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CORONAVIRUS PANIC WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE

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  1. #451
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    This occurred to me recently, so I googled how many people die on UK roads, and the average is 5 per day. We're up to 500+ a day thanks to CV.
    Yup. The full hospitals with NHS staff working around the clock are another clue the net outcome is negative.
  2. #452
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Yep. And now Fauci requires a security detail because Trump supporters are sending him death threats for disagreeing with the President.

    Dafuq is wrong with people?
    I did watch a recent Fox news segment yesterday just because I was feeling masochistic, and the host Ingraham was sarcastically slamming Fauci and the Dems for not accepting the 'evidence' that those lupus/malaria drugs work on CV. The evidence was ONE study, which I understand has come under a lot of criticism for being badly designed and analysed. But of course she presented it like it was conclusive proof.

    No wonder the MAGA-tards think he's part of the Deep State plan to ruin Trump's chance of getting re-elected when they watch garbage opinion pieces like that.
  3. #453
    CoccoBill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Yup. The full hospitals with NHS staff working around the clock are another clue the net outcome is negative.
    I think what he meant to say was the death toll from cv the past couple weeks has not yet surpassed to annual deaths from traffic accidents.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  4. #454
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    I think what he meant to say was the death toll from cv the past couple weeks has not yet surpassed to annual deaths from traffic accidents.
    If he did, then he'd be wrong.

    Annual deaths from traffic accidents (UK) ~1700

    COVID deaths 2020 (UK) > 3500
  5. #455
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Fauci is a respectable person. He's aware of the economic implications of over-reacting, of having a shut-down that extends beyond the necessary point to limit the infection. He's aware that there's a balance, and that we're not waiting for CV death rates to go to 0 before we remove the restrictions.

    He's not a single-minded person who's only aware of the health issues. He's aware of the greater picture, and how much is at risk for over-reacting and for under-reacting.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  6. #456
    Yeah Fauci seems pretty level-headed. It's a shame the MAGA-tards are so paranoid that an expert can't rightly contradict their dear leader without them ascribing it to some deep level conspiracy.
  7. #457
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    It's just so fitting that the only voice of reason in the administration is getting death threats. How dare he speak in full comprehensible sentences and sound like an adult.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  8. #458
  9. #459
    I'm embedded into what you could call 3 different types of base MAGA types. 2 of them don't have a problem with Fauci. You can imagine my surprise when I start hearing how Fauci is supposedly bad. My main source of that info is from non-MAGAs, and small secondary source is one of the sub-MAGA types.
  10. #460
    How amazing is it to see that experts have been wrong every step of the way on the virus?
  11. #461
    If China doesn't close their wet markets, does it mean they don't care what damage they do to the world or that they're altering viruses in laboratories?
    Last edited by wufwugy; 04-04-2020 at 12:30 AM.
  12. #462
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    How amazing is it to see that experts have been wrong every step of the way on the virus?
    Which experts?
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  13. #463
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    If China doesn't close their wet markets, does it mean they don't care what damage they do to the world or that they're altering viruses in laboratories?
    Can it be so binary?

    The debate in the US seems to be expected death rate vs long-term economic damage.
    I've not heard the US's impact on ROW even mentioned once.
    I've not heard about how ROW economic responses to this will impact the US, either.

    Is China making decisions based on non-China's future?
    I doubt it, but I'm trying to be more open today.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  14. #464
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    Which experts?
    Here's one specific example of Fauci saying it's not a major threat and US citizens shouldnt be worried about. During the same time period others (many non-experts, like me) were saying flights with China needed to be shut down.

    https://twitter.com/brithume/status/1246156119938080776

    The last few days a good deal of examples from the WHO have surfaced that are pretty bad. I'm not sure I could find those again since they get buried so fast these days. You've probably seen some of those though since a lot of people have been talking about them.


    This raises the question, what are they experts in? I like Fauci. A lot. And I don't fault people for being wrong (because we're all wrong about so many things all the time). It may be that we should look at who we are calling the relevant experts. For example, Fauci is a world class expert in his domain in biology/disease, but he is not a world class expert in mathematics. Mathematicians might have had a different view during the early stage of the virus since they have a stronger understanding of the exponential function.

    Somebody with expertise in economics and math might have said if we don't front-load the cost, they're liable to get wildly out of control down the road.
  15. #465
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Is China making decisions based on non-China's future?
    When I'm trying to be as clear-headed about it as I can, here's my view:

    The worst scenario for the Chinese Communist Party involves the backlash they would get from their own people if they shut down wet markets.

    To me, that means it's the rest of the world's job to make the CCP suffer more if it doesn't shut down the wet markets.
  16. #466
    As bad as this event is, it might be the best event of our lives because of the constructive revolution it may catalyze.
  17. #467
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    This occurred to me recently, so I googled how many people die on UK roads, and the average is 5 per day. We're up to 500+ a day thanks to CV.
    Is that 100x more people are dying on roads now?
  18. #468
    I'd love to see data on death rates from pneumonia now. And from other closely relevant conditions. Might be extremely important data because it could show if we're rightly (or wrongly) attributing deaths to COVID-19
  19. #469
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Mathematicians might have had a different view during the early stage of the virus since they have a stronger understanding of the exponential function.
    There's not too much to understand about exponential growth. If you understand 2 x 2 = 4 x 2 = 8 x 2 =16 and so on, you've pretty much grasped it.

    The problem with forecasting something subject to exponential growth like a disease is twofold: 1) you get vast amounts of error if you start from a different number from what is true; and 2) you also get vast amounts of error if the rate of exponenetial growth is mis-specified (e.g., every 2 days is much faster than every 5 days).

    The challenge as I see it that epidemiologists face is not having enough information to make accurate forecasts. Yet they feel obliged to make forecasts anyways, when really they will privately say 'there's not enough data to know'. But you can't go on TV and just throw up your hands, can you? So you have to make a guess.

    Take a situation where the true case number (T) of a disease in a population on day 1 (d1) is 100, but only 2 people have tested positive (P) so far. Both positive tests were done on people in hospital showing severe symptoms, so P lags behind T by some number of days (people take a certain amount of days from catching the disease to getting really sick).

    Ten days later (d11), T = 1600, P = 16

    T has doubled in numbers four times (100 x 2^4), but P has only doubled three times (2 x 2^3). This could happen if, say, testing was imprecise (a lot of false negatives) or lagged far behind infections (say by two weeks), or if not everyone who got really sick was being tested, or for any number of other reasons.

    Now ask someone to calculate P at d30. They're going to almost certainly miss by a large margin. Based on P (they don't know T) and the trend observed from d1 to d10, they expect it to double nine times in 30 days to 2^9 = 512. If T goes on as it was, it will be 100^12 = 204,800. If it took 14 days to develop severe symptoms enough to get tested, and tests were generally accurate, P could instead be closer to 5,000 or 10,000. Meaning they're out by a factor of 10.

    Another problem is doubling rates vary with behaviour. If people are socially isolating, doubling times can be much higher than if people are acting like there's no problem at all (which may be understandable if there's only two reported cases), not knowing that in a month there's going to be a shitload of cases, and in two months they are going to be feeling nostalgic about one month.

    This is one reason why testing is so important. If you have an accurate idea of how people have the disease and how it has been progressing, you can feed the right data into your model and get an accurate idea of how many will have it in 10, 20, 30 days, etc., and how many ventilators/PPE, etc. you will need. Otherwise you are just guessing.
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 04-05-2020 at 06:00 AM.
  20. #470
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    To me, that means it's the rest of the world's job to make the CCP suffer more if it doesn't shut down the wet markets.
    Wouldn't this mean we'd have to shut down all our chicken and pig operations? And ask the Saudis to shoot all the camels?
  21. #471
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    I'd love to see data on death rates from pneumonia now. And from other closely relevant conditions. Might be extremely important data because it could show if we're rightly (or wrongly) attributing deaths to COVID-19
    AFAIK they only attribute deaths to CV if the person has tested positive for it. Pneumonia is a complicating factor that arises because their immune system is weak. So in a way, the pneumonia is what kills them. The problem is they wouldn't have got the pneumonia in the first place if not for having CV.

    It seems more likely to me they missed cases of CV early on due to insufficient testing than that they're falsely blaming deaths on it now.
  22. #472
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Wouldn't this mean we'd have to shut down all our chicken and pig operations? And ask the Saudis to shoot all the camels?
    Why's that?
  23. #473
    Swine flu, avian flu, MERS.
  24. #474
    Oh, and cows too (J-K disease).
  25. #475
    Fortunately I found this. Appears to me to not suggest reason to believe there is a misallocation of pneumonia/influenza deaths.

    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
  26. #476
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Fortunately I found this. Appears to me to not suggest reason to believe there is a misallocation of pneumonia/influenza deaths.

    https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
    What reason did you have to think there was?
  27. #477
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    What reason did you have to think there was?
    I try to think like a scientist, to find what we could be doing wrong in order to make sure what we're doing might be right.
  28. #478
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Is that 100x more people are dying on roads now?
    No, I mean CV is killing 500+ people a day. There will certainly be fewer car accidents right now, we might be down to one or two dying on the roads each day. There's probably fewer people getting stabbed up, too, or for you Yanks, no school shootings. This must have also thwarted at least some terrorist activity. Imagine if you'd spent ten years plotting to bomb Glastonbury. How pissed off would you be right now?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  29. #479
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Imagine if you'd spent ten years plotting to bomb Glastonbury. How pissed off would you be right now?
    I expect this to be a British sketch comedy one day.
  30. #480
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    I expect this to be a British sketch comedy one day.
    I might write a book called "the Bog Roll Riots". Lots of short stories related to Coronavirus.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  31. #481
    But then there's this. If accurate, it suggests we REALLY need to figure out if we're not overestimating the impact of COVID-19.

  32. #482
    Super important to figure out if we're counting the impact of COVID-19 correctly

    But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.

    “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

    “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ts-died-italy/
  33. #483
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    But then there's this. If accurate, it suggests we REALLY need to figure out if we're not overestimating the impact of COVID-19.


    Fewer people are going out and catching pneumonia from community spread. That would be one explanation.
  34. #484
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Super important to figure out if we're counting the impact of COVID-19 correctly



    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...ts-died-italy/

    I saw this and they have a point. If a person catches CV the day before they were about to die of something else, that is not a "death from CV".

    OTOH, there are places where deaths from CV are probably being under-reported. Germany's death rate of ~1.5% is suspiciously low, even with the large number of tests they've given.
  35. #485
    Here's one way to look at impact:

    https://twitter.com/usama_bilal/stat...31392252960772
  36. #486
    Quote Originally Posted by wuf
    Fewer people are going out and catching pneumonia from community spread. That would be one explanation.
    Pneumonia is an infection that's caused by a lot of things. It's not really a disease you catch from person to person, it's more a sign that your body is struggling to fight off an infection. You can catch contagious viruses that then go on to cause pneumonia (such as CV), but you don't catch pneumonia itself.

    Most people who die from CV will die as a result of either pneumonia or ARDS (respiratory failure). If figures for these causes of death are unusually low during this time, then chances are that they are being counted towards CV totals. There should be more people dying of non-CV related pneumonia and ARDS, due to the demands on ICU capacity.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  37. #487
    Gov't here has closed several parks, and has just threatened to ban all outdoor exercise if twats don't stop sunbathing in them.

    If they do that I will fucking snap.
  38. #488
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Pneumonia is an infection that's caused by a lot of things. It's not really a disease you catch from person to person, it's more a sign that your body is struggling to fight off an infection. You can catch contagious viruses that then go on to cause pneumonia (such as CV), but you don't catch pneumonia itself.
    All respiratory bacteria/viruses are transmissible from person-to-person, including pneumonia.

    https://www.healthline.com/health/is...nia-contagious

    Pneumonia is a lung infection caused by bacteria, viruses, or fungi. Some of these germs do spread from person to person, so you may be contagious if you have certain types of pneumonia.

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Most people who die from CV will die as a result of either pneumonia or ARDS (respiratory failure). If figures for these causes of death are unusually low during this time, then chances are that they are being counted towards CV totals. There should be more people dying of non-CV related pneumonia and ARDS, due to the demands on ICU capacity.
    My understanding is that you don't count towards a "CV-death" unless you test positive for CV.

    So no, someone who dies of pneumonia but doesn't have CV doesnt get mistaken for a CV-related death.
  39. #489
    In the end though, does it matter if we're off by a few hundred?

    It's obviously having a serious effect. People don't just suddenly drop dead in the tens of thousands from pneumonia alone.


    Deaths from all causes by week, Castille/Leon, Spain.




    The blue line is the estimated number of deaths one would expect in a typical Dec-April period, and the shaded blue region is some kind of statistical confidence interval (prolly 95%) for the range of expected deaths. The black line is this year's number of deaths.

    NB: The little rise in the blue line over winter is the typical 'flu season bump. The big rise in the black line in March is CV.
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 04-05-2020 at 08:10 AM.
  40. #490
    All respiratory bacteria/viruses are transmissible from person-to-person, including pneumonia.
    Fair enough, I stand corrected. I always thought it was basically a symptom, an effect not a cause.

    My understanding is that you don't count towards a "CV-death" unless you test positive for CV.
    One would hope so, but we don't know how many people are actually being tested, and how accurate such tests are. It's hard to find another explanation for a sudden drop in pneumonia deaths. I guess it could just be a statistical anomaly, but it might be misdiagnosis based on symptoms.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  41. #491
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    It's hard to find another explanation for a sudden drop in pneumonia deaths.
    I gave you one: fewer people going out and about coughing bacteria around.

    Another could be that some of the people who were destined to catch pneumonia and die, instead caught CV and died. Hooray?
  42. #492
    https://twitter.com/Psythor/status/1246761523269242886

    Jesus' blood: The new cure for CV.
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 04-05-2020 at 08:15 AM.
  43. #493
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Fair enough, I stand corrected. I always thought it was basically a symptom, an effect not a cause.
    Well you're not wrong. The pneumonia (=infection of the lungs) doesn't spread, the things causing pneumonia do.

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    One would hope so, but we don't know how many people are actually being tested, and how accurate such tests are. It's hard to find another explanation for a sudden drop in pneumonia deaths. I guess it could just be a statistical anomaly, but it might be misdiagnosis based on symptoms.
    There's data from most countries about their testing numbers:

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    The tests that have been done so far (DNA-based PCR tests or similar) are very accurate if done properly, but only after 4-5 days after being infected. So yeah, there's a pretty big chance of false negatives, false positives shouldn't be an issue. The new tests that are being implemented now are much quicker (results in hours vs 2-3 days), but they only measure antibodies to detect whether the person has already had CV.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  44. #494
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    I gave you one: fewer people going out and about coughing bacteria around.

    Another could be that some of the people who were destined to catch pneumonia and die, instead caught CV and died. Hooray?
    Or they're lying about CV and it's caused by 5G.

    People actually think this, there were two attacks on 5G towers in England recently.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  45. #495
    Quote Originally Posted by cocco
    The tests that have been done so far (DNA-based PCR tests or similar) are very accurate if done properly, but only after 4-5 days after being infected. So yeah, there's a pretty big chance of false negatives, false positives shouldn't be an issue. The new tests that are being implemented now are much quicker (results in hours vs 2-3 days), but they only measure antibodies to detect whether the person has already had CV.
    I guess my concern is that doctors do not have the time to test everyone, that some people are being diagnosed based on symptoms rather than a test. If that is happening, then people with non-CV related pneumonia could be misdiagnosed.

    But to be fair, poop is probably right. If pneumonia is mostly transmitted through bacteria from coughs, then we should both expect and be delighted to see a decrease during social distancing.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  46. #496
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    But to be fair, poop is probably right. If pneumonia is mostly transmitted through bacteria from coughs, then we should both expect and be delighted to see a decrease during social distancing.
    I wouldn't go so far as to say 'mostly'. Some of it may be infection from other people, and some is just the immune system being weakened by whatever else made them sick to begin with.

    I've never had pneumonia, for example, but I'm sure there's some bacteria scratching by making a marginal living in my lungs just hoping CV will come and give them a chance to party.
  47. #497
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    Well you're not wrong. The pneumonia (=infection of the lungs) doesn't spread, the things causing pneumonia do.
    Yeah, but that's kind of like saying measles doesn't spread, the measles virus does.
  48. #498
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Pneumonia is interesting in that regard, though, as it is a symptom caused by multiple, very different vectors.
    A virus and a bacteria are very different things.
    Most illnesses I think of are caused by one specific thing, not a range of very different things.

    Am I just ignorant? Is this a common thing that I'm just not aware of?
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  49. #499
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Pneumonia is interesting in that regard, though, as it is a symptom caused by multiple, very different vectors.
    A virus and a bacteria are very different things.
    Most illnesses I think of are caused by one specific thing, not a range of very different things.

    Am I just ignorant? Is this a common thing that I'm just not aware of?

    Not sure. Seems like just semantics to me whether you claim you're spreading the illness or the thing(s) that causes the illness.

    If you have one infection, you're generally more susceptible to others. I don't think there's any difference between bacteria and viruses in that regard. Could be wrong though.
  50. #500
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Fewer people are going out and catching pneumonia from community spread. That would be one explanation.
    Ah yeah that's a good thought.
  51. #501
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Gov't here has closed several parks, and has just threatened to ban all outdoor exercise if twats don't stop sunbathing in them.

    If they do that I will fucking snap.
    Is the open outdoors even known to be a problem? I thought it's possible you're far safer outdoors if the virus is around than indoors.
  52. #502
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post




    My understanding is that you don't count towards a "CV-death" unless you test positive for CV.

    So no, someone who dies of pneumonia but doesn't have CV doesnt get mistaken for a CV-related death.
    Cases in which they could might be if they also had the flu but the death gets marked as CV (because that's prominent on minds).
  53. #503
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Deaths from all causes by week, Castille/Leon, Spain.
    Thanks for the graph. It's the kind of thing I'm looking for. It's reassuring that we're not miscounting by much.
  54. #504
    I wonder what it would take -- after this settles down -- for society to have an adult discussion about lifestyle (instead of like what happened with PoundMeToo: the emotion-bellowing cancel-crisis).
  55. #505
    Example: I'd like to see us decide that it's virtuous to encourage people to live healthier lifestyles. NOT villainize those who live unhealthy lifestyles.
  56. #506
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Or they're lying about CV and it's caused by 5G.

    People actually think this, there were two attacks on 5G towers in England recently.
    I been hearing bout this multiples times now. Where is it coming from?
  57. #507
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Is the open outdoors even known to be a problem? I thought it's possible you're far safer outdoors if the virus is around than indoors.
    Ya, I think they're being a bit paranoid, but maybe not totally. Seems a lot more dangerous when you're in a confined space with others.

    For some random person outside to walk by you within 2m and you to catch it they pretty much have to breathe right in your face while you're breathing in, and there be no breeze.

    OTOH, if you walk by 100 of them it's 100x more likely for that to happen than if you walk by 0 of them I guess. Still, 100x a very very very small number is still a very very small number.
  58. #508
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    PoundMeToo
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  59. #509
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Cases in which they could might be if they also had the flu but the death gets marked as CV (because that's prominent on minds).
    Could happen. But, I think the WHO is running a tighter ship than that. I don't think you're supposed to count it as CV without a +ive test.

    More likely seems that a lot of early CV deaths were ascribed to flu/pneum. because no-one was thinking CV then.
  60. #510
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    LOL

    Excellent use.
  61. #511
    Picture perfect editorial journalism from Jake Tapper

    https://twitter.com/CNNSotu/status/1246811253726679043
  62. #512
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    I been hearing bout this multiples times now. Where is it coming from?
    China owns 5G
  63. #513
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    China owns 5G
    Well shit. I used to like 5g.
  64. #514
    The 5G bollocks is mostly coming from flat earthers. Pointing out that Iran has CV but not 5G is like showing them a picture of the curve. It's a lie, fish eye lens, you're a NASA fanboy etc.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  65. #515
    If someone wants to argue this pandemic is a hoax, I'll listen without assuming they're a retard. It could be a hoax. But for it to be a hoax, it implies total global control for the "elite" or whatever we're going to call them. And this is no 9/11, there's no "jet fuel doesn't melt steel beams" or "the towers fell too fast". If this is a hoax, it's a fucking brilliant hoax.

    The idea that radio waves of a certain frequency can activate an idle virus in a person though, this is just pure scientific illiteracy. It's right up there with flat earth. Even chemtrails isn't this batshit, at least it's possible to spray chemicals into the air.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  66. #516
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    It would require the worldwide conspiracy of people who have literally sworn to "do no harm" as part of taking their jobs.

    I'm not saying it's 0%, but if we're that deep in the lizard-people's control, then it hardly matters to hide it at this point.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  67. #517
    If Ong says it's a tinfoil hat theory, that's enough for me.
  68. #518
    That said, has anyone seen Fauci's DNA profile?
  69. #519
    @mojo

    I agree the probability is small, but I like to think tinfoil. It entertains me. But if we're going down this road, such a conspiracy doesn't necessarily need the willful compliance of regular scientists and doctors. I use the term "hoax" pretty loosely, so if, for example, this is a lab virus deliberately released, and we're being told it's a natural event, then this fits into my loose definition of "hoax".

    Could you prove this isn't a lab virus? Who could?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  70. #520
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Pneumonia is an infection that's caused by a lot of things. It's not really a disease you catch from person to person, it's more a sign that your body is struggling to fight off an infection. You can catch contagious viruses that then go on to cause pneumonia (such as CV), but you don't catch pneumonia itself.

    Most people who die from CV will die as a result of either pneumonia or ARDS (respiratory failure). If figures for these causes of death are unusually low during this time, then chances are that they are being counted towards CV totals. There should be more people dying of non-CV related pneumonia and ARDS, due to the demands on ICU capacity.
    I saw you later capitulated on this point. Why? Pneumonia is the condition in which one or both of your lungs is inflamed from a viral, bacterial, or fungal infection and fill with liquid. You drown on dry land.

    I believe this tangent started with wuf wondering if other deaths, including pneumonia deaths may be erroneously getting counted as Covid deaths. Well, yes, insomuch as an authority is counting deaths that don't have positive laboratory tests, but instead and being attributed due to symptoms, it's possible. So it makes sense to wonder if non Covid-19 pneumonia deaths are getting attributed to Covid-19, but it's important to understand that pneumonia, as well as ARDS are not infections themselves, but the condition by which infections kill.

    It may seem semantic, and it is, but this is not a gratuitous nit picking, the distinction actually matters to the discussion at hand.

    As for what the predicted impact Covid-19 should have on non Covid-19 deaths, I could see there being relevant variables that aren't readily apparent to laymen like us that could flip the model. For example, is it possible to have a case of fatal non-Covid-19 pneumonia, and then catch Covid-19? It would seem impossible, short of omniscience, to separate this death from the Covid-19 count.
  71. #521
    I saw you later capitulated on this point. Why?
    I thought I was wrong. Now I'm not so sure. I guess we have to ask what the most common cause of pneumonia is. If it's respiratory illnesses, as I suspect, then social distancing will still have an effect on mortality, because regular flu will be less active too. In fact, if the whole world socially isolates for another month, we could accidentally eradicate flu. That would be a nice bonus, and would have a massive net long term effect on population.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  72. #522
    Poop

    On restarting the economy: I think you're woefully wrong here. I'll give a hypothetical and an analogy, maybe you'll find either or both insightful.

    There's essentially no more easy way to get oil in the US. Therefore, production only makes sense when crude prices are high. Due to the breakdown of the Saudi/Russo cartel, they are both flooding the market with oil, depressing the price below the profit point for US shale producers. So, you'd think the shale producers would just close the tap, furlough everyone, and wait for MBS and Putin to sort their shit out, and for the price to rebound above their point of profit. Well, this isn't what is happening, instead they continue to pump oil at a loss for two reasons: for one, it's highly leveraged business and many producers simply need the cashflow to service their debt. Secondly, and far more important, it's extremely expensive to cap a well, and often times it damages the well, significantly reducing it's ultimate output should it be retapped. This is one industry, and their current crisis isn't primarily predicated on the pandemic, but it is illustrative of how shutting down and restarting complex systems is not necessarily as simple as flicking a light switch.

    Now for the hypothetical. Say a company is able to stay afloat, but they have to make some tough choices-- they need to fire some percent of their staff. Which percent are they going to fire? The bottom %. Surely people had an idea of who were the top performers and who weren't, but now it's being made explicit who the powers that be think those people are. If that relationship isn't permanently severed, it's certainly significantly damaged.

    Lastly I'll say that your reasoning here sounds awfully similar to someone insisting the UK would simply eat more fish to buoy the country against the negative economic effects of Brexit. Your model is absurdly simplistic and doesn't pass muster.
    Last edited by boost; 04-05-2020 at 02:27 PM.
  73. #523
    Quote Originally Posted by boost View Post
    For example, is it possible to have a case of fatal non-Covid-19 pneumonia, and then catch Covid-19? It would seem impossible, short of omniscience, to separate this death from the Covid-19 count.
    Of couse. Its also (imo much more) possible to have people who were dying from ARDS where the underyling cause was attributed to something else because at the time the death itself was not considered a huge surprise and/or CV-reported cases were low. "one more old geezer getting a cold that leads to pneumonia? ya, ok died from 'complications'."

    Much more likely 2 weeks ago than now, and 4 weeks ago than 2 weeks ago, but still..
  74. #524
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I thought I was wrong. Now I'm not so sure. I guess we have to ask what the most common cause of pneumonia is. If it's respiratory illnesses, as I suspect, then social distancing will still have an effect on mortality, because regular flu will be less active too. In fact, if the whole world socially isolates for another month, we could accidentally eradicate flu. That would be a nice bonus, and would have a massive net long term effect on population.
    The only cause of pneumonia is respiratory illness. It is caused by bacterial, fungal, or viral infections of the lung(s). You can have a respiratory illness that doesn't make it to the lungs, if it does, and if it causes fluid build up, that's pneumonia.
  75. #525
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Of couse. Its also (imo much more) possible to have people who were dying from ARDS where the underyling cause was attributed to something else because at the time the death itself was not considered a huge surprise and/or CV-reported cases were low. "one more old geezer getting a cold that leads to pneumonia? ya, ok died from 'complications'."

    Much more likely 2 weeks ago than now, and 4 weeks ago than 2 weeks ago, but still..
    Yeah, agreed.

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