I agree with everything you just wrote. Just don't go editing it and writing in something crazy instead.
12-10-2013 04:58 PM
#151
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I agree with everything you just wrote. Just don't go editing it and writing in something crazy instead. | |
12-12-2013 01:55 AM
#152
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What you guys are saying, I pretty much agree with. | |
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12-12-2013 05:25 PM
#153
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If it's a real thing, then you are also really telling the offense they can't get X yards. How are you determining which EV is greater? Have you seen the Peyton Manning face every time his teams punt on 4th and short? | |
12-13-2013 09:45 AM
#154
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To be fair, I do concede that things like momentum and motivation and getting your QB in rhythm and such are probably more of a real thing in football than they are in most sports. I also absolutely agree that a head coach's biggest jobs are getting 53 people's head in the right place and out-scheming the other coach and things like that (which is why in football I'm like, "Andy Reid's a great coach; he just shouldn't be in charge of game management decisions" whereas in baseball, I'm like, "Just fucking fire Charlie Manuel"). On any given play, you have to have 11 out of 11 players focused and knowing what their role is because just one penalty or one blown assignment fucks a whole play. As home vs away rushing stats can attest to, getting the guys in the trenches confident and emotionally jacked up has a very real effect on play (though getting off the line faster due to crowd noise at home obviously has something to do with it). | |
Last edited by surviva316; 12-13-2013 at 09:50 AM. | |
12-13-2013 10:04 AM
#155
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I also imagine there's some quite delicious advantages to your metagame if you're capable of running the ball on any 3rd down of shorter than 8 yards on any part of the field from your own 40 to the opponents' 35 (or even deeper into the opponents' territory, depending on conditions). Honestly, the same goes for 2nd and 10, but now we're getting kinda marginal. | |
12-16-2013 10:12 PM
#156
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Advanced NFL stats started a podcast a couple months ago (12 episodes so possibly 3 months). So far, some super nerdy interviews with people who did sabermetrics before it was cool. | |
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12-23-2013 03:52 PM
#157
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One point I wanted to make about the 4th downs thing that I have never seen pointed out before is that all of game models/suggestions on when to go for it on 4th downs, which collectively are well beyond what even the average fan wants to see, probably even undersells the game theory optimal rate to go for it. The reason is that all of those models are based on actual NFL data points and all that implies-- like it is already taking into account what coaches are actually doing. Well if we make the rather safe assumption that coaches are doing things that aren't optimal (whether it be poor run/pass balance, bad play selection, or not going for it enough on 4th downs), all those things bring down the average value of a possession. As the value of a possession goes up, so to does the reward for getting another possession. I'm not sure how much 'extra' that is worth, it probably isn't very much, but it's something to consider if/when the paradigm starts shifting. | |
12-25-2013 12:15 AM
#158
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seattle wins this year barring a major disaster imo i concur | |
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12-26-2013 02:57 AM
#159
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01-06-2014 03:30 AM
#160
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Have some stuff I wanted to say about the Eagles and didn't know where to say it, so I chose here. | |
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01-11-2014 08:08 PM
#161
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TOM BRADY | |
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01-19-2014 02:35 PM
#162
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Pats at Broncos | |
01-19-2014 02:40 PM
#163
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TOM BRADY | |
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01-19-2014 02:41 PM
#164
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And people wonder how my post count is so high | |
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01-19-2014 02:48 PM
#165
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HEY NFL FANS LET'S GAMBLE ONTHE SUPER BOWL, BUY SOME SQUARES: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ng-196961.html | |
01-23-2014 06:08 PM
#166
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Made some money on Seattle in the last game. Trying to figure out how big of favorites I think they are in this game. The line has them as a dog, but that's wrong. I haven't followed NFL in forever, but from everything I've caught up on in the last couple games, it looks like the Legion of Boom will frustrate Manning too much and then the hawks win. The most likely way Denver wins is if Manning gets out ahead early, but that isn't terribly likely |
01-23-2014 06:50 PM
#167
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Just wait til the refs start calling ticky tack pass interference that they haven't called all year on Seattle, and the important 50/50 calls go Denver's way. | |
01-23-2014 06:55 PM
#168
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can you show me an example? |
01-23-2014 06:57 PM
#169
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Also I wouldn't be surprised if the refs pay extra special attention to not calling on Seattle since they already won the SB once but refs gave it to Pittsburgh instead. Not saying but saying |
01-23-2014 07:19 PM
#170
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An example of what? | |
01-23-2014 07:28 PM
#171
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Oh I just didn't even know what you meant by "ticky tack". I haven't followed football in forever and don't know many terms. Did some googling though, and this was one of the first examples |
01-23-2014 07:38 PM
#172
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My main point (or joke? or whatever), and it wasn't a very good one, was more about the refs than it was about Seattle's style of defense. I don't have any examples. I actually enjoy the way they play and wish sports leagues would avoid ticky tack calls in general. Ticky tack basically meaning calling silly shit instead of letting the players beat the hell out of each other, which is more entertaining. | |
01-25-2014 12:30 PM
#173
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I remember when we had a weekly NFL thread here. Now I can only get 1 person to respond when I insinuate that the Super Bowl might be rigged... damn Euros don't want to talk about handegg interrupted by 2 hours of commercials | |
01-25-2014 03:32 PM
#174
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you'd think they'd love the excitement of the nfl since they already love watching paint dry i mean watching soccer |
01-25-2014 03:48 PM
#175
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You only like it for the snack food porn that's on after every 5 seconds of play for 10 minutes. |
01-26-2014 03:29 PM
#176
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Welp. | |
Last edited by a500lbgorilla; 01-26-2014 at 03:47 PM. | |
01-26-2014 07:51 PM
#177
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There are a lot of problems with the NFL's rulebook and their general refereeing philosophy, but a big one is that they don't have default calls. There is no leeway for the ref to make a call that is the generally accepted call unless they definitively see otherwise. They have to make the perfect call all the time. This is obviously an impossible ideal, so what happens is that they make the call that's most likely right. So if a receiver falls down and the defender was close he enough that there's a good chance he might have caused that, then a flag gets thrown. | |
01-26-2014 07:59 PM
#178
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That was all in reply to Lukie, btw. I can also see the Seahawks having a difficult time for reasons that don't necessarily have to do with talent/scheming/any of that. In fact, it's fascinating to me that they've won 16/19 games so far with their formula given how much defenses have to put up with. But on the massive stage of the Super Bowl, facing an incredible offense, I can totally see something happening. Maybe not even a bad penalty or anything but just something not going their way that breaks their backs. | |
01-27-2014 02:21 PM
#179
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I'm not worried about the refs throwing more flags than we've been getting. It seems like every week we have opposing coaches complaining and going to the league about our style of defense, often in advance of a game trying to get help. If it was going to be a problem, the league would have told the refs to call us on it before. Our reputation already earns us some BS flags, but I'll take that any day when it also comes with the upside of how we can disrupt the passing game. All in all, it works out in our favor and, being a copycat league, I'm sure that other teams will start getting more physical as well if they think they can train their guys to toe the line like we do. I love it, and not just because I'm a Hawks fan, but because I've always been a fan of the "running game/tough defense" type of play. | |
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01-30-2014 11:59 PM
#180
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got maximum dollars riding on seattle. i haven't followed nfl closely enough to know for sure, and im merely dealing with theory, but it looks to me like the hawks should be a pretty huge favorite. denver has manning and that's it; hawks have everything that reliably stops manning, then they win. teams that rely on their passing game as heavily as denver should only win against the most well-rounded team in the league a small percentage of the time. manning's stellar year isn't so stellar when you account for the fact that the game has evolved away from rushing and denver has mostly played weak defenses |
02-02-2014 08:11 PM
#181
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Cliffs notes so far: Seattle looks by far the better and more prepared team, perhaps caught a couple breaks, up 22-0. | |
02-02-2014 11:07 PM
#182
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put substantially more money on seattle than i have with other bets, but should have put more. all signs pointed towards them being pretty significant favorites. i wonder if the claims that nfl betting is a disaster only apply to regular season, not the playoffs. it seems by the time the playoffs come around it might be easy peasy to analyze matchups stylistically and be right |
02-02-2014 11:22 PM
#183
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I'm not a sports bettor but this might help: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ | |
02-04-2014 04:23 PM
#184
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