Operation Winning is a Habit

Originally Posted by Robb

Starting tables, I only have a 70BB stack. I play small ball w/ 2x BTN raises standard, and this adjusts the post flop pot-to-stack ratios more optimally.

Personally I've always felt a little meh about SPR.

nh though Robb, I'll be watching this blog.

Originally Posted by Robb

Focus on the CO, who is 38/16/1.2. We can estimate his cold calling range by multiplying the gap between vpip and pfr by 2 = 2 * (38 - 16 ) = 44%. (When we look it up, it's 41%.)

Sorry if i'm being dense here Robb, but is that correct? His CC range is wider than his VPIP?

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

Sorry if i'm being dense here Robb, but is that correct? His CC range is wider than his VPIP?

That's what PT4 said. I'll see if I can find the hand again. Remember, it's cold cold % of times facing that opportunity, and the Merge nano 6max tables have been full of UTG min-raising idiots lately.

OK, found it: here's the rest of his dumbassery preflop:

• vpip = 37% (103/276)
• call open = 41% (44/108)
• limp = 16% (26/164)
• pfr = 15% (42/276)
• raise 1st = 23% (31/136)
• 3bet = 6% (6/108)
• Fold to 3bet = 0% (0/4)
• Fold to 4bet = 0% (0/2)

Especially those last two lines show this guy doesn't know where the fold button is, at least not preflop.

Villain 1 (CO): PFR is 31/18/1.8 over 500 HH's with 44% steal. His flop cbet = 61. Let's see if we can get his range by the river. I'm not bothering with position stats - let's go with a range of 25% pfr (+ some junk) in the CO for him.

Merge - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $4.00
UTG: $5.23
CO: $4.00
Hero (BTN): $2.44
SB: $3.73

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has J 3

fold, CO raises to $0.14, fold, SB calls $0.12, fold

Flop: ($0.32, 2 players) 4 4 T
SB checks, CO bets $0.24, SB calls $0.24

Turn: ($0.80, 2 players) 3
SB checks, CO bets $0.60, SB calls $0.60

River: ($2.00, 2 players) 9
SB checks, CO bets $3.02 and is all-in, SB calls $2.75 and is all-in

Robb's Ranges

Spoiler: Show

Preflop

• Premium, Broadways Jx, Broadways Tx, all pp's, Axs/sc's (5 chunks, ~ 25%)
• We'll include some "junk" just to realize he could have a few other combos, especially Ax hands, depending on what he likes to add into his pfr range in LP.

Flop
Superdry, and he's not a cbet monkey. Hmm...let's keep

• All Premiums
• Half Broadway Jx (he doesn't cbet just any 2 overs)
• All Broadway Tx as most of them just hit
• Half pp's: 44 (obv), and 88+
• Axs, sc's: A4, T9s, T8s (I'm adding A4 from the "junk" portion - it's not unlikely)

Turn
Another blank, though a couple of draws became active. Only when the range gets narrow do I think in actual combos:

• Premiums: AA, KK, QQ (18 combos)
• Broadway Jx: AT only (12 combos)
• Broadway Tx: KT, QT, JT (48 combos)
• pp's: 44, 88 - JJ (22 combos) - - we excluded 33 already, don't think he double barrels w/ low pp's < 88)
• Axs, sc's: A4, T9s, T8s (14 combos)

River
Interesting card. How many of these combos can REALLY three barrel? And with decent sized bets on each street? Here's what's left:

• pp's: 44, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA
• Tx: AT, KT, QT, JT, T9s, T8s
• A4

He obv 3 barrels with 44, 99, TT, KK, AA, A4. But bet-sizing is interesting and seems to rule out TT, AA, KK. He probably barrels with KT, QQ, JJ and Txs (but these are less likely). I don't think he fires two barrels with T8s, so I'd be surprise to see him show that down.

Robb's Best Guess (in order of likelihood): QQ, AT, 99, 44, JJ, TT, AA, KK, A4, and some Tx hands. I think he's got QQ, JJ, AT or a set.

Villain 2 (SB): Taking a look at the other villain, who is 47/9/1.0 over 58 hands with no 3bets. He calls 50% (15 of 30 chances).

Spoiler: Show

Flop
This one's interesting. He's obv loose passive, but these guys usually need SOME kind of hand, some gutshot draw or bottom pair to continue with. And this board's dry as a bone. Here's my range for him:

• all pp's 22+, 4x and Tx
• let's put in some junk like Axs he's floating on a prayer.

Really, what else can he have?

Turn
Ah, some draws appear.

• all pp's 33+, 4x and Tx
• AdXd
• I don't see any 3x left in his range other than 33, but you hate to completely rule it out

River

• pp's: JJ, QQ (I'm discounting AA/KK, as I think they would have gotten raised preflop or flop. I'm getting rid of all sets completely, as I think they get raised on the river).
• 4x: A4, K4s discounted heavily (no river bet seems odd w/ trips)
• Tx: These are fine, I think he continues w/ Tx where x > 7 and probably wouldn't raise the river even with AT.

Robb's Best Guess (SB): KT, QT, JT, JJ, QQ plus other Tx, 4x and sets heavily discounted, other pp's remotely possible.

Here's the results. Ho. Lee. Crap. I was so wrong it's hilarious! If you haven't looked, yet, see if you can put either villain on a hand.

Spoiler: Show

CO shows A 7 (One Pair, Fours) (Pre 49%, Flop 39%, Turn 27%)
SB shows 2 2 (Two Pair, Fours and Twos) (Pre 51%, Flop 61%, Turn 73%)
CO wins $0.00
SB wins $7.13

End of the day, I'm glad I worked hard on this and thought it through. It's amazing how awful these players are, and realizing the crazy combos that they can be playing helps a ton. Helps explain some of the "nut" lines I've had to fold my TPTK hands against, as well.

Originally Posted by Robb

now I'm on loose, action-filled tables which are absolutely PERFECT for a TAGG approach, and I'm not playing TAGG-std poker. I'm ldo if you want to play laggy, table select to find nits, TAGG wannabes and weak-tighties. If you're table selecting laggy, why not open a small strong range of hands and camp on the nuts? Only open up when (if?) you stop getting action.

So I've learned some things this week:

• Play the game you've table-selected for, dumbass!
• Reversing, I can table-select for the game I want to practice.
• I'm very much aiming at mid 20's vpip, not 28+
• I need to work on calling ranges.
• I am still (relative to my opponent's) very good HU, and need to focus on that rather than "volume" during sessions, especially where I'm running bad. Go with what works.

smart

Originally Posted by Robb

Frustrating that FTR has devolved

i'd like to say blame black friday, but who knows. There's been some weird stuff since ages, i thought that even before i was banned...

Originally Posted by Robb

but when you ask for help on preflop flatting ranges, the thread goes silent. We used to have experienced players who would explain their reasoning.

still a few people posting good stuff as well though, which i am hugely grateful for - d0zer/m2m/yaawn/fnord all spring immediately to mind

Originally Posted by Robb

Certain players I respect are disrespected these days on FTR. I can mention half a dozen, but I'll just mention Spoon. WTF? He was an ass, but he always willing to explain his reasoning and help others.

spoon backed up tough love with devoting a whole tonne of time to helping people and developing ftr resources. The hate seems absolutely stupid. Group dynamics are funny things.

Originally Posted by Robb

I went elsewhere and worked a ton on my own, especially about flatting ip and from the blinds. I will report some of what find over the coming days. Also, this "equity" idea is often bullshit. Just because you have equity doesn't necessarily mean you have playable hand.

probably the best thing you can do to get better at poker. I never do enough of it, even though i know it...

Originally Posted by Robb

I've decided I'm going to take what I know and what I feel I do best, and experiment like crazy and do the maths and work on ranges and villain profiles and get my HUD in order, and I'm going to put together a game of Robb-poker, combo by combo (Shania?), position by position, merged range by polarized range. I'm going to do it at the nano's and improve it by tweaking it as I move up.

I don't give a flying furry what people think. I've been inhibited about what to post and how to play for too damn long. It doesn't matter if anyone on FTR or in the BC is impressed with me, it just matters if I win and know why the hell it's happening, so I can fix the problem(s) when I'm losing. I want a flexible game that can open up or tighten up when needed, and understand how to use all aspects of game play to win more: aggression, passivity, table selection, villain profiling, table starting, not tilting, br management - the whole deal.

gold

Originally Posted by !Luck

Get a base of 13/11 or whatever the current style is. Then add one concept at time and only 1. Master it. Then move on.

for all that i agree with what Robb wrote above, this is also very good advice for some people and in some situations

Interesting spot:

Merge - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $8.70
Hero (SB): $2.76
BB: $4.64
UTG: $4.34
MP: $4.00
CO: $6.91

Hero posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.04

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.06) Hero has A 9

fold, fold, CO raises to $0.10, fold, Hero raises to $0.28, fold, CO calls $0.18

Flop: ($0.60, 2 players) 7 K A
Hero bets ???, fold

What's the best value line here, against TAGG's? Against loose passives?

I'm pretty sure I played it wrong, so would be happy to hear your thoughts. We don't want the flush to hit the turn as it will stop the action in its tracks. Not sure what the best flop bet is. Sizing?

i don't see that mixing 70bb and 100bb play is helping you play better poker. Maybe i'm wrong, maybe not. Are you varying your choices by stack depth?

Pre you can do most things. Don't bet flop if you have less than 100 hands of history - cos you're still aiming to make money whenever you sit.

Originally Posted by Robb

Ho. Lee. Crap.

Heh. I think i've met his brother Ho Lee Fuk. Also plays nanos.

Quick question about The Sheet (TM):-

Originally Posted by Robb

Each area is ~5% of all poker starting combos, and they are arranged (roughly) on the page from top (stronger) to bottom (weaker) in terms of their playability in HU, imo.

Is there any significance in vertical arrangement beyond the statement above? e.g. the Axo group starts between 87s and 76s. Is this important, or are they just "lower"?

Cheers!

Not to sidetrack thread (again) but my whole beef with spoon was after I'd been around for a couple years then he just turned into the biggest prick in the universe (directed towards me). Not really sure why everyone else hates him, but I definitely have my own personal reasons. His teachings from pre-2009 are definitely gold.

Anyone else making custom stats in PT4? Took me a couple of attempts, as it's a bit of a train yourself guess-check-revise process with no hints, just compile or fail. Still, I'm getting there.

I went back to the maths that helped me understand poker the best, the FTC theorem article. Couldn't find the original spreadsheet, so I rebuilt it. Which was good. I found a place to simplify the formulas greatly and retain the usefulness.

My idea is to develop my own FTC ratios for different lines, so I could configure a popup and see a ratio of "fold to continue" for when the opponent flatted pre then donked the flop. Do this for most common lines.

The biggest hurdle, besides my SQL ineptitude, is the number of HH's we need for the figures to become significant. Initial work with the "faced 3bet" FTC show that I need > 10 3bets to have occurred for the ratio to be helpful.

You can't make them fold.

need any help w/ the SQL?

Originally Posted by Robb

You can't make them fold.

sure you can, just gotta try harder! (try harder = go full retard)

$0.10/$0.25 Ante $0.05 No Limit Holdem
8 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($85.31)
UTG+1 ($29.30)
daven (MP1) ($67.07)
MP2 ($25)
CO ($23.85)
BTN ($67.05)
SB ($30.47)
BB ($25)

Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 8 players) daven is MP1
2 folds, daven raises to $1.10, 2 folds, BTN raises to $3.85, 2 folds, daven raises to $7.40, BTN calls $3.55

Flop: ($15.55, 2 players)
daven checks, BTN bets $8.40, daven goes all-in $59.62, BTN folds

Final Pot: $32.35

daven wins $82.11 (net +$15.04)

BTN lost $15.85


$0.10/$0.25 Ante $0.05 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($88.46)
UTG+1 ($62.50)
MP1 ($72.18)
MP2 ($40.90)
MP3 ($32.99)
daven (CO) ($30.58)
BTN ($25)
SB ($30.98)
BB ($64.94)

Pre-Flop: ($0.80, 9 players) daven is CO
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, daven calls $0.75, BTN raises to $3, 2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.25, daven calls $2.25

Flop: ($10.05, 3 players)
MP2 checks, daven checks, BTN bets $5.50, MP2 folds, daven goes all-in $27.53, BTN folds

Final Pot: $21.05

daven wins $42.13 (net +$11.55)

MP1 lost $0.30
MP2 lost $3.05
BTN lost $8.55

You never go FULL RETARD.

big difference in letting them call 200bb than 75 bb though

lol full retard...I tilted last night, lost 1.5 BI's, quit, took today off to watch the CL final and have margaritas with some friends, going rock climbing tomorrow. Will probably be down massively for the week, but I need some clarity and rest and rock climbing is probably best for that.

Robb, I sincerely wish you all the best and I hope you've used up all your runbad.

Have you tried rebooting your luckbox, maybe it crashed?

Originally Posted by Lucothefish

Robb, I sincerely wish you all the best and I hope you've used up all your runbad.

Have you tried rebooting your luckbox, maybe it crashed?

Thanks. Felt good in a session this morning, still ran a BI below EV. Got the money in good, didn't tilt. If I can keep doing that, I'll be fine.

Rock climbing was cool. It's a pretty grim hour-long hike in and then back out, plus climbing. Fitness isn't where I'd like, but not too bad.

Originally Posted by DoubleJ

need any help w/ the SQL?

Thanks, DJ, I think I'm doing pretty well. I have 4 batches of custom stats created for FTC scenarios, and I'm working on the maths.

Poker life is good. The time off helped. I had a lunchtime session, bringing today's total to ~800 hands, up 1/2 BI, 1.3 BI's below EV. Still getting the chips in good, and not tilting.

Originally Posted by Lucothefish

Have you tried rebooting your luckbox, maybe it crashed?

This made me lol - thanks, Luco!

Originally Posted by Keith

big difference in letting them call 200bb than 75 bb though

I went through all my reasons for 70BB buy-in, and I did not find them compelling. I'm now opening all tables, super-short or full, with 100 BB stacks and topping up when I fall below 95ish.

Originally Posted by Robb

Rock climbing was cool. It's a pretty grim hour-long hike in and then back out, plus climbing. Fitness isn't where I'd like, but not too bad.

cool! I'd imagine your fitness doesn't fit too poorly on the FTR continuum, even without prop bets to get the psyche on!

Down about 2 BI today. Variance hit on HU starting tables against a known TAGG, A9 < A6s, 55 < KK, AT < KJ, all 5bet shoves by me after he started 4betting light. Thrilled he'll call off his stack with A6 and KJ, but DAMN. Up and down rest of day, up about a BI in rest of action. No tilt, yet.

Luckbox relaunch on my mark, 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... initiate.

I played pretty good, down just a BI today, ran 4.5 BI behind EV.

Sorry this has turned into a bad beat bitch-fest. I just hope my stakers know I'm getting the chips in good. Hopefully, the variance will even out soon. I think I'm learning this game again, and feeling pretty confident about my reads tonight. Made several big river calls and was right on almost all of them. Bet for value in big pots after putting them on ranges.

I'm just in that stage where I cringe getting all the chips in ahead, just sure I'm going to see the river ping death.

Originally Posted by Robb

I played pretty good, down just a BI today, ran 4.5 BI behind EV.

This is impressive, well done.

Originally Posted by Robb

Luckbox relaunch on my mark, 3 ... 2 ... 1 ... initiate.

[ ] relaunch

Originally Posted by Robb

I'm just in that stage where I cringe getting all the chips in ahead, just sure I'm going to see the river ping death.

all-in -> minimise
i never see what happens once i've committed all of my chips. Boring huh? remember when i lost with quads vs a nasty river card? I didn't see it happen in real time... I've long since figured that it is at best neutral (and typically worse) to see their cards or watch the outcome. Obviously i review the hand a minute or so later for notes etc.

Originally Posted by daven

all-in -> minimise
i never see what happens once i've committed all of my chips. Boring huh? remember when i lost with quads vs a nasty river card? I didn't see it happen in real time... I've long since figured that it is at best neutral (and typically worse) to see their cards or watch the outcome. Obviously i review the hand a minute or so later for notes etc.

That's awesome - I wish I had that level of discipline. I only have 4 tables going on a 27" monitor, so I see all my tables all the time. I guess I could physically minimize it, though.

I'm pretty good at celebrating the "got it all-in good" or "yeah, my read was right." I don't tilt much over single bad beats, it's the garph that really screws up my head, when I keep dropping WAY below the yellow line.

Even last night, after several bad beats, I really felt like I was reading my opponents well. I 2-barreled with precision, made a few big river calls (that were right!), refused to bet hopeless flops against the stations, and generally kept out of trouble.

This is my last week of poker:


By robb_in_georgia at 2012-05-28

And on my laptop:



Running 11BI behind EV over 4.5k hands. Wow. Just wow. Admittedly, I would be about break-even, not winning, if I ran at EV. I cannot deny there's 2-3 BI's of spew in there, but I have done pretty well avoiding tilt - getting away from the tables when I'm tilting, taking a couple of days off twice this week, etc.

I've seen these huge downswings, sometimes 25 - 40 BI below EV over weeks and weeks, from FTR icons. I guess this is still just a medium-sized one. Sorry for the bad beat posts, just wanted to look at the last two weeks, since beginning of downswing.

Here's the hands from laptop, last two weeks:



Will edit in a moment with graph from desktop.



So...17 BI below EV over two weeks, or roughly $70 below expectation. I guess it's not unbelievable, but it's certainly the worst run I've ever had.

At least I'm positive EV for the run, despite some tilt-spew (not as much as I would have two years ago, but some).

more climbing and exercise, less losing flips.

you're running bad. That's always horrible. I usually take it as a good excuse to go run some simple filters across the last few hands, find another possible leak or two, work on it => when i start to run normal again my true winrate has somehow increased. But you already seem to do enough work on your game, although, hmmm. Have you tried the simple 'take 5 randomly selected hand histories from the set vpip=true, saw turn=true, now consider ALL options at each point in the hand. Not just bet vs check vs raise vs fold, but sizing as well. 1/2psb vs pot vs overbet' approach to poker study recently. It's gold.

I read what you wrote above re HU starting tables and villains starting to 4b light. One adjustment is obviously to widen your 5b shoving value range etc (and that's high variance and heaps of fun), but what about slowing down post-flop and crushing them with superior skill after some cards come?

Originally Posted by Robb

I went through all my reasons for 70BB buy-in, and I did not find them compelling. I'm now opening all tables, super-short or full, with 100 BB stacks and topping up when I fall below 95ish.

good, only reason for not buying in full is when the fish are less than full and there are regs that you find threatening that are full. Doesn't apply at 100bb unless you're already a good shortstacker.

Originally Posted by Robb

This is my last week of poker: Running 11BI behind EV over 4.5k hands. Wow. Just wow. Admittedly, I would be about break-even, not winning, if I ran at EV. I cannot deny there's 2-3 BI's of spew in there,

bold is really important - it's tiny sample, but still...

Robb, a part of me wants to see you fail since you have, at times, been very cocky as to how easy nanostakes were to beat. I don't think you're necessarily running bad (my opinion), I think your playing bad. If you want to beat 4NL, don't start your own tables and play heads-up (high-variance) crap. Just slow down, play very basic tagg poker, as has been suggested, and you'll start winning. It's just that simple (maybe). It's definitely a better approach than you've had so far.

On the other hand, you seem tight with Daven, so I'd dump your whole BR into lessons from him, if he's agreeable.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

If you want to beat 4NL, don't start your own tables and play heads-up (high-variance) crap.

Check.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

Just slow down, play very basic tagg poker, as has been suggested

Check.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

and you'll start winning.

Pending...

Hmmm....that was a drunken post! There may be some truth to it, idk. You've done it before (beat micro's) and you can do it again. Good luck!

hehe no worries

I quit opening tables after 4-5 BI's down, and tightened up to ~ 26/22. A few more BI's dropped and tightened up more, eased off on marginal 3bets/squeezes. Tried to flat less, cbet more carefully, not value town myself. Last 3k hands, I'm running more like 20/18/3.

I haven't posted a ton, but I have been in touch with Keith via pm. And I listen carefully every time Daven posts. I believe you and he are both right, him with a gentle reminder to "plug leaks," and you with the more direct version. The downswing isn't nearly as bad if you're playing well despite the bad beats, and I have to own up to the BI's dropped due to the bad decisions I've made at the tables.

So I think we agree. And I think we can agree that getting toasted every now and again is a positive life EV, as well.

All the best, PTW, good luck at the tables.

Sup Robb, I always used to check out your blog / posts when I used to play. Seems like you've always tried to explain the reasoning behind what you're doing which is probably my biggest weakness - so reading your stuff forces me to think about that sort of thing.

Anyway, I've started up again (2NL 6max) and will be keeping an eye out for your blog posts! GL.

I haven't played poker in about 10 days, first due to hectic life surrounding my wife's birthday when several families from out of town visited, then due to Merge's update and the subsequent PT updates needed to play with HUD.

My Summer Honors programs starts in a week (oh, lordy), and I have my summer class winding up along with a big consulting project due by Friday. Not sure I'll have time to play the rest of the month. Like to, though.

yo robb, i don't know near enough about your game to say what your leaks are. but you seem to be attaching too much of your attention to your winnings and EV lines and their disparities and etc. i know you are on a stake so you have to report results and etc, but there is seriously no point in looking at your EV. the all-in EV indicator shows the difference between your results and your expected results against the actual hand combination you got the money in against on that occasion. however, we all know that we play against ranges of hands and never against a single hand combination. thus, you can be running into the tops of peoples ranges (meaning your PT3 EV line will look shite) when really you are getting the money in in tremendously +EV situation (versus the range of hands your opponent can hold).

It's like the difference between the fundamental theorem of poker (what you should do if you KNEW your opponents exact two cards) and phil galfonds "G-bucks" theorem (which takes into account ranges).

anyway, you're a maths dude so i'm sure you understand the difference between the EV of getting all-in versus a single hand and getting all-in versus a range of hands. just thought it was worth pointing that out. all the best amigo

edit: here's a link i intended to post originally which basically renders all of the above obsolete. 'G Bucks' Conceptualizing Money Matters. by Phil Galfond | Bluff Magazine April-2007

Hey, folks, I'm back. I checked in with Keith about the staking agreement we had. I haven't played poker in 15 months, but I would like to. I will start posting again soon when I know the status of my stake.

Always feels like coming home when I visit FTR and start thinking about Pokerz.

Wow I was looking at some of the old graphs you posted. I agree that's some ugly runbad. What I would do is start from scratch right now and just start a whole new database rather than look at all those old losses which would definitely tilt me. Just a thought. That's how the variance works too anyway - no memory.

Good luck Robb!

Originally Posted by griffey24

Good luck Robb!

Thanks, Griff, I've always appreciated how much time you take in the BC with players who are learning. Hope you're doing well.

I've been halfway grinding lately, trying to nit it up at 6-max 2NL. I won't get into many specifics until I hear back from Keith and my others backers. I have an open stake, and we need to settle on how we want to handle it. I have sent results, current plans and br amounts to them and I'm looking forward to playing poker again. We'll see what happens.

I'm at the 2NL's for a while, probably a month or more. No point in investing more br until I relearn this game. Loving Black Chip's 2NL tables with 50+ table VPiP's.

I'm running good, not sure if it's playing good since I've been away so long. I had a bit of heater and was running 24/18, last three days I'm 21/17ish, very consciously not trying anything fancy. No hero calls, no 3-b/4-b light. Just wait til I (pre)flop good and value bet the shizzle.

I'm rusty as hell.

I'll be in the BC posting hands and trying to learn something. I've already trolled some threads and tried to figure some HH's out.

I'm doing some stoooopid shit at the tables. I know it. My win rate is solid, but I know should be doing a lot better. I suppose it's good that, along with having forgotten tons, I don't have my bad habits any more. I don't have good habits, either, but I'm learning.

Starting with the A in ABC TAGG-nit poker. Thankfully, it seems the regs at 2NL suck worse than me!

So, agreed with Keith and MClan_Superman that we're sticking with the staking agreement as originally defined in this thread: Robb Returns.

So I feel better about talking about volume, stakes and where I'm at.

I had about $27 remaining on Black Chip when I returned last week, had a family member who plays there transfer another $40. Less than $70 in br, so it's 2NL for me for a while where the rake is 10 BB/100 (jeez!). I'm winning, but not crushing.

I do suck at poker, but I'm relearning. Keeping it ABC simples. Got the HUD configured, some basic color ranges in there and wrote some AutoHotKey scripts that move tables around. I'm playing on my laptop, so I'm using Rage and Nakumura's idea for hot keys to move tables in and out of a main stack. I have betting hotkeys and, most importantly, a folding hot key.

I haven't decided when I'm moving up. I'm up about $7 (3.5 BI!!) this week. There isn't much traffic at the 5NL's, so I'm trying to decide what would be best. There are bankroll requirements in the stake thread I have to adhere to. I guess I better good at the 2NL's and start crushing, or figure out a way to get more bankroll online somehow.

I'll give updates here and in the staking thread as there's news.

Good luck at the tables.

The intriguing thing about poker is that it's complex. I like it because it always forces me to think.

The 2NL's, lolz, right? Still, with 10 BB/100 in rake, beating it's no joke. You gotta think and play solid pokerz.

I have forgotten pretty much everything, and I'm relearning SLOWLY. But it's fun. Enjoyed playing this weekend a good bit, and I'm about to post a question in the BC.

I increased my open-raises in all positions. Before, I was opening:

EP MP CO BTN SB
4BB 3BB 3BB 2BB 3BB

I was losing/struggling to break even, get into tons of multiway flops, having trouble even when I hit the flop. I changed to:

EP MP CO BTN SB
5BB 4BB 4BB 3BB 4BB

Of course, I immediately went on a heater, so the temptation is to think, aha! i've just solved 2NL pokerz! Too easy.

Just curious what others will think of this adjustment.

don't be afraid to overbet with your monsters at 2nl. Their biggest leak is calling too much , so let them call ,bigger bets and raises and don't worry they will call (so yeah preflop as well as that will isolate yourself against fish rather than multiway). I've been doing a mini challenge on stars for the last 4 or 5 days 10 tabling 2nl FR and my god its amazing what i can get away with. some examples

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP1: $5.59 (279.5 bb)
MP2: $2 (100 bb)
MP3: $0.77 (38.5 bb)
CO: $2 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $13.91 (695.5 bb)
SB: $5.11 (255.5 bb)
BB: $5.57 (278.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
MP1 calls $0.02, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, SB folds, BB calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.37) 7 Q 7 (3 players)
BB bets $0.18, MP1 calls $0.18, Hero raises to $1.08, BB folds,villain tanks and then types into chat 7d? and then MP1 calls $0.90

I fist pump as he just told me he probably had 7x and is dead in the water

Turn: ($2.71) 4 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $2, MP1 calls $2

River: ($6.71) A (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $6.48, MP1 calls $2.39 and is all-in

Results: $11.49 pot ($0.30 rake)
Final Board: 7 Q 7 4 A
MP1 showed 7 2 and lost (-$5.59 net)
Hero showed Q Q and won $11.19 ($5.60 net)




villain is 47/14 over 84 hands

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP2: $1.08 (54 bb)
MP3: $2 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $6.82 (341 bb)
BTN: $1 (50 bb)
SB: $4.99 (249.5 bb)
BB: $10.44 (522 bb)
MP1: $0.52 (26 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, BB raises to $0.24, Hero calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.49) 7 5 2 (2 players)
BB bets $0.26, Hero calls $0.26

Turn: ($1.01) J (2 players)
BB bets $0.90, Hero raises to $3.14, BB raises to $9.94 and is all-in, Hero calls $3.18 and is all-in

River: ($13.65) 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $13.65 pot ($0.30 rake)
Final Board: 7 5 2 J 7
Hero showed J J and won $13.35 ($6.53 net)
BB showed Q Q and won $0.00 (-$6.82 net)




same villain is now 67/33 50% 3bet over 18 6 handed hands.

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $5 (250 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.87 (543.5 bb)
MP: $3.96 (198 bb)
CO: $6.95 (347.5 bb)
BTN: $2 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 4
MP calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.07) 8 4 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.28, MP folds, CO calls $0.28

Turn: ($0.63) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.32, CO calls $1.32

River: ($3.27) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.40, CO calls $5.33 and is all-in

Results: $13.93 pot ($0.30 rake)
Final Board: 8 4 4 3 3
Hero showed 7 4 and won $13.63 ($6.68 net)
CO showed K 8 and lost (-$6.95 net)

had to lol .....getting 350bb in a limped preflop pot.

don't be afraid to overbet with your monsters at 2nl. Their biggest leak is calling too much , so let them call ,bigger bets and raises and don't worry they will call (so yeah preflop as well as that will isolate yourself against fish rather than multiway). I've been doing a mini challenge on stars for the last 4 or 5 days 10 tabling 2nl FR and my god its amazing what i can get away with. some examples

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP1: $5.59 (279.5 bb)
MP2: $2 (100 bb)
MP3: $0.77 (38.5 bb)
CO: $2 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $13.91 (695.5 bb)
SB: $5.11 (255.5 bb)
BB: $5.57 (278.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
MP1 calls $0.02, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.12, SB folds, BB calls $0.10, MP1 calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.37) 7 Q 7 (3 players)
BB bets $0.18, MP1 calls $0.18, Hero raises to $1.08, BB folds,villain tanks and then types into chat 7d? and then MP1 calls $0.90

I fist pump as he just told me he probably had 7x and is dead in the water

Turn: ($2.71) 4 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $2, MP1 calls $2

River: ($6.71) A (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $6.48, MP1 calls $2.39 and is all-in

Results: $11.49 pot ($0.30 rake)
Final Board: 7 Q 7 4 A
MP1 showed 7 2 and lost (-$5.59 net)
Hero showed Q Q and won $11.19 ($5.60 net)




villain is 47/14 over 84 hands

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

MP2: $1.08 (54 bb)
MP3: $2 (100 bb)
Hero (CO): $6.82 (341 bb)
BTN: $1 (50 bb)
SB: $4.99 (249.5 bb)
BB: $10.44 (522 bb)
MP1: $0.52 (26 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, 2 folds, BB raises to $0.24, Hero calls $0.16

Flop: ($0.49) 7 5 2 (2 players)
BB bets $0.26, Hero calls $0.26

Turn: ($1.01) J (2 players)
BB bets $0.90, Hero raises to $3.14, BB raises to $9.94 and is all-in, Hero calls $3.18 and is all-in

River: ($13.65) 7 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $13.65 pot ($0.30 rake)
Final Board: 7 5 2 J 7
Hero showed J J and won $13.35 ($6.53 net)
BB showed Q Q and won $0.00 (-$6.82 net)




same villain is now 67/33 50% 3bet over 18 6 handed hands.

Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $5 (250 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.87 (543.5 bb)
MP: $3.96 (198 bb)
CO: $6.95 (347.5 bb)
BTN: $2 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7 4
MP calls $0.02, CO calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.07) 8 4 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.28, MP folds, CO calls $0.28

Turn: ($0.63) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.32, CO calls $1.32

River: ($3.27) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $7.40, CO calls $5.33 and is all-in

Results: $13.93 pot ($0.30 rake)
Final Board: 8 4 4 3 3
Hero showed 7 4 and won $13.63 ($6.68 net)
CO showed K 8 and lost (-$6.95 net)

had to lol .....getting 350bb in a limped preflop pot.

Thanks, Keith, like the 350BB in a limped pot!

haha love the 74s hand, nice.

One of my biggest poker leaks, even when I won, was the inability to understand the dynamic value of my hand. In real time, at the table, tilting, it's hard for me.

AK is dog poop at times, dollars at others.

I think my difficulty is thinking, omg I'm stuck 3 BI's, oh good, here's KK, I'll make some of it back.

I've got to bet like I know hand strength is relative. I've been asking myself every time I commit $$ to the pot, "Is this a good way to make money?" Old Robb tried to find a way that a bet or call could be justified.

New Robb just folds that dog poop.

Welcome back Robb.

I too am feeling the itch to play again after god knows how long. I basically hid in the commune since shortly after ze Americans got ze boot from online poker, perhaps out of solidarity but quite surely out of tilt due to a myriad of stuff that went down at the same time.



Maybe I should reopen the bar?

Originally Posted by Jack Sawyer

Maybe I should reopen the bar?

First round for FTR is on me, if you do!!

I'm still worried about br safety in the US, so I'm happy at the micros. Dunno what I'll do if and when I get to NL25 and the amount of money in my online br starts to matter. I'm not putting anything online I wouldn't be able to lose.

Good luck man

Funny. Every two years since US pokerz died, I get the bug again. Probably something to do with Game Theory rotating through my teaching schedule every even-year Spring semester. So I'm dabbling at 2nl.

The games have changed. At 2nl there's 3betting light, 4betting light vs. resteals, lots of c/r flops. Fun stuff. I'm running 19/16 basic TAGG in 6max. Still plenty of passive play, but the hands all seem to go multiple streets. Seems like just playing premium hands and betting the shizzle of flops I hit works fine.

I seem to be at least breaking even and relearning the game. Happy that Spoon has started his online course at FTR. Using his methods to retrain myself for the new normal at nanostakes.

Cheers to anyone still reading this. I'm back for a bit!!

BB has ATS 3/3 times from SB and 3/4 times from BTN, has folded 4/5 vs. BTN steal attempts. He steals a lot himself, and the only time he didn't fold to BTN steal attempt was a 3bet. So one of two things is true. He understands stealing and re-stealing, or he's on a nice heater.


CO: 143 BB
Hero (BTN): 105.5 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 158 BB (VPIP: 36.11, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet: 9.09, Hands: 38)


SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3 A


CO calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, BB raises to 9 BB, fold, Hero calls 6 BB


Flop: (19.5 BB, 2 players) 3 T 9
BB bets 12.5 BB, Hero raises to 96.5 BB and is all-in...


Preflop: I'm making the assumption he 3bets light from BB:
77+ (8*6 = 48 combos)
A9+, Axs (6*16 + 7*4 = 124 combos)
KJ+, K9s+ (2*16 + 2*4 = 40 combos)
76s+ (6*4 = 24 combos)

This is 236 combos out of 1326, or 18%. This range seems to include calling hands, but it's impossible to say given the limited HH's. I don't think he's much wider. I've calculated preflop without including blockers, just to see what the overall percentage would be. Because of my hand, preflop becomes:

77+ (7*6 + 3 = 45 combos, 3 less)
A9+, Axs (6*12 + 6*3 +2 = 92 combos, 32 less)
KJ+, K9s+ (2*16 + 2*4 = 40 combos)
76s+ (6*4 = 24 combos)

This makes 201 combos he could possibly have.

Flop:
Flop AF = 5 and AFq = 83%. He donks:
77+ (48)
AT, A9, A3 (24)
KTs, K9s (6)
87s+ (16)

This makes 94 of 201 combos.

Sets (6)
2 Pair (9)
1 Pair (36)
OESD's (8)
Unimproved PP: QQ+, 99, 88, 77 (36)

This is 95 combos, so I've miscounted something. I'm behind all but the OESD's, but I have equity. The problem is playing the equity. Even in position, calling is going to be difficult.

A3s has only 23% equity against this range. Even if there's air in his range, Hero never has more than 30% equity.

Hero's stack is covered, so he's betting 96.5 BB and wins 19.5B whenever Villain folds. If VF is Villain's fold percentage, then Hero's expected value is:

E(Shove) = VF * 19.5 + (1-VF) * (.3 * 116 - .7 * 116)

= VF * 19.5 + (1-VF) * (-.4 * 116 )

= VF * 19.5 + (1-VF) * (-46.4 )

= VF * 19.5 - 46.4 + VF * 46.4

= VF * 65.9 - 46.4

If we set this = 0, we can find the break-even value for VF:

VF = 46.4 / 65.9 = 70.4%

The shove only works if he's folding at least 70% of the time given he has some air - the situation is worse if he continues with, at worst, OESD's.

He's certainly calling the shove will all sets/2 Pair (15), and likely calling a shove with overpairs JJ+ (21). This is 36 of 95 combos, or close to 40% of flop donk range. So Hero's shove is ill-advised.

OK, Hero has a hand like 88 and 99 in the blinds, it gets opened by the CO or BTN, everyone else folds. What do we do? 3bet? Call? Feels like way too much equity to fold preflop, but how best to play it?

HH as played (2nl)

Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 100 BB
MP: 230 BB
CO: 503 BB (VPIP: 19.3, PFR: 14.3, 3Bet Preflop: 3.04, Hands: 1,800)
BTN: 76.5 BB
SB: 64.5 BB


SB posts 0.5 BB, Hero posts 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9


fold, fold, CO raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, CO calls 8 BB


Flop: (25.5 BB, 2 players) 3 3 Q
Hero bets 11 BB


Villain's PFR in the CO is 20% with 300 opportunities. He's been 3bet 10 times (as CO), folded 6 times, 4bet 0 times. So we'll assume he plays 20% of his hands, e.g. continues with his Top 8% and folds the other 12%. Even though he hasn't 4bet, my assumption is that he'll 4bet or shove AA, KK and AK (his top 2%).

Ranges:
PFR - 66+, Any 2 T or better (except QT/JT), A2s+, A8o+, 98s+

4bet/shove: AA, KK, AK (28)
Call 3bet: A8s+, ATo+, TT-QQ, KJ, KQ (106)
Fold to 3bet: 66-99, A9o, A8o, A2s-A7s, JT, QT, KT, QJ

Hero makes 5.5 BB whenever Villain folds (60%). With 99, we're folding to any 4bet/shove (10%) which is an 11 BB loss.

EV = .6 * 5.5 - .1 * 11 BB + .3 * ( Playable Equity vs. Call)

EV = 2.2 BB + .3 * PE

Pokerstove says Hero is a 49/51 dog to the calling range above, but Hero is going to have a hard time on high card boards. Let's break down the cards Villain could have on the flop:

Aces - 56 combos
Kings - 32 combos
Queens - 38 combos
Jacks - 38 combos

There's some overlap since he can have more than one Jack or better (AQ, KQ, AJ, KJ). About half the time, Villain has an Ace. Let's suppose Hero donks any non-Ace board, check/folds any board with an Ace, bet/folds all K-high and Q-high boards and bet/calls J-high and worse boards. I may do some math later (like the fact the board comes T-high 30.5% of the time and we'd anticipate our 99 playing well against all of his range except TT, JJ and QQ).

Even though Hero has a slightly higher equity (54%) when he flats Villain's PFR, 3betting is preferable given:

1. Villain is aggressive on the flop - if Villain can both fold and raise, Hero's bet/fold plan on flop works well.
2. Villain doesn't 4bet light or call too wide - this compresses Villain's possible cards into the Broadway range, heavy on A's.

Both considerations are vital. The compressed range makes our bet/fold plan viable, but we have trouble on the turn if he flats. His aggression keeps our life straightforward and profitable postflop.

Interesting HH:

Hero (BB): 105.5 BB
UTG: 185 BB
MP: 98.5 BB
CO: 459.5 BB (VPIP: 24.70, PFR: 20.65, 3Bet Preflop: 9.68, Hands: 253)
BTN: 153 BB (VPIP: 29.63, PFR: 22.53, 3Bet Preflop: 3.39, Hands: 334)
SB: 100.5 BB


SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q K


fold, fold, CO raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 10 BB, CO calls 7 BB, fold


Flop: (23.5 BB, 2 players) J J 6
Hero bets 15 BB, CO calls 15 BB


Turn: (53.5 BB, 2 players) K
Hero bets 25.5 BB, fold

Preflop. CO has 93% fold to 3bet and a wide enough "raise first in" from the CO (29%) to make him a good target for the squeeze. The BTN is tougher. He only folds 38% to preflop 3bets. However, he has already ruled out the top 6-7% of his hands by calling. CO will do the same - he'll fold most of his range, 4bet his top 3% or so and call with a narrow ranged of mostly Broadway cards. Let's try some ranges:

CO: 22+,A2+,K8s+,Q9s+,QJo,J9s+,JTo,T8s+,98s (29%)

He's folding everything but AJs, AQ, KJs+, KQ, TT-QQ, with AA, KK, and AK being 4bet (6.5%, 2/3 of which is calling. So CO is folding about 75% of his hands to the squeeze.

BTN: He calls with about 15% of his hands, 3bets with 5%. If he's 3betting AJs+, JJ+, AQ+, KQs, that leaves:

TT-66,ATs-A4s,KJs-K8s,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,AJo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

What can he continue with? He does have position, so he'll have something like:

TT, 99, ATs, A9s, KJs, KTs, QJs, JTs

which has decent but not overwhelming equity vs. KQ.

Preflop Summary.

The squeeze works well when the first villain to act has a large PFR but small 4/bet / calling range. The BTN has already limited his hand, and even with position is going to have trouble post against Hero's range. As in the 3bet with 99 in above post, we again have a situation where the preflop raise is effective not so much because of the playable equity against the range faced when called, but the lack of equity against all of the big hands we can rule out.

Flop.

Presuming we get 4bet by AA, KK and AK, when CO calls we believe he might have:

AQ, AJs (18)
KQ, KJs (18)
TT-QQ (14)

Of these 50 combos, only 5 of them have a Jack in them, so this is a perfect board to donk into.

Both the 99 hand and KQ hand I'm more interested in their Unopened PFR stat than any other stat, when deciding to 3b these.

Both of these hands would be reasonable calls pre as well.

As played - 99 I think is fine. cbetting sometimes and c/c some other times.

KQ hand - Turn is close. Not close in the sense that I don't think we're ahead, but I think we may be narrowing his continuing range to hands that beat us (unless he's a big fish). I just can't see many 88/99 stuff peeling. Maybe TT/QQ would peel. It's not well balanced, but I don't mind a check on the turn fairly often (with intention of calling). If you bet and get jammed, it's also pretty gross.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Both the 99 hand and KQ hand I'm more interested in their Unopened PFR stat than any other stat, when deciding to 3b these.

Both of these hands would be reasonable calls pre as well.

As played - 99 I think is fine. cbetting sometimes and c/c some other times.

KQ hand - Turn is close. Not close in the sense that I don't think we're ahead, but I think we may be narrowing his continuing range to hands that beat us (unless he's a big fish). I just can't see many 88/99 stuff peeling. Maybe TT/QQ would peel. It's not well balanced, but I don't mind a check on the turn fairly often (with intention of calling). If you bet and get jammed, it's also pretty gross.

Wow, advice from Griff in the op thread! Thanks!

I read this before I played tonight, and I've been taking a close look at these types of hands. Having equity oop can be hard to deal with, but if I put V on a range, I'm finding I can bet/float with reasonable accuracy.

I just found the "Raise first in" stat on PT4 a couple days ago. Do you have it on your HUD? I don't tend to raise light pre except when this stat would be more accurate than PFR.

The games have been fun. I was up 3 BI Sunday, down a BI yesterday, up one BI today (early morning Tuesday, also known as Monday night). Earning the rake. Clearing the bonus. I need about 10 more BI to move up.

I'm probably prone to jumping to quick conclusions based on small sample sizes too quickly. But if someone has two/three instances to open for a steal in an unopened pot and they take those opportunities, I'm quickly assuming that it's not just random variance and they have explicitly incorporated stealing into their gameplan (ie: are very wide).

Similarly I generally extrapolate that someone with a high steal from BTN/CO, is probably lighter than most on HJ as well.

I'm playing bodog now (anonymous - thus low sample sizes across the board) - sometimes these small sample size adjustments get me into trouble, but generally seem reasonable.

In general when widening your 3b ranges OOP I would ask yourself where the money is coming from. Are they folding too much pre-flop? If so, be more likely to 3b wide pre but c/f if they call. Are they calling too many 3b, and folding too many flops? If so, then be more likely to 3b them wide and half pot cb, but shut down when called. Etc.

Good luck moving up!

Originally Posted by griffey24

In general when widening your 3b ranges OOP I would ask yourself where the money is coming from. Are they folding too much pre-flop? If so, be more likely to 3b wide pre but c/f if they call. Are they calling too many 3b, and folding too many flops? If so, then be more likely to 3b them wide and half pot cb, but shut down when called. Etc.

Sage advice. Thanks!

I have a couple of regs with ATS > 40% and Fold to 3bet > 90%. So I can 3bet lighter, keep hands like TT or KQ in my flatting range. Both ways are money.

Now I'll be thinking, not just about stats, but also where the money's coming from.

Hey, FTR, I'm back!

I was a winning player in 2007 and 2008 when this thread started. Dabbled a bit in 2015, nothing serious. I'm back now after 9 years of not playing a single hand of poker and 16 years since I was last a consistently winning poker player at 25nl 6-max.

I found a few stray pennies on ACR, so I'm trying to turn $25 into a bankroll. Using the 25 buy-in rule for proper bankroll management, this will be my journey:

$50 for 2nl
$125 for 5nl
$250 for 10nl
$625 for 25nl

I hope to regather some classic threads, read up on classic strategy and also learn from new content. I believe that getting better at poker is quite simple: "put your opponent on a range." I intend to post hand histories and work on my game.

Best of luck at the tables! See y'all around!!

damn, blast from the past. glhf! hmu if you want to chat poker.