Only MERS doesn't spread very well, and so it would actually have to be some kind of hybrid mutant for that to happen.
03-26-2020 02:28 PM
#226
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Only MERS doesn't spread very well, and so it would actually have to be some kind of hybrid mutant for that to happen. | |
03-26-2020 02:30 PM
#227
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Certainly. |
03-26-2020 02:30 PM
#228
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03-26-2020 02:34 PM
#229
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03-26-2020 02:35 PM
#230
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03-26-2020 02:40 PM
#231
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There has been, and still is, a large amount of complacency. It's kind of like when the sea rushed out before the Indian Ocean tsunami arrived. People were curious and walked out onto the exposed shore. Now everyone knows to run for the hills. It took that event for people to understand the threat en masse. This pandemic will serve as the one that taught us not to be so complacent. Next time there's an outbreak in China, I guarantee that everyone buys a 24 pack of bog roll. | |
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03-26-2020 03:03 PM
#232
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Ong, I'm not sure SARS and MERS fizzled out because of anything we did then vs what we did now. I think it was more to do with their particular variables: incubation period, means of spreading, death rate, etc. | |
03-26-2020 03:24 PM
#233
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I think in the case of MERS you're right, but in the case of SARS it was because we acted fast enough. No doubt viral factors are hugely important too, but if we just allowed SARS to spread it would be dreadful. Perhaps it's easier to contain though, but it's also not out of the question that China were too slow to act this time. Or that they did it on purpose, and SARS and MERS were trialed and deemed too dangerous. Depends how paranoid you're feeling really. | |
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03-26-2020 03:28 PM
#234
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If we want to play with conspiracies, it's not the absolute craziest. It's pretty whacky, but China has managed to consolidate the manufacture of a vast amount of the world's medicals supplies, medicines and raw ingredients for medicines. Why displace the reigning world police in a head on conflict when you can simply become the world's medic in an ongoing pandemic? | |
03-26-2020 03:30 PM
#235
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The economic consequences of this are scary enough, but throw in the potential for escalation of a stealth conflict and I think I'm going to be getting through my stockpile of bog roll pretty quickly. | |
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03-26-2020 03:36 PM
#236
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I mean, if this is biowarfare, it's a game changer. You can't nuke them for it, they could release something even deadlier. Virus vs nukes, virus wins. Maybe you could nuke the UK off the map, but not China. You either hit them back with a virus, or you say "ok you win". | |
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03-26-2020 04:20 PM
#237
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Joe Rogan asked Osterholm about the chances this were done on purpose and he said 'no way, you couldn't design something this good if you tried.' | |
03-26-2020 04:24 PM
#238
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I mean, it also seems a bit funny China would set it loose on their own population first. Presumably they'd have some agents take it to a bunch of mass gatherings in other countries and smear it around instead. | |
03-26-2020 04:29 PM
#239
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idk, depends if you want to sew doubt. I mean, perhaps they already had a vaccine, or other method of control, and knew their losses would be within acceptable levels. | |
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03-26-2020 04:34 PM
#240
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Still can't quite see what their endgame would be, unless they think the West wlll go all Mad Max on each other in a global war over toilet paper. If it's economic, it's pretty hard to see a worldwide re/de-pression being good for them - no matter how many meds they sell in the next year or so, they won't make up for it. | |
03-26-2020 04:51 PM
#241
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03-26-2020 04:55 PM
#242
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I guess their endgame is to emerge the dominant economy, with their enemies severely impacted. Either that or it's a show of force, a threat if you like. If they can and will do this, then you either have to up the stakes, which is scary, or just say "ok you win". | |
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03-26-2020 04:56 PM
#243
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Do I think China manufactured the virus? Maybe but probably not. Those wet markets have so many different animals and people packed in tightly. AFAIK, scientists claim that condition can create viruses. |
03-26-2020 05:05 PM
#244
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Well if it was their plan, they picked the perfect time to do it. If they gamed out the fact that Trump in an election year would try to pretend it wasn't happening as long as possible, making the US the hardest hit country, then hat's off to them I guess. | |
03-26-2020 05:22 PM
#245
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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 | |
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03-26-2020 06:35 PM
#246
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https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/h...rus-cases.html | |
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03-26-2020 07:00 PM
#247
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use covid19info.live |
Last edited by wufwugy; 03-26-2020 at 07:03 PM. | |
03-26-2020 07:02 PM
#248
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Europe probably at the beginning of the hump. US could be middle of hump. |
03-26-2020 07:07 PM
#249
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China's recovered rate grew beyond infection rate after about a month. Same in South Korea. |
03-26-2020 08:18 PM
#250
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Yeah. The more people get it, the more people get over it. | |
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03-27-2020 03:30 AM
#251
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I just learned the state of New York (population 19.5M) has 400 ventilators. The city of Helsinki, Finland (population 630k) has 300. And we are worried we're massively unprepared for the coming months. | |
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03-27-2020 07:25 AM
#252
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If everyone in the world catches it within a short time, then yeah we'll get over the hump quickly. Currently < .001% of the world have it, or have had it (if you accept the figures). Could be higher than that, but I think < 1% is a pretty safe bet. | |
03-27-2020 09:39 AM
#253
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China took 39 days to go from ~500 to >80k confirmed cases, and were already leveling off when they reached that figure. | |
03-27-2020 11:37 AM
#254
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When you're just talking base numbers, the US has a lot more population than Italy, but a lot less than China. | |
Last edited by MadMojoMonkey; 03-27-2020 at 11:39 AM.
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03-27-2020 11:50 AM
#255
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The effects of differences in population would change the final numbers, not the rate of increase. 80k is still just over 1% of the entire pop. in Italy for example. The reason it's levelling off there and has levelled off in China is not that they've run out of people who could get sick, it's because they've begun to contain it from spreading. | |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 03-27-2020 at 11:55 AM. | |
03-27-2020 11:59 AM
#256
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If if makes you feel better though, Spain had a similar roughly 160-fold increase in confirmed cases in just 20 days (~400 to 57k) | |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 03-27-2020 at 12:07 PM. | |
03-27-2020 12:21 PM
#257
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on a side note - are a load of junkies going cold turkey since they can't get out to get the drugs? |
03-27-2020 12:21 PM
#258
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You think junkies care about health risks? | |
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03-27-2020 12:41 PM
#259
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No, but the dealers will be a lot more cautious about having people turn up at the house. I went to get weed yesterday before the lockdown got serious. My dealer was cagey about visitors. I imagine there comes a point where he says he's got to stop. Smack dealers have a lot more to worry about than weed dealers. Cops don't care about weed, so long as it's just weed. | |
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03-27-2020 01:02 PM
#260
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I'm sure you two will find a way to make it work. | |
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03-27-2020 01:33 PM
#261
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I bought a month's worth, or at least I spent what I can for the month and have to try and make it last a month. Hopefully there's some degree of normality returned by then. | |
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03-27-2020 01:39 PM
#262
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I think we better be ready for this to go on a while. | |
03-27-2020 01:39 PM
#263
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conundrum for ong ....buy a months worth of weed or some bog roll |
03-27-2020 01:54 PM
#264
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03-27-2020 02:13 PM
#265
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Well, Boris Johnson is confirmed positive. | |
03-27-2020 02:31 PM
#266
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A new national treasure for Ireland. | |
03-27-2020 02:33 PM
#267
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03-27-2020 02:58 PM
#268
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Do you think heads of state would be put in a hospital? I mean, maybe, but I also wouldn't be surprised if the pentagon has a fully functional mini hospital somewhere in the basement just for the president. | |
03-27-2020 03:18 PM
#269
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Dunno, good question. Hard to imagine they'd have such a unit that would be able to give the same amount of care as that place he went when he had the panic attack or whatever it was a while ago (Walter Reed?). | |
03-27-2020 04:26 PM
#270
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03-27-2020 06:57 PM
#271
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03-27-2020 07:14 PM
#272
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03-27-2020 07:31 PM
#273
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Why does "USA NUMBER ONE!!" get met with "well, not in [insert specific niche]", but not denied categorically, or simply with scoffs at the arrogance? It's because much of the world has believed that USA is in fact number one since end the end of WWII. All of it has believed it since 1989. And it's true, because whether people liked it or not, they believed it. Nation states defer to the USA and expect it to be there when shit hits the fan. This isn't me rah-rah-rah'ing for my country, it's simply an assessment of reality: the USA has been the unchecked leader of the developed world for three decades at minimum. | |
Last edited by boost; 03-27-2020 at 07:34 PM. | |
03-27-2020 10:51 PM
#274
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I can't say if Trump is handling the virus well now, but it's a damn sight better than he did at first. |
03-28-2020 01:45 AM
#275
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What's he doing now that is making you reevaluate? | |
03-28-2020 05:04 AM
#276
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I for one have not thought that anytime after Katrina, and nothing since then has changed that belief. The reponse in Puerto Rico reinforced it. Not that I wouldn't expect the US to try to help other countries if there was a disaster there, but just that the effectiveness of that help would be low - i mean if a country can't even manage its own disasters... | |
Last edited by Poopadoop; 03-28-2020 at 05:08 AM. | |
03-28-2020 05:05 AM
#277
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03-28-2020 08:56 AM
#278
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03-28-2020 09:01 AM
#279
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03-28-2020 09:17 AM
#280
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I have to say, I prefer tsunamis to pandemics. Even a meteor would be cool to watch. This is dragging on a bit now, and it's only just getting started. | |
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03-28-2020 12:43 PM
#281
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That's great, I'll add your personal anecdote to the countless other sources. Thanks. | |
03-28-2020 12:44 PM
#282
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03-28-2020 01:37 PM
#283
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He's leading more than he was at first. |
03-28-2020 01:41 PM
#284
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Pandemics experts and economics experts disagree with each other. The President has to make a decision that some experts will believe to be wrong. |
03-28-2020 01:50 PM
#285
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You are good at throwing out the "can you tell me one specific thing" question (which I think is sleight of hand, since a major part of Trumps playbook is to just overwhelm with scandal, making it hard to pick one thing, but I digress...) so I'm going to hold you to it here. No hand waving. How has he stepped up as a leader? What is the substance of those daily briefings that show leadership? What opponents have praised him? No hand waving. | |
03-28-2020 02:03 PM
#286
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Very astute that you noticed that, because you're right. Usually when people have a laundry list of reasons for something, psychological biases are at play. One tool that can help keep views in the concrete realm is to discuss the main big one that's the most important. |
03-28-2020 02:11 PM
#287
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Thanks, that makes sense. But also it makes your previous praise a bit misleading. He's clearing an incredibly low bar. | |
03-28-2020 02:23 PM
#288
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That is definitely true. What do you think is a good way to test the list? |
03-28-2020 02:38 PM
#289
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Every exposure you have to someone leaves you with some kind of impression. It's unlikely you'll remember each of these exposures in detail, and so unlikely you'll be able to articulate what exactly they did or said that turned you on or off. They eventually just become the sum of the impressions, good and bad. | |
03-28-2020 02:43 PM
#290
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03-28-2020 02:49 PM
#291
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It's certainly up there near the top. Like I said though, I'm really not keeping a scorecard on the guy. I do have a life to live. | |
03-28-2020 02:52 PM
#292
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I don't think this is a bad heuristic to layer on the laundry list heuristic, but this still misses the habitual line steppers, pathological liars, emotional bullies, etc. | |
03-28-2020 03:26 PM
#293
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03-28-2020 03:46 PM
#294
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03-28-2020 03:52 PM
#295
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Do you know why the security and evaluation policy exists in the first place? |
03-28-2020 04:01 PM
#296
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Answer my question first. | |
03-28-2020 04:19 PM
#297
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03-28-2020 05:14 PM
#298
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I do not know enough about the facts of the matter to have a meaningful opinion. |
03-28-2020 05:17 PM
#299
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The Trump administration could be very wrong on all this, or it could be right, or somewhere in between. My goal is to understand the details in a rational way so that I can have a full opinion instead of a half-opinion. |
03-28-2020 05:31 PM
#300
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We bought a sack of potatoes so I just made chips for the first time in my life. | |
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