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CORONAVIRUS PANIC WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE

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  1. #151
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Do we know the rate of this need?
    I saw a figure somewhere that suggested around 5% of cases require intensive care of some sort. This is why the mortality rate rises from around 1% to 4% at a critical point. Not sure how accurate these figures are, so take with a huge pinch of salt.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  2. #152
    Apparently Harvey Weinstein has it. Obviously it will kill him.

    Assange will get it too.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #153
    Over time we might find that what happened over this time period is much different than we currently think. A sign of that coming could be such differentiation in results that different countries seem to experience.
  4. #154
    CoccoBill's Avatar
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    That's true, we don't know how many people are infected, so the rates for hospitalization and deaths are rough estimates. Testing is expensive, poop quoted $35 but apparently here the PCR tests cost 200€ and take 2 days, a 15 minute test is coming out soon. The PCR tests are lab work and have limited capacity, here at the moment 1500 tests per day, being raised to 2500. Testing everyone would cost a billion and take 5 years.

    The best data we have is from South Korea and Singapore, who have had the most aggressive testing schemes, however obviously nowhere near the full population. The numbers I've seen are the same as Ong, with proper care as low as 0.4% mortality rates, up to 4% if the ICUs are overrun. Now take your country's population and estimate losses for 20, 40 and 60% of the population being infected.
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  5. #155
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  6. #156
    He sure is humble that guy: "Hey look at all the people who agree with me!" I mean, he seriously went to the trouble of listing their names one by one and how they endorsed him.

    Out of the 'experts' he listed, I know Frank Harrell. Nice guy, great at stats, but not an expert on epidemiology

    Then he has a list of 'thinkers'. Holy fuck, I had no idea there were people doing any thinking out there.

    Steven Pinker was one of these. So what? It's like me saying Kim Kardashian liked my last paper on motor control. No actually, it's like me writing a blog post to mention that Kim Kardashian and a bunch of other non-experts liked my paper. Hooray for me!

    What a fucking egomaniac.
  7. #157
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    I don't think any of that should affect the interpretation of the data in any way, right?

    As in, he might be a dick, he might be an egomaniac, and those lists partially or in their entirety are meaningless, but none of that makes what he says invalid. If there are factual errors, like the one you spotted, those would.
    Last edited by CoccoBill; 03-23-2020 at 04:02 AM.
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  8. #158
    Anyways, on to things that actually matter. Where are you guys getting 0.4% from?

    S. Korea has tested very aggressively. Out of the cases that have resolved, there are 111 deaths and 3166 recovered. The people who die 'resolve' sooner than the people who recover, so an over-estimate (and assuming they id'd every single case of CV, which seems unlikely) would be around 3% mortality.

    But, even if every single outstanding case survives, it's still 1.2%. To get to 0.4%, not only would every case they have now have to recover, they'd also have to have missed 2/3 cases nationwide. Seems optimistic.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
  9. #159
    We need some Italian mayors, please. These people aren't getting it.

    https://twitter.com/tomrichell/statu...48910042996742
  10. #160
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    The outstanding cases only include confirmed/tested cases. The assumption is that 80% have mild or no symptoms, so missing 2/3 of the cases is maybe not unlikely. Many countries, mine included is not testing everyone with flu symptoms, only severe cases requiring hospitalization. We have 600 confirmed cases but the estimate for the real number is 12000-18000.
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  11. #161
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    The 0.4% might be from China's numbers, not really sure but I've seen that number quoted as the low end with proper ICU care.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  12. #162
    Quote Originally Posted by CoccoBill View Post
    The assumption is that 80% have mild or no symptoms, so missing 2/3 of the cases is maybe not unlikely.
    This seems key, but the only way we would know this is if we blanket tested everybody, or at least some large sample. How do you know x% have no/mild symptoms if they never get confirmed as having CV because they have mild/no symptoms? There's no numbers to do the math on.

    From digging around a bit, the estimates I see are lower than that.

    Taking the results from several studies into account, Chowell thinks that asymptomatic or mild cases combined represent about 40–50% of all infections.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00822-x
  13. #163
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    I guess that would mean that the situation regarding the number of infections currently is somewhat better than feared, but on the other hand things might get a lot worse soon. All the more reason to lock down everything non-essential asap. Interesting to see what's gonna happen in Sweden, who are still going with the UK strategy of trying to slow down infections.
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  14. #164
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    Here's where the 0.4% is from:

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf

    "Table 1: Current estimates of the severity of cases. The IFR estimates from Verity et al. have been adjusted to account for a non-uniform attack rate giving an overall IFR of 0.9% (95% credible interval 0.4%-1.4%)."
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  15. #165
    Ah, thanks.

    How these numbers work is (assuming the range of 0.4 to 1.4% is based on the right parameters - i.e., they've fed the correct information into their model), 0.9% is the most likely to be correct estimate, and the probability of each value higher or lower than 0.9% falls off like a normal curve as you go up or down from there. So the peak of the curve is 0.9%, the tails are 0.4% on one side and 1.4% on the other.

    With a 95% credible range, 0.4% IFR or lower has a 2.5% (half of 100-95%) chance of being correct - again though that is assuming their model includes the correct information, which I'm in no position to judge.


    Oh, and nice to see I get a 5-10% chance of hospitalization or worse if I catch it at my age (51). Guess I'll just stay inside for the next 18 months then.

    Edit: Actually my immune system is probably stronger than most people - i rarely get colds and i havent had the 'flu since I was a kid. Still not going to be hanging out in any crowds though!
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 03-23-2020 at 06:25 AM.
  16. #166
  17. #167
    Craziest thing is that we still use toilet paper like fucking savages.

    Bidets exist, yo. If somebody shit on your face, you wouldn't wipe it with tissue and call it good. Not sure why it's okay for asses though.
  18. #168
    I haven't dry wiped in probably a decade save for a few desperate cases where I showered as soon as possible.

    Dry wiping is legit gross.
  19. #169
    “We Should Pay Almost Anything to Shorten the Shut Down...100 Manhattan Projects.”

    https://medium.com/@jseims/covid-19-...t-f54b75a12fca
  20. #170
    The U.S. Office of Management and Budget puts the value of a human life in the range of $7 million to $9 million.
    lol
  21. #171
    Quote Originally Posted by boost View Post
    I haven't dry wiped in probably a decade save for a few desperate cases where I showered as soon as possible.

    Dry wiping is legit gross.
    Yup.
  22. #172
    I wipe until my arse is clean. I only moisten the bog roll if needs be.

    I did buy a box of tissues and some firelighter, to make sure bog roll isn't wasted on nose blowing and fire starting. And I've also located a bunch of old socks that I'm prepared to use in an emergency.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  23. #173
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    Funny thing is that while on vacation, every bathroom had both TP and a little hand-held bidet.

    Neither me nor my lady even touched the bidets. We spoke about it the other day and we were both just being shy nerds about it. Like, what is that thing? Why so many buttons? What if I press the wrong button and ice cold water gets sprayed all over my junk and worse, my clothes? Is there a manual? What's the water pressure like? Will it blast me if I just push the button down all the way? Should I push the buttons gently? After I use it... I'm still sitting there with a wet ass, right? So I still have to wipe it dry with TP, anyway?


    So many awkward questions to deal with, and being a bathroom thing, it's not something to bring up out of nowhere. Kind of embarrassing, too. Sorry, but I'm not from here, can you potty train me?


    After we talked about it, we both agreed that we missed out on a lot of fun by being too reserved to confront the awkwardness.
    It would have been a fun conversation with our friend. We could all laugh about how everyone knows how to use these, but us. Then we'd have used them, and I've only heard good things, so ...


    Don't let your social awkwardness prevent you from squirting anything you like at your private bits.
    Just grab the nearest sentient being and start asking questions.
    ... is what I wish I had done, in retrospect.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  24. #174
    For most of my life, I thought a bidet was for cleaning feet. I think I've only seen one once or twice in my life. The idea that you squirt water up your arse to clean it is quite amusing to me. And yes, it still needs drying. Admittedly, you can just stand there and let it drip dry if there's no bog roll, but still, I'd rather not.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  25. #175
    Trump openly questioning if the "cure is worse than the virus". I was basically asking this question not so long ago, and I've come to realise the answer is... depends how many ICUs you have.

    Italy has just announced their daily figures... the number of dead has risen, but the number of new infections has decreased. That suggests two things... one, that their measures are paying off, and two, that they are at maximum intensive care capacity and more people than necessary are dying.

    I am certainly no longer of the opinion that allowing this virus to run rampant through the population is a viable option. In the UK, I'd expect that to result in around 2m deaths from CV alone, with more from other illnesses due to lack of ICUs. I suspect this is the kind of information that Boris got that made him change track. Like I said in the other thread, "herd immunity" is not total bollocks. But it's also not a plan A. It's a reasonable consideration if projected deaths are in the tens of thousands, as it potentially saves more lives in the future. But if the cost is closer to a million, it's a completely different ball game.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  26. #176
    Yep-- also herd immunity comes about in two different ways:

    1 we develop a vaccine and immunize all who can safely have the vaccine administered

    2 lots and lots of people die, and the survivors develop immunity, thereby leaving the remaining population immune.

    I believe these two things get conflated when people talk about Covid19. We don't have a vaccine yet, so championing herd immunity in this case is to call for the deaths of potentially tens of millions of people.

    p.s. Ong, you are not wiping until your ass is clean, you're wiping until you don't see streaks. If you stepped in dog shit with a barefoot, you wouldn't wipe it with dry paper until the paper doesn't show streaks. You'd wash your fucking foot-- at minimum you'd run a hose over it as you wiped. Also, it doesn't spray IN your asshole. Also dry wiping is for savages. Also your asshole is constantly filthy.
  27. #177
    1. Trump is taking a big hit in $$$ personally with the shutdown of hotels, golf courses, etc.. Gee, I wonder if that has any influence over his attitude? Oh wait, actually no I don't wonder that at all. Because it's Trump.

    2. Herd immunity is a legitimate strategy for dealing with a disease you can't contain no matter what you do. I.e., if the virus were going to infect everyone in a short time regardless, then herd immunity is going to happen eventually (assuming we can hold a long-term immunity to a coronavirus, which seems unlikely, cf. the common cold, 'flu), and there's no point in taking costly measures to try to stop transmission. That's not the case here, however, because proper steps can delay transmission and buy us time to create a vaccine. This is the long-game scientific strategy which was promoted by WHO and most experts. Somehow the UK had its own group of experts who thought they knew better, until they ran the numbers again and realized they were wrong.

    3. Can we have a separate thread for issues related to toiler paper and ass wiping? Not because I think it's that important, I just like the idea of an entire thread dedicated to it.
  28. #178
    I mean we basically have herd immunity from Spanish flu... that's why swine flu didn't fuck us too bad. But the cost humanity paid in 1919 for this herd immunity was huge, and not a cost we should be openly willing to pay.

    Also, all of our arses are constantly filthy. Gas is constantly seeping out, bringing with it fresh particles of shit. More so if you regularly fart like a champ. I wipe until it appears clean, then get on with my life. I haven't come down with cholera yet. And yes, if I get dog shit on my foot, I wash it, not dry wipe it. That's because a) it's my foot, not my arse, and b) it's dog shit, not my shit. I'm not that bothered about my anal hygiene, if I'm honest. So long as I don't have shitty underwear, I'm happy with a dry wipe after a shit, and a bath three times a week to keep my arse acceptably clean. Don't care if I'm a savage.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  29. #179
    3. Can we have a separate thread for issues related to toiler paper and ass wiping?
    No, I like talking about shit and filthy arses in the same thread as a global pandemic.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  30. #180
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I mean we basically have herd immunity from Spanish flu... that's why swine flu didn't fuck us too bad. But the cost humanity paid in 1919 for this herd immunity was huge, and not a cost we should be openly willing to pay.
    Not an expert, but my understanding is there is no guarantee we get immunity from a single bout of CV. The antibodies eventually go away is what I heard.


    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Also, all of our arses are constantly filthy. Gas is constantly seeping out, bringing with it fresh particles of shit. More so if you regularly fart like a champ. I wipe until it appears clean, then get on with my life. I haven't come down with cholera yet. And yes, if I get dog shit on my foot, I wash it, not dry wipe it. That's because a) it's my foot, not my arse, and b) it's dog shit, not my shit. I'm not that bothered about my anal hygiene, if I'm honest. So long as I don't have shitty underwear, I'm happy with a dry wipe after a shit, and a bath three times a week to keep my arse acceptably clean. Don't care if I'm a savage.
    Please move to tp,hp,ah thread I created. This debate will be searched for years from now to give me pleasure and I'd like it held in one convenient place.
  31. #181
    Not an expert, but my understanding is there is no guarantee we get immunity from a single bout of CV. The antibodies eventually go away is what I heard.
    Obviously I have to point out that I am not an expert either, but I assume immunity will eventually happen if we are exposed to a virus. If it were flu, then I'd say this with a lot more confidence, but this isn't flu. That said, it is still a virus, and our immune systems essentially learn.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  32. #182
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Bog roll is something I'd consider essential, just not as essential as some things. I'd put in in the second group of "essential goods", along with tampons. Food, water, medicine and shelter are the "group one" essentials.

    It is in category two, and so is other personal hygiene stuff. If hoard lady had gone in and bought all the toothpaste and shampoo in that store, she'd also be a cunt.


    The only thing that makes toilet paper a grey area is that in a pinch you can pretty much use anything to wipe your ass. An old sock, for example. Can't really brush your teeth with an old sock though.

    Old socks are my first port of call. For arse wiping, of course. For teeth brushing, well a toothbrush with no paste is better than nothing.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  33. #183
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Obviously I have to point out that I am not an expert either, but I assume immunity will eventually happen if we are exposed to a virus. If it were flu, then I'd say this with a lot more confidence, but this isn't flu. That said, it is still a virus, and our immune systems essentially learn.
    The flu is the perfect counter example-- it is fast mutating and herd immunity only comes through the flu vaccine, which is a gamble each year, since the epidemiologists need to predict which strain of flu will be most dominant and vaccinate against that. So, yes, our immune systems learn, but viruses mutate (learn) too, and some (this one and the flu) much faster than others.
  34. #184
    Viruses do indeed mutate, but it's because they're evolving, and their evolutionary goal is to basically infect as many lifeforms as possible. They can do that better if they are more contagious, and less harmful. I'm not suggesting that viruses plan their evolutionary future, but ideal evolution is to be less severe, to the point of being completely harmless.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  35. #185
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    lol
    Is there something about the Statistical Value of Life you would like to discuss?
  36. #186
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Viruses do indeed mutate, but it's because they're evolving, and their evolutionary goal is to basically infect as many lifeforms as possible. They can do that better if they are more contagious, and less harmful. I'm not suggesting that viruses plan their evolutionary future, but ideal evolution is to be less severe, to the point of being completely harmless.
    Is there not an advantage for a virus in making you sick but not dead? E.g., if your body responds to a virus by leaking fluids (e.g., runny nose, sneezing), that should make it easier to transmit to another host.
  37. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    Is there not an advantage for a virus in making you sick but not dead? E.g., if your body responds to a virus by leaking fluids (e.g., runny nose, sneezing), that should make it easier to transmit to another host.
    Absolutely, and apparently there are many that are harmless (to humans) and even some that are beneficial. There's ones that only attack bacteria, for example. Killing the host too quickly is a good way to go extinct.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  38. #188
    I know this belongs in the other thread, but half of your poop's volume by weight is dead bacteria cells that normally live in your colon digesting your food. Fact.

    That's why antibiotics fuck up your digestion. It takes months for the normal intestinal flora to re-populate (re-poopulate?) itself.
  39. #189
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    Yeah, I've been on Michael Mosley's gut biome diet for over a year. Greek yoghurt and fermented foods ftw.
    Our brains have just one scale, and we resize our experiences to fit.

  40. #190
    Ok, so how many of these people:

    a) Have to go to work because they are essential workers, and/or are going out to get food, medicine, etc.?

    b) Have to go to work because their boss told them 'business as usual' and they can't risk losing their jobs?

    c) Are tossers?

  41. #191
    Most fit into category (b).

    Is there not an advantage for a virus in making you sick but not dead? E.g., if your body responds to a virus by leaking fluids (e.g., runny nose, sneezing), that should make it easier to transmit to another host.

    Certainly. The common cold is basically the perfect virus... harmless but highly contagious.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  42. #192
    I thought there was 80% coverage of lost wages or whatever.
  43. #193
    There are many viable "strategies" for a virus. The common cold is certainly one, but something with a very long incubation period and a high death rate could be another. It's hard to imagine what the evolutionary pressure would be on the virus to become less deadly if there's plenty of opportunity for it to spread before its host dies. But as others have said, I am not an expert and just playing with ideas here.
  44. #194
    Yep. But if the virus kills too many people, it's harder for it to spread.

    Lots of pushes and pulls on how these work is my understanding.
  45. #195
    NY governor said "we do not put a dollar figure on human life".

    The governor is wrong. We absolutely do put a dollar figure on human life.

    We can save more lives by doing the lowest cost options to save lives.

    Or lives can be wasted by not doing the lowest cost options to save lives.
  46. #196
    Quote Originally Posted by Poopadoop View Post
    I thought there was 80% coverage of lost wages or whatever.
    That isn't stopping bosses telling their staff they can and therefore must work. It's not just "key workers" who are allowed to work... it's anyone who can do so safely. It's basically for a company to decide if it's safe for their employees to work.

    The 80% thing isn't going to make money for businesses, it's just going to stop them going under.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  47. #197
    Quote Originally Posted by boost View Post
    There are many viable "strategies" for a virus. The common cold is certainly one, but something with a very long incubation period and a high death rate could be another. It's hard to imagine what the evolutionary pressure would be on the virus to become less deadly if there's plenty of opportunity for it to spread before its host dies. But as others have said, I am not an expert and just playing with ideas here.
    There may be a higher probability that a species will adapt their immune system more aggressively against a more serious virus.

    I too am just spitballing ideas here, there is no expertise or research into this at all.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  48. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    NY governor said "we do not put a dollar figure on human life".

    The governor is wrong. We absolutely do put a dollar figure on human life.

    We can save more lives by doing the lowest cost options to save lives.

    Or lives can be wasted by not doing the lowest cost options to save lives.
    Putting a cost on life is an everyday reality for a lot of jobs, actually.
    Doctors, insurance actuaries, politicians, military leaders...

    Money isn't infinite, and difficult choices have to be made on a daily basis.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  49. #199
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Putting a cost on life is an everyday reality for a lot of jobs, actually.
    Doctors, insurance actuaries, politicians, military leaders...

    Money isn't infinite, and difficult choices have to be made on a daily basis.
    Very true.
  50. #200
    It's easy to demonstrate that a life has a monetary value, just not so easy to identify that value.

    Let's go to the extreme... let x be all the money in the world. If it would cost x to save one life, should x be spent saving that life? Clearly not, because that would result in millions of other people dying. Therefore, the value of a life is less than x.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  51. #201
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    It's easy to demonstrate that a life has a monetary value, just not so easy to identify that value.

    Let's go to the extreme... let x be all the money in the world. If it would cost x to save one life, should x be spent saving that life? Clearly not, because that would result in millions of other people dying. Therefore, the value of a life is less than x.
    Bingo.

    Your example is great at establishing the concept.

    Business has more clearly defined it and uses it concretely with the cost-benefit analysis:

    You decide you have to make a new decision in a selected domain. To come to the "best" decision, you come up with the two "best" options. You then compare these two best options, and you will always do one of them. The one with the highest net benefit is the one you do.



    We are in this exact situation right now when we have to decide at what point we kill more people by killing the economy than we save by not killing the economy. Obviously, this is super simplified. There are billions of variables baked into all this, many of which we can't measure so easily against each other.
  52. #202
  53. #203
    Oh look, an economist has solved the problem:

    https://twitter.com/omaclaren/status...79825333657601
  54. #204
    There are other ways to establish the concept of the monetary value of a life.

    You have three buttons in front of you. One will save the life of a random person somewhere in the world. One will kill a random person somewhere in the world, and also add $1m to your bank account. One will kill a person you can observe, and add $1b to your bank account.

    Which button do you press? You're going to think about it, that's for sure.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  55. #205
    People who say lives aren't worth money are either stupid, or virtue signalling.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  56. #206
    https://www.thoughtco.com/worth-of-y...ements-3976054

    Somewhere between $1 and $4.50 according to this.
  57. #207
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    People ... virtue signal
    Oh virtual signalling. It keeps you safe among the group, but keeps the group less safe.
  58. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    There are other ways to establish the concept of the monetary value of a life.

    You have three buttons in front of you. One will save the life of a random person somewhere in the world. One will kill a random person somewhere in the world, and also add $1m to your bank account. One will kill a person you can observe, and add $1b to your bank account.

    Which button do you press? You're going to think about it, that's for sure.
    *smashes btn 2 repeatedly*
    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  59. #209
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    What right wing pundits are talking about right now with life vs economy numbers... we're probably talking way way under 1M per life if people go back to work... and we're not talking about saving lives by sacrificing lives because these people wouldn't die... most people don't have the wealth to be significantly impacted by an economic downturn. This is about people risking life and limb to keep up the profits of their employers while they don't even get increased pay. I can't get behind the mind of a supermarket worker who keeps working for minimum wage right now. If these fuckers threaten a general strike they could snap double their wages right now.


    The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
  60. #210
    Kill one person you can observe for $1bn then donate it to disease prevention in third world and save more lives by orders of magnitude
  61. #211
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Kill one person you can observe for $1bn then donate it to disease prevention in third world and save more lives by orders of magnitude
    Pfft. Donate half of it, still save lives, and be filthy rich.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  62. #212
    I can't get behind the mind of a supermarket worker who keeps working for minimum wage right now. If these fuckers threaten a general strike they could snap double their wages right now.
    If I had an essential job right now, which clearly a supermarket worker is, I'd feel particularly selfish if I didn't go in, unless I was feeling unwell of course. People who work in supermarkets will be grateful they have a job that can ride an economic downturn of this magnitude. Walking out now might be something you regret in the future.

    If these people threatened a strike, it could cause looting and riots. It would be massively reckless. If you're not happy with your wage, quit.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  63. #213
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    If I had an essential job right now, which clearly a supermarket worker is, I'd feel particularly selfish if I didn't go in, unless I was feeling unwell of course. People who work in supermarkets will be grateful they have a job that can ride an economic downturn of this magnitude. Walking out now might be something you regret in the future.

    If these people threatened a strike, it could cause looting and riots. It would be massively reckless. If you're not happy with your wage, quit.
    Wait wat?

    So it's selfish to not want to do a dangerous, possibly life-risking and low-paying job, but it's totally understandable to hoard toilet paper?
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 03-25-2020 at 11:37 AM.
  64. #214
    I didn't say it wasn't selfish to hoard toilet paper. I just said it's understandable because people behave in unusual ways when they panic.

    Supermarkets are the most essential service right now. More so than the NHS. I know that sounds batshit, but if the people can't get food, then they either starve or it's looting time. Supermarket workers have quite a heavy burden on their shoulders. If an individual isn't up to the task, stand aside and let someone else take your job. There's lots of people right now who need it.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  65. #215
    Kind of a moot point anyways since there's no way they'd have the balls to go on strike right now, even though they are being somewhat exploited.

    Can you imagine the NHS going on strike, or the police? They'd have the Army dragging them back to work in about 2 seconds. Same would happen with Tesco.
  66. #216
    I think so. It would be foolish to go on strike over money anyway, I mean usually nobody gives a fuck about shelf stackers, but right now they are rightly being hailed as national heroes. Throwing a tantrum over money while people are dying due to a pandemic would be extremely callous.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  67. #217
    Last edited by Poopadoop; 03-25-2020 at 03:18 PM.
  68. #218
    It appears that cases in Washington are falling behind many other states at a quickened pace. WA deaths look to be over the hump (probably) and declining (probably).

    Could indicate how the virus was going around here for about 2 months before people paid much attention.
  69. #219
    How the hell does the USA not notice it has a 1% killer virus outbreak for two months? I think there's a lot of people who got regular nasty flu and now think they had Wuhan plague. My housemates say exactly the same, that they had it before Christmas. Bollocks did they.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  70. #220
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post

    Could indicate how the virus was going around here for about 2 months before people paid much attention.

    Could be, and it's interesting to speculate how many deaths in various places were attributed to 'flu before anyone thought to start testing for CV.

    Otoh, the best predictor of number of cases reported is number of tests done. If they're still not testing many people in some places where it isn't currently 'hot', they're likely still underestimating the number of cases by a large margin.

    In the UK, for example, you only get tested if you are sick enough to need a hospital visit (afaik). So, who knows how many people are currently sitting in their homes with mild or asymptomatic cases and not being counted.
  71. #221
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    How the hell does the USA not notice it has a 1% killer virus outbreak for two months? I think there's a lot of people who got regular nasty flu and think they had Wuhan plague. My housemates say exactly the same, that they had it before Christmas. Bollocks did they.
    Theoretically, it takes < day someone to fly from China to the UK. That, plus a train ride to wherever you live is about how long behind China your area could be.

    As far as someone thinking they had it before xmas in the UK, the chances are probably like 9999/10000 it was seasonal flu. Maybe if they had some corona-specific symptoms I'd be inclined to take their claim seriously, but otherwise nah.
  72. #222
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    How the hell does the USA not notice it has a 1% killer virus outbreak for two months?
    Possibly because people don't know how easily a virus can spread. Media reported the couple cases we got as quarantined and basically fixed. They did NOT report that finding those cases at our airport and a few other spots almost certainly meant the virus was spreading undetected.

    At that time, people thought it would be closer to SARS or swine flu, meaning that they might not be a big deal to the US.
  73. #223
    I think you can get a good idea of how many people are being tested by comparing cases to death rate. In Germany, where testing is widespread, cases/death ratio is low, while in Italy it is terrible. I assume in Italy testing is not so widespread, and also their health system has collapsed. In the UK, our case/death ratio isn't actually too bad, so either people are being tested, or our health system is performing better than average.

    With a functioning health system, this is under 1% imo. That's still bad if everyone gets it.

    I saw a report that there's a country that is unsatisfied with the accuracy of their mass testing, I think it was Spain but don't quote me on that. Our govt is absolutely right to ensure the test is as accurate as it can be before mass producing it. Unreliable test results could make the problem worse.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  74. #224
    Sainsbury (a local supermarket) today was forcing people to queue to go into the store, and only letting another person in when someone else left. I'm thinking 'oh good.'

    Then I noticed that at the entryway they had about six attendants all standing together to shepherd people in and out, so that everyone who entered the store had to walk within breathing distance of them on the way in, and then again on the way out. Fuck me.

    I went to Waitrose instead.
  75. #225
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    Possibly because people don't know how easily a virus can spread. Media reported the couple cases we got as quarantined and basically fixed. They did NOT report that finding those cases at our airport and a few other spots almost certainly meant the virus was spreading undetected.

    At that time, people thought it would be closer to SARS or swine flu, meaning that they might not be a big deal to the US.
    SARS is a fucking big deal if it takes hold like this fucker has done. We're extremely lucky they got on top of SARS before it got out of hand. It would be a lot, lot worse if this was SARS, and if it were MERS then we're into plague territory.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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