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1. KQs:
J65r flop is great vs the reg in the blinds. His range will be extremely weak even if he hits because a lot of his range is 77-TT. He probably doesn’t have many Jx hands in his range besides AJ and QJs. I do not think he flats with KJs but that can be debated.
The problem is the fish running 54/3. He has folded 1/3 times to a flop cbet. He’s really aggressive (raises/bets flop 12/17 times so far) so I really do not think he has air. I don’t have any specific reads on this computer (I transferred my HH to my laptop) so for now we’ll assume that he’s the opposite of a TAG. He’ll bet/raise his air and draws and flat his strong hands.
On the turn I pick up some nice nut equity plus I feel like I may have at least a little bit of FE. Once he minraises the turn he most definitely has at least two pair IMO. Easy call due to pot odds and feeling like he’ll call in shove on the river if I hit a heart or T.
After reviewing my play with CardRunnersEV, it is +EV on all streets as long as on any heart or T river he calls my all-in. Because I have him pegged on a really strong hand I think this is pretty much the case. If I make it so he only calls like 80% of the time then it’s still +EV.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($25.35)
Hero (MP) ($25)
Button ($42.60)
SB ($25)
BB ($31.49)
Preflop: Hero is MP with K , Q
1 fold, Hero bets $0.85, Button calls $0.85, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold
Flop: ($2.80) J, 6 , 5 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.50, Button calls $1.50, 1 fold
Turn: ($5.80) A (2 players)
Hero bets $4, Button raises to $8, Hero calls $4
River: ($21.80) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $21.80, Hero folds
Total pot: $21.80 | Rake: $1.09
2. KJo:
This hand is weird. Obviously I rep barely anything but a flush draw but at these stakes it is easier to get Regs off of hands. He’s playing 21/21 over a few hands and has raised the BU 2/3 times so far. His smallish raise makes me think he’s a reg.
Anyways, this flop barely hits a BU stealer. Let’s say he’s stealing 44% (which is probably too tight) and his range is AA-22,AKo-A2o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J8o,T9o-T8o,98o-97o,87o,76o,65o,54o,AKs-A2s,KQs-K7s,QJs-Q9s,JTs-J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s-64s,54s,43s, then he hits air/A-hi 72% of the time on this board. Seeing the Q is a lot better than seeing an A/K/J/T fwiw given that range.
Keep in mind that he was pretty agro on flops so once he flatted I felt like he didn’t have many draws as he’d most likely reship but I could be wrong. He can definitely have a full house or quads as well as his most likely holding of TPGK+. On the turn I hit what looks to be showdown equity but probably not given what range I think he’s on. I decide to bluff it with a draw to the second nut flush as well as 2 Jack outs. If his most likely holding is TP then I hope I can get some FE for it.
Once he flats my turn bet I know he has something extremely good and the hand is over.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($25)
Hero (BB) ($26.05)
UTG ($34.32)
MP ($9.20)
CO ($25)
Button ($25)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J , K
3 folds, Button bets $0.60, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.35
Flop: ($1.30) 4, Q, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $0.70, Hero raises to $2.50, Button calls $1.80
Turn: ($6.30) J (2 players)
Hero bets $4, Button calls $4
River: ($14.30) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $8, Hero folds
Total pot: $14.30 | Rake: $0.71
3. 99:
I felt like I could some value on the flop and he can fold a ton of hands and what not which is why I think in a vacuum cbetting the flop is +EV.
On the turn, I tend to b/f a lot but this is just dumb. His range on that board is very tight. All of his TPs beat me and I only beat very few combos of middle pairs. He can also have straights and two pairs. After stoving, I think c/f is by far the best play.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
20,856 games 0.007 secs 2,979,428 games/sec
Board: Th 8c 5h 6c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.883% 30.09% 00.79% 6276 165.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 69.117% 68.33% 00.79% 14250 165.00 { JJ-99, ATs, A8s, KTs, QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, ATo, A8o, KTo, QTo, JTo }
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Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($55.17)
Hero (SB) ($25.76)
BB ($35.57)
UTG ($43.69)
MP ($27.32)
CO ($28.60)
Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9
4 folds, Hero bets $0.75, BB calls $0.50
Flop: ($1.50) 10, 5, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25
Turn: ($4) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, BB raises to $7.50, Hero folds
Total pot: $9 | Rake: $0.45
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
PS I feel like I should write something about poker but tbh I had a virus on my laptop when I was on vacation so haven't been able to really study much. Plus just been really busy and a buddy of mine had his bachelor's party today in which I only went to the morning part (golf). I'm hoping to study/play early next week but Wed-Fri I'll be gone again for Thanksgiving in Charlotte, NC. Speaking of NC...HAHAHAHAHA UNC.!!!! And a big bball game vs. Georgetown tomorrow! My gf's good friend is on their team so she's rooting against us but mehhhhh go Wolfpack!
