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Top Two Pair Facing Flop Raise

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  1. #1

    Default Top Two Pair Facing Flop Raise

    Villain is tight, 12/8/2 TotalAF 3, TotalAFq 42.

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

    UTG ($11.37)
    UTG+1 ($4)
    MP1 ($10.53)
    MP2 ($13.47)
    MP3 ($11.96)
    CO ($12.58)
    Button ($13.03)
    SB ($9.80)
    Hero (BB) ($11.77)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 10
    5 folds, CO bets $0.35, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25

    Flop: ($0.75) J, 9, 10 (2 players)
    Hero bets $0.70, CO raises to $3

    My range for him after he raises is 99+, 78s, KQ, which i have ~35% equity against. My donk will suggest to him a made hand, which i am defending against the draw. He doesnt hesitate and rolls over the top.

    Hero folds?

    Edit: I am giving villain credit that he wont chase his draws bc he doesnt have the pot odds.
    Last edited by Openside; 01-27-2013 at 09:29 PM.
  2. #2
    supa's Avatar
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    I'd add AA/KK and prolly take out 78s (unless you've seen him raise sc's in the CO) and see watcha come up with.

    *edit* nevermind- missed your + after 99
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  3. #3
    daviddem's Avatar
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    He may well put you on a draw as well when you donk.
    Also if you think he is raising his overpairs, why would he not raise AJ also?
    Does he never raise AsKs? AQ?

    Code:
    Board: Js 9s Tc
    Dead:  
    
        equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
    Hand 0:     49.811%      48.79%     01.02%              30916           644.50   { JhTh }
    Hand 1:     50.189%      49.17%     01.02%              31155           644.50   { 99+, AsKs, AQs-AJs, KQs, AQo-AJo, KQo }
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  4. #4
    Hey Daviddem, thanks for commenting.

    He may well, i guess i am biasing his play style with mine. To him i am on a draw or TP, which he crushes if he is on a draw with over cards. I'd expect him to call here with that range. His raise smelt to me like a bet to protect.
  5. #5
    daviddem's Avatar
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    meh... maybe call and re-evaluate turn. If he has a top pair/over pair type of hand, there are also tons of turn cards that are going to slow him down.
    Virginity is like a bubble: one prick and it's all gone
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  6. #6
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Hero is usually a slight dog to Villain's raising range. A large re-raise isn't attractive because it gets Villain to fold some hands that we would beat, and this makes his range stronger. Calling is a possibility since we don't really expect him to try to bluff us with his one pair hands if the draws come in. I don't mind calling the flop and bet/folding on safe turns. Folding the flop might be better as an exploitative measure.
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    Folding the flop might be better as an exploitative measure.
    Can you explain this point?
  8. #8
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deucebag View Post
    Can you explain this point?
    To clarify, I'm saying that calling might be -EV if Villain plays well on the turn/river. He probably doesn't, though.
  9. #9
    So he's never raising QJ, KJ, AJ, NFDs?

    If hes such a nit I guess I could see that but meh. I'd be very hard pressed to not ship here, or flatting and jamming any blank turns (only a psb after we call).

    Decide or look at notes to see how he plays his NFDs, pair +draws, etc and go from there.
  10. #10
    Fnord's Avatar
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    You're out of position.
    You have a pretty goodish hand.
    I would just ship it in.
    If he's folding anything to a ship here, LOL!

    It feels like a close spot in term of equity and by shipping you avoid making a really terrible mistake and range merge with your big draws.

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