Theory question (based on a hand)

Ok so this one hand came up a couple of nights ago in a session I was playing.


$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Hero ($26.90)
UTG+1 Xcessive24 ($27.97)
CO dream64a ($23.67)
BTN Falcu ($86.52)
SB Boats_And_Hoes1 ($25)
BB foresk1n ($40.18)

Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG
Hero raises to $1, Xcessive24 raises to $3.50, 4 folds, Hero raises to $10.25, Xcessive24 calls $6.75

Flop: ($20.85, 2 players)
Hero bets $16.65, Xcessive24 calls $16.65

Turn: ($54.15, 2 players)

River: ($54.15, 2 players)

Final Pot: $54.15
Xcessive24 shows

Hero shows


Xcessive24 wins $51.45 (net +$24.55)

Hero lost $26.90



I asked this guy in the chat after the hand (it was a talkative table btw) if he was willing to go all the way with this hand, why didn't he just ship preflop. He said that he wanted to wait and see a flop to see if it brought an A or K.

The more I think about it, the more I like his play. However, my intuition is saying that is is wrong/exploitable based on empirical evidence: if it was a great play why wouldn't lots of other players be doing it and specifically, good players?


I can't really think of a way to exploit this besides c/f the flop unless we hit an A or K. But aren't we losing money if we 4b and have to c/f any flop that doesn't have an A or K unless we're also making money when we do make our hand?

Dunno lets get some thoughts.

you both play bad
wtf is with your 4-bet sizing?

as for him.... basically he's assuming you only have AK (wrong), doesn't realise that an ace or king on the flop is in face less likely if you hold AA or KK, and you can do the math on how often an A or K flops if you hold AK.

No. Do not like.

4bet sizing is awful, flop shove is awful. His call on the flop is fine but the reasoning behind what he did is pretty lol. When you shove this flop it's omgwtf-obvious you have AK since AA and KK have no reason to do so here.

You can't possibly 4bet bluff cronic 3betters at that amount and show a profit

This hand makes me cringe and smile at the same time knowing these are the stakes I play at. Everyone's play is pretty bad no offense.

Now that it is clear that this wasn't the way to play the hand, how would you all have done it?

Flat pre, play poker, etc

guys, tell me what you really think lol

Originally Posted by daven

you both play bad
wtf is with your 4-bet sizing?

as for him.... basically he's assuming you only have AK (wrong), doesn't realise that an ace or king on the flop is in face less likely if you hold AA or KK, and you can do the math on how often an A or K flops if you hold AK.

Alright I think its about 35% that an A or K will be on flop but I'll prove it just to make sure.

I'll do the probability that one doesn't hit the flop then subtract this from 100%.


% no AK on flop = (44/50) * (43/49) * (42/48) = 0.6757

1 - 0.6757 = 0.3243 = 32.4% of the time an A or K will be on the flop when you hold AK.

standard 4b size is 28-30 bbs? What size would everyone do here, 7.50ish?

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Flat pre, play poker, etc

ok so I wasn't trying to get feedback on actual hand but clearly its terrible so reads on villain are 23/17/3.2 with a 7.7 3b. If you're not 4bing AK oop then what is your 4b range and what is your flatting (of the 3b) range?

Originally Posted by kfaess

standard 4b size is 28-30 bbs? What size would everyone do here, 7.50ish?

I was under the impression that everyone thought your 4b was too small? ;(

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

I was under the impression that everyone thought your 4b was too small? ;(

I was under the impression it was too big. I would think 7.50-8.00 is good, but I wanna hear from the guys that lol at the 4bet size w/o suggesting a better size.

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

I was under the impression that everyone thought your 4b was too small? ;(

Me three
arguments for smaller > bigger?

First of all I don't like opening to $1 because 4betting becomes awkward. If you open to .85 he will most likely 3bet smaller to say $3 and we can 4bet to $6.5 or an amount similar that doesn't let him play perfectly against us. Your sizing OBVIOUSLY commits you no matter what you have.

What you need to do is figure out some 4bet/call and 4bet/fold math. I'm too lazy to do it right now but basically you should figure out a good 4betting size that allows you to fold with your bluffs. Raising too high commits you with your bluffs too.

Originally Posted by kmind

First of all I don't like opening to $1 because 4betting becomes awkward. If you open to .85 he will most likely 3bet smaller to say $3 and we can 4bet to $6.5 or an amount similar that doesn't let him play perfectly against us. Your sizing OBVIOUSLY commits you no matter what you have.

What you need to do is figure out some 4bet/call and 4bet/fold math. I'm too lazy to do it right now but basically you should figure out a good 4betting size that allows you to fold with your bluffs. Raising too high commits you with your bluffs too.

We have a 4b bluff range utg? Even though it's 6max I thought our opening range was still limited to pretty much value hands /confused

Depends...I mean at 6max sometimes I'm opening things that I'm not trying to get in. You should definitely have hands you don't want to stack off with in your UTG range sometimes. Depends depends depends.

Originally Posted by kmind

Depends...I mean at 6max sometimes I'm opening things that I'm not trying to get in. You should definitely have hands you don't want to stack off with in your UTG range sometimes. Depends depends depends.

ldo we have hands that we don't stack with, but is any of our range *good* 4b bluff hands? isn't most of our range dominated by folding (like medium-small pocket pairs/our worst broadway hands we're opening),flatting(hands that need to keep his range wide because calling is profitable but 4betting makes him play perfectly), or raising for value(isn't the rest of our range at this point lolstrong)? It seems like the only hands in our 4b bluff range are hands that are bad to 4b bluff with imo. still /confused ;(

Originally Posted by Penneywize

Me three
arguments for smaller > bigger?

<@spoon_busy> if you were bluffing would you 4b small or large
<Imthefish> small
* HarleyGuy ([email protected]) Quit (Quit: Leaving.)
<@spoon_busy> is there an advantage to 4betting large for value
<Imthefish> no
<@spoon_busy> [/convo]

Well, different people have different ideas on what hands to 4bet bluff with. I usually like to include hands with blockers so like AJ/AT/KQ/KJ/QJ etc. I mean SOMETIMES 4betting/folding 22 is betting than folding to his 3bet as well as 4bet/calling. It depends.

I rarely rarely flat 3bets OOP. I know much better players than I will ever be are the same way so I guess I use more hands to 4bet bluff than call. But it depends again. Sometimes I never have a 4bet bluff range. I'm getting off topic.

4betting QJ UTG facing a 3b of a 25NL random in UTG+1 is absolutely retarded.

he has QQ+ when he flats your 4b here due to its massive size there is no way he's calling worse

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

he has QQ+ when he flats your 4b here due to its massive size there is no way he's calling worse

So c/f the flop?

I didn't say I wasn't 4bing AK, I'm just not 4bing AKs cause suited hands are cool and have a lot more flops to continue on then offsuited AK.

Theory, eh.

In theory you stacked off with A-high against some moran who has you smoked.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Theory, eh.

In theory you stacked off with A-high against some moran who has you smoked.

He's right you know, now that I think about it. Going all-in when you haven't got anything and can't be sure your opponent is going to fold doesn't look too good.
As for the opening bet, I can see the point of view that says opening at $1 makes the 3-bet higher and that drives up the 4-bet, however, the $1 was a fair size compared to the pot, perhaps even a little low. A smaller bet might have encouraged a pot steal attempt anyway and that would likely have led to same result at the end.

Agree to disagree. I rarely open up for more than pot unless there are limpers/reads whatever. But if that works for you then great. I also do not understand the "pot steal attempt"? Are you talking about preflop still?

The 4x open is based on my position PF. I 4x from UTG, pot from HJ/CO, and 3x from the BU. Although I'm considering potting it from all positions except BU, I'll have to experiment.

This is based on a post I read on 2p2, don't really want to get into the theory of it itt.

Theory, eh.

In theory you stacked off with A-high against some moran who has you smoked.

Well the original point of the thread was to discuss how to combat someone who calls your 4bs with QQ or JJ type hand when you have AK. I didn't realize how bad I played the hand so I guess making a smaller and less committing 4b sort of solves the problem because then I don't feel like I'm not going to fold any flop. That and actually slowing down for a moment and doing a bit of hand reading before I shove all my chips in.

Originally Posted by kfaess

. I 4x from UTG, pot from HJ/CO, and 3x from the BU..

std

don't see why everyone is hating on the flop shove. wtf else are you supposed to do here with your entire range that you're not c/fing

Originally Posted by Bbickes

don't see why everyone is hating on the flop shove. wtf else are you supposed to do here with your entire range that you're not c/fing

This was along my thinking at table. I said, well I'm not folding the flop with less than a psb so I guess I'll just ship it.

K so after reading and luhling through the posts about shoving wif nothing when u dont know when ur oppenent is gonna fold.

open potting is fine, its a matter of style and critizing it is probably a poor choice as everyone has their own style and 3xing 3.5xing and 4xing all have their merits. as does 2xing. anywho.

yah yer 4b is pretty big but again imo thats totally fine as well, you don't expect people to fold to 4b's and if we're only 4bing QQ+ AKs+ is fine to make big 4bs when people never fold. This being a talkative table and him talking prolly means hes a fish and is not folding no matter wat u make yer 4b size so this is fine.

and on the flop there is obv only one play and thats to jam you mebbe fold TT, JJ and some chops. which is good we want them to fold. if he has AA or KK nh sir and QQ well we still have 6 outs. shit i've seen all kinds of halirious things were people call 4bs and call it off wif like AJ high. So obv shove is fine.

dunno why people are being such douches when this hand is completely std.

His big 4bet size for sure is fine if they're never folding and our 4bet range is just nut hands but that's where I disagreed. It's rare I guess but I have 5bet bluff shoved at these stakes. I guess I give people more credit at 25NL than I should but he does have "reggy" stats.

And yeah 4x is fine to open though I prefer pot and I even stated if it works for others then that's fine I choose a different strat.

If hero4 4bets light OOP,
1. villian is more likely to flat our 4bet with 77-JJ which is -EV for hero.
2. hero has less fold equity from hands like TT-QQ, and AK which is -EV for hero.

IMO, bet size was appropriate.

imo you're making mistakes if you're only 4bing strong value hands even at 25NL. Of course you have to pick the right people to 4b and the right times, but for the most part 98% of people give my 4bs so much credit that I'm burning money not 4bing the chronic 3bers.

So I guess that would make my sizing bad because I now have a value 4b size and a bluff 4b size? Is that what you guys are getting at?

I looked him up on ptr after the hand because I also noticed his std stats combined with unorthodox play with QQ. I figured he either owned me hard or was worse than his stats indicate. He has lost something like $6000 in online poker lulz. Anyway, that's irrelevant to the hand because I didn't know this at the table.

That's what I am getting at kfaess. I do apologize if I came off rude. You have a valid question and I am sorry we hijacked your thread.

(and paratrooper people rarely flat 4bets and if you do the math you can figure out good times to 4bet bluff and show immediate profits as well as forcing villain to push/fold which is good for us too and is a good example of "leverage" that balugawhale talks about a lot)

No man its all good.

Looking back I think what you and Bbickes are saying is also what jyms was saying so point taken I'll make sure my 4b size is a standard amount so that I can also 4b bluff and show a profit in certain situations.

thanks for the feedback, even tho thread didn't turn out how I expected I still learned some stuff.

jfc you guys make 25nl way moar harder than it is. find fish and play pots with them. they are fucking everywhere. avoid getting into high variance reg wars that serve no purpose whatsoever other than ego stroking.

srsly i learned from mah good friend ge00fish, yeah u may have an edge on this reg who plays bad and u can make cool plays and what not but its much easier to just find fish and take their money when they dont make cool plays and make redic moves postflop and preflop. not that anyone makes redic lines postflop at 25nl.

srsly i see you guys talk about 4b bluffing and this is a great example of a concept that should be obscure at the micros. much like the double float or the double/triple c/r. yas its rly cool when these plays work but frankly if someone is 3bing liek 10%+ and on your immed left, get up and find a different table. no im not advocating massive bumhunting but its far moar +EV just to leave the table and find a different spot than risk getting tilted because of some high variance reg war and ruining a session.

This seems to be getting much to complicated.
Preflop, Villain's range is wide enough that if he is betting like that you should be wary. Putting so much faith in your AK preflop only usually pays off if you actually hit something on the flop. In this case, Hero didn't.

Originally Posted by Tasha

This seems to be getting much to complicated.
Preflop, Villain's range is wide enough that if he is betting like that you should be wary. Putting so much faith in your AK preflop only usually pays off if you actually hit something on the flop. In this case, Hero didn't.

hmm explain why you think villain's 3-bet / flat huge 4-bet range is wide? I agree that only QQ+, AK is calling here ever, and the AK is very, very doubtful

disagree bbickes - the games at 25nl at least at FTP are like this a lot. I just had a reg shove 68s vs my JJ allin pre thinking I was isolating a limp. Maybe I'm somehow missing easier tables or something.

Originally Posted by Tasha

This seems to be getting much to complicated.
.

poker is far too complicated for me too

Ok, so when you RR pre flop, what was your thought process? Yes do this with AA/KK where you crush his range.

But AK? what hand did you expect to get called / shoved by and be ahead of and 52%/48% doesnt count. With rake and even common sense its pointless doing this long term even if you put him on 22-JJ (not likely).

I think your thought process was "ooooh AK, sooted! I deserve to him this pot, huh?? raised me?? I will show him.....Damn QQ, bugger"

Originally Posted by daven

poker is far too complicated for me too

Are you suggesting that we should both take up Gin instead?
Or just me?

hmm explain why you think villain's 3-bet / flat huge 4-bet range is wide? I agree that only QQ+, AK is calling here ever, and the AK is very, very doubtful

I'm not sure myself now why I wrote 'wide', but what I meant is that he is only going to bet like that if he has a strong pair that already dominates AK. Could be I was thinking 'width of his range' only it didn't come out like that.

Originally Posted by Tasha

Are you suggesting that we should both take up Gin instead?

poker drives me to booze sometimes. Gin, if that's what i have to hand, for sure. I'm sure everyone who plays decent poker volume can relate

Originally Posted by daven

poker drives me to booze sometimes. Gin, if that's what i have to hand, for sure. I'm sure everyone who plays decent poker volume can relate

You can have the Gin and I'll take the Rummy and Coke

Jack/rocks, crown/rocks, jameson/rocks...

or str8 up cuz dey all rocks.