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Originally Posted by OngBonga
So I can keep track of my progress, or lack of. And it's not quite zero readership. I might or might not get some conversation in here from the few regs we have left, but ultimately I just want somewhere to keep notes without talking poker in the commune.
Fair.
Originally Posted by OngBonga
It's not. I'm unskilled, best I can hope to earn is something like £16k a year, and after tax that's in the same ball park as £1k a month tax free. It helps that I'm in the UK and don't have to pay tax on my cash outs. Also, I hate working for other people. I want to be self reliant and enjoy my life.
£16k = £1,200 per month after tax. And you work 80 hours less per month for it.
Originally Posted by OngBonga
First of all, your assumption of 10nl is wrong. I'm playing 50nl 10bb short stack games. You would be correct to assume that I am strictly speaking insufficiently bankrolled for the stakes, but here's my thought process... A week ago, I had £50 in my account. I was watching these games that I now play, seeing how bad they were, and knew I could make money. So I thought, what's £50? If I lose it, it's not going to be the difference between eating and not. But, if I run at least average to begin with, I should do ok. So over the next four days, I won £400. Now I understand that 4 days of poker is not enough to "go pro", hence me using the word "try". But I also strongly believe that what makes or breaks my success is basically dodging particularly bad luck for the first few months as I build my bankroll.
On this basis, you are not "going pro" - you are taking quite a wild stab at something. Your risk of ruin is obviously extremely high shortstacking 50NL with £450 behind, which strangely you seem to realise. "Going pro" is to start a career in your chosen field.... this is not starting a career, it's practically a novelty challenge.
Originally Posted by OngBonga
I have no idea what my bb winrate is per 100 hands, but it's a lot more than 3bb per 100 hands.
I'm playing anything between 1 and 4 tables. I've played probably five hours of poker a day for five days to earn around £500, so let's break that down. That works out of £20 an hour, that's 40bb.
25 hours of 4 tabling means you've played about 6,000 hands (probably less since you mention you're not always 4 tabling). Sounds like you're running really well too, but doesn't need saying that this is not a sample size worth discussing anything about at all. As a long term venture, you can probably expect your winrate shortstacking 50NL to level out at about 1 BB/100 if you're a decent enough poker player (lower than my first post as both playing a harder game and shortstacking will vastly increase your variance and decrease your winrate).
I'm not being an arsehole for the sake of being an arsehole, I'm just trying to give some perspective. I think you're only using the term "going pro" because it sounds cool, and not because you actually are. You're taking a shot with a small bankroll in a high variance game to which you are adding extra variance by shortstacking. Anyone who knows anything about the maths behind poker will tell you that you are going to go bust.
Play within your bankroll limits, don't shortstack, get a job, and then maybe as you organically move up through the limits you could consider jacking the job in if it ever becomes justifiable to.
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