Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,282,000 Posts!
Poker ForumFTR Community

2013 NFL thread

Page 2 of 3 FirstFirst 123 LastLast
Results 76 to 150 of 184
  1. #76
    This Dallas Denver game is pretty amazing. Romo just passed 500 yards passing. It's like a college score.
  2. #77
    Jack Sawyer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    7,650
    Location
    Jack-high straight flush motherfucker
    Steelers and Giants seem to be in a race for Clowney
    My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...


    Cogito ergo sum

    VHS is like a book? and a book is like a stack of kindles.
    Hey, I'm in a movie!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYdwe3ArFWA
  3. #78
    Jacksonville top draft pick Luke Joeckel out for the rest of the season with a fractured ankle. Could this spell the end of Jaguar domination?
  4. #79
    BankItDrew's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    8,303
    Location
    Losing Prop Bets
    dal vs den = best game i've ever seen
  5. #80
    Only putting up 21 against the Eagles while getting picked 3 times ranks right up there with all the terribleness of the Giants this season. At what point do we say that Eli isn't very good when he doesn't have a bus to drive?
  6. #81
    bode's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    8,050
    Location
    slow motion
    Colts fuckin up all those left coast teams!
    eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
  7. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by bikes View Post
    FUCK
    Last edited by drmcboy; 10-09-2013 at 01:25 PM. Reason: As requested
  8. #83
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post

    bigger version caused so much more pain.
  9. #84
    Jacksonville/Denver today. This is Peyton's chance to put up some astronomical numbers.
  10. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by abelardx View Post
    How bout them Jaguars!

    0-4

    They're gonna win today!

    ...maybe not
  11. #86
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    CMON BROWNS
  12. #87
    bode's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    8,050
    Location
    slow motion
    thanks to ensign_lee's texans shitting the bed this season, the colts have a great chance of winning the AFC South this year. something i never thought they had a chance of coming into this season.
    eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
  13. #88
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    HAHAHAH SUCKS TO BE YOU DREW BREES
  14. #89
    These rules are getting ridiculous fast. How about this: If you're a QB, you can be protected in one of two ways:

    1) Stay in the pocket. So long as you are in the pocket going about the motions of being a passer, then there are a litany of rules protecting you from getting bonked on the head and such that are called "Roughing the Passer."*

    2) Slide. The second you leave the pocket, you're still protected by your own unique set of rules! Unlike any other ball carrier, if you don't feel like being at the mercy of all legal hits, then you get to slide and if anyone touches, you get 15 yards tacked to the end of the run.**

    If you wonder outside the pocket and don't give yourself up, then you're a ball carrier just like any other. I don't understand how it's not this simple. I don't understand why a defender can't stop a player near a sideline just because they are a "Quarterback." I don't understand how you can't touch someone on the head 15 yards down the field just because he's the person who received the snap from center. These things don't make sense. Quarterbacks are given every opportunity in the rulebook to protect themselves; if they instead opt to juke everyone on the field and tiptoe down the sideline for as many yards as they can possibly manage, then a defender is going to try to stop you from doing that.


    *Roughing the Passer should be enforced the same as any other roughing penalty. I have no idea why any interception should be called back because the quarterback was hit after he threw the ball.)

    **When a QB slides, the ball should be marked where it was when he started the sliding motion. I think this might actually be the rule, but they seem to mark it where the ball ended up being when their butt finally hit the ground. This is obviously silly because if a defender can't touch you, then you shouldn't be allowed to advance the ball. The second you give yourself up, the play is over for BOTH SIDES.
  15. #90
    There's also the whole hitting anyone who's in the middle of the field thing that's ridiculous, but I think this is more of an enforcement issue than a rules issue. Refs just have to stop throwing a flag every time a receiver gets hit hard as he catches the ball. If he has the ball and he's not outstretched, then he's not defenseless, and if he doesn't get hit in the helmet by another helmet, then there's no helmet-to-helmet. There is no and should be no rule against hitting someone "hard" or hitting someone within a few seconds of them controlling the football.

    Also facemask enforcement took almost zero time to get ridiculous. The rule change a few years ago was that it is no longer illegal to make incidental contact with the facemask, and so there were no longer be a 5-yarder facemask. The rule change wasn't, "Hey, let's just make all instances of touching the facemask 15 yards." Of course, everyone knew that this is what was going to happen, but some people seem to forget that this is something to be upset about.

    And don't even get me started on the rules regarding automatic first downs and calling back plays and all that.

    Basically, few things make me as needlessly angry as NFL officiating. It's not the officials' faults (most the time); the NFL rulebook just really doesn't strive too hard for logical sensibility. (Perfect example: kicking teams getting a first down on running into/roughing the kicker makes no sense since BY NECESSITY an infraction can't occur until the kicking team has already turned over possession of the football).
  16. #91
    Lions/Broncos SuperBowl, book it.
  17. #92
    Wow, your Super Bowl prediction is the best team in the league versus your favorite team? How unconventional of you.
  18. #93
    Is the probability of it happening >0%? The Lions have an incredible knack for defying all probability so probably not BUT ITS A MAYBE AND THAT'S ALL A LION FAN NEEDS.
  19. #94
    And no one has ever claimed I was one for originality, but at least I'm consistent! =D
  20. #95
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    WHY FOOTBALL GODS WHY?!?!?!?!
  21. #96
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    WHAT THE FUCK REFS
  22. #97
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    NFL CONFIRMED FIXED
  23. #98
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    WHAT THE FUCK DSGHKLAGADSHKL:GDASHDGASL:LHJGDASHGDASKH:GASDL
  24. #99
    a500lbgorilla's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    28,133
    Location
    himself fucker.
    I'm just amazed that a man who cut his teeth on breaking all of the rules wasn't aware of this new one.
    <a href=http://i.imgur.com/kWiMIMW.png target=_blank>http://i.imgur.com/kWiMIMW.png</a>
  25. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by bikes View Post
    NFL CONFIRMED FIXED
    To be fair, the Jets had 6 points taken off the board for illegally caressing the underbelly of a Pats D-Back.
  26. #101
    Jack Sawyer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Posts
    7,650
    Location
    Jack-high straight flush motherfucker
    That Cushing injury is a prime reason why IDGAF about the NFL anymore. Also the Jermicheal Finley hit. How are those hits taught/legal/allowed/encouraged?
    My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...


    Cogito ergo sum

    VHS is like a book? and a book is like a stack of kindles.
    Hey, I'm in a movie!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYdwe3ArFWA
  27. #102
    The Cushing thing was very very very not legal. Those sorts of injuries do happen to lineman a lot because there are 9+ 300lb people being thrown all over the place, and one often goes careening into the side of your leg, but 99% of the time it's just a freak accident sort of thing. In fact, it's usually a teammate.

    But that play was kinda just like, "Fuck your ACL!"

    The Jermichael Finley thing is also not legal (the player got fined), and I can't blame the refs for missing it live. Honestly, if you watch the play without having the thought, "Okay, this is the play that makes Jermichael Finley drunk on concussion juice," then you don't really even notice what happened. (Full disclosure: I'm terribly terribly biased because I think a bad non-call >>>>>>>> a bad call.)
  28. #103
    Lukie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    10,781
    Location
    Never read any stickies or announcements
    Quote Originally Posted by bode View Post
    gotta love the browns. giving us a solid RB for the next ~5 years next to Luck. Its Peyton/Edge all over again!
    It turns out giving up a first round pick for a below-replacement level running back isn't such a good trade.
  29. #104
    Quote Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
    The Cushing thing was very very very not legal.
    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...arnwell-week-7
    Let's talk about that cut block, since I saw chatter during and after the game that it was a dirty play. That's not the case. Charles's cut block was totally legal and a regular part of the repertoire of any running back who has to stand up in pass protection against bigger, stronger defensive players. Part of being a defensive player is knowing that and protecting yourself against cut blocks; it's hard to tell whether Cushing didn't see Charles's block until it was too late and/or whether Cushing's foot got caught in the turf at the time of the block, but in either case, he wasn't able to adequately protect himself from the hit and, unfortunately, suffered a serious injury. It's worth noting that Cushing, after the game, sent Charles a tweet expressing no ill will with regard to Charles's block.
    Last edited by drmcboy; 10-21-2013 at 04:08 PM.
  30. #105
    Lukie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    10,781
    Location
    Never read any stickies or announcements
    Yeah I didn't think there was anything really wrong with that block. It's very common technique for backs in pass protection.

    Also I didn't see the hit live, but based on this gif: http://fansided.com/2013/10/20/jermi...-hit-head-gif/ , I don't really see what is wrong with the hit on Finley either. Gipson is leading with his shoulder at about waist level and Finley ducks into the hit! What is Gipson supposed to do there?
  31. #106
    Well, apparently Brian Cushing has suffered nasty knee injuries from low blocks in consecutive years and I was looking at the wrong one. This is the one I was talking about, which is a clear clip.

    This one is just a plain-and-simple cut block. Obviously nothing at all wrong with that one. There are like 2+ of those every time there's a slant, haha.

    My bad on the confusion.
  32. #107
    bode's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    8,050
    Location
    slow motion
    Quote Originally Posted by Lukie View Post
    It turns out giving up a first round pick for a below-replacement level running back isn't such a good trade.
    yeah, he has looked terrible so far. it speaks volumes when Donald Brown is getting an equal/greater load.
    eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
  33. #108
    it seems likely we will see zero RBs go in round one outside of an AP type freak so it was always a super weird trade for indy to me. I am a bengals fan and I was sad when I saw it b/c maybe the new browns are getting smarter. Still doesn't beat the carson palmer trade!

    I understand people reacted badly because it seemed like the browns were giving up, but giving up is the right idea, and really what you're talking about is giving up is best case a division title followed by a sad first round exit** and higher draft slot. And there was basically no evidence they even gave up that except TR was a high pick to start with, so he ... must be good?

    **trust me, not fun/worth the experience
  34. #109
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post
    it seems likely we will see zero RBs go in round one outside of an AP type freak so it was always a super weird trade for indy to me.
    I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but two things:

    - Indy's pick is prolly gonna be ~mid-twenties. A first round pick in the twenties is more comparable to an early 2nd round pick than it is to an early 1st round pick. You're smarter than I am, so I don't mean to insult your intelligence with that, but the entire football culture seems to treat all 1st round picks as though it's some sort of hallowed territory that is completely different from every other pick in the draft, when really a 25th pick isn't that different from a 33rd pick.

    Anyway, I agree that RBs are being seen less-and-less as a position you go balls out to acquire, but if you can get the best player at that position toward the end of the first round, I think a lot of teams will take that.

    - There's a difference between taking a player in the draft and getting a proven commodity. Granted, Trent Richardson didn't light the world on fire in his rookie year, but when you get him, you know you're not getting the next Ronnie Brown/Cedric Benson/Felix Jones/etc. His floor is a mediocre starting running back.

    All that being said, as an MLB fan and someone who spends too much of July on MLBTradeRumors, I agree that I don't really get all the outrage about this deal. Richardson does very little to increase the Brown's chances of making it to the Super Bowl, whereas an extra 1st round pick can get some pieces to build around (or can be bundled to get the one really important piece they need: a QB).
  35. #110
    swiggidy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Posts
    7,880
    Location
    Waiting in the shadows ...
    Quote Originally Posted by Lukie View Post
    Also I didn't see the hit live, but based on this gif: http://fansided.com/2013/10/20/jermi...-hit-head-gif/ , I don't really see what is wrong with the hit on Finley either. Gipson is leading with his shoulder at about waist level and Finley ducks into the hit! What is Gipson supposed to do there?
    This (I was watching the game live, not sure if that counts, apparently I hate life or something). Finley lowering his head was the problem, not the hit.
    (\__/)
    (='.'=)
    (")_(")
  36. #111
    Lol I was looking at the wrong gif for both plays. I'm just ... I'm sorry for my existence. In my defense, people need to stop sustaining the same injury twice in a few weeks and having gifs made of both of them.

    Anyway, I couldn't possibly agree more with previous assessment in this thread. Jermichael Finley helmet-to-helmeted Gipson far more than the other way around, but alas, Finley has the football so he can do whatever the fuck he wants apparently.
  37. #112
    Yeah if there are never going to make lowering your head illegal, it's going to be impossible to play defense pretty soon.

    Also, it is way past time to review personal foul calls. If they are worried about games taking longer, they can stop the Score - commercial - kick off - commercial - action. I bet you end up with just as much time to run adds during the reviews.
  38. #113
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post
    Yeah if there are never going to make lowering your head illegal, it's going to be impossible to play defense pretty soon.

    Also, it is way past time to review personal foul calls. If they are worried about games taking longer, they can stop the Score - commercial - kick off - commercial - action. I bet you end up with just as much time to run adds during the reviews.
    Yeah, I especially don't understand how Helmet-to-Helmet is a judgment call. Their helmet hit the other helmet or it did not; doesn't get much more objective than that.

    I think they could also review Defenseless Receiver calls, at the very least, to pick up flags on any play where the receiver was touching the ball at the time they were hit, since this too is objective. The Defenseless Receiver call toward the end of the Pats/Saints game comes to mind as a time where it was like, "There's no way that's illegal. He was tackling the guy who had the football."
  39. #114
    As a former D. Bowe owner, watching Alex Smith play football still makes me very angry. 95% of the offense is 2 yard checkdowns and screens to RBs. So boring. How are defenses not forcing him to actually make a throw downfield? As good as that defense is I don't see them going anywhere in the playoffs
  40. #115
    Jacksonville has scored a touchdown!
  41. #116
    Tomy Romo blows it at the end of the game again...oh wait.
  42. #117
    What the hell is this crap? The Seahawks have 38 yards and have the lead?
  43. #118
    That game was pathetic. I have no idea how we won. Our O-line looked like a bunch of amateurs.
  44. #119
    that cowboys lions game was crazy

    poor jerry jones
  45. #120
    LOL Florida teams.

    Tampa Bay is 0-7.
    Jacksonville is 0-8.
    Miami is 4-4, but has Pouncey involved in gun running with Aaron Hernandez and teammates bullying their tackle enough to make him leave the team.

    wtf is in the water down there?
  46. #121
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    Dear almighty football gods Brady Belichick and Gronk.

    Pls to deliver the victory against team rape.

    amens.
  47. #122
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    GRONK
  48. #123
    a500lbgorilla's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    28,133
    Location
    himself fucker.
    I can't wait for the cheating scandal that'll have the Pats vacating these wins.

    PS firm defense

    PSS oh roflsberger
    Last edited by a500lbgorilla; 11-03-2013 at 04:54 PM.
    <a href=http://i.imgur.com/kWiMIMW.png target=_blank>http://i.imgur.com/kWiMIMW.png</a>
  49. #124
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    GRONK
  50. #125
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
  51. #126
    bode's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    8,050
    Location
    slow motion
    colts!

    t.rich trade looking worse week-by-week. At least it will only be a mid 20's pick at best.
    eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
  52. #127
    gg rodgers
  53. #128
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    TOM FUCKING BRADY
  54. #129
    Lukie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    10,781
    Location
    Never read any stickies or announcements
    browns got outscored 31-0 in the 2nd quarter a couple days ago and iirc the bengals only had 3 first downs in that entire half.
  55. #130
    Quote Originally Posted by Lukie View Post
    browns got outscored 31-0 in the 2nd quarter a couple days ago and iirc the bengals only had 3 first downs in that entire half.
    this is correct. I have no idea how to feel about that game. I feel like the Browns are in better long term shape, that D is awesome + a 'gambling' coach that might understand math. Cincy stuck with the Red Noodle for the next 10 years. I keep telling myself Joe Flacco not only won a super bowl but actually looked good doing it so there is hope for terrible QBs...?
  56. #131
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house


    my feelings exactly.
  57. #132
    a500lbgorilla's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Posts
    28,133
    Location
    himself fucker.
    lol bikes, remember when the NFL bent over backwards to redefine fumbles for T?

    These things even out over the long haul. My team won a superbowl thanks to the refs; yours did too. Why can't you be cool like me?
    <a href=http://i.imgur.com/kWiMIMW.png target=_blank>http://i.imgur.com/kWiMIMW.png</a>
  58. #133
    Lukie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    10,781
    Location
    Never read any stickies or announcements
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy View Post
    this is correct. I have no idea how to feel about that game. I feel like the Browns are in better long term shape, that D is awesome + a 'gambling' coach that might understand math. Cincy stuck with the Red Noodle for the next 10 years. I keep telling myself Joe Flacco not only won a super bowl but actually looked good doing it so there is hope for terrible QBs...?
    I think the Bengals are super talented but injuries have really hit hard (Atkins especially), Andy Dalton won't get to/win a Super Bowl as a starting QB barring a miracle, and Mike Brown is so cheap that eventually a lot of that talent is going to walk in free agency.

    Clearly the best/most complete team in the AFCN right now but as the team is currently constructed, I can't see them winning playoff games in Denver and New England.

    As far as the Browns go, Chip Kelly was the coach I wanted all along but I have been really impressed with Chud and his aggressiveness. Needless to say, coaches have long been far too conservative on 4th downs and other game management decisions, but especially 4th downs and specifically 4th and short. He's also a good coach and a good leader in general but the Browns offensive talent just isn't there yet.
  59. #134
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    I HAVE KEPT THE FAITH.

    TOM FUCKING BRADY
  60. #135
    Lukie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    10,781
    Location
    Never read any stickies or announcements
    The four most painful words in the history of sports: "Here comes Brandon Weeden."
  61. #136
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    refs trying their damnedest to keep you in this one lee
  62. #137
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    ofc i am ignoring the fact pats dont have a single flag against them
  63. #138
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house
    gostkowski might be the best kicker in the nfl. GOAT in the 4th quarter
  64. #139
    Lukie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    10,781
    Location
    Never read any stickies or announcements
    Jags beat Browns in Cleveland. Not sure whether to be upset or relieved. Leaning towards the latter.

    It might be too little, too late with 4 wins already this season but if the Browns would have just lost a couple games in recent years that I wanted them to lose, Cam Newton or Andrew Luck would be the QB at the Factory of Sadness.
  65. #140
    Quote Originally Posted by Hawk View Post
    Go Hawks! You guys can all just give up now and get ready for next year. This season is ours.
    Go Hawks!
  66. #141
    Lukie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    10,781
    Location
    Never read any stickies or announcements
    Seahawks were super impressive last night. One thing that jumped out on just about every play is how damn fast the team is. Let's start calling them the Speedhawks.
  67. #142
    Lukie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    10,781
    Location
    Never read any stickies or announcements
    http://thebiglead.com/2013/09/22/hom...qb-since-1999/

    Add Jason Campbell to that list. Maybe Alex tanney or Caleb Hanie soon.
  68. #143
    bikes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    7,443
    Location
    house



    muhahaha =(
  69. #144
    rogged nfl, i could taste the 2 seed.

    I'm relieved as clearly the Browns will sign Jason C to a long term deal and avoid being good for 3 more years, emotionally scarring josh gordon
  70. #145
    Quote Originally Posted by bikes View Post

    muhahaha =(
    Well, you're not gonna find much better proof than that that it all evens out in the end. Except for the Browns ... it never evens out for the Browns.
  71. #146
    Lukie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    10,781
    Location
    Never read any stickies or announcements
    Quote Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
    Well, you're not gonna find much better proof than that that it all evens out in the end. Except for the Browns ... it never evens out for the Browns.
    confirmed.

    Though you could start building a case with a coach who understands 4th downs/2pt conversions, TRich trade, Gordon, lots of stuff really. Just not actually winning games on the field.
  72. #147
    Good time to be an Eagles fan. Would have taken 7-9 this year, so this is all kinds of awesome. LOL@ NFC East rivals' woes as well.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  73. #148
    Quote Originally Posted by Lukie View Post
    ... a coach who understands 4th downs/2pt conversions ...
    If it makes you feel any better, those don't exist. Every team should have a Game Manager--like a love baby of Joe Maddon and Nate Silver type mind--on their sidelines. I've long since realized that the pace of the NFL doesn't allow for this person to give input on every single play, but teams could at least get the big things right.
  74. #149
    Lukie's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    10,781
    Location
    Never read any stickies or announcements
    Quote Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
    If it makes you feel any better, those don't exist. Every team should have a Game Manager--like a love baby of Joe Maddon and Nate Silver type mind--on their sidelines. I've long since realized that the pace of the NFL doesn't allow for this person to give input on every single play, but teams could at least get the big things right.
    There are coaches like that that do exist, but based on the play on the field, none of them are currently head coaches in the NFL.

    If an NFL coach made game theory perfect decisions every time, 99% of football fans would think he is crazy. Coaches have been so overly conservative for so long that it is just kind of ingrained into football culture, and that's not even getting into adjusting for improving offenses and passing games, which increase the value of a possession and increase the chance of a conversion.

    I do think Chud is the best in the NFL in these spots or at least one of the best. You could make a strong case that he at least gets the big things right. You could also make a case that maybe going for it every single time that you are supposed to go for it, based on the math, might not be the best play either (for example, the other team might adjust and start taking at least the low hanging fruit themselves.)
  75. #150
    Quote Originally Posted by Lukie View Post
    If an NFL coach made game theory perfect decisions every time, 99% of football fans would think he is crazy. Coaches have been so overly conservative for so long that it is just kind of ingrained into football culture ... .
    Right, this exactly. Coaches are much less concerned with making the right decision than they are with making a decision that "can't" be criticized.

    One of the most obviously dumb things coaches do (that the NFL culture embraces unquestioningly) illustrates this perfectly. When a team is down by 15 in the 4th quarter, it is standard to save the 2-point conversion attempt for the second touchdown. This placates (dumb) fans and (dumb) media because it has the logic of "keeping the team in the game the longest." People get to watch more of the game feeling like the team is in it, which makes it *seem* like it gives the team a better chance to win.

    But anyone who's capable of thinking with even the slightest eye to game theory sees that there's no advantage whatsoever to saving the 2-point attempt (other than making people feel nice and cozy), yet there are obvious advantages to finding out as early as possible whether you would or would not convert. It's an obvious case of gaining free information (it's free because you're going to have to go for it anyway, so why not now), and information is valuable. If you miss the 2-point attempt on the last play of the game, then you just managed the entire quarter in such a way that you just get one more score, only to find out that's not enough. If you miss it after the first touchdown, then you have a world of information to work with: you are more likely to do an onside kick knowing you need two more scores, you'll playcall in a way that leaves time AFTER your first score, if you get stuck in a 4th and long in your opponent's territory, you can kick a fieldgoal knowing that it's gonna take two scores anyway so no sense in selling out for a touchdown on this drive.

    In other words, the big difference comes when you miss the 2-point conversion. It feels nicer to miss the 2nd one because you've gone so long going under the FALSE security that you could only be 1 score behind; when you miss the first one, you can operate under the KNOWN urgency that you're actually 2 scores behind. The latter feels shittier, and thus puts the coach under more heat, even though it clearly gives you a better chance to win.

    Another, not quite as obvious but still pretty bad coaching decision illuminates this point too. Coaches don't go for enough 4th downs. It's rare that punting on 4th down will get the coach grilled, so they just do it until they absolutely HAVE to go for it. It shouldn't operate in terms of have to or don't have to; it should be a slow gradient toward more aggression in more situations as your likelihood to win using traditional methods whittle away.

    Last night's game is a perfect example. Cowboys have 3rd and 4 at the Bears' 40 in the waning minutes of the 3rd quarter, down by 13 and yet to keep the Bears from scoring on a single drive (no punts, no turnovers, no turnover on downs; nothing but TDs and FGs). So the Cowboys throw deep on 3rd down and punt on 4th down. (Not to be results oriented, but the Cowboys got the ball back in the 4th quarter, now down by 21). Neither play is really gonna be criticized by the fans or the media, so sure, just do that because we all know game management in the NFL is 100% about not doing things that look bad and 0% about giving your team the best chance to win.

    Much better plan is to treat 3rd down like 2nd down and run or take a short dump off (if you get it, GREAT! If you don't you have 4th and short), and go for it on 4th. But doing anything except throw past the chains on 3rd down is terrible! Going for it on 4th down sometimes turns out ugly!!!! Oh noooooooo!!!!!

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •