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TP in position
Villain is 19/17/inf with 16.7% 3b over 63 hands
$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
Stacks:
UTG gryczkaa ($25)
CO Hero ($25)
BTN IPlayOnlyAAKK ($41.79)
SB fishsticks6 ($41.33)
BB TheFrank13 ($84.15)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 5 players) Hero is CO
gryczkaa raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 3 folds
Flop: ($1.85, 2 players)
gryczkaa bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($4.85, 2 players)
gryczkaa bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50
River: ($11.85, 2 players)
gryczkaa bets $6.25, $6.25 to Hero ($19.25)?
In order to call the river bet we need 34.5% equity. He could be value betting quite a few hands though.
Hand 0: 67.391% 67.39% 00.00% 31 0.00 { KK+, 88, 22, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, KTs, QsJs, Qs9s, Js9s, AQo+, AcJs, AdJs, AhJs, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, KTo }
Hand 1: 32.609% 32.61% 00.00% 15 0.00 { KhQd }
This was my first attempt at a range for him and surprisingly it came out very close to the equity we need. I put in AQo and AsJx and AxJs as bluffs he might have. That's only 18 combos of bluffs. So, I'm really not sure about this hand because it seems like he's bluffing here with any frequency then this is a call.
Also, if he cbets this board with most of his range then he might also continue betting on the turn with lots of hands that have spades and when they miss the river he might fire another bet. This could be wishful thinking though.
Thoughts?
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