Bigspenda's January Bets

[bigspenda73]

Whatsup SB crew? I know we're all gonna torch it in '07. I think between a lot of bettors here we have developed quite a little system. Mucho credito goes to Lee and Zook who sucked me into this sportsbetting stuff. I have not been keeping a running tally so I am going to start now. This thread will hold all of my bets from NFL playoffs, to the final few bowl games, NBA, and NCAABB. I only have enough of a roll to have money on one site. My main goal is to have a good JAN/FEB and be able to transfer some money to another book. These bets will be made on some of the formulas from you guys here. Basically +/- units based on the following:

1. Public opinion
2. Sharp money
3. Line Moves
4. Leans

First bet:
CLE m/l (+whatever) vs. Spurs
More I think about it, more I like this. Spurs team was recently hit by a flu bug. Cleveland matches up well with the Spurs and the Spurs have had trouble recently with big-time scorers (see Michael Redd). CLE beat SA in Texas earlier in the year. Probably a 1 unit play here.

[bigspenda73]

Well, I have to blame work on this one. I had to be in at 5 AM this morning and I crashed after work never getting my bet in. That's going to keep my tally at 0-0 for now. Damn, would have been nice to start up.

[bigspenda73]

Betting Marquette tonight in NCAABB. I must be missing something cause this has had weird line movement. I probably just make it a 1 unit play as I will admit I am a bit confused by it.

Marq m/l +120 ~1 unit

[bigspenda73]

Wait, SHIT. OK, Marq opens at -1 and 65% of the money is on them. The line moves to PROV -2.5. Wait, I fucked this up. God damnit. I think I have to counter. Fuck.

Placing this bet.
PROV -2.5 (-110) ~1 unit

Here's the scenarios.
Providence wins by more than 2= push
Providence wins by 1,2= -2 units
Marquette wins= +.25 unit

Damn I hate screwin up

[bigspenda73]

2 more bets and Im done for the night. Love betting these obscure NCAABB games. These are two WAC teams I know alot about seeing how I graduated from a WAC school.

UTAH ST. +3.5 (-110) ~1 unit
UTAH ST m/l +155 ~1 unit

[bigspenda73]

Well good. I realized my mistake and broke even on the Providence/Marq game. If I had just placed my bet correctly the first time....

Let's go UTAH STATE!!!

[bigspenda73]

Alright, for tonight

1 unit FL. +7 (-110)
1 unit FL m/l +240

No reasoning, just wanted to have a play on the game otherwise I find it quite boring. The OVER looks good to me as both team will have had a lot of time to work on some new plays. Ehh, I'll stay off it though.

[bigspenda73]

Weee won 3.4 units last night YAY me!! Guess it's time to update.

MTD 3-3

Sides 2-1
M/l Dogs 1-2
+1.4 units

Plays for tonight

PHI +2.5 (-110)~1 unit
From what I have seen the money is flying onto Detroit yet they have become .5 LESS of a favorite. Hmmm, maybe I'm missing something, is someone hurt?

SEA/PHO Under 217.5 (-110)~1 unit
Another system bet. Plus, SEA will go on lulls throughout a game, hoping to take advantage of the public's perception of these two teams scoring prowess.

[zook]

PHI +2.5 (-110)~1 unit
From what I have seen the money is flying onto Detroit yet they have become .5 LESS of a favorite. Hmmm, maybe I'm missing something, is someone hurt?

Yeah, this is weird. Philly sucks, public money's on Detroit and the line has either barely moved (from Det -1.5 to -2 at Pinny) or done a reverse move (from Det -4 to -2 at BetCris). Detroit has lost 4 of 5 and has been terrible without Billups (who's still out) but still this line seems low. I'll probably put a unit on the Sixers too.

Another interesting game is Cle/Sac. Public money is ~50/50, but the line's moved from Sac -2.5 to -3.5 and may go higher. Looks like some sharp money is on Sac and I'm going to join them.

[bigspenda73]

Thanks padz, I'll look at it

Ended up taking PHI m/l at +115 b/c the line dropped to +2 (-110)
Also got the under of PHO/SEA at 218 (-105)

I really am looking into going against my Aggies tonight @Baylor. Baylor just lost to Ok St. by 4 and play very tough in the big 12. It wouldn't be a m/l play, just a line play. I'll think about it.

[bigspenda73]

Meh, break even night. Almost faded Zook and went w/ the CLE m/l but it didn't look right (like Zook suggested). Sometimes the plays don't fit my system, therefore I will not bet them.

PHO/SEA Under covers
PHI m/l loses

MTD 4-4

Sides 2-1
Totals 1-0
M/l Dogs 1-3
+1.4 units

[bigspenda73]

Alright, some plays for tonight

First, going with Lee on this one.

FORDHAM +6 (-110)~1 unit
FORDHAM +220~1 unit

Im wondering if I should even bet the +6 as Fordham is at home. Money is all over Xavier and the line has either not moved or moved the wrong way depending on the site you are on.

Second bet

DREXEL -9.5~1 unit

Money all over Hofstra and yet Drexel becomes more of a favorite.

CLE +320~1 unit
This is just a what the heck kinda play. Im hoping CLE can win this game 1 out of 4 times in Phoenix.