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Vegas Research, Projections, An Online Rethink, And Using The ABI Approach
Well a few things have come up that made certain decisions happened and because of one of these decisions I may only have 6 months to live lol. First off, I've got a friend in the Tampa area and if she gets the apartment she's on the waiting list for she asked me if I wanted to come down there and crash with her for a few months before I leave for Vegas. Settle down boys she's just a friend lol. Yes I know with my history you blogspot readers might think otherwise, but she really is just a friend lol. Of course one of my other female friends, and yes 90% of my friends are female and yes I mean just friends afterall I've only slept with about a third of them lol, also told me there is no way a woman is going to invite you down to stay with her in her apartment for 3 months unless she has ulterior motives. Well the fact of the matter is I'm moving to Vegas in January so I'm not looking to get involved with anybody unless they already live in Vegas. Anyway I digress. Assuming that happens and I leave for Vegas out of Tampa if I go Amtrak which was my original plan, that train is going to go up to Washington DC first where I will have a nine hour layover. Not only that the ticket is $330 so total expenses for the trip would be $400 to $500. however, I can get there in a much faster time with maybe one layover in an airport somewhere by flying and the cost will be under $300. There's only one little problem I'm terrified of flying.
It happened some years ago. I had to take a plane from LAX in Los Angeles to Providence Rhode Island. As we crossed the Nevada mountains we ran into what they called turbulence and I called a near death experience. The plane shook so hard I thought the tail section was going to come flying off at any second and I swear I saw Tribbett popping out of the interior sheet metal. as I sat in my seat convinced life was about to end in moments, I said God you get me out of this and I stay on the ground. well he kept his end of the bargain that day and ever since I've kept my end up until now lol. However, I'm hoping the big man upstairs will understand because I'm sure he wouldn't want to have to spend an hour layover in DC either. with all that said, since I have decided to fly, obviously I only have 6 months left to live before I die lol.
The minimum bankroll I estimate on having starting out in Las Vegas will be $2000 and that is the lowest possible estimate. It could in fact be far more, but I will base my beginning plans on this. Doing research on Poker Atlas I pretty much know what my poker "work days" will look like. To start things out with my buyins will range from $40-$60 with a possible $65 mixed in. The name of the casino will be listed first then the buyin followed by the starting chip stack. All of these are 20 minute blind levels. As you see being in Vegas will allow me choices even starting out low.
9am
Ballys / $55 / $5k / $500 Gtd
Harrahs / $50 / $5k / $500 Gtd
Monte Carlo / $50 / $4k
10am
Mandaley Bay / $40+$5 Staff Bonus / $4k+$1k
1030am
Luxor / $45 / $5k
11am
Treasure Island / $65 / $8k / $750 Gtd
2pm
Monte Carlo / $40 Rebuy / $20 rebuys for $4k 1st two levels when out of chips / $20 addon end of 2nd level / $4k
Treasure Island / $65 / $10k / $750 Gtd
3pm
Ballys / $55 / $5k
6pm
Monte Carlo / $60+$5 Staff Bonus / $5k+$5k
7pm
Treasure Island / $65 / $8k / $500 Gtd
8pm
Hard Rock / $35 Rebuy / $10 rebuy for $2k first 3 levels / $10 addon $2k
830pm
Luxor / $45 / $5k
10pm
Treasure Islasnd / $65 / $10k / $1k Gtd
11pm
Monte Carlo / $40 Rebuy / $20 rebuys for $4k 1st two levels when out of chips / $20 addon end of 2nd level / $4k
These choices will be increased even more if I decided I want to try the tournaments with the 15 minute blind levels. If I did that then I could probably double this list, but my style dictates the highest starting stack and the longest blind levels available is best for my earnings potential. With the options listed I see the day starting off at 9am $50 at Harrahs. It has a lower fee percentage than the Ballys tournament and a shorter late registration. If I bust out early get over to Mandaley Bay or the Luxor for the 10am or 1030am tournament. It should be noted I will not enter tournaments late nor will I reenter once I'm knocked out. That is simple personal preference. If I am knocked out, but not early enough for the Mandaley Bay or Luxor tournament then at that point of the day I would head over to the Flamingo or The Orleans and grind a little $2/$4 limit for a couple hours. The next likely choice would be the 2pm $65 treasure Island tournament at 2pm. My research from Poker Atlas has revealed that some of the fee percentages the casinos get borders on the insane, but Treasure Island is by far the lowest at 30%. If the $2/$4 game was extraordinarily profitable I would simply grab the 3pm $55 Ballys tournament,but the cash game would have to be slammin as that Ballys tournament has a 41% fee. The fee percentages are simply an acceptable part of it because when I am rolled enough for the $100 tournaments those fees will drop to 20% so in the meantime what I will do is search out the best options. Following the 2pm or3pm tournament if I had a couplehours to kill I would head back to The Flamingo or The Orleans and jump back in the $2/$4 game Following this the evening tournament would be a difficult choice. Obviously since they are basically the same price the choice between the 6pm Monte Carlo tournament and the 7pm Treasure Island tournament it would be Treasure Island with its lower fee percentage and higher starting chip stack, but that 8pm Hard Rock rebuy with the low amount of rebuys I could only imagine would be a fish tank, but all factors considered I'm thinking its going to be the 7pm Treasure Island tournament. I can only figure that one would last til after midnight assuming a deep run so if I made that run that would lock up the work day, but if I were knocked out prior to 11pm then I would play one more for the day. Depending when I got knocked out it would be either 830pm $45 Luxor tournament, the 10pm $65 Treasure Island, or the 11pm $40 Monte Carlo rebuy and following the conclusion of that head home for what I'm sure would be some much needed sleep and the next morning back to work again. Like I said, the weekends will be my time off to hit the lounges, the clubs, or a tourist babe with a room key. Welcome to Vegas Baby!!!
Some days 3 tournaments played some days 4.
3.5/day
75/month
$60 avg per buyin
25%-50% ROI
$1100-$2200 in earnings to start.
Days 15 and 16 were not really significant money wise with an overall net lloss of about $5 or $6. However, prior to day 17 I started thinking about my daily tournament choices and what I'm trying to accomplish. Obviously earning money and building up the Vegas bankroll to my $2000 goal, but also it's training myself to get used to long sessions and work days and to, while online is different from live, to a certain degree, get ready for full time tournaments in Vegas. Unless it's a special circumstance most of the tournaments I will play in Vegas will have less than 100 entrants and even the evening ones which I would imagine the most popular will have under 200 so it does not make sense for me to be grinding tournaments with player fields higher than 200 runners. The $2k and both the $1ks I play, and the nightly $500 Gtd have over 300+ enrants and some in excess of 500+. So I decided that I need to stick with tournament fields lower than 200 entrants beginning today. There is but two exceptions to this. The $2.20 NLH KO gets a touch over 200 on Saturday, but during the weekdays it's under 200 and also the 345pm $5.50 $2k Gtd which is a $5k Gtd on Saturday and $7500 Gtd on Sunday. No way I let that possibility pass by.
So I began day 17 with a different daily play schedule and a switch in bankroll management from a 2% 50 buyin minimum to a 100 ABI system. Currently my tournament ABI should be $3, but I am piushing that somewhat, playing two $5.50s andtwo $4.40s each day. That comes out to 9 tournaments a day, $28.60 in buy-ins and an ABI of $3.18. With a bankroll of $156 entering day 17 my ABI should be $1.56, but lets face it I wouldn't be playing much poker. Besides, when I woke up this morning I was exactly 7 days from making a $200 deposit and I'm willing to risk the $3.30 ABI for a week. If need be I can add another $300 deposit in August and wait til September to start saving $300 a month that I want in savings when I leave for Vegas. Twas a rough day, 2 for 9 in the money and as ($17) loss. Went nearly 4 hours in the $5k Gtd,but not good enough to finish in the money. Oh well it becomes a $7500 Gtd on Sundays so who knows.
Day 18 I added an additional $4.40 to the playlist. I am up til the early morning hours talking with a new "friend" anyway so might as well add a final$4.40 to the mix. $33 in totalbuyins and an ABI of $3.30.
805am $2.20 PLO SS
930am $5.50 $500 Gtd DS
950am $1.10 NLH
1050am $2.20 NLH KO
1220pm $4.40 Beginner DS
250pm $2.20 NLH
345pm $5.50 NLH $2k Gtd SS
350pm $1.10 NLH
620pm $4.40 NLH Beginner
850pm $4.40 NLH Beginner
After the $200 deposit is made on the 3rd there will be only two changes to that daily schedule. The 950am $1.10 NLH and 1050am $2.20 NLH KO will be replaced by two $7.70 tournaments. $45.10 in buy-ins each day and an ABI of $4.51. That's pretty close to the line,but should be just under it since I use an ABI of 100. As the bankroll grows I will add $11 tournaments slowly, 1 or 2 at a time.
Vegas Finances
Savings: $1200
Jan Dis Pay: $800
Bovada Bal: $1500
Vegas Move
Trans: $300
Move in: $800
Misc Exp: $400
So $500 left over from the $2k from savings and the January disability payment added to a goal of $1500 from the Bovada roll, that's my $300 initial investment plus $1200 in earnings. Even if I maintained just the $33 a day in buy-ins, 6 days a week, with a 25% ROI from day 18to the 27th of December I will achieve the goal of $1200 in earnings.
Finally a personal note. Have not been getting much sleep lately as I seem to be up into the very early hours of the morning talking to a new "friend" who I will call "Mandi" (not her real name) She seems pretty damn cool, lives in Vegas, has no problems with what I will be doing for a living, and seems to be able to get inside my head like no one I've ever met before. Gonna see where this goes. Called her last night to talk just a few minutes while I had one more cigarette before heading to sleep. Well, it must have been one hell of a cigarette I smoked because that so called few minute phone call lasted 2 hours and 23 minutes, Another 30 minutes of texting and I didn't get to sleep til 5am, and up at 730am for the 805am PLO. Guess who's gonna need alot of Mountain Dew today and a few caffeine pills. That's all for now. Time to hit day 18 and as always, I'll see you at the tables.
Current BR: $139.84
Overall Goal: $2000
Current Pace: $1161
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