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  1. #76
    I think I'd replace one point of your bluff catching rules.

    1. How strong does he think his range is? (I would replace this with does he think I will fold. If he thinks you will fold is already based on other factors you've already mentioned.)

    and I like specifically comparing it to

    2. How strong is his range?

    As well as the other two points you made.

    I find that this kind of analysis is very useful. The more 1 > 2, the more inclined I am to call.

    For example, lets say we are playing an opponent heads up that checks back Ace high. Opponent has triple barreled a run out of Q72 flop, A turn, T river. In this situation its unlikely that opponent realizes that because he checks behind Aces on the flop that his range is weaker than it appears in this situation. This would be a situation where I would call down the 3 barrel a lot.
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  2. #77
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan View Post
    I think I'd replace one point of your bluff catching rules.

    1. How strong does he think his range is? (I would replace this with does he think I will fold. If he thinks you will fold is already based on other factors you've already mentioned.)

    and I like specifically comparing it to

    2. How strong is his range?

    As well as the other two points you made.

    I find that this kind of analysis is very useful. The more 1 > 2, the more inclined I am to call.

    For example, lets say we are playing an opponent heads up that checks back Ace high. Opponent has triple barreled a run out of Q72 flop, A turn, T river. In this situation its unlikely that opponent realizes that because he checks behind Aces on the flop that his range is weaker than it appears in this situation. This would be a situation where I would call down the 3 barrel a lot.
    Thanks for the points ISF. That's an interesting example of a spot where villains perception of their own range strength is much greater than their true range strength.

    Though I can't think of many other spots where ppl have such a wide gap between the two, for 1>2.

    I've definitely seen ppl try to run river bluffs in spots where the flop is Axx and they check back as PFR (3b pot or single raised pot), call a turn bet and then go crazy raising on a river K , clearly thinking "I would play KK exactly the same way", when that is a small part of their turn calling range overall.

    I think that's also something I've been noticing with my small bet sizing OOP. People calling down very small bets and then bluffing on rivers when I check. They think their range include strong hands or hands that would bet big, but in practice if they aren't putting in a raise over two small bets, they will likely more often than not go for SD on the river. So when they bet, their range is a lot weaker than they think it is.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  3. #78
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I feel like i RARELY see ppl check back here with overpairs though in these games. Do you?
    No I don't, but this is a great board to do it on and own your extremely exploitable strategy (by exploitable I don't mean bad in any way).


  4. #79
    Micro2Macro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    M2M - You think it's crippling to keep track of this? I find it kind of motivating to think that if I fix some consistent leaks in my game I could be up $3ish k more per month, no? I suppose if after 12 months I was still at breakeven really, and avoidable was at like $50-60k, then the message would just be that this isn't for me and I should quit


    P4's - the 4b hand. I def agree that he could have Jx. I feel like i RARELY see ppl check back here with overpairs though in these games. Do you?
    yeah I just think focusing energy on numbers can be draining. like no matter how good we get at poker we will always have some leaks to fix, and also figuring out what losses are avoidable and what aren't is subjective. If you find it helps motivate you though then continue, since we all have our own personal ways of keeping on track
  5. #80
    CBAT's Avatar
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    The one thing about avoidable losses is that they are completely results oriented. Eh?
  6. #81
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Been playing well the last few days. Have kept up my notepad idea of tracking how many times I 3bet each person. Even if I can reasonably remember it, I think tracking it forces me to really think about the dynamic I'm creating and it also prevents me from rampant 3betting garbage if the timing isn't right.

    I have a few hands but i'll post them in SHNL.

    Been also doing a good job of keeping avoidable losses in check.

    Winnings on the year: -$1355
    Avoidable losses on the year: $5,500
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  7. #82
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I have a few hands but i'll post them in SHNL.


  8. #83
    griffey24's Avatar
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    This week is pretty busy so probably played the last session of the month today.

    Played well again, and managed another session with no avoidable losses, and also managed to get back into the green.

    Next month's focus is continuing my trend of tracking how many times I 3bet each villain and ensuring every 3bet is under good dynamic, and has the desired outcome. Also keep going with keeping avoidable losses in check. I need to make sure the lack of avoidable losses this past week or so weren't a product of me winning and they need to be independent of the sessions results.

    Winnings on the year: $245
    Avoidable losses on the year: $5,500
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  9. #84
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Played ok today, though the tables weren't too great so I had to cold call a little more than I wanted, because there was too high a risk of getting rampant 4b.

    I'll estimate my avoidable at about $500 today, mostly a result of not folding early enough.

    Avoidable:

    Hand 36)
    Villain here is a spazz stationy reg, but either way I think turn should be a fold. River should also be a fold but I didn't read the board properly and thought only 3x resulted in a straight.

    $2/$4 No Limit Holdem
    5 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($462) 116bb
    CO ($392) 98bb
    BTN ($440.70) 110bb
    griffey24 (SB) ($482.70) 121bb
    BB ($878.30) 220bb

    Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is SB
    UTG raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $12, griffey24 calls $10, 1 fold

    Flop: ($40, 3 players)
    griffey24 checks, UTG checks, BTN bets $30, griffey24 calls $30, UTG folds

    Turn: ($100, 2 players)
    griffey24 checks, BTN bets $70, griffey24 calls $70

    River: ($240, 2 players)
    griffey24 bets $175, BTN goes all-in $328.70, griffey24 calls $153.70

    Final Pot: $897.40
    BTN shows


    BTN wins $894.40 (net +$453.70)

    griffey24 lost $440.70
    UTG lost $12



    Winnings on the month: -$836
    Avoidable losses on the month: $500


    Winnings on the year: -$590
    Avoidable losses on the year: $600
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  10. #85
    I don't like leading the river, your perceived range is too strong for that, and you don't even have the nuts. 66-77-88, 7x beat you, and overpairs/bluffs won't even bet on that card. I guess I'm suggesting a c/f river.
    Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //

    Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
  11. #86
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alexos View Post
    I don't like leading the river, your perceived range is too strong for that, and you don't even have the nuts. 66-77-88, 7x beat you, and overpairs/bluffs won't even bet on that card. I guess I'm suggesting a c/f river.
    Doesn't c/c c/c lead here look kind of spazzy last ditch attempt for a flush draw to win?

    Or at least.. don't non-believers think of it that way?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  12. #87
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Leveling wars

    One thing I find about leveling is that if someone takes an unorthodox line (ie: overbetting a particular street) and wins vs you, then they are more likely to run a bluff with a similar line later on in the session.

    Really, if villain triples you and wins they are probably more likely to attempt some bluff later vs you expecting you to respect them, regardless if there is anything unorthodox about it.

    This particular villain double barelled vs me and overbet the river and won. He also made a smile in chat after, so it was clear we both understood that he took that line and won.

    This hand is not so long after. The turn really isn't a great card but when he overbets I expect that he's thinking I'm going to respect it and fold (since I lost earlier to his overbet), so he might not overbet here if he actually hit the A or had a strong hand.

    $2/$4 No Limit Holdem
    5 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($451.80) 113bb
    CO ($470.10) 118bb
    BTN ($594.80) 149bb
    SB ($558.90) 140bb
    griffey24 (BB) ($422.10) 106bb

    Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) griffey24 is BB
    3 folds, SB raises to $12, griffey24 calls $8

    Flop: ($24, 2 players)
    SB checks, griffey24 bets $16, SB raises to $40, griffey24 calls $24

    Turn: ($104, 2 players)
    SB bets $140, griffey24 calls $140

    River: ($384, 2 players)
    SB checks, griffey24 checks

    Final Pot: $384
    SB shows

    griffey24 shows


    griffey24 wins $381 (net +$189)

    SB lost $192
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  13. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    Doesn't c/c c/c lead here look kind of spazzy last ditch attempt for a flush draw to win?

    Or at least.. don't non-believers think of it that way?
    Maybe, not sure. It's still a very good card for your range. This line would make more sense if there weren't 2 straights possibilities on board.

    You don't have many FDs, only like 78ss, 89ss, 9Tss, and JTss, QTss, QJss which might 3bet pre or fold turn.
    Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //

    Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
  14. #89
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Played really really well today, probably one of my best sessions in a long time and definitely best session so far this year.

    Made some good reads on the river and raised in spots I might not otherwise raise or raise call.

    Hand 37)
    -Villain is kinda meh bad, and FPS'ish
    -Turn is close, could definitely be a bet, but ppl's calling ranges are just so wide on rivers after you check back turns so decided to pot control here
    -after river sizing I'm very confident this player isn't betting like that here with a flush, and then given my turn check back I know he thinks I can't have a flush so I'm at the top of my range

    $1/$2 No Limit Holdem
    6 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($552.50) 276bb
    UTG+1 ($276.10) 138bb
    griffey24 (CO) ($205.25) 103bb
    BTN ($353.60) 177bb
    SB ($75) 38bb
    BB ($252.70) 126bb

    Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is CO
    2 folds, griffey24 raises to $5, 2 folds, BB calls $3

    Flop: ($11, 2 players)
    BB checks, griffey24 bets $11, BB calls $11

    Turn: ($33, 2 players)
    BB checks, griffey24 checks

    River: ($33, 2 players)
    BB bets $11, griffey24 raises to $35, BB raises to $80, griffey24 calls $45

    Final Pot: $193
    BB shows

    griffey24 shows


    griffey24 wins $190 (net +$94)

    BB lost $96


    Hand 38)
    This is a spot I feel I normally just flat river since he's pretty polarized, though I'm aware villain can value bet thin and he's also pretty aggro (cbet most Ax), so this river really felt like KQ to me (especially due to sizing) - I probably flat if he bets harder
    -He ended up b/c KJ

    $2/$4 No Limit Holdem
    6 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($734.40) 184bb
    UTG+1 ($121.20) 30bb
    CO ($374) 94bb
    BTN ($584.90) 146bb
    SB ($400) 100bb
    griffey24 (BB) ($598.80) 150bb

    Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BB
    4 folds, SB raises to $12, griffey24 calls $8

    Flop: ($24, 2 players)
    SB checks, griffey24 checks

    Turn: ($24, 2 players)
    SB bets $18, griffey24 calls $18

    River: ($60, 2 players)
    SB bets $35, griffey24 raises to $80, SB calls $45

    Final Pot: $220
    griffey24 shows


    griffey24 wins $217 (net +$107)

    SB lost $110




    Winnings on the month: $1,536
    Avoidable losses on the month: $500


    Winnings on the year: $1750
    Avoidable losses on the year: $6000
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  15. #90
    1- turn is close? seems like a clear bet
    Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //

    Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
  16. #91
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Playing well this month. Keeping track of my dynamic is helping a lot, though it's also causing my 3b % to drop a fair bit but that's ok.

    Gonna post a couple hands in SHNL.

    Winnings on the month: $2,176
    Avoidable losses on the month: $650


    Winnings on the year: $2390
    Avoidable losses on the year: $6150
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  17. #92
    griffey24's Avatar
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    The last couple sessions this weekend have not been great, got variance rocked. Especially this past one was a bad combination of variance and then ofcourse, avoidable losses. I probably should have quit sooner, but felt I was playing ok for the most part.

    Does anyone have any good math on set hunting in 3bet pots?

    Sometimes I get into these sessions where somehow every pocket pair I get, gets 3b, and ppl are 3betting small enough that I keep having like 13-15x effective behind so I keep peeling them. I'm not sure how good that is or not.

    Winnings on the month: -$80
    Avoidable losses on the month: $1350


    Winnings on the year: $130
    Avoidable losses on the year: $6850



    Avoidable losses:

    Hand 39)
    This spot is meh. Villain was playing aggro, I could go either way on the turn. Calling the turn and re-eval river is probably alright given the price he's giving me, so I'd say an extra $170 avoidable here.

    $1/$2 No Limit Holdem
    5 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($236.95) 118bb
    griffey24 (CO) ($277.33) 139bb
    BTN ($303.75) 152bb
    SB ($245.92) 123bb
    BB ($307.30) 154bb

    Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) griffey24 is CO
    1 fold, griffey24 raises to $6, BTN calls $6, 1 fold, BB raises to $24, griffey24 calls $18, BTN folds

    Flop: ($55, 2 players)
    BB bets $28, griffey24 calls $28

    Turn: ($111, 2 players)
    BB bets $56, griffey24 goes all-in $225.33, BB calls $169.33

    River: ($561.66, 2 players, 1 all-in)

    Final Pot: $561.66
    griffey24 shows

    BB shows


    BB wins $558.66 (net +$281.33)

    griffey24 lost $277.33
    BTN lost $6

    Hand 40)
    I'm not sure what the best line is here. Villain is somewhat aggro, and has definitely been on me in previous sessions 3betting me. I've seen him raise flops somewhat light before.

    I'd imagine jam is prob the worst option given I block his combos of worse pairs+draws. I also block the nuts though, so I don't expect too many value hands raising here.

    I don't think this is the best line so I'll count some avoidable here.

    $1/$2 No Limit Holdem
    6 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    griffey24 (UTG) ($200) 100bb
    UTG+1 ($235.05) 118bb
    CO ($209) 105bb
    BTN ($313.20) 157bb
    SB ($543.15) 272bb
    BB ($200) 100bb

    Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) griffey24 is UTG
    griffey24 raises to $6, 1 fold, CO calls $6, 3 folds

    Flop: ($15, 2 players)
    griffey24 bets $10, CO calls $10

    Turn: ($35, 2 players)
    griffey24 bets $25, CO raises to $73, griffey24 goes all-in $184

    Hand 41)
    This is a weird hand. Villain is a reg, and I think he often thinks I'm FoS pre and also thinks I fold to a lot of 4b. Based on dynamic I felt reasonably certain that he was light here, though given that read I should def just jam this pre. I'd rather be calling oop with a high less vulnerable pair if I felt like peeling.

    River is a bluff.. but is better ever folding? QQ/JJ/Kx?

    $1/$2 No Limit Holdem
    4 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    CO ($192.45) 96bb
    BTN ($220.95) 110bb
    griffey24 (SB) ($207.30) 104bb
    BB ($219.85) 110bb

    Pre-Flop: ($3, 4 players) griffey24 is SB
    1 fold, BTN raises to $5, griffey24 raises to $20, 1 fold, BTN raises to $40, griffey24 calls $20

    Flop: ($82, 2 players)
    griffey24 checks, BTN bets $30, griffey24 calls $30

    Turn: ($142, 2 players)
    griffey24 checks, BTN checks

    River: ($142, 2 players)
    griffey24 bets $137.30, BTN calls $137.30

    Final Pot: $416.60
    BTN shows

    griffey24 shows


    BTN wins $414.60 (net +$207.30)

    griffey24 lost $207.30
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  18. #93
    39- Fold pre?
    40- Isn't this a close turn fold? You should stove a really tight range here and see what it gives, but pretty sure folding is best. I think he has all sets, KJs, AQss, 88, QJs.
    41- Clear clear jam pre. I check river usually but I like your play, puts him in a tough spot with 95% of his range.
    Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //

    Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
  19. #94
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Some Bluffs and Bluff catching anyone?

    Hand 42)
    -villain was aggro and spewy type that likes to make plays
    -villain was 3betting around 12 and being very aggro
    -Why the re-bluff:
    1) I feel like this kind of "making plays" villain thinks he can rep strong here
    2) Such a high 3bet, he's rarely showing up with strong Q's here like AQ/KQ even if he has a Q, and he might not necessarily always c/r QJ or worse Q's
    3) I block the nut FD so if he has a lower FDs he won't love being 3b here

    $2/$4 No Limit Holdem
    6 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($354) 89bb
    UTG+1 ($1,223.05) 306bb
    CO ($402.50) 101bb
    griffey24 (BTN) ($388) 97bb
    SB ($440.30) 110bb
    BB ($463) 116bb

    Pre-Flop: ($6, 6 players) griffey24 is BTN
    3 folds, griffey24 raises to $10, 1 fold, BB calls $6

    Flop: ($22, 2 players)
    BB checks, griffey24 bets $16, BB raises to $48, griffey24 raises to $80


    Hand 43)
    -villain is meh reg, who calls lots of flops
    Why bluff:
    -because my range is much stronger than villains, and in my experience regs seem to fold here
    -if I'm in villains shoes I'm certainly folding a ton here

    $1/$2 No Limit Holdem
    4 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    griffey24 (CO) ($365.35) 183bb
    BTN ($477.15) 239bb
    SB ($201) 101bb
    BB ($168.35) 84bb

    Pre-Flop: ($3, 4 players) griffey24 is CO
    griffey24 raises to $6, BTN calls $6, 2 folds

    Flop: ($15, 2 players)
    griffey24 bets $10, BTN calls $10

    Turn: ($35, 2 players)
    griffey24 checks, BTN bets $18, griffey24 raises to $70

    Hand 44)
    Bluff catching?
    -Villain opens wide EP, and generally cbets pretty high
    -on the river as per my "calling big bets" conditions earlier in the blog:
    -Do they expect me to fold? YES
    -Can their range be strong? Meh, he probably thinks yes
    -Can my range be strong? No - not after turn check back
    -Should he expect me to bet? Not really - so c/r doesn't make much sense
    -Moreso: after he c/r the flop he gets to river with a very wide range of hands that won't really want to c/c, so will either c/f or c/r

    $1/$2 No Limit Holdem
    5 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($316) 158bb
    CO ($200) 100bb
    griffey24 (BTN) ($200) 100bb
    SB ($301.20) 151bb
    BB ($484.45) 242bb

    Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) griffey24 is BTN
    1 fold, CO raises to $5, griffey24 calls $5, 2 folds

    Flop: ($13, 2 players)
    CO checks, griffey24 bets $10, CO calls $10

    Turn: ($33, 2 players)
    CO checks, griffey24 checks

    River: ($33, 2 players)
    CO checks, griffey24 bets $16, CO raises to $50, griffey24 calls $34?
    Last edited by griffey24; 02-11-2013 at 08:11 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  20. #95
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Small 3betting In Position

    The other day I played a session and the reg that had position on me on several tables was rampant 3betting my $12 opens to $28 IP. I usually fold a ton of 3bets, but the price was too good and I was calling with a huge part of my opening range (which is quasi tight to begin with from MP, on avg prob 20%).

    By the end of the session I had gotten owned by him several times, which had me thinking about doing this more often.

    I looked into more of his stats and realized that over 2k hands he had 1-2% cold call on MP/CO and 0% cold call on the button! This is taking "3b or fold" to the extreme, but is an interesting concept.

    I have tried something similar in the past and my huge problem was 3betting with quality hands (KQs, KJs, QJs, AJs, 99 etc) that are very playable, but that also don't love 4bets. The end result was peeling too many 4b IP.

    I will try playing around with this style over my next few sessions and see how it goes.

    My concerns with this strategy are:

    1) Temptation to peel too many 4b with playable hands IP
    2) Sizing inducing more 4bets
    3) Inducing more cold 4bets
    4) Giving good set hunting odds, and not being able to fold overpairs postflop.

    Anyone have any thoughts on this?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  21. #96
    griffey24's Avatar
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    This month is going off the rails a bit. The last several sessions have been bruuuutal for variance. Not all in EV but just the hands that I'm losing at showdown. It's one of those frustrating stretches where I feel like I'm hitting a set every hand but also not winning.

    Played a monster grind today, 6k hands. My biggest grind in ages, though I was down $2k. I did try to implement my small 3betting though which was pretty fun, and clearly frustrated ppl at times, though also got me into a lot of dumb spots.

    I will try this 3betting small IP a few more sessions to see how it goes. One note is definitely not to peel 4bets, even if I induce more of them.

    Winnings on the month: -$3900
    Avoidable losses on the month: $3000


    Winnings on the year: $-3700
    Avoidable losses on the year: $8500
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  22. #97
    griffey24's Avatar
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    I was reading an article the other day about the blue jays, and specifically their centre fielder Colby Rasmus. I couldn't help but associate a lot of what was being said to my poker career. This is an excerpt from the beginning of the article:

    "The days of Colby Rasmus constantly changing his mechanics at the plate have hopefully come to an end. That's the goal for Toronto's center fielder and the coaching staff as they aim to find a consistent approach that can be maintained throughout a 162-game schedule.
    Rasmus has been known in the past for making rather frequent adjustments when things aren't going well, but this year, the club is looking to uphold a different philosophy.
    "The talent in him is unbelievable," hitting coach Chad Mottola said. "The things he does, the way he gets to the front of the box, and we're just going to get his quick hands to work in his favor rather than going through swing changes all year.
    "We modified [his approach] a little bit, but it's one of those things where as time goes on, we hope we're not going to see five different stances after an 0-for-4. We're trying to get a consistent base and then we're going to stay there."


    I think I'm DEFINITELY guilty of what has plagued Rasmus in the past. He goes through a rough patch and tries tweaking things, changing things, when his approach may still be good and he may just be falling a victim to short term variance.

    Over the course of January / Feb alone I can list all the different strategies I've tried implementing as things haven't entirely been going well:
    1) Attempting to minimize cold calling, 3b or folding IP (result: got 4b a ton and started 3b/folding too much)
    2) 3betting small IP to encourage more calls, as opposed to 4bets, when my 3b range was wide but balanced (this worked ok, definitely got more calls but was giving good set odds and my big pairs were getting stacked. Also encouraged cold 4bets)
    3) flatting more out of the blinds (was folding too much, resulting in a poor blinds winrate)
    4) realizing that flatting out of the blinds was not working well, and 3betting more out of the blinds instead, to up the VPIP but also maintain aggression (Result - putting myself in tough spots with second best hands that were too strong to fold, ie: QT on T53 vs AT, AT on KTxhh mega draw heavy board)
    5) stronger focus on blind stealing, and adjusting my open sizes on who was in the blinds to increase the likelihood of a fold (ie: SB/BB have fold to steals around 75-80% so I min raise open, BB has fold to steal of around 60% so I open 2.5x of 3x)

    I AM ALL OVER THE FREAKING BOARD!

    I go into a session with a plan, have a bad session and re-vamp the plan. This may not be horrible, as it keeps people guessing and certainly whatever pre-conceived notions ppl have of my play based on stats won't be accurate. But at the same time, I really need to find a good solid strategy and stick with it for my own good.

    Going forward on the year, here are my poker vows that I need to stick by for at least some semblance of a sample size (even if it's just one month straight):

    1. Maintain focus on blind stealing (adjust open sizes where needed, fold more when steal looks unlikely)
    2. 3b or fold IP within the constraints of dynamic. (3b light IP to build dynamic, but once he's likely to 4b, fold hands if cold calling is not profitable)
    3. 3b wider in blinds vs LP stealers who FOLD to 3bets. 3b solid range vs. rampant callers, or be willing to c/f more bricked flops when called.
    4. Maintain focus on positional play (folding EP, ramping up towards Btn)
    5. Fold WAY EARLIER, where possible. If my range has other stronger hands in it, then be much more willing to fold. (ie: Calling down KKKAx board with 88 is unnecessary when my range has Kx, lots of Ax, and bigger pairs than 88)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  23. #98
    Would it not be a good idea to do some research into variance over different sample sizes and then when you implement a new plan do it until you see that statistically it isn't working and then attempt to revamp it? Or even if it is working look at how it could be improved.

    It's always better to have an idea in terms of numbers than time imo.
    Last edited by Savy; 02-28-2013 at 01:52 PM.
  24. #99
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    Just wanted to give an update.

    Last month ended up pretty brutal! Was down $6.5k, with a variance beat down combined with not the greatest play.

    My avoidable losses were still there, but less than January, so that's some improvement at least.

    March up till yesterday afternoon was going amazingly well. I was playing probably the best I had played in years, was up around $7k for month as of yesterday morning.

    Though yesterday evening I hit a huge rush of bad variance (I lost quads to a rivered straight flush!), and lost about $3.3k in 3 hours or so. One thing that became very clear to me is that when I start getting hit by variance, I start being much more willing to play a high variance game (probably in an attempt to get back to even for the session? which is clearly dumb). A high variance game which I generally avoided for the first 10 days of the month.

    I think I get stuck, and start wondering how everyone can keep having hands. Suddenly I 3b 99 and get cold 4b by an aggro (a spot where I'm fine folding usually), and in the midst of the run bad I jam this instead. I squeeze AJss, and ship over a 4b instead of folding vs a spazz reg. These are all close'ish spots, that when playing solid I fold, but when losing I jam.

    Suddenly instead of being down $1400ish in coolers, I'm down $3300ish in coolers and high variance unnecessary spots.

    I'm still in a good spot for the month right now, up $3.8k and putting in decent volume. I need to keep a very close eye on spots like this going forward and making a concerted effort in avoiding high variance plays.

    Winnings January: $200
    Avoidable Losses Jan: $5,500

    Winnings February: -$6,500
    Avoidable Losses Feb: $4,500

    Winnings March: $3,800
    Avoidable Losses March: $1,100


    I'm going to try and look at how many hands I played per month, it's prob more useful showing avoidable losses in terms of winrate (loss rate), to actually see if there's an improvement), since my number of hands per month is fluctuating.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  25. #100
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    With counting avoidable losses I can't help but think you may approach each session with fear as opposed to finding opportunity.
    Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
  26. #101
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Da GOAT View Post
    With counting avoidable losses I can't help but think you may approach each session with fear as opposed to finding opportunity.
    I look forward to the day that fear stops me from pulling the trigger in a dumb spot.. if only...
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  27. #102
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I look forward to the day that fear stops me from pulling the trigger in a dumb spot.. if only...
    lol so true

    and unlike 99% of the poker population. Griffey is made for nosebleeds.
    Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //

    Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
  28. #103
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Action vs same villain on different tables: Distinguishing between a bluff or value bet one one of them?

    This is a spot that comes up somewhat often. You're playing a villain on multiple tables at once. On table A you get to the river and villain shoves into you and you're trying to decide what to do. On table B I take a line that I hope will try to help me make a decision on table A (ie: I 3b villain or raise villain on the flop and see how villain reacts).

    In general from my experience if villain super snap folds on Table B, he's trying not to intentionally frustrate you into stubborn calling him on the other table. Especially if its a spot where villain rarely folds (ie: villain calls tons of 3b, and suddenly super snap folds). Likewise, if villain plays back at you it's more likely that he has a hand on Table A.

    Look at it this way: You just bluff shoved vs villain on one table and he's time banking and now he 3b you on another table. Are you really going to 4b him in this spot? Probably not.

    This is a hand that came up yesterday.

    Table A:
    -villain was being a stationy non-believer so I was pretty sure he'd view my double barrel on this card as hearts or some draw and call down any pair
    -river is tough cause I rarely have 6x when I check here, and my most common occurrence here is to c/f since he can be v-betting 78/T8/77/TT.

    $2/$4 No Limit Holdem
    5 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    Hero (UTG) ($552.40) 138bb
    CO ($586.20) 147bb
    BTN ($425.50) 106bb
    SB ($402) 101bb
    BB ($656.90) 164bb

    Pre-Flop: ($6, 5 players) Hero is UTG
    Hero raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $12, 2 folds

    Flop: ($30, 2 players)
    Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

    Turn: ($70, 2 players)
    Hero bets $50, BTN calls $50

    River: ($170, 2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $135, Hero looks to Table B..

    Table B
    -villain was the type of player that bets turns after i ck back flops
    -this hand happened while I was time banking the above hand
    -I intentionally check backed flop to see what he would do and he snap c/f in a spot I expect him to bet or c/c somewhat often

    $1/$2 No Limit Holdem
    5 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    Hero (UTG) ($231.55) 116bb
    CO ($70) 35bb
    BTN ($202) 101bb
    SB ($175.55) 88bb
    BB ($200) 100bb

    Pre-Flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is UTG
    Hero raises to $6, 3 folds, BB calls $4

    Flop: ($13, 2 players)
    BB checks, Hero checks

    Turn: ($13, 2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $9, BB folds



    Back to Table A:

    -This action on Table B pushed my close decision on table A from a fold to a call

    River: ($170, 2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $135, Hero calls $135

    Final Pot: $440
    Hero shows

    BTN shows


    Hero wins $437 (net +$220)

    BTN lost $217
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  29. #104
    griffey24's Avatar
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    No thoughts on this theory?

    Surely someone must either agree that it seems reasonable, or really think I'm way over-thinking?

    Need to promote some responses going here, boring talking to myself
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  30. #105
    rpm's Avatar
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    i've never ever thought about anything like this in play but the point you make about folding a profitable 4b vs a villain who is timing down vs my river AI bluff on another table is certainly true. i'd be kind of wary making big calls based on how villain is playing vs us on other tables because it's only one hand worth of information and we could have just ran into the very bottom of villain's range and taken down a 4-5bb pot he was uninterested in anyway, and use that to talk ourselves into calling a 66bb (this is just an example) river shove on another table.

    obv take them with a grain of salt but they're my thoughts
  31. #106
    griffey24's Avatar
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    I've established that poker is just a tease. You go on an upswing and you feel as though you're playing well but then variance comes in and brings you back to reality. That's pretty much what has happened this month.

    The first 9.5 days: up $7k
    The next 9.5 days: down $5.5k

    I spent a bit of this morning trying to analyze if there were any telling differences in play, or in variance over that time period.

    One major difference was:

    The first 9.5 days: up $3.5k in NON-showdown winnings
    The next 9.5 days: down $2.5k in NON-showdown winnings

    Now technically, non-showdown winnings aren't entirely dependent on variance/having hands. Though I think a large part of this has to do with flopping a lot of hands in the first week and a half (two pairs/trips/few more sets) so having more hands to raise/bet/bet which would result in better non-showdown if ppl folded by river.

    I'm going to check if this is true. That being said, if it seems that most ppl are calling flop raises but getting to SD less than 50% then it would be +EV barreling my air regardless.

    Another difference was my 3b pot tendencies. I'm running on my memory but if I remember correctly:

    The first 9.5 days: Fold to 3b 66.3%, call 3b 14.4% and raise 3b 19.3%
    The next 9.5 days: Fold to 3b 63%, call 3b 19.9% and raise 3b 17.1%

    This is a big jump in calling 3bets. Again part of this is variance I'm sure. People seem to be 3b me small a fair bit, so I'm peeling pockets with more than 15x effective.

    The difference in non-showdown is interesting, and I need to look more into if this is a style of play difference, or variance.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  32. #107
    griffey24's Avatar
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    This morning I was thinking about some content in a poker book I read a while ago. I'm pretty sure it was a well known book, it might have been mental game of poker though I can't recall.

    The primary message was essentially that some hands play themselves, and those hands aren't where the money is made. Winning/losing KK vs AA preflop, QQ vs AK preflop, second nuts vs nuts etc aren't going to vary much from villain to villain. Most hands will end up the same way, so if you ask yourself "Would villain have lost/won as much as I did this hand, if roles were reversed?" - the answer is likely yes.

    Poker players really distinguish themselves on all the other hands. The hands where you can legitimately question "would villain have lost/won as much as I did this hand?"

    I think a lot of my losses come from losses where I don't think other villains would have lost as much. I 3b/5b jam A6hh, or AJ, or some lower'ish pair and get dominated (whereas I never feel like I catch people jamming this stuff into me). I'm too quick to aggro shove on flops where I'm at least going to have 30-35% equity but really I'm also very likely to mostly only have 35% equity (ie: yest got c/r on 7x8d9d and I jammed J8ss for 70bb or so. Or 3way flop K85hhh, I have AhQx - blinds donks pot into PFR, PFR flats and I raise/call off - when really OOP donker is likely quite strong here)

    Dynamic Play - Source of my problem!

    As I stated in other posts, I have a tendency to try new things and switch up how I play pretty often. Some stretch of sessions I have a btn/blinds 3b of around 13-14%, others I might be flatting more and have a 3b of 5-7%. Some stretch of sessions I might be raising more flops, others flatting more. Some my 4b may be 10% and others 20%.

    Experimenting on a whole is good, and you learn a lot. But the major major downside is: I HAVE NOOOO CLUE HOW I'M PERCEIVED.

    This is proving to be very troublesome. Am I being 4b because villain thinks my 3b is 14%, or because villain is mega strong and thinks my 3b is 5%? The ranges I should be jamming here are obv VERY different in each of these two conditions.

    I'm reviewing a lot of my hands this month to see how my play has been. I went from up $7k to down $4k on the month, but I think my play has been good overall. I'm going to try and keep my style consistent for a while, to remedy this perception issue!
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  33. #108
    griffey24's Avatar
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    GTO and Frequencies

    Been thinking about/ reading about Game Theory more lately and just frequencies in general.

    One spot I think I lack is really using the appropriate frequencies in spots. I tend to go to extremes too often, either not triple barrel bluffing or doing it too much. I've always find it hard to figure out a way to really control frequencies.

    Known:

    If we bet on the river:

    50% of the pot - Villain needs to call and win 25% of the time (ie: We can bluff 25% of the time)
    60% of pot - We can bluff 27% of the time
    70% of pot -We can bluff 29.6% of the time
    80% of pot - We can bluff 30.7% of the time
    90% of pot - We can bluff 32.1% of the time
    100% of the pot - We can bluff 33% of the time

    But how can we control this in practice, and be bluffing with the appropriate number of combos relative to value hands?

    After a bit of math I've come up with:

    Bluff combos = (%wecanbluff * num_value_hands)/(1-%wecanbluff)

    So if we can bluff 27% of the time, this simplifies to:
    Bluff combos = 0.37*numvaluehands

    If we can bluff 30.7% of the time, this simplifies to:
    Bluff combos = 0.44*numvaluehands

    So really, the amount that will satisfy most of our betting range on the river (between 0.6-0.8 of the pot) will be:
    Bluff combos = 0.4*numvaluehands

    **DISCLAIMER** - I don't think content below here in this post is correct, tried fixing it in the subsequent post ***



    How to put into practice?

    Suppose we're on the turn with

    The board is

    I'm going to estimate we have 15 outs (so 15 cards on the river we'll be betting for value - 9 hearts, 3 non heart K, 3 non heart Q)
    Bluff combos = 0.4*15
    Bluff combos = 6 combos

    Knowing we can put this into practice, the best way to do this is to decide on the turn which 6 combos you will bluff with. This will work out to picking two cards in the deck to bluff on (3 non-heart cards per selection).

    In this case the cards with the most fold equity are likely any Ace and any Jack (6 non heart aces and jacks). If we decide on the turn that we will always bluff any ace and any jack, but also ONLY bluff any ace and any jack, we will be bluffing with 6 combos compared to 15 value combos (28.5% bluffs).

    If we bet a little less than 70% on the river, then we are playing GTO vs his calling range. We are indifferent to villain calling or folding to our bet. This is on top of the times he incorrectly folds to our bets on an A or J river.

    Common draws:

    OESD = 8 value outs, need 3 bluffs
    FD = 9 value outs, need about 3 bluffs (3.6 really) - so pick one card in the deck and bet all of those rivers when that card falls
    FD+1 over = 12 value outs, need 4.8 bluffs
    FD+gutter = 13 value outs, need 5 bluffs
    FD+2 overs = 15 value outs, bet 6 combos for bluffs

    I'll try to put this into practice. The key here is that you're pre-selecting your bluff cards on the turn and sticking to it. If you just randomly decide on the river, then its tough to really control frequencies.

    (Important note: Playing GTO assumes that your opponent is also playing close to GTO. If villain has exploitable tendencies (ie: folds way too much or way too little), this would not be the best gameplan)
    Last edited by griffey24; 03-27-2013 at 08:49 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  34. #109
    griffey24's Avatar
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    I'm starting to wonder if maybe my calculations are a bit off on the above example.

    In that example on a Jh river for example, our actual number of value hands on the river should be based on our entire range, so all sets (222,333,777,888,JJJ = 15 combos, 78s 2 combos, and all flushes (A3,A5,A6,A8,A9,AT,AQ,AKhh, KQ, QThh, 89hh = 11 combos) = Total value combos of 32.

    So if we have 32 value combos on a Jack of hearts river, then:
    bluff combos = 32*0.4 = 11 bluff combos.

    We have 17 value combos on a non heart brick, then:
    bluff combos = 17*0.4 = 7 bluff combos.

    Anyone have any thoughts if this seems more reasonable? I don't claim to be a GTO expert, so just trying to work through this stuff!
    Last edited by griffey24; 03-26-2013 at 10:35 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  35. #110
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    The primary message was essentially that some hands play themselves, and those hands aren't where the money is made. Winning/losing KK vs AA preflop, QQ vs AK preflop, second nuts vs nuts etc aren't going to vary much from villain to villain. Most hands will end up the same way, so if you ask yourself "Would villain have lost/won as much as I did this hand, if roles were reversed?" - the answer is likely yes.

    Poker players really distinguish themselves on all the other hands. The hands where you can legitimately question "would villain have lost/won as much as I did this hand?"
    fundamental theory of poker plus i remember some book (e-book/blog?) where some poker ego was saying that his edge was being way better at playing things like KJs than most players. I've been thinking about this heaps recently. Going to review this whole thread in early april, cos there is gold in it.

    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I HAVE NOOOO CLUE HOW I'M PERCEIVED.
    in absence of notes and/or further info just go with the most likely answer perhaps? i.e.
    vs regs with loads of volume, you're perceived as per running a report on yourself in HEM/PT
    vs unknowns, you're perceived as running as per your HUD stats display that show what you've been doing at this table during this session
    vs in betweens, figure out how much this session is contributing to your history via the good ol' hud double click
  36. #111
    kmind's Avatar
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    Griff - rooting hard for you obviously. What kind of GTO material are you reading, watching, using (tools), etc? I'm about to go on a 100% GTO study/0% play binge soon and have found a lot of good resources to attempt to study this.

    I'm going to try and chime in here more often.
  37. #112
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kmind View Post
    Griff - rooting hard for you obviously. What kind of GTO material are you reading, watching, using (tools), etc? I'm about to go on a 100% GTO study/0% play binge soon and have found a lot of good resources to attempt to study this.

    I'm going to try and chime in here more often.
    Kmizzle! Are you playing these days?

    I don't really have any great resources at the moment, so definitely post whatever you have.

    I've been using the poker equity tool on pokerstrategy.com (I think that's the site), so see how many hand combinations for value I have on certain types of boards (from every position). Then assuming I bet around 70% pot on river, how many bluff combos I can reasonably have.

    My preliminary conclusion is that I have TONS of value hands on flush cards from the button, so I should be bluffing a lot more than I am on flush cards.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  38. #113
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Also just in general I think if people are playing low-stakes, then it is probably much more worthwhile putting in that same time analyzing players and coming up with an exploitive strategy vs them, rather than GTO.

    GTO assumes that your villain is also playing close to GTO, which probably is not the case a lot of the time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  39. #114
    kmind's Avatar
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    Agree about low stakes playing exploitative poker; however, GTO should still profit and should really help understand what kind of ways in which we can exploit more accurately.
  40. #115
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    Thought it would be interesting to show a screenshot of my crazy HUD, that has soo many stats on it!

    I've definitely been using the popup screens a lot more lately, especially for by position opening, and raise cbet %. But I've always liked having lots of stats in front of me.

    The numbers I really focus on are generally bigger font size than the others. Most are also colour coordinated, with red being low, yellow middle-ish, purple higher, green reasonably high and blue very high.

    My stats are:

    Name / wtsd / won at sd
    SB fold steal / BB fold steal / fold flop cb to raise / fold 3b IP
    vpip / pfr / AF / Btn steal / SB steal
    3b / call 3b / 4b / fold to 4b / cold 4b / squeeze
    flop cb / turn cb/ river cb / fold to flop cb / fold to turn cb / fold to river cb

    The numbers I've recently made bigger are fold to 3b IP and Btn steal, as I'm making a more concerted effort of loosening up my blind play vs these particular players.

    Also with my recent attempt at finding spots to triple, I'm trying to focus on players that fold a lot to triples.

    Last edited by griffey24; 04-08-2013 at 09:02 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  41. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    Thought it would be interesting to show a screenshot of my crazy HUD, that has soo many stats on it!
    Stat-tastic in a quide lidderally HUDmungous way, mate

    you ever use auto-rate or Note-Caddy?
    don't want no tutti-frutti, no lollipop
  42. #117
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    Stat-tastic in a quide lidderally HUDmungous way, mate

    you ever use auto-rate or Note-Caddy?
    Used note-caddy for like one session a long time ago, but never tried using it much more than that.

    Generally speaking you need pretty large samples for note-caddy to be useful I'd imagine. I think it's biggest use over a small sample is probably seeing any sample on occurrences that most regs would rarely do.

    Something like limp/raising a big pair, or c/c a turned flush or some weird plays like that. Where you'd prob expect most ppl to have 0/50 chances, but in a small sample you see some ppl have 1/3 or something.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  43. #118
    If you table select a decent table (as I'm sure you do) how many players around the table do you expect to see with less than 1,50,250,1000, 1000+ hands in your HUD?

    I ask because a lot of the stats you are showing take a looooooong time to converge to meaningful values.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  44. #119
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pelion View Post
    If you table select a decent table (as I'm sure you do) how many players around the table do you expect to see with less than 1,50,250,1000, 1000+ hands in your HUD?

    I ask because a lot of the stats you are showing take a looooooong time to converge to meaningful values.
    If I'm on 6-8 tables, that's 30-40 potential villains.

    I'd say maybe 4 of these players I have between 1-250 hands, and all the rest have >1000 hands probably. Tons of regs.

    ie: 4 of the tables I'm playing, I'm specifically playing because there is some name I don't recognize, and then the other 2-4 I'm playing cause there is some meh reg I want to play against.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  45. #120
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    Used note-caddy for like one session a long time ago, but never tried using it much more than that.
    why only the one sesh, if u don't mind me asking?

    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    Generally speaking you need pretty large samples for note-caddy to be useful I'd imagine.
    depends on the stats you want to monitor.

    AFAIK (not a user, BTW), it's strength lies in correlating user-defined sets of stats to trigger the application of tags or 'badges' to your HUD for any opp who fits that particular set of traits. Something that HM2 doesn't do natively beyound the simple stuff you can do with AutoRate.

    So as per your e.g. you could have a badge applied to anyone with hi Btn Steal % and hi fold-to-3Bet %
    don't want no tutti-frutti, no lollipop
  46. #121
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleJ View Post
    why only the one sesh, if u don't mind me asking?



    depends on the stats you want to monitor.

    AFAIK (not a user, BTW), it's strength lies in correlating user-defined sets of stats to trigger the application of tags or 'badges' to your HUD for any opp who fits that particular set of traits. Something that HM2 doesn't do natively beyound the simple stuff you can do with AutoRate.

    So as per your e.g. you could have a badge applied to anyone with hi Btn Steal % and hi fold-to-3Bet %

    Hmmm now that you mention those badges that sounds interesting. Can you apply more than one badge to one person?

    Also as for why I only used it once. I think at the time I was very focused on my stats on my HUD but really wasn't using the pop-up windows very much so I just wasn't accustomed to looking for the additional note-caddy information in that way.

    Maybe it's something I should look into again though?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  47. #122
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    Can you apply more than one badge to one person?
    EDIT: Short answer = Yes

    this is useful : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uez_vLYp_fQ

    There's also a demo (of sorts) embedded into HM2

    Been thinking about getting it meself 4 a while, but short of funzzz so be innarested to hear what you think...
    Last edited by DoubleJ; 04-11-2013 at 10:06 AM.
    don't want no tutti-frutti, no lollipop
  48. #123
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Hey guys,

    Haven't written a blog post in a while!

    Been grinding away the last few months. Overall felt like I've been playing well this year, though the results haven't been coming in. Will strongly have to revisit my future online grind beyond this year if the same persists, or potentially pondering a transfer to grinding live once or twice a month or something on the side.

    I'm down about $10.8k on year, and getting rocked at about $6-7k under EV. Even still it's not overly satisfying knowing my EV is still down. I'm pretty sure I'm running bad in terms of variance as well, but that's hard to measure.

    Decided to run a few filters yesterday, and some of the results I found were somewhat surprising for the year.

    Flatting 4bets:
    -I'm down $5.5k when I run the filter -> 3b = true, faced 4b = true, called 4b= true, allin-preflop = false
    -This filter was about -1800bb/100 which is HORRIBLE
    -Assuming all my 3bets are to around 7-8bb, then 3b and folding all 4b with marginal hands would be about -800bb/100 loss, so much better than my result from flatting
    -it's also interesting that these 5.5k in losses represents about 50% in all losses, while only representing 0.07% of all hands in this years sample - although it's known subconsciously it's surprising that flatting 4b is quite THIS bad
    -adjustment number 1: STOP FLATTING 4B!

    All-in preflop
    -Running the filter -> allin preflop = true
    -my average preflop allin EV is 48% (but checking other regs stat, they seem to be on average about 50-60% range), I'm not sure if this is bad or not, intuitively it seems ok to be a bit under 50% but this depends on how HEM calculates this. If I'm actually consistently 35% in huge pots, and 60% in small pots, this is obviously bad.
    -When I'm allin pre, I'm down $12k! (mind you EV is around -$4k but even still)
    -This represented 365 total all-ins, and of these all-ins only 20 or so were NON TT+, AQ+, AK+
    -Of these 20 NON TT+,AQ+,AK+, I was down about $16k
    -The clear message here is: STOP JAMMING LIGHT
    -Given only 20/365 were marginal jams, I don't think my fold to 4b stat will skyrocket if I tighten up either

    Although I'm down $11k this year, and only $4-5k EV, there's something satisfying in knowing that I have around $21k in losses due to spew flatting 4b and spew 5b jamming.

    Time to right the ship!
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  49. #124
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    No thoughts on this theory?

    Surely someone must either agree that it seems reasonable, or really think I'm way over-thinking?

    Need to promote some responses going here, boring talking to myself
    Bit of an old post but I just read it. It think it can be true but it's a bit flimsy, not something I would stake everything on. In hand A, I'd c/c turn, and as played it is a call anyway.. not happy with it ofcourse. He won't bet so hard with the many 2p he can have so it's only a 6 or a set he pretends to have.
  50. #125
    Btw your blog here has inspired me to get a poker tracker, I play anonymous tables so no stats but I can get stats from myself and try to analyze leaks. Any tip on what best ones for the moment are to try to get?
  51. #126
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackvance View Post
    Btw your blog here has inspired me to get a poker tracker, I play anonymous tables so no stats but I can get stats from myself and try to analyze leaks. Any tip on what best ones for the moment are to try to get?
    Are you asking which specific stats on yourself you should get? What do you think your biggest leaks are?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  52. #127
    My friend uses Poker Copilot but this is for mac, I haven't had any software for hand analysis in a long time.

    My biggest leaks are probably being too loose in 3bet+ pots (like you were talking about) and I'd like to have a look at my bluffing frequency (quite high) and if I'm not playing too loose in certain positions.
  53. #128
    griffey24's Avatar
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    I can't imagine being where I'm at today, or having had made the progress I made early in my poker career without HH analysis and stat analysis etc. There's just too much information you can get out of it, that you're leaving so much on the table by now doing it imo.

    My best advice is that as soon as you get a big enough sample of hands (>150k hands or so), just run filters. A TON of filters, in every type of spot. Figure out if you're more profitable flatting BVB in BB vs 3betting (remove nut hands like AA/KK/AK etc so that you're comparing flatting mediocre hands vs 3betting). Figure out the profitability of flatting SC's IP vs 3betting. Figure out your profitability of flatting mediocre hands in blinds vs 3betting .. etc etc.

    I guarantee you will find at least one thing that is very surprising. One spot where your win rate is WAAAAY larger choosing option A) vs option B), which makes you realize that you need to be doing that option A (whatever it is) a lot more.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  54. #129
    Nice. I ran analysis in Poker Copilot on my hands after a small sample, and already noticed a few glaring mistakes. Playing too loose in the CO. Playing JTo/JTs too much like the nuts. Calling way too much in the big blind. Attacking the blinds too loose. I also dropped down to a combination of 50NL and 100NL instead of 200NL and it paid off.

    Btw my preliminary stats after I did the analysis were:

    Total winnings: +$60
    Non-showdown winnings: +$410
    Showdown winnings: -$350

    I don't know what to think about this.
  55. #130
    griffey24's Avatar
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    That's fine.. as long as total winnings are good then focus on that.

    My winnings are similar to yours and always have been. Non-showdown up, showdown down. It mostly means we are probably either running too many bluffs and/or calling too many rivers where we should be folding.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  56. #131
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    Woke up this morning and decided to run some "calling 3b" filters while eating breakfast! Might as well be productive at 6:30am

    This is what I found so far, over the last two years of calling 3b. The baseline of comparison here is that for most of that two yrs I was probably opening to 2.5x-3x depending on that position, and over last few months 2x-3x depending on position. So folding all 3b would probably net on average about -2.4 to -2.6bb per hand. Anything better than this means calling is better than folding, worse than this means folding is better than calling.

    The number in the brackets is the number of instances. Will comment more later on any opinions I have on this, gotta go to a meeting at work now.

    -calling 3b - pairs 99 and down, -1.96 bb per hand (468)
    -calling 3b - JJ/TT -0.84 bb per hand (185)
    -calling QQ/KK/AA - up 4.86bb per hand (136)
    -RAISING QQ/KK/AA 3b - up 17.81 per hand (269)
    -calling AK - down 1.11 bb/per hand
    -RAISING AK - up 3.44 bb/per hand (247)
    -calling AQ - -2.21 per hand (217)
    -RAISING AQ - up 0.75 bb per hand (139)
    -calling AJ - down 0.07bb per hand (148)
    -calling KQ - down 2.43bb per hand (171)
    -calling KJ - down 1.14bb per hand (122)
    -calling QJs - down 2.92 per hand (113)
    -calling QJo - down 3.57 bb per hand (98)
    -calling JTs - down 2.25 bb per hand (113)
    -calling JTo - down 3.68 per hand (89)
    -calling A7s-ATs - down 3.41 per hand (126)
    -calling A2s-A6s - down 3.82 per hand (98)
    -calling A2o-ATo - down 4.76 per hand (104)
    -calling K2-KTo - down 2.94 per hand (95)
    -calling K2-KTs - down 2.31 per hand (110) (WTSD 6% of time)
    -calling 89s and T9s - down 5.89 per hand (109)
    -calling 45s,56s,67s,78s - do wn 5.17 per hand (124)
    -calling 46s,57s,68s,79s,8Ts,9Js - down 4.53 per hand (118)
    Last edited by griffey24; 06-04-2013 at 09:49 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  57. #132
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    The above sorted in order of profitability:

    "Profitable" call of 3b relative to folding:
    -RAISING QQ/KK/AA 3b - up 17.81 per hand (269)
    -calling QQ/KK/AA - up 4.86bb per hand (136)
    -RAISING AK - up 3.44 bb/per hand (247)
    -RAISING AQ - up 0.75 bb per hand (139)
    -calling 3b - JJ/TT -0.84 bb per hand (185)
    -calling AJ - down 0.07bb per hand (148)
    -calling AK - down 1.11 bb/per hand
    -calling KJ - down 1.14bb per hand (122)
    -calling 3b - pairs 99 and down, -1.96 bb per hand (468)
    -calling AQ - -2.21 per hand (217)
    -calling JTs - down 2.25 bb per hand (113)
    -calling K2-KTs - down 2.31 per hand (110) (WTSD 6% of time)

    Not Profitable:
    -calling KQ - down 2.43bb per hand (171)
    -calling QJs - down 2.92 per hand (113)
    -calling K2-KTo - down 2.94 per hand (95)
    -calling A7s-ATs - down 3.41 per hand (126)
    -calling QJo - down 3.57 bb per hand (98)
    -calling JTo - down 3.68 per hand (89)
    -calling A2s-A6s - down 3.82 per hand (98)
    -calling 46s,57s,68s,79s,8Ts,9Js - down 4.53 per hand (118)
    -calling A2o-ATo - down 4.76 per hand (104)
    -calling 45s,56s,67s,78s - do wn 5.17 per hand (124)
    -calling 89s and T9s - down 5.89 per hand (109)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  58. #133
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Comments on the above win/loss rates.
    In generaly I don't think the overall order of these is that surprising. It's somewhat surprising that calling KQ/QJs to 3bets is not profitable. Even more surprising is that these hands are less profitable than JTs and K2-KTs.

    JTs vs QJs
    This could be a sample size issue and variance issue. If not, then I'd imagine JTs performs better than QJs in a 3b pot, due to the ability of making more straights and also less reverse implied odds. Villains are prob 3b AQ/KQ more often than AJ/KJ/QJ in general.

    Also on low boards, I think people might be more wary of AQ floating them, so they will be more likely to bluff/bet J/Tx on later streets than maybe Qx hitting.

    Calling K2-KTs
    In terms of why K2-KTs perform so well. If it's not variance, then it might be the fact that people will often 3b and barrel Kxx boards, but generally only have AK and some KQ in 3b pots. We don't have the reverse implied odds of KQ and hitting the Q and losing to AQ/KK/AA. ALso if we flop our kicker with K2-KTs, and a K hits on the turn or river we're for sure going to catch his bluffs.

    Calling Axs
    This is in contrast to Axs, where I believe people 3b much wider range of Ax hands than Kx hands, so we can be dominated a lot more often. People also perceive Ax being more in our range than Kx, so they might barrel Axx flops less once we call than Kxx.

    KJ
    I'm not sure why KJ performs so well, or better than KQ. Could be sample size issue again, or it could be similar reasoning to why K2-KTs does well and why JTs does better than QJs.

    AQ sucking?
    Just based on gut feel, I'm pretty sure my frequency of hitting an ace when calling AQ is MUCH lower than expectation over the last year or two. This could contribute to the marginal loss rate. Another reason is that I just think AQ is a tempting hand to float low boards, but a hand you will likely fold to barrels later so that could expand the losses. Playing fit or fold with it seems too nitty though. Also again the reverse implied odds of flopping a Qxx here, as we are really never folding, but might be hard to stack worse often, as villain would only have KQ that could really be stacked.

    Other thoughts?
    If anyone else has any further thoughts let me know. Or if anyone has big samples of hands and wants to post a similar list of win/loss rates for calling 3b I'd love to see that and see how it compares. Maybe I just suck with some hands.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  59. #134
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Breaking pairs up a bit more:

    -calling 3b - pairs 66 and down, -0.66 bb per hand (255) - profitable
    -calling 3b - pairs 77-99, -3.52 bb per hand (243) - not profitable

    Clearly I'm peeling the higher mid pairs preflop and then not finding the fold button early enough post-flop, whereas I'm easily playing set or forget with 22-66.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  60. #135
    You go really deep into this statistical analysis. How big and how far back is your sample size? I'm wondering how long it can stay valid to look at it, I personally have a feeling my game is evolving and changing quite quickly.
  61. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackvance View Post
    You go really deep into this statistical analysis. How big and how far back is your sample size? I'm wondering how long it can stay valid to look at it, I personally have a feeling my game is evolving and changing quite quickly.
    Yah I do agree, my game does change pretty frequently. I'd imagine my playing in 3b pots hasn't change THAT much but yes, this sample is about 220k hands over the last two yrs.

    So yah I'm sure there have been some changes in there.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  62. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    Breaking pairs up a bit more:

    -calling 3b - pairs 66 and down, -0.66 bb per hand (255) - profitable
    -calling 3b - pairs 77-99, -3.52 bb per hand (243) - not profitable

    Clearly I'm peeling the higher mid pairs preflop and then not finding the fold button early enough post-flop, whereas I'm easily playing set or forget with 22-66.
    check the hands over and see what board textures you're peeling

    I see a lot of ppl peel on stuff like 77 on Axx which is a pretty big leak vs almost anyone w/o flopping a set
    Last edited by Micro2Macro; 06-05-2013 at 12:49 AM.
  63. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro View Post
    check the hands over and see what board textures you're peeling

    I see a lot of ppl peel on stuff like 77 on Axx which is a pretty big leak vs almost anyone w/o flopping a set
    Yah I'm pretty sure i'm not peeling on Axx. I'm almost guaranteed peeling low boards or T high boards and then finding a fold waaay too late (or just never finding a fold, and stacking off). Or yesterday for example, peeled 88 to hit a set. Preflop cbettor c/r 942ss i call, and jams 7 turn I call and lose to KK. So much for my set plan!
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  64. #139
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    After checking out some 2p2 posts today, I've started thinking that I might be calling too tight from BB vs BTN on dry boards. Mostly due to the post discussing players c/c Ax on K74 rainbow, and me feeling like I rarely c/c in this spot.

    Decided to do some equity calculations vs. 41% btn steal range, assuming most of the range my cbet on dry Kxx, Jxx type boards. Also decided to compare different hands on diff boards to see how some Ax compare.

    In a situation where villain cbets once, and checks back turn, our pot odds dictates needing about 29%. In a spot where villain double barrels often, we'll generally need about 42% equity.

    Clearly in spots where villain generally fires once and shuts down, Ax should be part of our flop c/c range pretty often.



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    Last edited by griffey24; 06-06-2013 at 10:59 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  65. #140
    I almost never do this, but it's interesting. I do see quite a lot of people doing this.
  66. #141
    griffey24's Avatar
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    I'm about to switch sites, cause betfair is moving from ongame to ipoker soon, so hopefully this is a parting gift from betfair and a good omen for whatever the next site ends up being.... stars?

    $1/$2 No Limit Holdem
    6 Players
    Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

    Stacks:
    UTG ($421.20) 211bb
    UTG+1 ($197) 99bb
    Hero (CO) ($206.35) 103bb
    BTN ($264) 132bb
    SB ($200) 100bb
    BB ($209.10) 105bb

    Pre-Flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO
    1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $6, Hero raises to $18, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $12

    Flop: ($39, 2 players)
    UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $30, UTG+1 calls $30

    Turn: ($99, 2 players)
    UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $25, UTG+1 goes all-in $149, Hero calls $124

    River: ($397, 2 players, 1 all-in)

    Final Pot: $397
    UTG+1 shows

    Hero shows


    Hero wins $394 (net +$197)

    UTG+1 lost $197
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  67. #142
    Nice. I've only had two 1-card royals so far. Btw what other sites are you looking at besides stars?
  68. #143
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackvance View Post
    Nice. I've only had two 1-card royals so far. Btw what other sites are you looking at besides stars?
    I have no clue.. any suggestions?

    I've only ever played on Interpoker, Pokerstars and Betfair. I'm a very monogamous poker player lol. I can't multi-site like some ppl.

    Ideally I'd want good 1/2-2/4 volume and probably try playing some tourneys.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  69. #144
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    I thought Betfair moved to ipoker a couple of months ago and were running ipoker skin whilst still keeping the ongame skin running.

    How do you find traffic living in canada. Most people in your time zone are banned from the euro networks so your evening fish are more likely to be on sites with payout difficuties or do you find that there are enough south americans to compensate or do you find that you play in your afternoons on the euro networks to take advantage of the euro fish .?
  70. #145
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    oh and next few days ..play stars whilst the 100 billionth hand promo is on . 100k for winning it .
  71. #146
    I bet there are people 200-tabling just going for this prize. There are also a lot of milestone hands, which you get $5k for that I saw.
  72. #147
    griffey24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Keith View Post
    I thought Betfair moved to ipoker a couple of months ago and were running ipoker skin whilst still keeping the ongame skin running.

    How do you find traffic living in canada. Most people in your time zone are banned from the euro networks so your evening fish are more likely to be on sites with payout difficuties or do you find that there are enough south americans to compensate or do you find that you play in your afternoons on the euro networks to take advantage of the euro fish .?
    Hmmm I actually didn't realize canadians were banned from any sites?

    Betfair traffic has definitely fallen off as of late. Could be due to the half move to Ipoker. Yah they did already move, but the ongame side is closed in a few days. I hadn't moved any money over cause I heard ipoker software is so crappy/tilting.

    Yah I think i'll probably give stars a go!

    When is this 100 billionth hand supposed to go down?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  73. #148
    June 13th 5pm according to Lex Veldhuis. Might as well try bink it
    Nine to five is how to survive - I ain't trying to survive / I'm trying to live it to the limit and love it a lot //

    Can offer RB deals on most sites, PM me.
  74. #149
    Quote Originally Posted by Alexos View Post
    June 13th 5pm according to Lex Veldhuis. Might as well try bink it
    My favorite poker player (and a dutchie) after watching his plays on youtube! My friend met him at a live event.
  75. #150
    Hello Alexos - Here we are, halfway through your make-or-break year. How would you say it's going? GL the rest of the way!
    Explain...what I do for a living without saying "I make monies in da 600 enels by pwnin' tha donk bitches". Instead I say "I'm a online financial redistribution broker". - Sasquach991

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