Top Two vs pre flop raising nit

Villain was 13/6/4.2 over 885 hands. His pfr in later position is %10.
I flat AK pre vs him b/c i feel if I 3bet he will play correctly after (ie continue with better and fold worse)
He generally is aggressive and plays straight up post flop. He doesnt get to showdown very often.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($46.03)
UTG+1 ($8.25)
MP1 ($5.35)
MP2 ($26.39)
Villain (MP3) ($28.82)
CO ($19.02)
Hero (Button) ($35.73)
SB ($18.10)
BB ($14.73)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A
4 folds, Villain bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.85) K, A, 2 (2 players)
Villain bets $1.23, Hero raises $3.80, Villain raises $5.14, Hero......???


I raised flop b/c I expect AJ, AQ to call. On this flop I doubt he's cbetting hands like mid pp's.
I didnt really think that he would shove the turn unless he had a set which is so unlikely but not impossible.

It's a min raise but that doesnt mean he's weak. I've seen lots of min raises with the nuts.
I think he raises with AQ+, AA, KK, 22. I dont know if he`s taking AJ this far....
I'll admit, I didnt have a plan for this occurence.

Can`t seem to figure what he`s repping and I have top 2 pair.

I think AJ spades and AQ spades, KK, AA, 22 seems like a solid range.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
6,930 games 0.005 secs 1,386,000 games/sec
Board: Ks Ah 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.999% 26.93% 00.07% 1866 5.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 73.001% 72.93% 00.07% 5054 5.00 { KK+, 22, AsQs, AsJs }

Dont know if hes doing that with QJss.

Why raise flop?

22 may even not be in his range.

You're chopping with AK a lot. I think it's reasonable to believe he's doing it with at least two other combos of hands besides AA and KK. I doubt 22 is in his range.

Basically so long as you think he'll call with worse with more than two combos shoving is +ev.

Very interesting hand

Originally Posted by JoeHaw

Basically so long as you think he'll call with worse with more than two combos shoving is +ev.

AA and KK have us significantly more crushed than we have AQss and AJss crushed, so the two combos we beat and two combos we lose to don't balance that easily.

Theres a good chance i stoved wrong but vs a range of available AA/KK/AK/AQs/AJs combo's you have 42% equity.

i don't put 22 in his range either

Why would he minraise a flush draw like that? hes never expecting you to fold here. WEIRD! id call and reassess turn, feeling behind

Call the initial bet for the same reasons you didn't 3b pre. Fold now.

I would call then reevaluate on the turn.

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Call the initial bet for the same reasons you didn't 3b pre. Fold now.

+1

I raised flop b/c I didnt want the 3rd spade killing the action. I also felt that given how I had AK, it was less likely for him to have AA or KK so he prob had AQ or another Ax he would call with.

he's not 3B'ing flop with AQ

he has at least AA,KK,AK (less to no weghting to 22)

which means you have ~ 35% equity vs his range

so fold after the flop minraise

and calling his cbet is def best

Originally Posted by Vinland

I raised flop b/c I didnt want the 3rd spade killing the action. I also felt that given how I had AK, it was less likely for him to have AA or KK so he prob had AQ or another Ax he would call with.

exactly what range do you think a 13/6 is opening from mp?