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Turned a set... ZOOM 25nl

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  1. #1

    Default Turned a set... ZOOM 25nl

    The guy on my right was a fish and I think he has a pretty strong hand given his min raise to the UTG raiser. So i think flatting with 44, given that the guy behind is going to call almost 100%, I have odds.

    When he bets the turn, I have to raise, I beat everything but QQ, JJ. But his flop check is definately suspicious, I dont feel like I can just flat though given the board texture.

    Thoughts?

    PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Hero (Button) ($33.86)
    SB ($34.04)
    BB ($22.44)
    UTG ($67.25)
    MP ($30.76)
    CO ($21.29)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4
    UTG bets $0.75, 1 fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds, UTG calls $0.75

    Flop: ($4.85) J, Q, 6 (3 players)
    UTG checks, CO checks, Hero checks

    Turn: ($4.85) 4 (3 players)
    UTG checks, CO bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $9, Hero raises to $32.36 (All-In), CO calls $10.79 (All-In)

    River: ($44.43) 3 (2 players, 2 all-in)

    Total pot: $44.43 | Rake: $2
  2. #2
    Hand is played fine, imo. If you say he's a fish you still beat some hands he could play this way which makes you a slight favorite (and that's me assigning a tight range). Add TPTK and two pair (fish can min-3bet pre with QJs) then you crush him.

    edit: Didn't see your turn sizing. Raise bigger.
    Last edited by tiltingdonkey; 10-20-2012 at 05:24 AM.
  3. #3
    kmind's Avatar
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    Raise bigger on turn but it's just a cooler. Flop check makes it more likely he has you crushed but he still has combos that we crush
  4. #4
    What are you doing pre flop? Just fold.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
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    Why is UTG raise/calling always?
  6. #6
    supa's Avatar
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    Why do you have odds?
    “Right thoughts produce right actions and right actions produce work which will be a material reflection for others to see of the serenity at the center of it all”

    Put hero on a goddamn range part II- The 6max years

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    start using your brain more and vagina less

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  7. #7
    rpm's Avatar
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    fold pre. as played raise more and look to get it in. expect to see sets lots and poorly played AA/KK often enough for getting the money in to be profitable
  8. #8
    kmind's Avatar
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    Interested to hear why you guys like folding preflop and don't think UTG is calling almost always.

    Not saying it's correct but I'd always call pre in this spot.
  9. #9
    supa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kmind View Post
    Interested to hear why you guys like folding preflop and don't think UTG is calling almost always.

    Not saying it's correct but I'd always call pre in this spot.
    I think UTG is almost never folding pre but that doesn't mean we can expect him to get his stack in. CO doesn't have a big enough stack to set mine, which is the only reason we would be calling here imo. I mean are we really gonna call a min 3bet and then 3 streets with 44?
    “Right thoughts produce right actions and right actions produce work which will be a material reflection for others to see of the serenity at the center of it all”

    Put hero on a goddamn range part II- The 6max years

    Quote Originally Posted by d0zer View Post
    start using your brain more and vagina less

    Quote Originally Posted by kingnat View Post
    Members who's signature is a humorous quote about his/herself made by someone who is considered a notable member of the FTR community to give themselves a sense of belonging.
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by supa View Post
    CO doesn't have a big enough stack to set mine
    .
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  11. #11
    Didn't notice CO's stack size. Yeah in game I think I fold this too.

    Conventional wisdom says 20:1 implied odds to set mine. However, we're almost 14:1 vs fish who we can expect to overplay his hands. Isn't it worth to set mine with these odds?
  12. #12
    rpm's Avatar
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    what makes you so sure CO has a strong range? i mean yeah he's a fish but unless we have specific stats i don't think we can put him squarely on KK+. some fish will do this with all kinds of pocket pairs, AK/AQs kind of stuff. plus UTG will 4bet some of the time forcing us to fold our equity, the fish wont pay us off with his "nut" hands on some boards, we'll get set-over-setted a very small amount of the time etc. because of these reasons i think it's a fold.
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by rpm View Post
    what makes you so sure CO has a strong range? i mean yeah he's a fish but unless we have specific stats i don't think we can put him squarely on KK+. some fish will do this with all kinds of pocket pairs, AK/AQs kind of stuff. plus UTG will 4bet some of the time forcing us to fold our equity, the fish wont pay us off with his "nut" hands on some boards, we'll get set-over-setted a very small amount of the time etc. because of these reasons i think it's a fold.
    Never said I was sure he has a strong range. In fact if you saw my first post you'd see me including QJs in his min-3betting range. This is just something I'm thinking about, i.e., playing small pairs vs fish.
  14. #14
    rpm's Avatar
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    i assumed you thought he had a strong range because you want to setmine and he needs to have a very strong range for setmining to be +EV here.
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by rpm View Post
    i assumed you thought he had a strong range because you want to setmine and he needs to have a very strong range for setmining to be +EV here.
    Well thats certainly why I called pre.
  16. #16
    I think it's a fair assumption.

    Vs a fish though, even if he has a weakish range I think we can still get his stack (or a sizable portion of that) if we knew he overplays hands. An example I can think of is if villain min-3 bets any Ax hands and the flop contains an A and he overplays TPNK then we can probably get all the money in. In a way, there's more opportunity for us for our set-mining to succeed.

    This could all be wrong of course, just something I'm thinking about.

    I do get your point about UTG though, so this is probably a wrong example of when to set-mine given less than 20:1 odds.
  17. #17
    What reads do we have on utg?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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