TPGK vs straight forward player

Villain is 15/6/1.8 AF w/ a 3bet of 1% over 1K hands
Never seen him get outta line. Plays ABC and I havent seen him get to showdown hardly ever.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($15.02)
MP2 ($19.55)
CO ($23.89)
villain (Button) ($21.84)
SB ($25)
BB ($22.58)
Hero (UTG) ($30.77)
UTG+1 ($20.30)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q
Hero bets $1, 4 folds, villain calls $1, 2 folds
Flop: ($2.35) 2, A, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.57, villain raises $4.32, Hero ?

On the flop I give his reraising range as:
22, 66, AT+
Stoving this gives me 49.3%.....
I believe he flats AK pre given his low 3bet % so I can be against better A's.
There are no draws for him to semibluff that I believe he calls pre with (like 3,4) so he's either doing this for value, or he is bluffing which I haven't seen him do (or at least get caught doing)I really dont think he raises A9, A7 etc....and I doubt he calls pre with that anyway. It was a really tough decision for me on this one.

Thoughts?

I would just fold prob tbh.

He doesn't seem like the type to get out of line and take chances. I agree with you in that I don't see him bluffing here hardly ever and the question is what is his value range? I don't think he'd raise AT, AJ. I mean, what's the point of him doing that?

It doesn't make much sense to raise a really strong hand on this flop (like if he has a set) unless he thinks you can't fold an A. That said, people do stupid things.

Given dry flop, not overly aggressive opp, that he flats your UTG raise, and that he has set mining stats, I'd lay this down.

If it's not a set, it's AK.

If it's a set, he would have been better off flatting the flop I think.

Dont discount the possibility that he called your raise preflop with either A2 or A6. Suited and on the button i would probably call and hope to hit a flop.

Also consider what range he puts you on? If he thinks you raised UTG with 10/10 JJ or QQ or even KK and he had any ace he might play pretty strongly. If you call you might freeze him if he thinks he going to have a kicker problem.

Three things come to mind:

1. He is not very aggressive at all. For anyone who doesn't understand, compare his VPIP/PFR with his AF.

2. AT and even AJ are unlikely to be in his range pre-flop, let alone in his flop raising range, which means you're way behind every single possible value hand he could have.

3. You would need him to be bluffing a high percentage of the time to make not folding +EV at all, and even then you're going to be facing two more streets out of position in a very large pot, meaning that you should be making mistakes on the side of folding too much here.

Pretty clear fold with up to AK, and even bottom set is interesting here.

Plus there's no way to get to showdown cheap being oop.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Three things come to mind:

1. He is not very aggressive at all. For anyone who doesn't understand, compare his VPIP/PFR with his AF.

2. AT and even AJ are unlikely to be in his range pre-flop, let alone in his flop raising range, which means you're way behind every single possible value hand he could have.

3. You would need him to be bluffing a high percentage of the time to make not folding +EV at all, and even then you're going to be facing two more streets out of position in a very large pot, meaning that you should be making mistakes on the side of folding too much here.

Pretty clear fold with up to AK, and even bottom set is interesting here.

fwiw i think AJ is in his preflop calling range and sometimes AT....but i agree its a fold i think its highly unlikely hes raising those hands on the flop.

hero folds
nh

Originally Posted by daven

hero folds
nh

+1