top 2 ugly river

how did I do? what should I do now? really wanna chk/fold
villain is unknown 24/18 less than an orbit

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($10.09)
UTG+1 ($4.69)
MP1 ($10.31)
MP2 ($9.85)
kickass (MP3) ($10.15)
CO ($14.37)
BTN ($4.19)
SB ($4.20)
BB ($7.81)

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 9 players) kickass is MP3
4 folds, kickass raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, 2 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95, 3 players)
BB checks, kickass bets $0.70, CO calls $0.70, BB folds

Turn: ($2.35, 2 players)
kickass bets $1.80, CO calls $1.80

River: ($5.95, 2 players)
kickass ($7.35)?

c/f

tough spot. pre, flop, and turn look good.
River is getting pretty thin on that board but bet-fold $3 is an option worth considering, else check-decide based on sizing. Depends on whether you think he'd bet his missed flush draws and worse two pair when checked to.

Originally Posted by bikes

c/f

.

I check/decide. I'm calling a small bet.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

I check/decide. I'm calling a small bet.

how big is small?

$3.5 maybe

Villain will bet all Qx hands when checked to and raise when bet in to; and I'd like to think he's most likely checking behind the with rest of his range. So check/fold is good for me.

Looks too dangerous a board for villain to bluff his missed FDs. Given the action, if he has a piece that's not a Q he probably checks it behind. Doubt he bets anything other than a Q tbh so maybe c/f. That is what I would do in game.

Spent a minute or so just now thinking whether this could be a thin value bet. There is a lot of AsXs that might call and a lot of worse 2 pair that might call. If more of his range is not sets or Qx than is, is this not a bet/fold?

If everyone would fold to a bet, surely its a prime opportunity for villain to turn his lower 2p into a bluff, no? That's ky reasoning for a c/c.

Originally Posted by DanAronG

If everyone would fold to a bet, surely its a prime opportunity for villain to turn his lower 2p into a bluff, no? That's ky reasoning for a c/c.

No.

1) there are maybe 4 combos of worse two pairs and AJ would have to be wicked retarded to turn itself into a bluff.

2) villain's unknown which means we're unknown too

3) it's 10nl. If he thinks he can just willy nilly get regs off top two, then he's crazy

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

There is a lot of AsXs that might call

I assume you didnt notice that I have the As.

Minbetting river, calling shove, folding to any decent sized raise.

Originally Posted by Nekrogovner

Minbetting river, calling shove, folding to any decent sized raise.

Lol wut. You wanna gay bet the river to induce spaz then fold to a raise? Explain pls.

Originally Posted by kickass

I assume you didnt notice that I have the As.

lol. Doubt it's thin value then.

Originally Posted by StarGrinder

Lol wut. You wanna gay bet the river to induce spaz then fold to a raise? Explain pls.

Villain will never fold. Because folding to 0.10c is obv stupid.
Villain cannot raise any made hands to a decent size, or any size for that matter, because he knows he will always be shoved over by Qx. Therefore, he must call with all made hands.
The only other option is that villain shoves, and his shoving range will mostly be made of bluffs, made hands, and possibly but unlikely some Qx, because as we assumed, villain is more likely to make a decent raise with Qx rather then shove. Unless he thinks same way we do. And he probably doesn't because he wouldn't be messing around at NL10 if he does. Or didn't read what i just wrote here.

Originally Posted by Nekrogovner

Villain cannot raise any made hands to a decent size, or any size for that matter, because he knows he will always be shoved over by Qx.

Putting the rest of the post aside (which is putting a LOT aside lol), the only way villain should be displeased about raise/folding is if he thinks that we're 3b shoving the river with a balanced range, which is a massive lol to assume from a 10nl reg. To be clear, I don't think he should be raising the river for thin value much anyway, but his reasoning for that would mainly be because it's too thin and NOT because he's worried about being exploited by pure bluffs.

why no b/f

^I kinda agree with Tebow loverboy above. I feel like betting about 1/2 pot. Seems strange that he would call with a Q on flop unless it was AQ or KQ. I can see some 2pair hands in his range

You forgot QJ and QT of spades.