. the left bases its decisions mostly on sophistication of rhetoric and demeanor. it's no wonder hillary whooped his ass. the left fears embarrassment more than anything. their heroes are people like obama: refined and clever. there's no embarrassing him because he's got all his bases covered.

the right couldn't care less about being embarrassed, because externalities do not embarrass their heroes. the outlaw josey wales emanates his strength without trying and is unfazed by the opinions of others. the left needs to win the argument, the right doesn't care about the argument.

[wufwugy]

I've never in my life seen such an agenda by the media to destroy somebody's character. They're unruly, condescending children. The tactic of lying and misdirection and turning molehills into mountains usually works, but it won't this time. No serious person thinks what Carson said about West Point is misleading.

The Gotcha! Journalism is only a symptom of the problem. Their agenda is to mold the world into their authoritarian social justice view, as evidenced by how they turn a blind eye to those who support greater central control and equalizing of outcomes while screaming like a banshee at anybody who efficaciously promotes freedom and responsibility.

[JKDS]

Who watchin the debate with me?

[wufwugy]

me

[wufwugy]

kasich needs to get his dumpy ass off the stage

kudos to cruz for being the only one up there who seems to understand one of the most important issues there is: monetary policy. i wish he could get on this stuff without appealing to gold bugs though. when he says "rules based policy" and points out how the fed's tightening created the 08 financial crisis, he's saying things in line with monetary experts.

[JKDS]

My stream was choppy, im gonna try and watch it tomorrow. From what little I saw, a lot of the candidates look like a bunch of babies (Jeb especially). "Wah wah, I was promised time, gimme time, I got no time yesturday". No one wants a president thats gonna go to another country and pout about how things arent fair.

[spoonitnow]

[spoonitnow]

Two things:

1. Ben Carson is a fucking joke, and the only reason Trump hasn't completely destroyed the guy is just so that he can do so later closer to the primaries because he's such a ridiculously easy target.

2. Bernie Sanders' biggest problem is the same problem that Jeb Bush has, and that's that he's a total pussy.

I like Trump's position that we should drastically increase the tax on bagged shredded cheese. Make America grate again.

[wufwugy]

i lold.

trump will leave the race before carson. carson's base of support is extremely strong. trump's is afraid to even admit it to live pollsters.

[boost]

i lold.

trump will leave the race before carson. carson's base of support is extremely strong. trump's is afraid to even admit it to live pollsters.

Sauce on the live poll discrepancy? I feel like that's an awesome punchline to a joke that would be overheard at a statistician's conference.

[wufwugy]

sorry can't find a source. im not sure if anybody has written about it. it's something that some of the statisticians on With All Due Respect (the only poli show i watch) have mentioned more than once. i forget their names.

basically, in robo polls, trump scores noticeably better relative to other candidates than in live polls.

[wufwugy]

the probability of trump exiting the race before NH is >50% imo. the probability of carson exiting the race before NH is <20%.

[wufwugy]

i think im picking cruz to win the nomination.

[wufwugy]

it should be noted that if you're against sjw victimhood culture, you should be against trump. he is one of the kings of using victimhood and sjw bullshit to his own advantage. a trump presidency would not be what it takes to get the country on a positive path.

[wufwugy]

if trump gets elected it wouldn't be from disaffected or fed-up voters setting things straight. it would be from the electorate engaging in the same type of reasoning that has caused the problems we're currently in. that reasoning would involve a propping up of policy ignorance, behavioral dissonance, and superficial stardom. it's the same shit that got us obama.

[wufwugy]

>50% that trump's asinine attacks on carson are the beginning of the end for the trump campaign. all his previous attacks on others worked partly because they came from a position of strength and were moderately reasonable. this however does not come from strength and looks more unhinged than usual.

granted i dont think we're gonna see how badly trump is going to perform until the IA caucuses. cherry red marker is written on the wall, saying he's going to underperform the polls and perceptions. when that happens it's basically game over. the only way he could survive that is if his numbers were still big enough that his typically bigger polls in NH could give him reason to think he would win that.

[wufwugy]

>30% that trump underperforms the IA polls by a fat two digits. he'd exit within days due to how much of a clown he would look like.

[spoonitnow]

>50% that trump's asinine attacks on carson are the beginning of the end for the trump campaign. all his previous attacks on others worked partly because they came from a position of strength and were moderately reasonable. this however does not come from strength and looks more unhinged than usual.

granted i dont think we're gonna see how badly trump is going to perform until the IA caucuses. cherry red marker is written on the wall, saying he's going to underperform the polls and perceptions. when that happens it's basically game over. the only way he could survive that is if his numbers were still big enough that his typically bigger polls in NH could give him reason to think he would win that.

[spoonitnow]

Trump's strategy of letting Carson hang around in the #2 spot for a little while because he's such an easy target to blow out of the water is coming full circle. He's now starting to let Carson have it, and Carson's numbers are bombing while Trump's increase.

[a500lbgorilla]

So masterful is his tactic that even NPR is licking his balls now.

http://www.npr.org/2015/11/10/455331...-beat-the-game

[wufwugy]

So masterful is his tactic that even NPR is licking his balls now.

http://www.npr.org/2015/11/10/455331...-beat-the-game

i see where trump learned how to speak

"I put [him] down at the end of the hall. He didn't know how to make a bed. He didn't know how to shine his shoes. He had a problem, you know, with being a cadet. You know, being a cadet, you gotta take care of yourself," Dobias said.

[wufwugy]

Trump's strategy of letting Carson hang around in the #2 spot for a little while because he's such an easy target to blow out of the water is coming full circle. He's now starting to let Carson have it, and Carson's numbers are bombing while Trump's increase.

i need to know where you get your information

[a500lbgorilla]

i see where trump learned how to speak

Listen to the audio. It's just some guy and it's pretty natural speech.

[a500lbgorilla]

Spoon, you got any Armenian ancestry in you?

[a500lbgorilla]

i see where trump learned how to speak

And honestly though, that piece paints a great picture of the guy. Obsessive to the point of success, dominant over all his peers, a ladies' man... They check every single box for the intangibles of leadership even to the point where one guy worships him so much that he has a Donny Trump pullstring doll that he takes advice from.

[spoonitnow]

Spoon, you got any Armenian ancestry in you?

German and Cherokee here. What a mix.

[spoonitnow]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - After a week in which he hosted Saturday Night Live and stood center-stage at a Republican debate, Donald Trump is surging among Republicans likely to cast votes in the party’s presidential primary.

According to the five-day rolling Reuters/Ipsos presidential poll, Trump has leapt some 17 percentage points among likely Republican voters since Nov. 6, when he was essentially tied with Ben Carson at about 25 percent. Trump now captures 42 percent of those voters while Carson has fallen off slightly.

Damn, if only someone had predicted this.

Trump's strategy of letting Carson hang around in the #2 spot for a little while because he's such an easy target to blow out of the water is coming full circle. He's now starting to let Carson have it, and Carson's numbers are bombing while Trump's increase.

[wufwugy]

you're seeing the snl boost. it had nothing to do with trump saying things about carson. you should be looking more at the latest new hampshire poll, where trump does quite well. granted, he has always been top in nh and carson has always not been so hot.

the only way trump wins iowa is if the evangelical vote splits.

[spoonitnow]

Trump takes Iowa eaaaaaasily, by at least 12-15 percent over second place, who will not be Carson.

[The Bean Counter]

Had to do a double-check to make sure I was reading the BBC website, rather than the dailymash with this one. This guy is hilarious (sorry if this has already been discussed):


Trump 'would consider closing US mosques'
Posted at 21:56
US Republican presidential candidate and businessman Donald Trump has said he would consider closing mosques in the US.

"I would hate to do it, but it's something that you're going to have to strongly consider," Mr Trump told MSNBC.

He said the US would have to "watch" and "study" mosques because "lots of talk is going on" in them, and warned that US citizens would have to prepare to give up certain civil liberties.

[wufwugy]

bush could win by way of foreign policy. the 'war weariness" of the country is mostly among internet clackers; after as bad as isis has gotten and the paris attacks, w bush's foreign policy isnt going to be remembered negatively by any other than the clackers; and hw bush is viewed as a hero on foreign policy. jeb could easily tap into that, and if he outperforms his polls in iowa (which he almost most likely will if he goes in with the establishment still liking him), that could be his momentum to take the nomination.

[wufwugy]

trump never wins. it would be a miracle for him to break 1/3rd of the votes unless there's some serious spoiler effect going on. new hampshire is the one place that likes him because you can identify as any party to vote in the primary.

[wufwugy]

hu in iowa, carson or jindal or huckabee or cruz eeeeeeeeasily beat trump by at least 60/40.

trump's path to the nomination requires stuff happening that doesn't have the groundwork set to happen. he would need fervent get-out-the-vote followings. he doesnt have that. what he has is people who know his celebrity, who think his campaign is entertaining, and who don't come from any core group or show much fervency of conviction outside of just shaking the bed. you dont win elections by appealing to anger. the gop tried it in 2012.

[JKDS]

Bush lost and isn't coming back. He's so lame in every single debate, and he comes off as lame-pompus. Like a dad lecturing his daughter about the evils of boys and drinking. Hes done.

Trump isn't as much of a fad as you say he is though. His numbers are still strong, and it's been months since he started. He's also far better than anyone up there at the advertising game, and will get tons of support just by playing that system better than them. His visibility is incredibly strong right now, and it's hiding other candidates whod actually have a shot.

It's tough to say if he can beat carson or the other promising ppl tho. Carson will lose if he keeps up this passive quiet bs he's been doing and doesn't learn some simple public speaking skills tho.

[wufwugy]

it's funny, carson's team thinks that's a strength. they want to appear above the fray. it's all about his integrity and humility, mixed with some common sense.

what im saying about trump is that he looks a decent bit stronger than he is. his name recognition is unusually high, his poll respondents are a little sketchy about their support, he's not running a ground campaign (which has always been needed to win), and he very probably has a low ceiling to his supporters.

i dont think bush is likely to come back, but he could based on foreign policy. if bush loses, this is the kinda of race it would look like. so that suggests that he's going to lose.

[wufwugy]

carson's ability to deflect has been underrated. i dont know if he can continue to do it as things ramp up, especially now that foreign policy is a big deal, but he possibly could. his dismantling of the press over his past was pretty effective.

also it can be said that he has been the "real" winner of each debate, as iirc he has gotten the most new followers and searches during and after each debate. i just cant shake the belief that there's a subtle itch in the back of republicans' minds that they want to put a black guy in. they get called racist all the damn time even though theyre not, and theyre tired of it.

[wufwugy]

there's an irony is how republicans are viewed as racist. much of gop policy on issues related to race reflect more of a "post-racism" viewpoint than democratic ones. it's as if they've gotten over it better than the left. but this makes them appear cold to it since they dont bend over backwards to extol the sanctity of civil rights. it's at least a theory.

ofc the media has done a stellar job of painting the gop as anti-civil rights and the democrats as pro-civil rights. that's probably why the democrats have the market cornered on the black vote. it's not about wanting "free stuff", but about fearing loss of hard fought civil rights.

[boost]

Spoiler: Show

[spoonitnow]

I believe Star would call Carson "a fucking coon."

[JKDS]

Hey, Bush got a speaking coach and apparently connected with an audience for once. Maybe hes not as done as I thought he was

[Renton]

I've been avoiding the Carson/Cain parallels for a couple of reasons. First, because sometimes I feel I go a little too far with racial humor considering I grew up around a lot of actual racists and they've undoubtedly had a lot of influence on the way I think. Even though I'm not consciously racist, there's no doubt I am unconsciously so I feel that I have to keep that in check.

And second, because as funny as Carson is, I just don't think he'll ever be as funny or as scary as Cain was.

[spoonitnow]

I've been avoiding the Carson/Cain parallels for a couple of reasons. First, because sometimes I feel I go a little too far with racial humor considering I grew up around a lot of actual racists and they've undoubtedly had a lot of influence on the way I think. Even though I'm not consciously racist, there's no doubt I am unconsciously so I feel that I have to keep that in check.

And second, because as funny as Carson is, I just don't think he'll ever be as funny or as scary as Cain was.

The story of how the media created Cain to have a fun story and then promptly dumped him along with everything that went into that is a super-interesting read.

[spoonitnow]

you're seeing the snl boost. it had nothing to do with trump saying things about carson. you should be looking more at the latest new hampshire poll, where trump does quite well. granted, he has always been top in nh and carson has always not been so hot.

the only way trump wins iowa is if the evangelical vote splits.

loooooooooooooooooooooooooooool

Trump pulls even further ahead, leaving Carson in his fucking dust.

WHO'S NEXT?

[wufwugy]

it's almost as if you should know better than to look only at one outlier pollster while ignoring the several established ones that tell a different story.

[spoonitnow]

it's almost as if you should know better than to look only at one outlier pollster while ignoring the several established ones that tell a different story.

Every single recent poll has Trump kicking the dog shit out of Carson yet again.

The Bush supporters who jumped to Fiorina and then to Carson are jumping to Cruz, and Trump is going to 187 his retarded 5'8" Canadian ass too. He's killing them all one-by-one, and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

[wufwugy]

they show no such thing. they show that trump's support hasnt changed just like has always been the case; and that trump does well in new hampshire while carson doesn't, as has always been the case; and that people are moving to rubio and cruz, likely from carson and bush, which was predicted.

[wufwugy]

check out ur boi in colorado. he's behind rubio! what a chump! this is very, very bad for trump. the worst. he's done, finished. i know many people, big people, smart people, they tell me trump is in freefall.

[spoonitnow]

check out ur boi in colorado. he's behind rubio! what a chump! this is very, very bad for trump. the worst. he's done, finished. i know many people, big people, smart people, they tell me trump is in freefall.

You can tell a lot about a man by who his enemies are, and if the pothead dipshits from Colorado are against Trump, that just means he's winning the election.

[wufwugy]

i lold. your trolling isnt the worst in the world

[wufwugy]

it's possible that surveymonkey is the best pollster out there right now (it got the uk results very right). it has trump in the same range he has been forever (mid-high twenties" and carson losing support while rubio and mainly cruz gain. this makes total sense given political wisdom, too.

[spoonitnow]

Cruz is the Canadian Mr. Bean.

[a500lbgorilla]

Cruz is the cleverest mfer in the Rs today.