TPTK on fairly drawy river - Bet?

Villain was 28/0/1 over 38
range: 44, JJ, KJ, 9T, AT, KA, KQ, KT, K9, K8 but with so few hands I dont really know how he plays that range. Sets prob get raised on turn, but maybe not...
Not sure if any sort of bet on river is +EV but I dont know if giving up control is any better. If I was IP I would check here, what about OOP?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
Hero ($9.90)
BB ($9.86)
UTG ($18.10)
UTG+1 ($11.63)
CO ($10.36)
BTN ($8.94)
Dealt to Hero A K
fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.45, BB calls $0.35, BTN calls $0.35
FLOP ($1.35) 4 J K
Hero bets $1, BB calls $1, BTN folds
TURN ($3.35) 4 J K 7
Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50
RIVER ($8.35) 4 J K 7 Q
Hero ?

i open to 60 pre...

k8 is hardly in his range, you are beating K9s, KT and QT.... i doubt he has AT or T9 here that often, def has QT was more frequently due to the OESD on the flop....

if you check he is checking behind K9,KT,AK, maybe even KJ or QJ, and betting KQ, sets, and the few straights he has (also some of the KJ QJ ldo)...i doubt he is calling with TT here so i think against someone so passive you can check fold, if you think he will call with like AJ, TT, 99, JT then obviously you can consider betting (although then it becomes more likely that he will show up with AT/T9, and in saying this i obviously understand that adding combos we beat to a hand range dilutes it and makes it less likely for villain to have a particular holding, but in this case where i do not think he is calling 2 streets with many T9/AT to begin with, if you add in more shitty hands you beat you have to add in these shitty hands (only had gut shot whole way) that beat you...donno if im making sense ), so yea id check and then not 100% but probably fold

At FR a lot of times I'll take the bet check bet line with AK on a board like this, however, I think that betting the turn is probably better cause of the spade draw we picked up (thoughts on the turn?)

I really hate bet bet c/fing TPTK here or anywhere really since it gives villain the option to destroy us with any missed draws. I almost want to bet like 1.50 on the river and expect to get called by any Kx and almost any Qx. Villain is only going to jam better but you can still milk the other hands for a bit more value. This may be thin considering the villain but I dunno. c/f could actually be better here given the stats since this player seems to be the type who literally never bluffs though I think philly is wrong when he says that vill never bets AK when checked to but that is a tiny part of his range.

60 is a lot, most people say the formula is 4xbb + 1 per limper so 45 is pretty close to the 50 it should be.

K8o may hardly be in his range, but K8s definitely is, along with maybe even k4s

B/f is probably pretty close to marginal, but pretty straight forward and easy to play. I would bet something like half pot to let hands like K6s call, and expect him to show up with KQ a fair bit, but QT and K6s a lot of the time as well.

If you were in position, b/f for the same reason. But, since it's pretty marginal, checking behind wouldn't be the biggest mistake you could make.

Originally Posted by Donachello

At FR a lot of times I'll take the bet check bet line with AK on a board like this, however, I think that betting the turn is probably better cause of the spade draw we picked up (thoughts on the turn?)

I really hate bet bet c/fing TPTK here or anywhere really since it gives villain the option to destroy us with any missed draws. I almost want to bet like 1.50 on the river and expect to get called by any Kx and almost any Qx. Villain is only going to jam better but you can still milk the other hands for a bit more value. This may be thin considering the villain but I dunno. c/f could actually be better here given the stats since this player seems to be the type who literally never bluffs though I think philly is wrong when he says that vill never bets AK when checked to but that is a tiny part of his range.

1- i agree i like a bet/check/bet line a lot better...im never as worried about backdoor flushes (although obviously still cautious when someone goes nuts after they complete)

2- hes 28/0 what is he ever going nuts with? also what missed draws can he have? he picked up SDV with QT and he just completed a straight with AT and T9 (if they are in his range ldo)

3- if, like tyrn says, he has all the way down to K4s then this is a lot more bet/foldy cause he has K5s, k6s, k8s, k9s

4- reason i bump it to 60 pre is because fish that are 28/0 will generally be willing to call .6 just as much as .45 after they limp and that forces them to make a bigger mistake while we are crushing them. Also if BB decides to come along we has great SPR when an A or K hits to get it in without ever having to bet over 2/3 pot (minor bonus, my biggest concern is exploiting the fish for more preflop when theres like 0 difference in what hes calling each bet with)

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

2- hes 28/0 what is he ever going nuts with? also what missed draws can he have? he picked up SDV with QT and he just completed a straight with AT and T9 (if they are in his range ldo)

Was just referring to the general spot not this particular one. I also agree that raising to .50-.60 better than .45 here