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Hand 1 for review:
$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
2 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
SB Hero ($58.40)
BB marcizzz707 ($48.40)
Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) Hero is SB  
Hero raises to $1.50, marcizzz707 raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1
Flop:    ($5, 2 players)
marcizzz707 bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50
Turn:  ($6, 2 players)
marcizzz707 bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50
River:  ($7, 2 players)
marcizzz707 bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50
Final Pot: $14
Villain in this hand is super loose, pretty aggro preflop (min re-raising alot) but is very passive postflop and also a HUGE station (has called ten high on river to a sizable bet when he missed his draw, doesn't bet much etc. He has shown A3o in a min re-raised pot, so I think it's safe to say on the river he can have A2-AK.
This is the first time I have seen him take this line (he bet/called the flop with 84 no pair no draw before though it wasn't a re-raised pot) so I decided to just call down given the sweet price, and I could be good here fairly often. I'd probably raise AQ/AK for value on the flop if I happen to call pre, though I'm most likely 4betting these hands.
On the river it looks a lot like he's value betting an ace. If he hit AJ on the turn I think I can assume he'd just bet it bigger. As for having 9x, it's possible, and perhaps I should include just a few combos in his range. Though when he bets the river this size I feel as though he usually just has one pair or is bluffing the ace, if he had a boat/trips he would likely get excited and bet really big - which seems to be quite typical of these players.
Here I will assume his range for betting the river is only Ax without AJ or A9:
Board: 9d 5s 9h Jh Ac
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.474% 00.00% 39.47% 0 30.00 { As7c }
Hand 1: 60.526% 21.05% 39.47% 16 30.00 { AQs+, ATs, A8s-A2s, AQo+, ATo, A8o-A2o }
We have about 40% equity vs this range and we only need about 25% to call [bet/bet+pot = 3.5/(3.5+10.5], so it becomes a clear call.
Okay now what if he bets AJ and A9 like this?
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.884% 00.00% 34.88% 0 30.00 { As7c }
Hand 1: 65.116% 30.23% 34.88% 26 30.00 { A2s+, A2o+ }
What is interesting to note is our equity barely changes when he now has AJ and A9 in his range (combinatorics ftw!) and we should still call it off.
Adding T9s and 98s into his range still gives us roughly 33% equity, and given the amount of KT type hands he could be turning into a bluff on this river (or Jx hands that he thinks he is value betting) this is a pretty trivial call.
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Operation: TRIPLE D
Originally Posted by daven
And why are you playing $50NL? Haven't you won a bazilion buy-ins @ $100NL and several @ $200NL, too? If you really want to "work on your game", why not play 4 to 6 tables @ $100NL?
