Operation Winning is a Habit

God I can't wait to play with a hud again...

If history serves, I should get a check on monday from cake so I can deposit it and hopefully I'll be able to deposit 1g in stars for the reload bonus the next day. If not I'll just settle 500 or 600 in there and get my deepstack play in there. In the meantime I'm going to play with your chunking method, I think you're on to something.

I keep rearranging the bottom-end chunks, trying to keep them easy to remember, useful and about equally likely to show up and have value. Meh. I feel like I'm doing a good bit better with ranges, but I'm down 2 BI today.

Good luck on Stars. I thought about chasing that bonus, but I didn't have time to free up cash from my poker accounts and get it over there (being in the U. S. and trying to move $$ quickly freakin' sucks).

Chunking. is. awesome. I will revisit this portion of your blog.

It may be that the process of developing chunking makes you a better reader and that's all there is to it, then again maybe not. This could be the beginning of Robb's very own theorem.

The process is definitely a good start. I think I'm going to bring a notebook to the incredibly boring private cash game I'll be playing tomorrow...

I'm US as well, if I take a loss in the cash game tomorrow than my ability to make that bonus in time will hinge on a cashout check from another site coming in as fast as the last one did (exactly 1 week). If anyone reading this is considering going pro, write down "monthly paychecks" in the "cons" section.

This operation looks awesome. I think I'm going to give it a full read when I'm on the train home tomorrow.

GL with the grind Robb

Originally Posted by dev

. If anyone reading this is considering going pro, write down "monthly paychecks" in the "cons" section.

disagree

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by dev

. If anyone reading this is considering going pro, write down "monthly paychecks" in the "cons" section.

disagree

Sorry, but you need at least 2500 posts to give one word responses no one understands.

Originally Posted by dev

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by dev

. If anyone reading this is considering going pro, write down "monthly paychecks" in the "cons" section.

disagree

Sorry, but you need at least 2500 posts to give one word responses no one understands.

I'm sure that you can understand that my post means that i mean i disagree with the quoted section of what you posted.

shall i spell it out to you why i disagree?
IF you are smart about how you go pro, you withdraw a monthly paycheck, regardless of how the month has gone - pokerwise. You play off a deep enough roll and with risk-averse enough bankroll management that you can do this.

A good example is chardrian's blog-op.

hell, even I withdraw every month - already. If I go pro mid-this year, then i will be withdrawing $x (yet to be decided what x is ) every month. Probably $2.5k US for the first little while until i get my online roll juiced up. When i experienced my first severe downswing of around 20buyins, I responded by withdrawing another 15 from my poker roll to my savings account

wow, one post closer to 2500 - then i can write what i want ???

p.s. nice sig!

Excuse me for a moment while I add a post to my own thread :P

JK, interesting discussion. I have no interest in turning pro in the next decade, but I would like to be withdrawing 1k a month by late summer. A 2nd monthly paycheck would be nice. I just hit a severe downswing last couple of days, so I understand Dev's point, and Daven's.

My only issue is that my roll isn't fluid enough. I don't keep a big enough buffer to take advantage of stuff like the new stars bonus because I'm busy paying down loans. Seriously, Obama's gotta stop worrying about the economy and the environment crap, and get on this whole poker thing!

I've got discipline issues.

I just upgraded to the Pro version of HEM, so it will now support 100nl+. LoL. Just gotta keep grinding at 50nl. Shouldn't have bought the upgrade, but I had the money available. Discipline, Robb, discipline.

I feel like I've made a lot of progress lately, and the poker gods have quit laughing at my better play by easing up on the negative variance hex. While I'm not crushing 50nl, I am getting better. My B game (which is an unfortunately persistent part of my grind) beats 50nl about 1 - 1.5 ptBB/100 when it used to not even break even at 25nl. My A game is probably around 3 ptBB/100.

I hope to get back to 6m this Summer. The reg wars at full nit are really help my range reads (since every thing's so narrow), but I'd like to see how the short-handed games play at 50nl and 100nl. The HH's I see on people's op threads are interesting. Definitely not the nit fest I'm grinding through every night.

But poker life is good. Up a few hundred for the month, and who really cares if it's mostly rakeback? Get rolled, move up, and learn more. Maybe not in that order.

Originally Posted by dev

My only issue is that my roll isn't fluid enough. I don't keep a big enough buffer to take advantage of stuff like the new stars bonus because I'm busy paying down loans. Seriously, Obama's gotta stop worrying about the economy and the environment crap, and get on this whole poker thing!

You know on Stars you dont need to keep the money there? Obviously depends how fluid your RL cash is, but you can deposit cash outside of your roll, wait 2 days (I think) then withdraw it back out again and you still qualify for the bonus. Something to bare in mind.

Just a quick summary of my history with poker.

I have deposited $350 in my life, and bought another $150 worth of poker software. I played for a year on "my last $100 deposit," from September 2007 to September 2008. In late September of 2008, I had roughly $350 in my poker accounts.

By Jan 30, 2009, I had withdrawn $600 lifetime and had $2,700. This month I've earned just less than $500 (so far, it may go down :P ) and withdrew another $550.

All told, it's a $3,550 improvement in the last 5 months. Sorry for the brag post. I'm just reviewing everything this month 'cuz it's tax time, so the wife and I are discussing finances. It's amazing. She wasn't real excited about me playing poker a year ago. Now, she's planning how she's gonna spend her "share" of my winnings. I always give her about 25% of whatever I withdraw. It's amazing how that changes her outlook on poker. As long as I keep winning enough to withdraw regularly, it seems like everyone'll be happy.

I just needed a spot to "think out loud" about poker. I've been planning some color-codings in my HUD/FT notes. Color tags to highlight various money making opportunities.

Example: SOL pre is my code for "stacks off light preflop." Basically it means they'll jam all-in with TT or worse and AQo or worse.

AKo and QQ are 60-40 dogs to someone with a QQ+, AKo stack off range pre, and adding in JJ/TT/99 only improves that slightly for AK (QQ becomes a winner as soon as TT is in the range). Against AQ+/JJ+, AK/QQ are very slight favorites.

So to play AK/QQ for a shove preflop, we need some read that villain is willing to get all-in with AQ and JJ. Seeing someone all-in with AJs or 99 is a big money read.

So I've been thinking about other reads that can make big money. Here are some ideas:

1. Folds big one pair hands to set lines (check/call flop, check/raise turn). This read is hard to get because you don't see villain's cards. You have to trust your ranges and infer a bit, but once you have it you can pick up some 40bb pots. These villains are ones capable of two barrelling AK or 99 on a dry Qxxx board.

2. Can fold medium-strength hands to river bets. Since the pot is is larger by the river, knowing who is capable of a lay down can help you pick off "orphaned" pots that were contested after a cbet flop and tepid turn action.

3. Can't fold medium-strength hands to river bets. Knowing who will call down a 2/3's PSB on the river with 2nd pair or TP weak kicker helps expand your value range.

4. Plays cbet/fold too often on the flop. Someone with an 80% cbet stat who folds to a raise (hero ip) or a check/raise (hero oop) can give up lots of chips if hero picks good spots on dry boards that are J-high (or worse).

5. Small bets mean medium-weak hands. If someone will telegraph the strength of their hand by changing their bet-size, they're playing cards face up. I see a lot of 1/3 PSB's (or less) with 2nd pair or 55. These players can be bluffed off bad hands, and hero can play pot control with draws, combos and his own medium strength hands. When Hero has a monster hand, he knows not to bet too aggressively. Probably should put this one higher up list in terms of overall value to be gained.

6. Calls 3bet too wide. I've lost some 3bet pots to 55 and 77 lately when I 3bet AK ip and caught air on all streets. Make a note, profit later.

I also had an LoL moment reading someone talking about the 5nl "big money" reads, i.e. finding a 50/5 fish and raising them for value with decent hands. Those players still exist at 50nl, of course, but the big money reads at 50nl all involve a good bit of risk and more in-depth reads, so they have to be solid.

I have a system where I make the initial read and put two question marks in my notes. When I confirm the read, I take away a question mark. If I have the read with no question marks, it means I've seen that line at least 3 times. I take actual notes, too, to help develop other reads, but the ?? and color give me a "quick read" so I can plan the action as I'm glancing over my notes.

I am also thinking about a "3bets wide in the blinds" note, but that information is pretty available in the HUD 3bet stats. It seems tons of regs at 50nl like 3betting from the BB w/ Axs or sc's, and lay them down to a 4bet. I picked up 88 otb and raised, got 3bet and then 4bet 2.5x. Villain called. I picked up an OESD and he picked up a gutshot with AQ. I cbet, then checked down blanks. Those ragged 3bet and 4bet pots happen a good bit, especially in stealing situations, so being able to "4bet bluff" can be profitable. It can also run into a huge hand and get you stacked pretty easy. I have a randomized set of hands and particular villain stats I'm looking for before I'll consider it.

There's another situation that happens all the time at 50nl where money can be made: hero raises preflop with AK in EP, catches air, cbets and gets called from LP. Now what? Most folks shut down, so underpairs like 99 can call one street because it locks folks up who have air on boards that are J-high or worse. The ol' two-barrel isn't the best defense by itself. I'm considering a good bit more "delayed cbet" with top pair / overpair hands on dry boards, and also using the check/raise more. At some point, they have to fear the check and the bet which will only happen if some made hands get checked/called or check/raised instead of blindly cbet. Merging ranges and all that. I've resisted worrying to much about merging, but it seems there are enough regs with reads that it's time to cross them up somewhat.

you forget about the pot size
if someone 4b you and you 5b and their calling range is QQ+, AK you are probably breaking even because you have the pot odds to play for your entire stack because you're putting in 35 into a pot of 100, and you have 40% equity

and the one time you catch a bluff you get the pot

Originally Posted by iopq

you forget about the pot size

No, i didn't, I just take those situations on a case-by-case basis. I generally play/get deep-stacked, so I want reads that I can be at least 50-50 if I'm all in. I do understand there are times to shove preflop with JJ because stack/pot size, but it's nice to have solid reads about what they'll stack off with and know you're in with JJ and +equity against his range.

oops, double post.

Dammit Robb, you are the man lol. I don't know why I haven't come in here and read through this thread before, but I will have to start popping in more often from now on. A lot (pretty much the majority) of your "poker" posts are really insightful. Such as your chunking method for determining a range is an awesome idea. I'm going to copy/paste that into a word doc and have it open while playing just to check up on every now and then.

Thanks for the really good/great thread and keep up the good work!

HUD stats will sort most of this out.

1, 2, & 3 use W$WSD
4 use cbet stat
5 notes
6 Fold to 3-bet and 4-bet are both on your HUD, right?

Originally Posted by daven

HUD stats will sort most of this out.

1, 2, & 3 use W$WSD
4 use cbet stat
5 notes
6 Fold to 3-bet and 4-bet are both on your HUD, right?

This is great advice. I do have all these stats on the main HUD menu, but I haven't really made use of W$WSD because I don't really know what do with it. What is the break point between someone who calls a 2/3 PSB on the river with 2nd pair and someone who routinely folds medium strength hands on the river? Where is the break point for someone who folds TP hands on the turn when you raise or check/raise? How accurate is the read?

6. The colors just let me know the worst play I've seen. Red Red means I've seen him all in with 77 or AT or KQ or worse. Red Orange means he'll get it all-in w/ TT or AQ or worse. Each new color code is a new group of hands I can play for stacks preflop, before consulting HUD stats or notes.

Originally Posted by Robb

I haven't really made use of W$WSD because I don't really know what do with it. What is the break point between someone who calls a 2/3 PSB on the river with 2nd pair and someone who routinely folds medium strength hands on the river? Where is the break point for someone who folds TP hands on the turn when you raise or check/raise? How accurate is the read?

compare it to your stats and how you would play. HUD stats are relative to something, use yourself as a baseline. Also, know what to do with someone who folds too many rivers, etc. Also consider aggression frequency - thin value vs small hand-small pot concepts. Dunno, it will start to make sense once you have the stat up and start thinking about it as you watch villain's actions.

make sure you consider hands volume with this stat (as well as 3-bet stats)

By the way, iou $9, but only for a few more minutes!

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by Robb

I haven't really made use of W$WSD because I don't really know what do with it. What is the break point between someone who calls a 2/3 PSB on the river with 2nd pair and someone who routinely folds medium strength hands on the river? Where is the break point for someone who folds TP hands on the turn when you raise or check/raise? How accurate is the read?

compare it to your stats and how you would play. HUD stats are relative to something, use yourself as a baseline. Also, know what to do with someone who folds too many rivers, etc. Also consider aggression frequency - thin value vs small hand-small pot concepts. Dunno, it will start to make sense once you have the stat up and start thinking about it as you watch villain's actions.

make sure you consider hands volume with this stat (as well as 3-bet stats)

All right, that's a plan. I will start the W$WSD viewing ASAP. Also, I'm getting a pretty decent database at 50nl, so I often have a couple of hundred HH's against villains, sometimes 1k+. So I'll watch them, see what's what, and profit.

OK, so I took daven's advice and started checking the W$WSD and W$WSF stats. Just as a first guess, it seems any W$WSF < 35 or so is a sign of very spewy play; and any W$WSD < 45 is a sign the person may call down too many bets on the turn/river.

I'm still doing the color-coding. I like having "money reads" show up like a neon sign in the middle of my poker tables. And I'm still taking lots of notes to back up the colors. And it's cool. Villains really do have patterns to their play, and you can infer a lot from a "big leak" note. Highlighting them has really got me thinking each hand how I can exploit them. I had TT on a Kxx flop where I would have called 99% of the time in March, and I folded it 'cuz the person doesn't cbet without hitting the flop. See the read, make the lay down. I got a line a guy who calls the river too much and picked up 2 $10 thin value bets. See the read, make a profit.

I think the best thing about spending so much time analyzing the big exploitable habits villains/regs have is that I found some of my own leaks. For example, I believe I call down more than I should in big pots - can't let my money go. I think I fold correctly pretty much in small/med pots. But I get attached to the bigger pots, 'cuz so much of my stack is in there (I'm talking like 20 - 25bb, just less than pot-committed), and I lose more. Put 'em on a range, and when you're drawing thin, just fold those rags, amiright?

I'm also changing some things postflop. I believe I was too readable especially in EP. I bet every time I hit the flop and cbet a good bit (probably too much). I'm toning both down a lot, adding in lines like check/raise and check/call/donk turn with some top pair overpair hands. I'm also bluffing some, especially with draws/overcards that could make big hands. Sometimes just with an underpair or air.

And then there's preflop, which I used to think I was solid on. I'm flatting AA a lot in LP which I never used to. You earn some advantages in the CO and BTN, often getting another weak call out of the BB. A 3-way flop isn't horrible with AA, and it makes the pot bigger for a nice raise.

A hand I played tonight went like that: MP bets $2, I call otb, BB calls, flop is Qxx. MP cbets $4 into a $6 pot, I raise to $11, all fold. I used to 3bet AA all the time, and most of the time you get a fold, so a $2 profit. When you get your 3bet called, it's rare they call the cbet. So you bet $6 and get $4 more from the PFR. I'm just pretty certain flatting AA late is more profitable, and it will add some excitement into my LP flat calls when the regs start to realize it! I always 3bet KK, 'cuz I hate Axx flops with it, but I've begun flatting AK some as well. Still, gotta have AA and AK in the 3bet/5bet range, I'm randomizing some to keep mixing it up.

So, the return to 3betting and 4betting and how the ranges work and when to stack off...I'll have to rework the preflop stuff again after a few k hands of seeing how the changes seem to play out for me. Then I'll be back at work postflop, trying to sort it.

But it's all good. I feel like I'm finding leaks and putting some positive energy in poker, trying different lines and tactics that should make a big difference in my bottom line. And I'm spending poker profits, despite a bad month last month. So life is beautiful.

Originally Posted by Robb

OK, so I took daven's advice and started checking the W$WSD and W$WSF stats. Just as a first guess, it seems any W$WSF < 35 or so is a sign of very spewy play; and any W$WSD < 45 is a sign the person may call down too many bets on the turn/river.

I realized just before I feel asleep that night that the numbers slide with VP$P, and the part in bold is truly for nits. If someone's VP$P ~ 30, then W$WSF ~ 25 - 30 isn't bad. But if someone's VP$P ~ 10, they need a W$WSF closer to 40. Same idea for W$SD. But I'm learning how to use it. I think the biggest problem is that it needs several hundred hands to be accurate enough to use. A 5 - 8% difference can be meaningful with these two stats, but you don't have that level of accuracy until about 1k hands.

Started up a session after not playing most of the week due to work (finals week!). I sit down, stack off immediately w/ AA over a set and lose a big pot AK < AJ on an AJx flop. A couple more cooler hands, plus one hand I play badly, and I'm down 2.5 BI. I've been sitting there literally 10 minutes. So I get up and wander around the house, clearing my head for 10 minutes. Sit back down and have the best heater of my life.

I'm + 9 BI for the night over 1.1k hands, and more than 11 BI's up from where I was when I took the break at about 40 hands. I know it's positive variance and not anything I did all that great, but it just feels awesome. I get dealt AA at least 15 times, and people are 3betting the sh*t of me. All my top pair hands held up, all my draws hit by the turn, all my all-ins where I was ahead or coin flipping all ended up with the chips sliding my way.

I know I shouldn't brag, but the negative variance and cold streaks really get you down, so I think it's pretty important to celebrate the upswings.

Here's to our heaters, may they last all year.

Originally Posted by Robb

I'm + 9 BI for the night over 1.1k hands, and more than 11 BI's up from where I was when I took the break at about 40 hands.

Here's to our heaters, may they last all year.

i like heaters.
Kinda like this from session just gone:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (2 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($258.40)
Hero (Button) ($101.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
Hero bets $3, SB raises to $10, Hero raises to $22, SB calls $12

Flop: ($44) 3, 7, 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $19, SB raises to $236.40 (All-In), Hero calls $60.50 (All-In)

Hero had K, K
SB had 9, 8

Love that hand daven. Here's a hand from last night that I've been thinking through. Villain was 27/20/2.5 over 100 hands, and he seems to bet right out with a hand. He's got something, that's certain, and I guess it comes down to how much sets are part of his range. What do you think of a shove here? At least half his range for this line has to be sets - maybe more than half.


$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($100.00)
CO ($157.00)
Hero (BTN) ($56.85)
SB ($50.25)
BB ($71.05)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 5 players) Hero is BTN
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25, 2 players)
BB bets $2, Hero raises to $8.50, BB raises to $18.50, $10 to Hero ($46.35)?

You have 8 outs most likely (ie he has a set) on turn and 7 outs on river. I think you have good implied odds to call $10 here and hit your flush. If he wanted to price out the draws he needed to raise more.

A shove you are betting $46 to win $114 less rake. You dont have those odds and I dont see a lot of fold equity to lay on top here...

Shitty spot. Might just flat the flop donk, especially if you read that as having something rather than bluffing you. As Paul points out, you dont have a heap of equity, stacking off here as a dog isnt a great plan.

Remember semi-bluffs arent value bets, they're bluffs with equity. If you dont have any/much FE then their value goes sharply downwards.

call the flop 3-bet.

Originally Posted by Robb

Love that hand daven.

i loved it until the turn....

I don't like a call here at all, because your equity is likely to be way lower on the turn. He's going to bet pretty much any card, and probably at least half pot. If the turn is a non-6 diamond, great, get it in. But if its a much more likely non-diamond you have to fold.

So I think its shove or fold, and which depends on what you think his range is. If you're pretty certain he has something, then you likely have the 8.5 flush outs (discounting the 6) and maybe some Ace outs if he has an overpair other than Aces. If we round it off at 9 outs and assume basically zero fold equity, I think that makes it a marginal fold, but it really is marginal - it probably doesn't matter much which way you go. If you can also put some weaker draws in his range and/or can see a shove scaring him off it, then I think shove soon becomes the better play.

For me a decision this close probably depends on a few intangibles like table image, etc, but given how certain you seem to be that you're way behind, I'd probably lean towards a fold.

Heater continues. My last 2.5k hands are +12.5 BI's at 50nl, after 3.5 BI's up tonight. Heck, I was breakeven for the month a week ago, and I'm not too far away from a 1k month. LoL. Crazy game we play. Like it, tho!!

Ben has inspired me to rethink my ultra nitty bankroll management. I believe I'll be tackling 100nl on less than 40 BI's. Here's why.

1. If you have solid poker discipline and will move down when your stop-loss says to, you're not risking your roll.
2. I needed to grind discipline more than roll at 10nl and 25nl (see #1). Now, I've got the discipline and - I believe - the game for 100nl.
3. If you're certain you can win at your current level and below, moving up on 20 - 25 BI's isn't risking anything except extra time later.
4. I used to get weak-tight a lot when the pots got big and I only had 20 BI's behind. Weak-tight would probably be +EV. It's certainly not a big problem in my game these days, and hasn't been for months.

So I'm winning at 50nl and can always return. I'll take a shot at 100nl 6m when I hit 25 BI's. I will drop back to 50nl at $1,750 and back to 25nl at $1,250.

I believe my move-up level for 200nl will be 30 BI's, and I would hope that happens before the end of the year. But I don't care about that right now. I've sort of changed how I keep score for poker. Now I think in terms of withdrawing $$. After my $1.1k downer in March, I really got the point: it ain't winnings until you spend it. So I cashed out $200 today, and plan to cash out $200 a month every month until the point at which I can safely cash out more.

I have trouble now that the numbers are above $2k caring as much as I should about $10 here or $25 there. If I lower the requirements for moving up and know I have to "guard" each dollar to keep my bankroll in shape for the monthly withdrawals, I believe I'll have more incentive to play my A game every hand. When I play the ol' A game, I win. Imagine that.

One final reason to withdraw is confidence. I just play better when I'm spending poker dollars on my kids, or on a date with my wife. Or when I treat everyone from work at Happy Hour with 3 pitchers. If I leave $200 online and my roll is 2.6k instead of 2.4, that doesn't generate near the confidence as giving my kids presents worth $75 that I bought with poker money.

Anyway, that's the reason for ditching the 4.5k by may operation thread. I just feel like it was hindering my poker more than enhancing it. I need to play in ways that make the most sense for me now, and so I'm considering and making some changes.

Heaters make everything easier. I will let you know as the week progresses what I've decided for certain and for final. But I think I'll be gunning for 100nl in the next couple of weeks, trying to keep pace with Ben.

Originally Posted by TonyB73

For me a decision this close probably depends on a few intangibles like table image, etc, but given how certain you seem to be that you're way behind, I'd probably lean towards a fold.

I shoved, he showed the set, and I caught the diamond on the river. Unfortunately, it was the 6 of diamonds.

I'm trying not to be too results oriented, but I was shaking my head as I shoved thinking, "He's got a set. He could possibly have another couple combos, but he's got a set." He had made a big lay down about 20 hands earlier, so I thought I might have some FE. With the timer zooming toward to zero, I just mashed that slider all the way the right and spewed the chips into his stack.

Thanks for the help, guys.

Hey, good luck with this. BRM is definately a factor of how comfortable you are. I like aggressive BRM because I want to move up as fast as I can, however I'm not convinced its best for me given how I still let my emotions get to me sometimes. Sticking to it for now though. Same as you, the move to 200nl I'll probably be more conservative though, because I'm more worried about the variance there.

Withdrawing is fun. I've been putting it off till I reach certain milestones (other than the $1k I did a while back). I'm doing that because I want to reach certain BR and stakes levels before I do to (in theory) maximise how much I can withdraw once I start. On the other hand, one of the issues with my emotional state at times has been the months and months of no withdrawals making me feel like its all a bit pointless at times. I like your idea of withdrawing even just a little bit and splashing it on friends/family to help make all the time spent playing/studying feel worthwhile .

Keep pace with me? I'm pretty sure your roll is significantly bigger than mine now anyway?

Did someone say heater?

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
2 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
BTN ($197.26)
Hero (BB) ($111.50)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 2 players) Hero is BB
BTN calls $0.50, Hero raises to $4, BTN calls $3

Flop: ($8, 2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5

Turn: ($18, 2 players)
Hero bets $9, BTN calls $9

River: ($36, 2 players)
Hero bets $17, BTN raises to $34, Hero raises to $93.50, BTN calls $59.50

Final Pot: $223
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $222 ( won $110.50 )
BTN lost -$111.50


That made +2 buyins in my first 500 hands of 100nl. Nice way to start .

Q f***ing 8 offsuit??? - lulz on flatting w/ complete garbage - well, at least he had position!!

nh, Ben

Appreciate the feedback on br and moving up. I didn't even consider moving up on less roll until I realized you were using more aggressive limits. Then I started thinking about WHY the nitty limits had worked so well for my poker development. We each have our own tilt triggers and poker demons. My br management was chosen to combat specific robb-issues that aren't really a problem now.

First evenin' of 5 with the wife and kids out of town. Made some quessadillas, played some poker, drank some beer. Up 2.5 BI. AA > A2s on FD flop for 1.5 BI. I shoved over a flop raise putting him on exactly Axs. Had another funky hand, AhQd on a QTdXd board. Bet/call. Xd. Bet/call. River's the Ad, so I have the 2nd nuts. He shoves. I tank. I decide there's too much in the pot not to call. He flips up K9o, chasing the gutterball, then bluffing the flush. nh, feesh.

I used to think guys like McatDog and Bbickes were full of sh*t, talking about the feesh at 100nl and higher. I didn't play extremely well, but I stayed with it for 750 hands, stacking off with QQ < KK on an all-babies flop, but making some reads and taking down my share of pots. But the session was break-even without the feesh.

Thank all that's holy for feesh.

Some learning: I've been reorganizing my flop lines, checking more oop with top pair hands (and overs/air), sometimes check/calling and firing the turn, sometimes c/r'ing. So my cbet range is stronger statistically oop since the % is lower, but it's actually weaker and more polarized. But like every cbet was getting floated. I changed my typical cbet amount from 2/3 - 3/4 to more like 3/4 - pot. Funny how a little change can work so well. I'm getting the folds I need now, but still enough calls to make my TPTK hands profitable. The regs are great. They will adjust to your solid play, and start shipping their chips, if you figure them out, make your solid reads, and fire when the ranges say you're ahead or they're likely weak.

I did some range practice while I was eating my dinner. I made a sheet with my "chunks" (see above), and I started physically moving pennies around it, ditching various combos street by street. Out of 10 hands I practiced, I was correct with a river range of 5 combos or less 3 times, and one hand I narrowed it to 3 combos. I was profiling a TAGG reg, so the ranges were based on 22/16 preflop stats.

I also realized this TAGG reg was adjusting to HUD stats / reads, attacking the table whale by 4betting 44. Whale calls, TAGG spikes the set, whale stacks off with 2nd pair, nh. Nice note to have. It does so many good things for my game when I practice and work on poker skills. Why do I do it so rarely?

I'm $100 away from $2.5k in roll, so I will probably move up later this week if I can grind up there. Even if I get there later tonight, I won't try 100nl until tomorrow. I'm tired. I'm playing OK, but only like B+ game. That's good enough for 50nl these days, but no way is anything but A game 100nl ready. I plan to do a 10-hand range practice session every day this week to help get me ready for the move up.

I'm also working on my 2,000th FTR post. LoL, 28,000 words of robb-nonsense now for the world to see on FTR. I'll post some HH's later. I got into a coupla weird spots I'll want help with.

One more beer and then bed. Maybe up early in the AM hours for another session. Too bad jack's bar is closed this week while the fam's away...

I'm at 100nl now, up 5 BI thanks to positive variance. I'd like any all comments about these hands. It's taken 2k hands for my heart rate to get under 100bbm while playing - I now know what it means to play white-knuckle, scared-money poker. But I'm riding the heater into 100nl, and I'm settling in a bit.

Fortunately, fear has a way of focusing the mind. I'm playing only 4 tables and taking time with each read on each street. I'm lucky that I have HH's on lots of the regs here from my time at 50nl. I'm lucky that most of the regs really suck at poker - not so lucky that I'm one of them!

Hand 1. Villain is 18/15/1.3. His steal attempts from the BTN are 46%. Oh, yeah, I've got 600 hands on him. Here's my notes:
1. 22 PFR UTG, c/c 2 streets on JT8J FD board
2. Flats ATo in BB vs. SB steal attempt

I've tangled with him in steal situations, and he's pretty LAGGy preflop. With his stealing stats, I think I'm value betting flop and turn all the time. But the river...hmm. The only bet size that makes sense is all-in. I don't like checking - I think he'll call with worse. But his line is consistent with a set, even 99.


$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($110.25)
CO ($106.10)
BTN ($136.20)
SB ($117.75)
Hero (BB) ($130.90)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BB
2 folds, BTN raises to $3.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, BTN calls $7.50

Flop: ($22.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $14, BTN calls $14

Turn: ($50.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $26, BTN calls $26

River: ($102.50, 2 players)
Hero ($79.90)?


Hand 2. Villain is typical 100nl TAGG-reg: 18/15/2.1 w/ 8% 3bet over 800 hands. In the BB, he's only 3bet 2%. He doesn't flat in the BB much differently than his overall stats. No notes.

When I saw the flop, I knew he was check/calling the flop with basically every hand is flat call range. So I committed to a 2 barrel if the turn's a brick.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($70.60)
UTG+1 ($160.10)
CO ($116.05)
Hero (BTN) ($112.55)
SB ($100.00)
BB ($106.10)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN
3 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, BB calls $3

Flop: ($8.50, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

Turn: ($18.50, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8


Hand 3. Villain is 38/16/1.8 over 30 hands. I felt like he was drawing on the flop, and liked the turn card until he raised. Good fold?

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($154.75)
Hero (UTG 1) ($100.00)
CO ($107.20)
BTN ($118.20)
SB ($112.90)
BB ($26.20)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is UTG 1
1 fold, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN calls $6

Turn: ($20.50, 2 players)
Hero bets $12, BTN raises to $56.50, $44.50 to Hero ($78.50)?


Hand 4. Villain is 23/13/3.5 over 80 hands. No notes. I don't really know what to do with my hand on the flop. I think I'm way ahead, obviously, so I decide to check/raise and lead the turn if he checks behind. I don't like letting him have a free card, but the board's not real drawy, so I check. Any thoughts?

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($73.15)
CO ($136.50)
BTN ($98.50)
SB ($146.75)
Hero (BB) ($172.75)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BB
1 fold, CO raises to $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $14.50, CO folds, BTN calls $11

Flop: ($33, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $18.90, Hero raises to $75


FWIW, I can't claim much of these winnings were due to good play. here's a look at the amazing heater - this is the last week.

hand 1, 3bet size is kinda small. Turn bet is kinda small. River push is just standard, right?

hand 2, I understand that on a dry board like this you don't expect much value from big bets, but < half pot on the turn? I bet $12 and still expect worse hands to call, then probably check behind on the river.

hand 3, fold.

hand 4, I think it's a good time for a weak lead. We don't know if it's a reg so I'm not really worried about balance. If he flats we can check a non-spade turn to him and hope he stacks off with QQ-KK, AQ and push a spade.

Originally Posted by Robb

Heck, I was breakeven for the month a week ago, and I'm not too far away from a 1k month. LoL. Crazy game we play. Like it, tho!!

vnh

Originally Posted by Robb and reason

it ain't winnings until you spend it....
One final reason to withdraw is confidence. I just play better when I'm spending poker dollars ....

that doesn't generate near the confidence as giving my kids presents worth $75 that I bought with poker money.

very cool.
I make withdrawals after downswings
enjoy 100nl

I didn't mean to post this much of a "year-in-review" in Wonderland, but it's interesting for anyone who didn't see the BC. Thank god for rakeback, is what I'm saying. I can't imagine how hard consistently beating this game would without that padding.

Originally Posted by Robb

I thought some of y'all might find this interesting. Here's my May graph from 2008, when I sucked really bad at 10nl and 25nl specifically, and poker in general.



Here's April 2009, my first "real" 1k month, with $1.2k including $275 rakeback. I dropped 1.5 BI's in the last half hour of April at 100nl, or my actual winnings would be north of 1k. So that's still a goal of mine.



I thought I'd include my stats and some explanation. I was up and down at 50nl, dropped back to 25nl not because of bankroll but because I had a HORRIBLE March, lots of spew and some variance. I had been playing FR, but I have always preferred 6max so I switched to that in March, but really sucked (down $500). I got my 6max game together at 25nl thanks to a heater, moved back up to 50nl where the heater continued and with enough roll recovered, took my first shot at 100nl. Thanks to positive variance, I'm doing OK at 100nl. :P

Here are my April 2009 stats.



This post is mostly for Wonderland, who is interested in moving up and possibly going pro some day. I'm not going pro ever, probably, but my last few months might encourage some of the microgrinders around here, especially when you realize I was right where y'all are until September 2008. So here's my winnings summary for the last 10 months (pretty embarrassing, some of it):



If you'll look at Aug/Sep, you'll see I was just plain awful. I had totally lost my way with poker and couldn't even beat 10nl, despite having won 100 BI's at that level lifetime. BJaust called me out in the "Thoughts about beating the micros" Thread 6, and on September 21st, my game turned around. I began working, really working on my game. I mean really, really, really working. December was my first 1k month, but only because I was grinding the Full Tilt $600 initial deposit bonus.

Now, don't think I'm great at poker. Most of April's winnings are heater-supported. I've played well for long stretches, but I've also spewed my share. I want to be VERY CLEAR: I'm not a winning player at 100nl, yet. I'm just barely hanging in, hoping for some rakeback help and a long enough delay of the eventual negative variance so I can get a foothold and have the bankroll to ride it out. If I lose 10 BI's at 100nl, I'm at my stop-loss and will have to move back down. Just like some of y'all trying to get traction at 10nl or 25nl, I'm right there with ya.

The hardest part is having the discipline to sit down at the computer or with a pad of paper and work on ranges, think about hands, review sessions, find leaks, figure out (on your own!) how to plug leaks. Just work at it. Learn what work works. And do it every week, after every few sessions win or lose.

I don't know much about not sucking at poker, but I know this, and I hope y'all with think about it. I would have been at 100nl sooner if I had simply played A game poker only, ditching any session where I was exhausted, tilty, distracted, depressed or otherwise "off." And the rough patches would have been shorter had I focused more on learning how to play poker than what my current win rate or bankroll was.

Hope this helps some of y'all look forward and plan for success.

Good luck at the tables!!

Wonderland asked about March. The story is in his thread, but most of it folks who've read this operation for the last two months know most of it:

End of Month Micro Review Time

OK, enough of that "see where we've been" stuff. My run the last two weeks has just been amazingly sick, as you will see from those stats/graphs. So here's my question: can I really beat 100nl, or can I only do it with help of variance?

I have several answers to that question:

1. Yes, my A game is competitive at 100nl
2. Yes, my A game is likely winning at 100nl
3. I am finally finding a level where several of the players are what I consider "really solid" players, regs able to consistently give me problems. (Most regs at 50nl and 25nl are easily exploitable in various ways, imo. They are less so at 100nl, and some are pretty good poker players.) I feel I can win solidly here over time, as I gain experience against some better players.
4. No, I can't beat 100nl with anything less than my A game. B game worked at 50nl after while, but not here.
5. Yes, I can beat 100nl 4-tabling, but almost certainly not 6-tabling. (The games move faster because everyone takes less time on each street. I was about to go apesh!t sweating Wonderland and Outlaw watching the timer wind down on every table at 5nl and 10nl.) I guess one goal is possibly add a table, if I think I can do it and still play my A game on all five.

So that's where I'm at. I don't hyperventilate in every big pot any more. I'm a lot more comfortable with the money after 4k hands than I was after 1k. Here are some random observations about 100nl from my few days there:

1. The game is more LAGGy than 50nl, which is a good thing. It seems like games go from Loose-Passive fishiness at 5nl and steadily narrow like an hour glass to point where all the games are filled with reg TAGG-fish at 50nl. On FT at 6m, 100nl seems to be the point where that process reverses, and more of the skilled players are 25/18 so the fish think 50/35 is OK.
2. Thank Lee Jones for rakeback and bonuses!! Wow, it's amazing how fast the basically useless pennies of FT's iron man challenge build up, now. And buying things with FTP's is a ton easier now that the total is spinning up quickly. And rakeback, yeah, that's pretty sweet.
3. I had a goal six months ago to grind up to 100nl and then move to Stars. Dunno. Rethinking that. I like FT, and I'm a loyal customer. I go out of my way to buy gas at this one station I like, for example. So I think I'll grind at FT for the rest of year, with a shot at 200nl perhaps on my radar for the end of this year.
4. I like the TAGG regs at 100nl. I've ID'd a couple of what I call MTM's, "multi-tabling monkeys." They play 25/18/3 w/ 5% 3bet and 35% steals, usually MUCH less positionally aware than they ought to be. They've got the standard moves down: HUD says XX, I have A4s, so 3bet light against steal. Move on. They have great tendencies you can exploit since they play so many tables. The seem to have a "comfort zone" with aggression, the idea that certain hands can only take or apply a specific amount of "heat." You can find places where their range is weak for the line they're taking and just raise them off their hands. They auto-fold and don't seem notice when you do it 3 times in 5 rounds at one table. MTM's are ATM's, imo, if you don't withdraw $20 often enough they notice you doing it.
5. I seem to be playing a 16/12 style, which is VERY positional since I only open 55+ and AQ+ UTG, and steal near 35%.

Congrats on the big month Robb!! Man, you've come along way, kicking ass!

I guess its probably part of your game, but work in 4-bet bluffs at 100nl and keep your red line up nicely

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Congrats on the big month Robb!! Man, you've come along way, kicking ass!

I guess its probably part of your game, but work in 4-bet bluffs at 100nl and keep your red line up nicely

I did a bit of 4betting light at 50nl, but there weren't many occasions for it. I do see that change in my games, too, now I've moved up. But tossing in $25 on a hand you're really not wanting to show down is TOUGH. I'm getting a lot better at dealing with the money, tho. I don't cry any more when I stack off.

I reread your Thread 6 from the "Thoughts on beating micros" series the other day when I was putting together my 2k post. LoL. I believe I had the ability and skill set to beat the micros for a while, but never really applied myself. I had decided in early September 2008 to try developing my poker game to generate money like it was a part time job (at the time, I was thinking $200 / month would be awesome). Your post sort of triggered a review of my past 9 months of poker futility. I hadn't sat down and looked at a 50k break-even stretch of 10nl and thought about what that meant (other than "thank God for rakeback"). I thought I was a good hobbyist poker player. For the first time, I saw myself through others' eyes here at FTR, and the view was of a massive underachiever who wouldn't admit he sucked at poker.

In my defense, I do maths and statistical analysis at my real job, so learning poker is more like "work" than I'd prefer for a hobby, but as a part time job, it's a good bit of fun. I hope I can turn it into a monthly withdrawal process that helps provide a few extra bucks for the family budget. But that view (expressed most eloquently by redzilla a couple times) was largely correct.

I went from losing lifetime poker player in September 2007 to winning by early November, thanks mainly to FTR and working on my game a bit in late '07 (it seemed like a TON of work, at the time). I had never heard the term "bankroll management" and didn't even know rakeback existed until I read about it here, and I might have gone busto less with those $50 deposits every couple of months in early 2007 had I joined sooner. I didn't know about poker tracker or HUD's or how to use them. So FTR really helped me with the basics, not a tutorial, but watching people post HUD reads, HH's, session reviews, etc was eye-opening. That plus rakeback and I was winning a ton.

I continued improving through about February last year, but then spent 6 months in the poker wilderness for various reasons related to life and lack of poker effort. The best thing about your post was that it was right when I was ready to make a determined effort at working hard. Since I reacted well to your "horse to water" comment, I suppose, you offered a study plan, then checked in to make sure I had actually done the work, ID'd the leaks, and plugged them.

I guess that's the rest of the story behind the above graphs and descriptions of my progress. I initially started playing poker more because of my interest in Game Theory than an interest in making money or liking poker itself. I've gradually turned that into a real enjoyment of the game and excitement about learning the game, but also into a desire to BEAT the game the only way we keep score - by winning $$. It's funny that beating the game moves you up another level where more of the game can reveal itself in terms of strategy and game theory principles. So a focus on building the BR and leveling up actually meant more of the type of game theory understanding I was always interested in.

I have always hoped my journey might inspire others who come along behind me at FTR. And several who came along behind me are WAY on ahead, and nh to them. I'm pretty happy with how things have worked out for me with poker. But I have to thank guys like Fnord, spenda, Renton, spoony, mcatdog, jack vance, meeloche, miffed, daven, bbickes, rilla, bigred, nutshino, ISF, lukie, gabe, XTR, griffey and at least a dozen others. Their advice and posts have made me think better about poker.

FTR will help you not suck at poker, if you let it.

cool! 100nl reg Robb, nh.
I'm starting to learn 6-max, I beat 5nl yesterday, I'll beat 10nl today, move to 25nl tomorrow, and 50nl hopefully middle of the week. This all at another site, but if it feels good I may also switch my FT play to 6-max. So... i may see you at the tables! watch out for para and I...

Originally Posted by Robb

2. Thank Lee Jones for rakeback and bonuses!! Wow, it's amazing how fast the basically useless pennies of FT's iron man challenge build up, now. And buying things with FTP's is a ton easier now that the total is spinning up quickly. And rakeback, yeah, that's pretty sweet.

qfmft. March = $2k+ in rakeback, $500 in rake race (i lost ground the last day), plus about $200 equivalent in medals, + I've now got half a million FPPs but no idea what to do with them....

[quote="daven"I've now got half a million FPPs but no idea what to do with them....[/quote]
ship 'em to 4gooner4, imo :P

Not looking forward to bumping into you or para at 100nl, tho.

Robb great job. I must say you've sure been an encouragement to many of us micro grinders. Thanks for all your input and keep up the good work.

Originally Posted by Robb

Originally Posted by daven

I've now got half a million FPPs but no idea what to do with them....

ship 'em to 4gooner4, imo :P

Not looking forward to bumping into you or para at 100nl, tho.

A game, Robb. Play your A game.

I played A game poker Friday morning, up 1.5 BI at 100nl. Off to work, family comes home, have dinner, get kiddos to bed and I'm wasted tired. But I'm not sleepy and wanna play some poker. So I fire up 50nl, thinking my B game is fine there. I did certainly play B game poker, and dumped 3 BI's of 50nl, so like -$12 for the day.

In my defense, it wasn't total spew. I got dealt a cooler: PFR w/ KQ in the CO, call from BB. He has 22 and checks the K92 flop to me, and I cbet obv. Turn's a K and he check/calls. I call a river lead about half pot, so I don't quite stack off. The bad beat was KK < AKs 3bet pot where I flop a set and he has TPTK + BDFD. We race to the middle with our chips on the flop. Runner runner diamonds. Bye bye stack.

So maybe 1 BI of spew and some "cooling off" which I fully admit I deserve given the heater I've been on lately. But man, if I'm gonna play my B game maybe 25nl or lower is the place. Jeez.

Got up this morning and felt goot, so I played 100nl and won 3 BI. Haven't played tonight as Mom and Sis are visiting from out of town.

MTM's

Quite possibly the best thing about 100nl 6max is the MTM's (multi-tabling monkeys, if you didn't see that above). A couple of them have some major leaks, the worst of which is not being positionally aware. I've got 1k+ hands on two guys with roughly 25/18 stats who are opening like 16%+ with a PFR from UTG. That allows me to get in behind them with medium hands like 88 on a T647 board. Every now and then, maybe twice an hour, I can pick up $20 by just raising them off their two-barrel-air / one pair hand with a call flop, raise turn line. I try not to do it without equity, and I wait until I haven't mixed it up with them for a while. But it's so easy to get a great read on them, and they're NOT paying attention to anyone villain. So you can find one leak and exploit it for a few bucks every 5 or 6 orbits.

I use an HEM monkey avatar to mark them. One thing I do with my table layout when 4-tabling is cascade 3 tables on the right and pull a single table out to the left where I can follow all the action all the time. If I have an MTM at a table, I pull that table out and try to profile him, watch every line he takes and try to guess his HUD reads, ranges and why he's playing the way he is. Often, it's easy to see he has HUD stats 'cuz he shows down the exact exploitative (non-standard) line I've been trying to play against a fish. So I note that he reacts to HUD stats and try to figure out how he plays against another TAGG at the table. I run 16/12/3 or so, so I look for another person with those stats and see what I can figure out. That switch from a passive line to a big raise really crosses them up, especially when they're oop. They see my stats, give me credit, and fold a hand that has at least 6 outs and is probably ahead.

Rakeback is nice at 100nl. I've got more than $100 of rakeback coming to me this week, with another day or two to grind (though I won't play much 'cuz the fam's in town). I'm a little over 2.9k bankroll, up 6 BI's minus my 50nl losses. About ten days ago I was break-even for April and just below 2k in roll.

Poker sure can be a joy ride. I'm hoping my game has stabilized enough at 100nl to ride out the nasty times that I'll surely face sometime soon, coolers and downswings and whatever. I feel like if I can get to 3.5k I could start opening up my game a bit from my 16/12 and include more hands that are surely profitable. But I'm staying uber-TAGG for now so I can play really strong and agro postflop and not get weak-tight.

Oh, yeah, and I'm thinking about hosting a group sweat session at 50nl sometime in the next couple of weeks. I will post a thread in the BC when I figure out when I might be able to get it done. I think it will benefit some folks at 25nl and below, though I am a bit nervous about whether or not there's an EV in listening to my thoughts about poker. I'm still learning a ton, and hate about a quarter of the turn/river spots I bet my way into, and really have trouble sorting out what to do.

I'd be up for the sweat session if it fits with where I am/whatever I'm doing.

Originally Posted by Robb

I could start opening up my game a bit from my 16/12 and include more hands that are surely profitable. But I'm staying uber-TAGG for now so I can play really strong and agro postflop and not get weak-tight..

wow. 16-12, and it works.

I'm a spew-monkey trying to learn 6-max and running 23-18 with 6% 3-bet - maybe i should tighten up and play more tables!!! (8-tabling for the moment)

Poker life is good. I finished last night's session at $3k bankroll plus loose change. I feel like I've settled in at 100nl and that I'm understanding the game a ton better. There are some reasons for that:

1. I probably do understand the game better, since I worked hard at learning to play "precision TAGG" poker, so I'm learning to exploit "non-optimal" ranges/lines/tendencies.

2. I have always read stuff from the guys way above where I was playing (ISF, etc), and tons of stuff I read has suddenly explained itself to me (i.e. I'm playing in games where it matters).

3. I'm better at putting people on ranges.

Now ranges brings up an interesting point I'm jonesing about. How much of what we learn do we post in the forums? Doesn't it just make the games harder? I used to wonder this, but I just posted a GREAT freakin' "how to practice ranges" thread with several ideas the micro-grinders around here could use effectively to learn to do this better. Post got no love, except from Daven, who noted its value and put some thoughts about the way he groups/organizes hands.

So I'm thinking: wft?? Do these micro-grinders not see value in the thread? And the answer, I guess, is that they know they should do it but are (a) too lazy or (b) don't feel capable. But whatever the root cause, you can post your whole "game" here on FTR and no one's ever gonna exploit you at the tables 'cuz the guys who could actually exploit you can do it just fine without "stalking" your posts and the guys who can't don't bother reading/applying high quality posts from me or from anyone else. LoL.

The funniest thing about the "Range Practice" thread was IOPQ jumping in trying to pwn it. That's funny on several levels, since it was intended for noobies, since he took my learning-theory inspired "chunking" idea and shattered a 2 chunk range into 182,712 pieces, and since his preflop range didn't include the fairly obvious hand(s) that showed down.

I think a lot of regs around here put villains on their own range too often. You have to put villains on the VILLAIN's range. IOPQ seems to often skew his estimates of villain ranges toward a "thinking players' range," but I'm not finding tons of strong, well-thought-out ranges in these players at 100nl. They're better at playing whatever hands they play, but sometimes not very thoughtful about what they open, what they flat and what they 3bet.

Some things I'm currently working on:

1. Preflop 3bet/4bet pots, especially squeeze scenarios. I've been reading a lot of Spoon's old threads and some classic 3bet threads from the short-handed forum. There a good few regs with WIDE squeeze ranges, and I'm trying to think about the best EV ways to attack them. Seems like half the raise-calls get squeezed from the blinds some nights. Everyone's doing it, and almost no one who squeezes and gets 4-bet continues (including me).

2. Preflop 3bet ranges. There's a lot more 3betting light, so I'm trying to determine when I have enough HH's to estimate the 3bet% accurately by position and where the break points are that show various portions of "lightness."

3. TAGG-reg wars. I know this is coming. I've seen it during other moves up / site switches. You pwn a level for a while until the regs get reads on you. Then your win rate tails off (or even goes negative) and you adjust to their adjustments. So I'm waiting for it. I'm viewed as nitty, and my raises get plenty of respect. But I'm winning. If I stop getting much action preflop (and that trend has begun somewhat), then I'll need to change some things and open up a bit. I'm ready for it, just hoping to get to 3.5k in roll before I'm forced to adjust much away from my 16/12/3 style.

4. Adjustments are different than I suspected they would be - I just reread Sauce's 6max guide (though it's a bit dated since we have 3bet/4bet stats), and the FTR icons in that thread have some interesting ideas about how to exploit different TAGG-regs. I can "open up" still playing a 17/14 style by 3betting more, 4betting more and by raising more on the flop. If I have a strong perceived range, I should be able to get more value out of later streets with bluffs. So you can either adjust to try to pick up blinds more (the typical 25/18 TAGG-reg approach at 100nl, it seems), or you can adjust to get into bigger pots with a strong, playable range and aggress a bit more postflop where the potential pots are huge. It's interesting to think about where to look for value against TAGG-regs - on all streets, obv, but where can I get most value for effort?

I hope to get another session this afternoon, maybe some more poker tonight. We'll have to see.

I posted this in the BC in a thread asking about the difference between FR and 6max and kinda liked it. So I'll quote it here so I can find it someday (hopefully):

Originally Posted by Robb

The essential difference is that 6max has fewer seats at the table. I know you think I'm being a wiseass, but that's all there is. Fewer seats at the table makes for three key strategic implications:

1. The BTN comes around faster.
2. Position changes faster.
3. There are fewer starting combos dealt each hand.

I know you're rolling your eyes, but think about what each of these things means. Sir Pawn is right about the cost/hand, but let's face it: EVERY piece of info out there about 6max talks about the blinds "coming around faster" and how that means you have play more hands. Thus, the game appeals to the action-hounds who happily just play 10% more hands from every position. But the fact the blinds come around faster is almost irrelevant. Everyone is equally disadvantaged by the blinds.

The key to beating 6max is to maximally profit from the BTN and CO coming around faster.

That's the point of #2 that most people miss. The person who wins most at 6max is the one who can play each position at the table differently, adjusting more to opponents/position. Most 6m regs only understand position in terms of "stealing more" from the BTN and (sometimes) the CO/SB. There's more to the power of position than blind steals, and we can profit from understanding position and using it better (even EP!! / oop) than our opponents do.

Most 6m regs seem to misinterpret #3 as meaning "fewer great hands are out against you," and therefore they just "open up" from all positions and play more hands. They weaken their range. But the reason #3 is vital is because we end up in HU pots much more routinely in 6m than in FR. So when our opponents just play more loosely, but fail to adjust to the essential nature of the game, they give us real opportunities to make precision reads on their game and play a "optimal exploiting game" against them.

In FR, you manage to isolate less, and you can't play exploitative lines against single opponents as often. With fewer seats at 6m, you get a chance to play HU nearly every time you see a flop. So reads and non-standard exploitative lines become extremely valuable.

And that relates to #2: we can more easily play exploitative lines when in position. And our ability to specifically adjust to various opponents from different positions and PLAY VERY DIFFERENTLY AGAINST EACH ONE stems from the fact that there are fewer seats at the table.

Nice work on reaching 3k roll robb! I haven't had a chance to thoroughly read through your Practicing Ranges thread yet, but I will be doing so at work today. (I'm a security guard at an empty factory, so plenty of time lol.) I'm also hoping to get in some of that range stuff you put in my blog.

Keep pwning those 100nl donks man, you're doing great.

Originally Posted by dranger7070

Nice work on reaching 3k roll robb! I haven't had a chance to thoroughly read through your Practicing Ranges thread yet, but I will be doing so at work today. (I'm a security guard at an empty factory, so plenty of time lol.) I'm also hoping to get in some of that range stuff you put in my blog.

Keep pwning those 100nl donks man, you're doing great.

I'm down 3.5 BI today, but the grind's not over. KK stackoff as over pair against set of 2's (yes, he called 3bet w/ 22, make note). I'm down 2 BI 'cuz of about half a BI of spew and another hand where I got rivered. Then I get AA < KK all-in preflop. Down 3 BI. Then just float around there. So I'm off the heater, but still feelin' good about 100nl. Shouldn't have bragged. That always flips the doomswitch.

Have i run into you yet on FT?

Dunno. If you're XTR100 there, then I don't think so. I'm "4gooner4" SN on FT.

One of those good news bad news posts.

Bad news: yesterday I was down 5.5 BI's after two sessions. Not playing horribly, but not my share of premium hands or sets. Every TPGK hand running into something decent. Meh. I spewed at least a BI, tho, maybe 1.5, so that's on me.

Good news: today I'm up 8 BI's, my biggest single day of cash game poker winnings ever. BR ~ 3.3k, confidence back. Sure, it was mostly positive variance. Stats are 1k hands, 44 ptBB/100 win rate, 41 ptBB/100 EV. So yeah, mostly heater. It's nice when the downswings are short and followed by heaters.

I read this in BJsaust's OP:

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Things are going well, just two short sessions so far this month (was away for the weekend) but up well over 2.5 buyins from them. Roll is sitting at 2670 and poker life is good.

nice!
keep on keeping on

I'm interested in this, i'm going to write a theory post a month for a while - mostly to get my ideas critiqued. This medium strength hands thing is important, we all know how to shove the nuts and check middle pair behind on the river - but...

Originally Posted by bjsaust

I think I'm also doing a much better job of getting value from my medium strength hands, with a minimum of spew (although tbh I've made some dubious call downs where I was probably lucky rather than good when it turns out villains were bluffing).

First, nh to Ben, who moved up to 100nl just before I did. I am damn glad Ben doesn't play on FT :P

Second, I would be interested to see Daven posting monthly theory articles. I've learned a lot from both these guys. It seems the discussions in their op threads often are beyond my abilities to comment on, but I strongly recommend both op threads for helping those 25nl and 50nl guys to think better about poker.

8 buyins? Wow, thats an $800 day. Dwarfs my best day Robb. Awesome job.

OK, so I don't wanna complain about heaters, since I've been on one more or less for three weeks. But here's the problem:

Am I really a winning 100nl 6max poker player?

I've benefited so much from awesome variance that it's hard to tell if I'm actually beating the game without all the help. Here's my graph for the first 8k hands at 100nl:



Everything about the graph spells heater. The 7 ptBB/100 win rate, the 9 ptBB/100 EV, the steadily increasing red line.

So that gets you worrying that when the heat dissipates, you'll be left lost and alone with your actual 2 ptBB/100 win rate and not enough game to move up to 200nl.

Oh, well, gonna assume I'm gettin' better and just enjoy the ride. I'm doing better this year than I ever thought I would, so quit worrying, keep working and learn to beat this game, amiright?

Lol. At worst you're building up a nice buffer to help you ride out the negative variance later and give you time to work on your game if you're not there yet. Dont worry too much about heatering, just enjoy it.

Red line is pretty amazing, you're one of the few players on FTR with it positive like that, and I really wouldnt have expected it from your game (since its usually related to aggression and you talk about playing a bit nitty so far).

You're up around $1050? And running 3 buyins below EV? Thats good numbers. Obviously the big spike from 7k to 8k helps, but then again if you posted this at around 6.4k hands you wouldnt be talking about heaters.

$1k day please. C'mon already.

Originally Posted by Robb

Am I really a winning 100nl 6max poker player?

probably.

Originally Posted by Robb

So that gets you worrying that when the heat dissipates, you'll be left lost and alone with your actual 2 ptBB/100 win rate and not enough game to move up to 200nl.

then simply withdraw $500 a week until you feel ready ez game

HOLY SHIT

Welcome to mid stakes.

I find it really interesting how much you talk about beating up robotic players. Other than a couple spots, I pretty much ignore them and just bum hunt. Then again, I hardly bother with the current online games, not enough bums to hunt.

My gameplan:
o Find the spot at the table
o Take position on him.
o When he enters the pot or posts a blind find an excuse not to fold. Better yet jack it up.
o Figure out what post-flop mistakes the spot is making (not hard when he's in nearly half the pots at the table.)
o Exploit ruthlessly. Be aware of when the spot decides to "adjust" to you. Gear it down if you have aware regs properly re-exploiting you back.
o Profit.

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Red line is pretty amazing, you're one of the few players on FTR with it positive like that, and I really wouldnt have expected it from your game (since its usually related to aggression and you talk about playing a bit nitty so far).

I was playing nitty preflop so I could stay aggressive postflop. I started out the first 4k hands or so running 16/12. I'm a bit more like 20/15 atm which is closer to how I played at 25nl and 50nl (and probably due to 15% premium cards in that last 1k hands). I guess I'm winning my share postflop (raising on the turn when they appear from board/position to have auto-cbet air, etc) and getting out of the way in obvious spots. Dunno.

Originally Posted by Fnord

HOLY SHIT

Welcome to mid stakes.

I find it really interesting how much you talk about beating up robotic players. Other than a couple spots, I pretty much ignore them and just bum hunt. Then again, I hardly bother with the current online games, not enough bums to hunt.

My gameplan:
o Find the spot at the table
o Take position on him.
o When he enters the pot or posts a blind find an excuse not to fold. Better yet jack it up.
o Figure out what post-flop mistakes the spot is making (not hard when he's in nearly half the pots at the table.)
o Exploit ruthlessly. Be aware of when the spot decides to "adjust" to you. Gear it down if you have aware regs properly re-exploiting you back.
o Profit.

Ya know, I'm starting to get this. After that hand I posted in the short-handed forum w/ JTs 3-way with a big feesh in, I thought about your comments and have tried to work harder and finding and getting into pots with the 45/15 types.

I think 50nl is a TAGG-reg convention on FT, the place where all the half-decent grinders from all over the world come to hang out. If you can't beat the TAGG-fish at 50nl on FT, you won't move up to 100nl. Interesting that 100nl opens back up. The TAGG-regs are 25/18 instead of 18/16, and the feesh are back up over 40/10 and such.

Anyway, the key thing to winning so much last night was doing what you said. I found a mark on each table, generally either one or two seats to my right, and just profited from learning where they'd fold and what they'd carry to showdown. One table had two side-by-side immediately to my right, just passing the chips down to my stack. TYVM.

So thanks, I've been hearing ya, fnord, and I'm trying to develop that skill you speak of.

Edited the right/left mistake in bold.

Robb, check pms homey. lulz

Had a long session last night - about 4 hours. Some good things from the sessions.

1. Played 5 tables for some of the session, and found that it's sometimes still just that bit too much but within my capabilities when I'm really "on" mentally. Playing fewer tables allows me to really exploit every player on each table, but 5 had me playing "robotic poker" on some hands. I didn't spew, but I think I need to go back to 4 for a few thousand more hands. Too much advantage on the TAGG-fish who are playing metronome poker and on the donk-fish who play non-standard lines and totally telegraph their hand strength at least half the time.

2. Played a long session without too much drop-off in effectiveness. Because of my lifestyle, poker usually comes in 45 - 90 minute sessions. So playing 4 hours with a few short breaks and keeping on my A game was good.

3. I was down 2 BI overall, but I didn't play badly. I was stuck for as much as 4 BI's, then back up and then stuck for 3.5 BI. I just played the game, not really getting much help from the deck, and finished strong. I must admit to being impressed with the guys who can grind poker 7 or 8 hours a day. Playing your best game that length of time must be really difficult. I have no trouble playing and staying on my game when things go my way, but when I'm not winning I wanna just quit playing.

4. Got my weekly rakeback for my first full week at 100nl: $120. That was 4-tabling but playing a lot. So it would be nice to be 5-tabling and add 20% to that total.

5. I've been rereading a lot of classic FTR content to try to help my game. ISF, fnord, nutsinho, spoony, etc. I get a ton more out of each thread these days since I'm not hopeless at ranges.

Some things I need to do:

1. Better/more session reviews.

2. More range practice, especially when reviewing the big hands from previous sessions.

3. Stop letting certain posters on FTR tilt me.

Last night's session was good - 2.5k hands over 4 hours, +3BI's. After midnight, when all the short-stacked, fully tanked feesh join up, the game gets a bit crazy. I need to do better attacking all the fish. One problem I have is that I raise to isolate, get called by a TAGG behind me who wants a shot at the fish, too, then the fish folds and I'm oop with a marginal hand against a TAGG-reg. Oops. But I'm getting better at adjusting to the various types of situations and profiting regardless of conditions.

I was reading the first couple pages of my op thread this morning, and then I read Ben's recent post in his thread:

Originally Posted by bjsaust

Over time though, the list of things I want to buy eventually have grown, and started to include more expensive items, so my goals have changed. Likewise where I think I can get to has changed. $1k per month is a fairly easy target at 100nl (if you're a winning player there), but I'm hoping to become a winning 200, and even 400nl player. If I do, that should mean I look at earning more like 2-4k per month at poker.

In March of '08, I was jonesing about "my worst day of poker EVER." I had lost $107. lulz. Just a buy-in these days.

I set a goal back in September 2008, as the economy tanked and I looked at ways to increase my earning capability without quitting my job which I like a lot. I wanted to work on my game and get to the point that I was withdrawing $200 per month from poker. Like Ben, I got there without really noticing, and my current goal is to be able to withdraw $500 per month starting in July. Those are minimums - I'll withdraw more if there's a good opportunity.

Now I'm not thinking about buying beer and chips for my mates on Fridays during Happy Hour. I'm thinking about car payments.

I believe $500 a month is very doable at 100nl, but like Ben I'm serious about improving enough to take my shot at 200nl. Dunno about 400nl. Not really a goal right now. With a $8k - 10k bankroll, I could generate a nice additional income at 200nl. I'll probably set my withdrawal amount once I'm stable at 200nl and if things go well, take my shots higher as the bankroll dictates.

So those are my goals right now. I wonder what they'll be a year from now? I think most importantly for me is to keep withdrawing a bit every month so that winning at poker generates spend-able monees.

All right, guys, help me out on some HH's from the last couple of session reviews. The first two HH's are pretty bad, imo. Hands 3 and 4 are really more line checks.

Hand 1. Villain is Laggy, and 3bet 2 of 7 times he had the BTN and a chance to do it. Only 75 hands, but he's got a wide range. I feel like I played this HORRIBLE preflop and flop, turn is meh.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($100.00)
UTG 1 ($105.00)
Hero (CO) ($145.65)
BTN ($83.90)
SB ($111.40)
BB ($62.65)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN raises to $10.90, 2 folds, Hero calls $7.40

Flop: ($23.30, 2 players)
Hero bets $13, BTN calls $13

Turn: ($49.30, 2 players)
Hero bets $25, BTN folds


Hand 2. Villain is 29/12/3.5 w/ only 2% 3bets over 100 hands. This 4bet is strong, and I don't like flatting it oop. Folding seems bad, but 5bet?

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($110.90)
CO ($167.75)
BTN ($162.95)
SB ($97.75)
Hero (BB) ($113.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BB
UTG raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero raises to $9.50, UTG raises to $30, Hero raises to $70

I'm not folding to a shove now. I felt like the 5bet to $70 seemed stronger than a shove, like I'm luring him in with AA. But I wouldn't have posted it if I liked how played it.


Hand 3. This one I like. Villain is 70/30 laggy, but only 10 HH's. I thought while playing it about what Ben said a couple days ago in my whales thread - against these guys, you've gotta go with a decent hand and just get the chips in. You can't wait around for a "sure thing" hand to take their stack. The read was OK, 'cuz he'd made a really poor postflop decision 2 hands earlier. So I'm thinking the "laggy whale" read is reasonable.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($152.75)
UTG 1 ($100.55)
CO ($102.35)
Hero (BTN) ($100.00)
SB ($73.00)
BB ($99.55)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN
3 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50, 2 players)
BB bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50

Turn: ($22.50, 2 players)
BB bets $22.50, Hero goes all-in $89, BB goes all-in $66.05

River: ($200.05, 2 players)

Final Pot: $199.60
Hero shows:
BB shows:


Hand 4. SB is 30/25 and UTG is 35/25, both agro. I like my 15x implied odds preflop. Question is flop. Just shove at this point? Or call. I shoved 'cuz the board was drawy and I didn't want a scare card shutting down all the action on the turn.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($137.70)
UTG 1 ($100.00)
CO ($367.00)
BTN ($100.15)
Hero (SB) ($216.90)
BB ($132.05)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is SB
UTG raises to $3.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $3, BB raises to $15, UTG calls $11.50, Hero calls $11.50

Flop: ($45, 3 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $26, UTG calls $26, Hero raises to $98, BB goes all-in $117.05, UTG folds, Hero calls $19.05

Turn: ($305.10, 2 players)

River: ($305.10, 2 players)

Final Pot: $305.10
Hero shows:
BB shows:

Nice river for me - quads are fun.

I'm just posting to get some conversation/arguments/agreeableness going. So:

1. It seems like we are basically only trying to get his PP < AA to fold, no? Like if he has AK/AQ/AJ/AT he's never folding to two barrels and probably not three, right? Regardless of that turn putting another heart on there. I love the bet sizing as I think any bet size ~half pot and more will get the same amount of folds/calls. Also, preflop is somewhat interesting I guess since we don't have too many hands on him but I don't think it's bad. Are you semi-bluffing many flops with two overs?

2. I'd have to see his 3betting calling ranges but I guess you could flat preflop to strengthen your OOP range as I'm sure he fires most flops and we can safely at least c/c. As played, can't really see any other play but to just ship it in. You don't have many reads, tons of dead money, etc.

3. No comment

4. Definitely shove. You're dominating UTG's range now who might still ship it in and you still dominate BB stack off range.

1. Problem here is your hand is basically 23o postflop. So, I like the idea, but we have very little equity when called. I think you got lucky and folded a JJ-KK type hand here, possibly a weak Ax. I get torn on these, I kind of like just picking spots and going for it, but every good player I see post about bluffs always likes at least some equity.

2. Sucky spot. 3 bet obviously fine, folding sucks. I think against his range this is probably bad. See the analysis I did a while back in my blog, this has less overlay and much less chance of bluffs/weaker hands. Calling pf is fine too, just be prepared to play some guessing games.

3. Yeah, I like this, although I'd probably call turn, call all rivers. K might have improved him but its really not that scary. Also again, this time if you're behind you have possible outs which makes it better.

4. Easy easy shove. Really dont want to give free cards with both opps showing interest in the hand.

Consider opening for only 3x

#1 I usually c/f flop, as you´ll get floated a lot. Few aces in ur range, fewer you´d not c/c or c/r. Im lost on turn, Im a c/r monkey in these spots. In general playing 3bet pots oop is costly and change seat >>> elaborate a smart 4betting strat > beginning to flat oop.

#2 Rarely do I 3bet UTG opener and almost never from the blinds. You look ridicolously (sp?) strong and allow him to play perfect. Also, just 5ball shove, idk why you want to "look strong" or why you think it makes a difference to him now that he 4bet someone who 3bet an utg opener oop.

#3 idk, I like a call on turn. Our draw splits a lot and we have little FE vs this guy.

#4 ldo

I appreciate the help.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Consider opening for only 3x

definitely think about this.
Spend a while debating opening for more in EP (with a stronger range etc) vs from LP. Then consider the implications re playing bigger pots oop, and how this relates to playing that strong pre-flop multi-way, etc...
hitting bet pot to steal has a nice ring to it, but is unlikely to be optimal. Also, when you have a strong hand it means that stroppy small blind is even more likely to over-3-bet their KJs

Originally Posted by daven

Originally Posted by Fnord

Consider opening for only 3x

definitely think about this.
Spend a while debating opening for more in EP (with a stronger range etc) vs from LP. Then consider the implications re playing bigger pots oop, and how this relates to playing that strong pre-flop multi-way, etc...
hitting bet pot to steal has a nice ring to it, but is unlikely to be optimal. Also, when you have a strong hand it means that stroppy small blind is even more likely to over-3-bet their KJs

Will do.

I've experimented pretty widely with preflop theory. I recently switched back to open = amts (all positions) and decided on 3.5x. I've tried 3x and 4x and various differential openings, too. I'm definitely willing to think it through.