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Hand Analysis:
Villain in this hand is 31/19/6.0AF with 5.3% 3bet. I'm not sure exactly when this hand occurred and how many hands I had on him at the time. From what I remember his VPIP was in the 30's (so in my mind he was clearly a fish given the high VPIP and non-full stack) and I think his AF was around 4.0.
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
Stacks:
UTG Yuras007 ($7.76)
UTG+1 Hero ($25)
CO LordSpaceball ($9.93)
BTN Kurya ($27.12)
SB buliga87 ($19.62)
BB Funnybearrr ($25)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1  
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, buliga87 calls $0.75, 1 fold
Raising KTs in MP may be a little bit marginal in general, but in this case its very good since there is a fish in the blinds that we want to play lots of pots with. Maybe I could have made the raise a bit smaller since there is a short stack to our immediate left.
Flop:    ($1.95, 2 players)
buliga87 checks, Hero bets $1.50, buliga87 raises to $3, Hero calls $1.50
The fish calls as expected and we see a somewhat dry flop. However, there are still lots of worse hands that can call us so I decide to make a value bet. I think that his range for seeing the flop is something like this:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 80.216% 79.03% 01.19% 231584 3480.00 { KsTs }
Hand 1: 19.784% 18.60% 01.19% 54496 3480.00 { QdQh, QdQs, JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, 54s, AQo-A8o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
So we're pretty far ahead of his range at this point (at first I forgot to put the flop cards into PS and I was pretty surprised because we only have 51% equity but eventually I figured it out lol  ). I'm going to call his flop checking range basically the same since I don't think he's going to donk lead with very many hands.
Normally I'm inclined to give flop check/raises a lot of respect at 25NL since they're usually the nuts. However, imo this case is different for three reasons:
1. This guy seems like an aggro donk rather than a passive donk so I think he can be bluffing here a lot of the time.
2. He makes his raise a min raise which looks very weak
3. He's not repping very many made hands at all given the board texture (basically just 33, 22, and MAYBE 32s if he even plays it) He also might c/r TP in spots like this, but that doesn't make very much sense because he can't really have AK while we can ourselves, and I don't think c/ring KQ or KJ would be his first option over c/c in this spot.
So, given these factors I like a call here. A raise doesn't accomplish a whole lot because if he's bluffing then we just get him to fold when we're already ahead and if he's value betting he'll probably shove and we have to fold.
Here's a rough range for his flop c/r:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.102% 62.10% 00.00% 25207 0.00 { KsTs }
Hand 1: 37.898% 37.90% 00.00% 15383 0.00 { 44-22, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad2d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, JTs, Jd9d, 98s, 87s, 54s }
I included 44, 98s, 87s as just random bluffs that don't make very much sense but that he decides to raise nonetheless. We're still doing pretty good equity wise vs this range.
Turn:  ($7.95, 2 players)
buliga87 checks, Hero checks
Obviously the 3 is a great card for us because it reduces even more the amount of value hands he can have. This is probably the part of the hand where I'm the most unsure of what to do. I could def see us being able to get value from draws by betting something like $3.50. But, he may just fold his weak draws and his air when these hands might be a river when we check behind, especially on blank rivers. I think betting and checking are both good here, I'm just not sure which one is best. I think his range remains nearly the same except I think we can also discount 222 a bit because he would probably lead the turn with it some % of the time.
River:  ($7.95, 2 players)
buliga87 bets $15.77, $15.77 to Hero ($21.15)?
Imo this bet on the river looks pretty FOS. For one, if he had a K here I think there's about a 0% chance he's making this bet. But we didn't think he had very many K's in his range at this point anyway. 888 is probably also not very likely as it doesn't make sense to c/r it on the flop and there aren't many combos of 88's (although this doesn't mean he can't have it). Also, if he had 222 he might play it like this but I think its equally likely (if not more likely) that he just makes a bet he thinks will get called a lot of the time (for example $6.00).
Given that I really don't see many value hands in his range and he can have all sorts of missed draws, I think this is a pretty easy call.
Any comments/thoughts are appreciated!
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WILDCARD B1@#e$
. I'll also mix in updates for how my poker is going and occasionally stuff that happens irl. So there you have it, the essence of my op thread.
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
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