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CORONAVIRUS PANIC WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE

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  1. #676
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I don't even need to hit the link, I know exactly who you're on about. I think the winning Twitter comment was "I wonder what chest size his trousers are".
    There's a few other lone people clapping on other videos in that link. I won't bother showing the videos of places where you could hear the crickets, 'cause it's just a bit sad.


    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Then shaking hands isn't the problem, just standing next to them is.
    That's usually where you are when you shake someone's hand, yes.
  2. #677
    By the way, I live in a riding that voted Tory last year.

    Crickets.
  3. #678
    That's usually where you are when you shake someone's hand, yes.
    But you're arguing he's stupid for shaking hands. That act in itself is very low risk. Touching the face afterwards would be stupid. The greater risk comes from being breathed on. Imagine if he were wearing PPE as he met covid patients. You'd be outraged they found PPE for him but not doctors.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #679
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    By the way, I live in a riding that voted Tory last year.

    Crickets.
    Well I live in the countryside, so it was moos.

    My Mother says he got a decent applause in her town, though not comparable to the NHS clapathon.

    This is irrelevant. I'm not seeing many Tory voters slagging him off at this moment, so I'm firmly of the belief that the hate for him is based on politics.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #680
    I don't think it's even that people dislike him so much as that it's one thing to clap for underfunded and poorly-supported NHS workers risking their lives to help others, and quite another to clap for the PM who fucked up the response to CV and probably caught it himself from being careless.
  6. #681
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Imagine if he were wearing PPE as he met covid patients. You'd be outraged they found PPE for him but not doctors.
    Imagine if he hadn't chosen a pandemic as a good time to go to a hospital when he's the most important person in the country.
  7. #682
  8. #683
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Trump blames WHO for the CV, and (threatens to?) pull(s?) US funding from WHO.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...231400449.html
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  9. #684
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    Btw in case you haven't noticed, there's an interesting empirical study underway. The first 5 photos are from Stockholm this weekend, the rest from Helsinki:

    https://www.is.fi/kotimaa/art-200000...5.html?ref=rss

    So far Sweden has 6830 confirmed cases and 401 deaths, while Finland has 1927 and 28. Sweden has really only shut down gatherings of over 50 people and given some voluntary guidelines, but all businesses continue to operate. Will be interesting to see what happens.
    Situation 9 days later:

    Sweden confirmed cases: 11,927 (+74.6%)
    Finland confirmed cases: 3,237 (+68.0%)

    Sweden deaths: 1,203 (+200%, exactly!)
    Finland deaths: 72 (+157%)

    As bonus:
    Sweden active serious/critical cases: 954 (pre-CV ICU capacity 480)
    Finland active serious/critical cases: 75 (pre-CV ICU capacity 300)

    I'll keep me posted, since I'm sure nobody really cares that much.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  10. #685
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Trump blames WHO for the CV, and (threatens to?) pull(s?) US funding from WHO.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/...231400449.html
    The WHO really has a lot to answer for when it comes to its relationship to China and Taiwan. There needs to be a major restructuring of that organization if it wants to stay relevant.

    Nations pay the WHO for a legitimate service. Autocrats expect to get their asses pampered on top of that or they get cranky. Currently Xi Peng is very happy with the situation, but now Trump feels neglected. This situation shouldn't exist in the first place. Ideally the world should be run by functioning adults.

    The crux of the problem are that the WHO takes donations on top of their membership fees. Because it takes in donations it has become buyable. This has to stop.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  11. #686
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    Situation 9 days later:

    Sweden confirmed cases: 11,927 (+74.6%)
    Finland confirmed cases: 3,237 (+68.0%)

    Sweden deaths: 1,203 (+200%, exactly!)
    Finland deaths: 72 (+157%)

    As bonus:
    Sweden active serious/critical cases: 954 (pre-CV ICU capacity 480)
    Finland active serious/critical cases: 75 (pre-CV ICU capacity 300)

    I'll keep me posted, since I'm sure nobody really cares that much.

    They're actually (sort of) getting away with it, relative to some similar-sized countries, I suspect because pop. density is relatively low. They're doing badly compared to NOR, DEN, FIN, but doing well compared to BEL, NETH.

    btw, I think deaths/million (preferably from some comparable starting point like first day when it topped 1/m) is the clearest comparison, as # cases is dependent on testing rates.

    deaths/m

    BEL: 359
    NETH: 172
    SWE: 102
    DEN: 52
    NOR: 26
    FIN: 12

    days since topped 1 death/m:

    BEL: 28
    NETH: 31
    SWE: 27
    DEN: 27
    NOR: 28
    FIN: 19

    From this it looks like it hit Finland later than these other countries, which might partly explain the lower numbers there.

    Population density also appears to be a big factor:

    pop/sq km

    BEL: 383
    NETH: 488

    SWE: 25
    DEN: 134
    NOR: 15
    FIN: 19

    Largest city population (k) (this would presumably be the worst place for pandemic growth for each country):

    BEL: 174 (Brussels)
    NETH: 780 (Amst.)

    SWE: 974 (Stock.)
    DEN: 604 (Cop.)
    NOR: 681 (Oslo)
    FIN: 631 (Hels.)


    From all this, I'd argue the best comparison with SWE is NOR, with similar times since topping 1 death/m, not much higher pop. density or much larger main city, but ~4x death rate 102/m vs. 26/m.
  12. #687
    days from 1 death/m - death/m - no. dbls since 1 death/m - days/dbl
    BEL 28 / 383 / 8.25/ 3.4
    US 24 / 83 / 6.25 /3.8
    UK 29 / 190 / 7.5 /3.9
    SPA 35 / 397 / 8.5/ 4.1
    FRA 33 / 241 / 8/ 4.1
    NETH 31 / 183 / 7.5/ 4.1
    SWE 27 / 102 / 6.5/ 4.2
    FIN 19 / 26 / 4.5/ 4.2
    SWZ 33 / 143 / 7.25/ 4.6
    AUT 24 / 44 / 5.25/ 4.6
    CAN 21 / 25 / 4.5/ 4.7
    GER 25 / 43 / 5.25/ 4.8
    DEN 27 / 53 / 5.5/ 4.9
    ITA 43 / 358 / 8.5/ 5.1
    NOR 28 / 27 / 4.75/ 5.9



    A bit back of the envelope, but here's a comparison of how different countries have done since passing 1 death/million. Includes days since 1 death/m, current deaths/million, number of times deaths has doubled (roughly), and no. of days for each doubling - this is the key metric here.

    Clearly, for countries like ITA, they got hit at least a week earlier than everyone else, and so have been in lockdown longer, and so overall growth is slower.

    Currently, Belgium, US and UK are at the top for sucking.

    Germany, Denmark, and Norway all doing the best.

    Edit: Obv. formatting columns with tabs doesn't work, but countries are ranked from fastest to slowest doubling rates since first day of 1 death /million
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 04-15-2020 at 02:36 PM.
  13. #688
    If we look at days to double in first 15 days since reaching 1 death/million (back of envelope again), here's the rankings. Finland ftw. NOR, CAN, very good.

    SPA and BEL good God...

    days to double / deaths/m at 15d after first day of 1 death/m
    S. KOR 12.0/ 2.32
    FIN 5.0/8.9
    NOR 4.6/9.3
    CAN 4.3/13.5
    GER 3.3/24.3
    AUT 3.3/24.8
    DEN 3.2/27.5
    SWZ 3.0/30.8
    US 3.0/33.2
    FRA 3.0 /34.5
    SWE 3.0/35.0
    UK 2.9/35.3
    ITA 2.7 /49.3
    NETH 2.7/50
    BEL 2.46/88.2
    SPA 2.3/93.0

    Edit: Added S. Korea because 'wtf Western countries'
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 04-15-2020 at 02:42 PM.
  14. #689
    Quote Originally Posted by oskar View Post
    The WHO really has a lot to answer for when it comes to its relationship to China and Taiwan. There needs to be a major restructuring of that organization if it wants to stay relevant.

    Nations pay the WHO for a legitimate service. Autocrats expect to get their asses pampered on top of that or they get cranky. Currently Xi Peng is very happy with the situation, but now Trump feels neglected. This situation shouldn't exist in the first place. Ideally the world should be run by functioning adults.

    The crux of the problem are that the WHO takes donations on top of their membership fees. Because it takes in donations it has become buyable. This has to stop.
    This may all be true, but perhaps the middle of a global pandemic is not the best time to cut their funding, flawed as they may be.

    IMO Trump is just looking for any scapegoat he can find. He's on record in Jan. saying how great the WHO was doing and how much he trusted Xi. Obviously he has no fucking clue, but the timing of his decision to cut off the WHO that happens to coincide with him getting repeatedly roasted at his Reality Pandemic TV Show appearances seems suspicious to say the least...
  15. #690
    Will be interesting to see how this goes.

    https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-la...y-4/a-53127607
  16. #691
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    If we look at days to double in first 15 days since reaching 1 death/million (back of envelope again), here's the rankings. Finland ftw. NOR, CAN, very good.

    SPA and BEL good God...

    days to double / deaths/m at 15d after first day of 1 death/m
    S. KOR 12.0/ 2.32
    FIN 5.0/8.9
    NOR 4.6/9.3
    CAN 4.3/13.5
    GER 3.3/24.3
    AUT 3.3/24.8
    DEN 3.2/27.5
    SWZ 3.0/30.8
    US 3.0/33.2
    FRA 3.0 /34.5
    SWE 3.0/35.0
    UK 2.9/35.3
    ITA 2.7 /49.3
    NETH 2.7/50
    BEL 2.46/88.2
    SPA 2.3/93.0

    Edit: Added S. Korea because 'wtf Western countries'
    Those straight case/death numbers by themselves aren't very meaningful, I was just being lazy. I like the days to double you suggest.

    Sweden sure is a bit of an anomaly, they've been the most lax about restrictions of all EU countries, yet they're faring surprisingly well, at least so far. There's been quite a bit of discussion over the past couple weeks both in Sweden about the situation getting out of hand, and in Finland about too high economical burden due to the lockdown. It's gonna be interesting to see whether Sweden will emerge from this as the "winner" with a healthy economy, or if they'll end up like the UK.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  17. #692
    Yeah, well it doesn't take much difference in days to double to make a big difference in deaths/m.

    And I feel there's a big influence of pop. density too. Neth, Bel, both quite dense and both taking it on the chin pretty hard. Fin, Nor, Can, all pretty sparse.

    Swe should theoretically be up near the top performers based on density ( ~10 deaths/m after 15 days), but it's more like the UK or France (~35).

    Not really sure why it seems Spain got crushed so hard ...
  18. #693
    Just to put those numbers in further perspective. the no. 1 world killer used to be cardiovascular disease, which kills 17/million a year. Most of those countries I listed passed that number in CV deaths/million in 15 days.
  19. #694
    CoccoBill's Avatar
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    Indeed. Spain, Belgium and Italy are at 350-400 dpm, Sweden at 119, US 84, Finland 13 and San Marino 1061. :/
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  20. #695
    Ong, I heard there were lots of fruit picking jobs open in the UK if you're looking for something to do these days.
  21. #696
    Is this the new "learn to code"? Telling Brexit voters to pick fruit?

    I'll do it when you let an immigrant live in your house.

    Or maybe I'll do it anyway. I just spent the day in the garden, it'd be nice to get paid for that kind of thing.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  22. #697
    It's just a bit funny that a large number of people are suddenly unemployed but they're still flying in people from Romania to pick fruit. It's almost as if there's some national benefit to allowing the free flow of labour across borders.
  23. #698
    CoccoBill's Avatar
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    The farmers are panicking here about that, saying that most of the harvest this summer is lost because we don't have foreigners coming. Apparently no one local is willing to do it, it's damn hard labor and pays virtually nothing.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  24. #699
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    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    The farmers are panicking here about that, saying that most of the harvest this summer is lost because we don't have foreigners coming. Apparently no one local is willing to do it, it's damn hard labor and pays virtually nothing.
    My biggest hope for this is that a lot of people will realize who is actually doing essential work in a society and then rethink why these people are bottom earners. I see increasingly cranky supermarket workers thinking: go on strike, dummy. You're not being a hero, you're a tool. How much does your wage impact the price of the product? It's fucking nothing. The management is saving pennies by not paying you a decent wage.
    I don't blame brits for not wanting to pick fruit for minimum wage. Offer them a decent wage, and people will come.

    Meanwhile left parties are negotiating bailouts for billion dollar companies. Who are they bailing out? Is it the workers? Is it those who rely on that service - fuck no, it's the investors. It's so the shareholders who make up the donor class don't lose too much on their shitty undiversified investment.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  25. #700
    I'd probably rather collect unemployment insurance/pogey/dole than pick fruit too.
  26. #701
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    @oskar, there's isn't just infinite money to increase wages without impacting the prices of goods.

    The real problem is wage inequality, where a small %-age of the top earners in a company are taking home nearly all the profit, IMO.

    There's a runaway train of wealth inequality going on, IMO. There's a curve that needs flattening, too.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  27. #702
    I would not be upset if the price of fruit (or anything else) went up a bit if it meant workers were not being exploited as a consequence. But that's just me.
  28. #703
    oskar's Avatar
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    My nearest store has 3 employees working at any given time. They probably have roughly one customer by minute or two. As a conservative estimate let's say they have 400 customers on any given day, or 4000 per employee per month. If they raise prices so the average sale goes up by 10c, they could give each employee a €400 raise.


    ... and ldo they're already creating overhead, but they're not paying the workers, they're paying the managers who aren't even on site. The solution is not a novel idea: you break up big corporations and distribute ownership among the workers... just don't tell anyone what that's called.
    Last edited by oskar; 04-16-2020 at 01:44 PM.
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  29. #704
    Damn, that's 400 games of Covid Roulette per day per worker. I'm kinda surprised more of them aren't gettig sick. Or maybe they're just asymptomatic and spreading it around the community.
  30. #705
    I actually saw a woman older than me, maybe 60, working in the supermarket, and I thought "you're fucking crazy, lady" to myself.
  31. #706
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    It's just a bit funny that a large number of people are suddenly unemployed but they're still flying in people from Romania to pick fruit. It's almost as if there's some national benefit to allowing the free flow of labour across borders.
    There were, initially, a lot of local people interested in the work, but then the govt announced the furlough scheme and suddenly nobody wanted to do it. I suspect a link.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  32. #707
    Straight talk from Osterholm: We're screwed.

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/...nars/episode-4

    Cliffs: Due to lack of reagants, at best, the US (and by extension most countries) could expect to be able to test only 1% of total population/week by autumn.

    Because of sensitivity issues of tests, if only 5% of the population has been exposed, 50% of positive antibody test results will be false positives (i.e., it will say they have antibodies when they don't).

    FDA loosening of regulations for CV tests has led to half the current CV tests being used in the US being unreliable.

    US needs a federal task force on testing with experts from industry and health (i.e., not Jared and Ivanka) to monitor and provide oversight on tests and remove unreliable tests from market.

    US gov't is currently buying medical equipment, with 20% being allocated directly, 40% going into stockpile which may or may not go to particular states, and 40% being re-sold on open market to highest bidder (wtf?).
  33. #708
    I think we're going to need more dogs.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...esting-problem
  34. #709
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Can you pass the dog test?
    I mean... if it works, it's great. I get that people might think it's silly to have a dog acting as a medical test, but whatever works, IMO.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  35. #710
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Can you pass the dog test?
    I mean... if it works, it's great. I get that people might think it's silly to have a dog acting as a medical test, but whatever works, IMO.
    I've heard your dog can be upstairs while you're downstairs, and he not only knows which room you're in by smell, but what part of that room.

    And, they already use dogs to sniff cancer and whatever; don't see why CV would be any different.

    If it does work, it would probaby be up and running faster than conventional testing from the sounds of it.
  36. #711
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    I'm under the impression that training a dog to smell something is not trivial, be it bombs, drugs or whatever, takes at least 6 months. The training is mainly based on positive reinforcement, that is giving a treat when the dog sniffs something correctly. And obviously that's one smell per dog, even when it would be cool to teach them to bark once for cancer and twice for covid.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  37. #712
    Obviously the breed of dog is important, intelligent dogs being much better than thick dogs at knowing what it is humans expect of them. A collie might be able to learn to bark twice for cancer, but a dribbling boxer will probably just look at you hoping it did good.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  38. #713
    Well you could have the dog alert to either whatever cancer they're trained on first, or CV. Pass them around an old folks' home and whoever they bark at gets a CV test first, and if that's negative, then a cancer test.

    Or, just start with a new dog. It's not like they need just the genius dogs - if 40% of labradors, golden retrievers, and german shepherds can learn to walk a blind person around, I'm sure a bigger % can learn to bark to a smell.

    And yeah even if it takes six months I say go for it. If we're only testing 1% of the pop. per week by then, I'd rather put in the effort with dogs now than wait and go "Oh shit we should have pursued that dog thing. Oh well, back to lockdown."
  39. #714
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    I think we absolutely need to pursue every avenue in this. If this drags well into '21 with more or less full lockdowns as it seems now, it's gonna get ugly. Our gov estimates close to 2% lost GDP per month.

    Btw, anyone know why China reported 1290 new death in the past 24h? Please say there's another explanation than new outbreaks.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  40. #715
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  41. #716
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    Btw, anyone know why China reported 1290 new death in the past 24h? Please say there's another explanation than new outbreaks.
    Probably just changed how they counted deaths by CV. I can't see going from <10/day for the last few weeks to suddenly going to 1290 in one day.

    Edit: their previous peak was around 150/day.
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 04-17-2020 at 01:50 PM.
  42. #717
    Quote Originally Posted by oskar View Post
    More like tragic. The gov't seems to expect them to stay home without providing economic support.
  43. #718
    oskar's Avatar
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    What do you mean? Corporations got their bailout cheques... it'll trickle down any day now!
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  44. #719
    Heh, yeah.

    Plus, they should be happy to wait one extra day so they can get Trump's name printed on their survival cheque.
  45. #720
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    Btw, anyone know why China reported 1290 new death in the past 24h? Please say there's another explanation than new outbreaks.
    They say it's due to deaths outside of hospitals (died at home, care homes, prisons etc). USA accuse them of a cover up, but strangely haven't accused Spain of doing so, even though their numbers have recently been boosted by care home deaths, and even though Spain plan to stop counting those who have not been confirmed by tests to have covid.

    Naughty China. Well played everyone else.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  46. #721
    And here's a picture of Jacksonville FL beach 26 minutes after it was re-opened. Apparently there is no cure for moronavirus.

  47. #722
    Apparently there is no cure for moronavirus.
    Sure there is. Sharks.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  48. #723
    The Boris Show.

    https://archive.is/20200418182037/ht...ster-hq3b9tlgh

    “There’s no way you’re at war if your PM isn’t there,” the adviser said. “And what you learn about Boris was he didn’t chair any meetings. He liked his country breaks. He didn’t work weekends. It was like working for an old-fashioned chief executive in a local authority 20 years ago. There was a real sense that he didn’t do urgent crisis planning. It was exactly like people feared he would be.”
    The last rehearsal for a pandemic was a 2016 exercise codenamed Cygnus which predicted the health service would collapse and highlighted a long list of shortcomings — including, presciently, a lack of PPE and intensive care ventilators.
    But an equally lengthy list of recommendations to address the deficiencies was never implemented. The source said preparations for a no-deal Brexit “sucked all the blood out of pandemic planning” in the following years.
    “Almost every plan we had was not activated in February. Almost every government department has failed to properly implement their own pandemic plans,” the source said.
    The British Healthcare Trades Association (BHTA) was ready to help supply PPE in February — and throughout March — but it was only on April 1 that its offer of help was accepted.
    “The interesting thing for me is, I’ve worked with Singapore in 2003 and 2009 and basically they copied the UK pandemic preparedness plan. But the difference is they actually implemented it.”
    There were murmurings of frustration from some ministers and their aides at the time that Johnson was not taking more of a lead.
    By this time the prime minister had missed five Cobra meetings on the preparations to combat the looming pandemic, which he left to be chaired by Hancock.
    A Downing Street spokesman said: “Our response has ensured that the NHS has been given all the support it needs to ensure everyone requiring treatment has received it, as well as providing protection to businesses and reassurance to workers. The prime minister has been at the helm of the response to this, providing leadership during this hugely challenging period for the whole nation.”
  49. #724
    One more for the CV-sniffing team.

  50. #725
    The Empire Strikes Back: UK gov't responding to Times article two posts above ^^

    https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020...sight-article/

    Cliffs:

  51. #726
    By "argh", poop means the UK govt explain their position in a rational manner.

    I suspect the Times deliberately published a load of bollocks that was easy for the govt to refute.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  52. #727
    They didn't adequately refute it at all imo.

    Their position is pretty much the same as Trump's in the US.

    "We're doing a great job and anyone who says otherwise is fos."

    The facts just don't agree with them.
  53. #728
    From what I could tell, the UK's position is "we've followed scientific advise at all times". I didn't read the Times article, so I have no idea if they refuted it all. That said, they've refuted enough for me to be satisfied that I'm not going to be able to draw any conclusions.

    The govt will have plenty of questions to answer when the time is right, and they won't be answering to journalists.

    I don't think they've done "a great job". But I also don't just believe what the papers are saying, especially when they're publishing bollocks, such as complaining about us sending PPE to China, but neglecting to point out they have returned the favour. That's pretty insincere and doesn't lead me to believe the Times are acting in good faith.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  54. #729
    It just seems a bit convenient that the scientific advice they chose to follow happened to be the same advice that required the least action from them, since they clearly had other things on their mind at the time and a pandemic was certainly inconvenient for them. But by the time this got out of China, it was known to be both deadly and highly infectious, and by the time it took hold in Italy, even a layman could see it was just a matter of time before it got to everywhere.

    Their response at that time was slower than nearly all of Europe's.

    The act of kindness in sending PPE to China is a bit at odds with a country preparing for an inevitable health crisis. Even if China has "given" more of that back (and I think they are the world's main supplier, so not sure it's really a 'gift' so much as a sale) we are still basically operating on a shoestring now. A shipment was meant to come in from Turkey today but didn't, meaning tomorrow staff may be asked to start re-using gowns.

    Between reaching 1 death/million pop and d+15 (15 days later), the UK was fifth worst in the world in rate of increases of death behind SPA, BEL, NETH, and ITA. Between d+15 and d+30, we are second worst - and the only country we are behind (FRA) is being much more liberal in how they count CV deaths than we are. So basically between us and FRA, it's a tossup as to which is the least prepared country in the world right now. At least Macron is taking some responsibility for his gov't, whereas ours is trying to say we did a great job. Did we?

    You can say there'll be an inquiry in 18 months or whatever, and they don't have to answer to journalists, but obviously they felt they did. And the journalists are right to question them.
  55. #730
    It just seems a bit convenient that the scientific advice they chose to follow happened to be the same advice that required the least action from them, since they clearly had other things on their mind at the time and a pandemic was certainly inconvenient for them.
    I mean, this is just pure speculation.

    But by the time this got out of China, it was known to be both deadly and highly infectious, and by the time it took hold in Italy, even a layman could see it was just a matter of time before it got to everywhere.
    When exactly did it "take hold" in Italy? Because on 21st Feb, they had 51 cases. By the time this was declared a pandemic, on 11th March, we were in the process of a lockdown. Granted, the govt could have done what India did and given everyone four hours notice to get the fuck home, but we chose to do it in stages. Whether that was the right choice or not is not something I can say either way, but I can understand why we took that path.

    The act of kindness in sending PPE to China is a bit at odds with a country preparing for an inevitable health crisis.
    I would argue that sending PPE to a nation that has the resources to send us PPE in return is good preparation for a pandemic.

    And sure we probably bought their PPE. They probably bought ours, too.

    A shipment was meant to come in from Turkey today but didn't, meaning tomorrow staff may be asked to start re-using gowns.
    Whose fault is this? Ours? Should we threaten Turkey with our nukes? For some reason, lots of nations don't want to send PPE to other countries. The reason for this delay has not been made public, but my money is on Turkey saying "fuck off, we're keeping it".

    You can say there'll be an inquiry in 18 months or whatever, and they don't have to answer to journalists, but obviously they felt they did. And the journalists are right to question them.
    Sure the journalists are right to question the government, but not insincerely. And the point of an inquiry is that politicians cannot lie, like they can when talking to the media.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  56. #731
    If you 're going to argue at least try to get the basic facts right. We went into lockdown March 23rd, not the 11th. Lombardy was locked down 21 Feb., so apparently the Italians at least thought it had taken hold then.

    Like I said, we were behind every other country in Europe that locked down. How anyone can look at that and think 'yeah, sounds like they had a good plan' is beyond me.
  57. #732
    We didn't suddenly go into lockdown on the 21st, we progressively went into lockdown over a period of time, until the 21st, by which point we were in full lockdown. I came back from my Mom's after a week there on the 7th, and did a large shop in anticipation of a lockdown. I had to cover extra shifts at Oxfam as the oldies were being advised to stay at home.

    We might well have been behind most of Europe. Whose fault is that? The govt? Or those advising them? I'm kind of getting bored of saying this, but we won't know for sure until there's an inquiry. Until then, it's speculation, based on gutter press, social media, and political sniping.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  58. #733
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Whose fault is that? The govt? Or those advising them?
    The gov't had access to a number of conflicting opinions, just like every other government. They chose which one to listen to, so yeah it's on them.


    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I'm kind of getting bored of saying this, but we won't know for sure until there's an inquiry. Until then, it's speculation, based on gutter press, social media, and political sniping.
    Facts exist independent of formal inquiries; not sure if you realize that. Of course, if you don't like the facts you can always choose to ignore them or blame them on social media or whatever, and wait for an inquiry. That's your choice.

  59. #734
    The gov't had access to a number of conflicting opinions, just like every other government. They chose which one to listen to, so yeah it's on them.
    What you're saying here is that the government should have the expertise to know which expert they should listen to, which would render the whole point of expert advice redundant. If they know which expert to believe, why bother asking? You're free to draw your own conclusions, but I'm free to think you're being very unfair on this point.

    Facts exist independent of formal inquiries
    Of course. Amusing then how you then post a chart which implies things like lockdown happened instantly on a particular day.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  60. #735
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    What you're saying here is that the government should have the expertise to know which expert they should listen to
    It's one thing to accept the advice from the chicken little type experts and thus be over-cautious in your response, it's another to accept the advice from the nothing to see here experts and do next to nothing. Clearly, no-one in Europe was being over-cautious, but apart from us, no-one else was being as complacent.



    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Of course. Amusing then how you then post a chart which implies things like lockdown happened instantly on a particular day.
    The chart shows different measues being taken at different times for different countries. Not sure you're interpreting it correctly.

    What's amusing to me is how badly you seem to want to defend the gov't here, when the facts clearly show otherwise. Why are you suddenly such a defender of gov't?
  61. #736
    Here's another question for you: Are you ok with the gov't using the Dept. of Health website to put their own spin on the Times article?

    Also: Do you really consider Reuters (article I posted earlier) and the Times to be 'gutter press'?
  62. #737
    It's one thing to accept the advice from the chicken little type experts and thus be over-cautious in your response, it's another to accept the advice from the nothing to see here experts and do next to nothing. Clearly, no-one in Europe was being over-cautious, but apart from us, no-one else was being as complacent.
    Most of the world have been complacent. China, Italy, Spain, France and USA have certainly been very complacent. We have too. But complacency is not a crime. We, the people, were complacent, too. And naive. It's a bit rich to moan about the govt's failings when the people have shown similar failings.

    The chart shows different measues being taken at different times for different countries. Not sure you're interpreting it correctly.
    My point is that lockdown didn't happen overnight. You're showing a very basic chart which implies it did, and claiming it is fact. It is not fact, it's a very basic summary for those who just want to look at a single picture.

    What's amusing to me is how badly you seem to want to defend the gov't here, when the facts clearly show otherwise. Why are you suddenly such a defender of gov't?
    What facts? Charts like the one you posted? I don't think this is a very good time for political shit slinging. I also don't believe that Labour would have dealt with this any better, in fact I'm glad Boris is in charge and not Corbyn. I'm reluctant to draw conclusions based on noise. It does feel a bit strange defending the govt, I am not a Tory supporter and don't trust Boris. But there is definitely a huge amount of politics at play here, but it's a terrible time to be putting pressure on govt. Uninformed people trying to influence govt policy at such times is dangerous.

    Here's another question for you: Are you ok with the gov't using the Dept. of Health website to put their own spin on the Times article?
    I couldn't give a fuck. What matters is if it's honest, not where on the internet it was published.

    Also: Do you really consider Reuters (article I posted earlier) and the Times to be 'gutter press'?
    The Times, yes. Reuters I have a bit more respect for, but that doesn't mean they are immune to politics.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  63. #738
    On another note, Tony Blair is trending on Twitter because the left want him back. Fuck me. It really does come to something when people would rather have a war criminal who sold off our gold and fucked the economy in charge than mop head Boris. I mean, at least Boris hasn't invaded any countries yet based on a pack of lies.

    Also, Tony Blair is a Thatcherite. He's a Tory in red clothing. "New Labour" wasn't just a slogan, it was almost a rare moment of honesty. Better would have been "Not Labour".
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  64. #739
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Some of the world have been complacent, some have not and its everywhere a matter of degree. China locked down an entire province in a way no other country has emuated. S. Korea took aggressive measures to isolation/testing as did many other SE Asian countries. Greece went on lockdown before having a single death.
    fyp


    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    My point is that lockdown didn't happen overnight. You're showing a very basic chart which implies it did, and claiming it is fact. It is not fact, it's a very basic summary for those who just want to look at a single picture.
    If you're really that bad at reading a chart, then you probably should either learn how to read a chart, or just not comment on them.



    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I don't think this is a very good time for political shit slinging. I also don't believe that Labour would have dealt with this any better
    Just contradicted yourself in successive sentences. Good job.

    This is the CV-19 equivalent of 'what about Hillary's emails?'

    The question here isn't what's happening in some hypothestical parallel universe, it's about the reality of what's happening in the universe we're currently residing in.



    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    But there is definitely a huge amount of politics at play here, but it's a terrible time to be putting pressure on govt. Uninformed people trying to influence govt policy at such times is dangerous.
    Forget about what other people are doing. None of us on FTR are going to influence gov't policy. So don't conflate what I'm saying here with what's being said publicly.


    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    The Times, yes.
    Is there any source of UK media you trust? Also, do you find it relevant that this critical article came from a conservative paper like the Times - seems they'd be the last one to do a hit piece on the Tories.
  65. #740
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    What matters is if it's honest, not where on the internet it was published.
    Strange then that you only read the rebuttal and not the original article. You do realise you're deliberately biasing your own view based on gov't spin then, right?
  66. #741
    China were complacent because they didn't tell the WHO immediately how serious this was. Just because they locked down Wuhan, doesn't mean they dealt with this well.

    If you're really that bad at reading a chart, then you probably should either learn how to read a chart, or just not comment on them.
    Charts like this are for people who like to buy tabloids and look at the pictures and headlines without reading the article. Did we go into lockdown overnight? Simple y/n question.

    Just contradicted yourself in successive sentences. Good job.
    I smirked when I read back my post.

    The question here isn't what's happening in some hypothestical parallel universe, it's about the reality of what's happening in the universe we're currently residing in.
    Sure, and in this universe, everyone thinks they know best. Maybe that's why the govt got conflicting advise from their experts... too many fucking "experts".

    Forget about what other people are doing. None of us on FTR are going to influence gov't policy. So don't conflate what I'm saying here with what's being said publicly.
    Fine, I'll play the same card with regards to me slinging shit at Labour. It's not public because nobody will read it.

    Is there any source of UK media you trust?
    In a word, no.

    Also, do you find it relevant that this critical article came from a conservative paper like the Times - seems they'd be the last one to do a hit piece on the Tories.
    Why do you suppose I suspect this Times article was deliberately flawed to make it easy for the govt to refute? I find it much easier to believe it was staged than to believe it was actual sincere journalism.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  67. #742
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Strange then that you only read the rebuttal and not the original article. You do realise you're deliberately biasing your own view based on gov't spin then, right?
    Incorrect. I already stated that I have faith in an inquiry, not media articles, because politicians can lie to the press and face no litigation. I didn't read the Times article because I am lazy. I breezed through the refutation to see what the tone was. From what I could tell, it was a reasonable refutation, but I'll wait for the inquiry before I draw any conclusions. So my view is not biased, it's neutral. The govt could indeed be fucking this up royally, and criminally. It'll just take more than the internet for me to believe that.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  68. #743
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Charts like this are for people who like to buy tabloids and look at the pictures and headlines without reading the article.
    No, they're for summarizing data in a way that even dummies can understand.


    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Did we go into lockdown overnight? Simple y/n question.
    Did you look at the chart yet?
  69. #744
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post

    Maybe that's why the govt got conflicting advise from their experts... too many fucking "experts".
    The reason there was conflicting expert opinion is because the question is difficult, not because too many experts were working on it.

    If epidemiological predictions were easy, you wouldn't need experts, you could do them on a calculator.
  70. #745
    The reason there was conflicting expert opinion is because the question is difficult, not because too many experts were working on it.
    I wasn't being all that serious with that comment, I was mocking the concept that everyone is an expert, but I'm glad to see you realise these issues are difficult. The question of whether we could have handled this better is not much of a question... of course we could have done. The question of whether we *should* have dealt with this better is a totally different question. It depends on so many factors, the vast majority of which we are uninformed about. This is why I don't like to draw conclusions.

    Did you look at the chart yet?
    Yes. I notice we're a day or two behind Germany. What conclusions can you draw from that? And you might note that Belgium acted well before us in all cases, so you might be forgiven for looking at this chart and assuming they don't have as many deaths per capita (theirs is twice ours).

    What story does that chart tell you poop? It doesn't tell me anything.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  71. #746
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I wasn't being all that serious with that comment, I was mocking the concept that everyone is an expert, but I'm glad to see you realise these issues are difficult. The question of whether we could have handled this better is not much of a question... of course we could have done. The question of whether we *should* have dealt with this better is a totally different question. It depends on so many factors, the vast majority of which we are uninformed about. This is why I don't like to draw conclusions.



    Yes. I notice we're a day or two behind Germany. What conclusions can you draw from that? And you might note that Belgium acted well before us in all cases, so you might be forgiven for looking at this chart and assuming they don't have as many deaths per capita (theirs is twice ours).

    What story does that chart tell you poop? It doesn't tell me anything.
    Days matter a lot when death rates are doubling every 2-5 days. So you can't just say 'we were a day behind on this or that measure relative to another country, so what?'

    What you can say is that we were generally on the right (late) side of the charts on all measures. That much is clear.

    What you can also note is the correspondence between us being on the right of the charts and the fact we're currently second-worst in the World on days to double the death rate between d15 and d30. The only worse country is FRA, which it happens is counting CV deaths much more liberally than us (e.g., including deaths in seniors' homes whereas we only include deaths in hospitals).

    So if you're looking for reasons why we're doing so poorly, the charts seem to provide at least part of the answer: a late response.

    Another factor would likely be testing, where we're also doing similarly pooorly to FRA, and well behind almost every other country (about a third of tests per capita as GER for example). We're even behind America on testing per capita. For a country where so many people are dying, you'd think having more tests would be a priority.

    Another part would be ICU capacity, PPE and ventilator supply. We're also poor on those.

    All of the above are things we had control over.

    The only thing we can't control is population density.
  72. #747
    As best I can tell, our ICU capacity is ok. I've seen no reports yet that we're overwhelmed. And our deaths are probably 7000 short due to the fact we're yet to count care homes.

    Look, the key issue at stake is why the government acted in the way they did. Are they acting in good faith? That really is all that matters to me. This is an unprecedented situation, it's easy to make mistakes when it's the first time you're dealing with a situation. Why were these mistakes made? What advice were the government getting? If they're getting conflicting advice, on what basis did they choose one over the other? These are the questions that matter, and we're not getting reliable answers to those until we have an inquiry. In the meantime, this is the absolute worst time possible to be giving the government a hard time. I'm not suggesting we should blindly put our faith in them, but we have to let them get on with the job. With a political shitshow distracting them, more mistakes become even more likely.

    This is what I mean by now not being the time. Can you say you'd have acted differently? You can't answer that question unless you know all of the factors that have played a role in policy making.

    If the government have acted in good faith, then I can forgive the mistakes they've made.

    Jesus fucking wept it's windy outside.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  73. #748
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    If the government have acted in good faith, then I can forgive the mistakes they've made.
    Yeah who cares about competence, 10 points for trying! Not commenting on UK here, but in general I'd like to set a higher bar.

    Curious to know if you'd feel the same if it were a labor gov.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  74. #749
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    Yeah who cares about competence, 10 points for trying! Not commenting on UK here, but in general I'd like to set a higher bar.

    Curious to know if you'd feel the same if it were a labor gov.
    +1

    I dont really care about whether their intentions were good; that's a standard I apply to a six-year-old. This is the gov't we're talking about here.
  75. #750
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    Yeah who cares about competence, 10 points for trying! Not commenting on UK here, but in general I'd like to set a higher bar.

    Curious to know if you'd feel the same if it were a labor gov.
    Yes, but with a Labour govt I'd be a lot more worried about the economy.

    Although I have to admit, I'd definitely be mocking Diane Abbot every time she said some numbers. But only because it's funny.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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