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Shove turn?

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  1. #1
    kmind's Avatar
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    Default Shove turn?

    The main villain is running 18/12 over 80 hands. Cbet 29%. Other callers are fish (76/20 and a 37/4 over small samples).

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    SB ($28.03)
    BB ($32.52)
    UTG ($29.20)
    MP ($28.26)
    Hero (CO) ($32.04)
    Button ($51.62)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q
    1 fold, MP bets $0.85, Hero calls $0.85, Button calls $0.85, 1 fold, BB calls $0.60

    Flop: ($3.50) 3, 6, 4 (4 players)
    BB checks, MP bets $2, Hero calls $2, 2 folds

    Turn: ($7.50) A (2 players)
    MP bets $4.75, Hero?

    He cbets on a wet board into 3 others so he's strong but his bet size is very small. If it's any other diamond than the A then I would think differently but (even though a very small sample) he can't have smaller flushes really right? I mean JT or KJ I guess. I doubt he'll fold a set but he can fold 55. He can also still have 77-JJ/KK that will probably fold too. And his turn bet is smaller where it's almost saying "I'm just going to b/f if you raise" or am I looking too much into it? And yeah I guess it'd be more of a (semi)bluff.

    Meh maybe just call? Fold?
    Last edited by kmind; 12-30-2010 at 01:38 PM.
  2. #2
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    maybe his small bets says :" call, is so little money, isnt it?" may be that.

    anyway... a minraise on turn will make him fold any PP . you will be called by sets and AK, AQ, especially with Kd. if he shoves, fold.

    then c/f river unless you hit the Q or another diamond.
  3. #3
    I agree JT or KJ are in a 18/12 range in MP 6max.
  4. #4
    I don't understand your play on any streets including preflop....
    [00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
    [00:30] <DC> daven
    [00:30] <DC> on my hand?
    [00:30] <daven> yep
    [00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
    [00:30] <daven> nice reason
    [00:30] <daven> no further questions
    [00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

    Problem officer...?
  5. #5
    I like raise/folding this flop vs the main villein and the 37/4 fish and raise/get in vs 76/20.

    As played fold imo.
  6. #6
    kmind's Avatar
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    Donachello - Well preflop I'd rather call than raise vs. someone with that those stats and not much more information. The main reason to 3bet would be if the fish have shown a tendency to call them a decent amount. It's not profitable to 3bet unless MP has a 3bet calling range/opens up a wide enough range/the fish are likely to call. Because I had very vague reads in 3bet pots I elected to shore my calling range and flat.

    As for the flop, yeah I agree I can raise for sure and be profitable. If it was just me vs. MP I would have done so but I felt compelled to see how the fish reacted to the cbet. If either of them flat then I feel extremely good about my hand. If one of them raises, I can see what MP does first before making my decision.
  7. #7
    kmind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Razvan729 View Post
    maybe his small bets says :" call, is so little money, isnt it?" may be that.

    anyway... a minraise on turn will make him fold any PP . you will be called by sets and AK, AQ, especially with Kd. if he shoves, fold.

    then c/f river unless you hit the Q or another diamond.
    a small raise on the turn did cross my mind but I'm not sure if I'm committed once I raise small.
  8. #8
    raise flop. your hand is under repped, there's fish in the pot who aren't folding FDs/str8 draws/overpairs and there are a lot of bad cards to come on the turn.
    .
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Donachello View Post
    I don't understand your play on any streets including preflop....
    +1
  10. #10
    kmind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Imthenewfish View Post
    +1
    Flop I agree with you guys. Preflop I don't. Still looking for your reasoning as well as what'd you do on the turn.
    Last edited by kmind; 12-30-2010 at 06:27 PM.
  11. #11
    seriously he cbets 29% and decides to barrel that card 3 way with fish in the pot, i don't see how we're like ever ahead and i really hate bluffing here, why can't folding be an option. his sizing doesn't mean "I'm just going to b/f if you raise", and you say he can't have a lot of flushes here, but he can't really have anything we beat here either. even if he does have the occasional PP, calling is better, but continuing with this hand seems really bad with fish left to act.
  12. #12
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    So, he's a nit running a strong line and you want to retard turn?
    weren't you going to play ABC some at the micros?
    pre is ok, depending on button and blinds, 3b is obviously fine too - i mean, fuck, 3b vs an mp open is fine vs a 12-9 in fullring.
    Flop makes no fucking sense at all.
  13. #13
    kmind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Imthenewfish View Post
    seriously he cbets 29% and decides to barrel that card 3 way with fish in the pot, i don't see how we're like ever ahead and i really hate bluffing here, why can't folding be an option. his sizing doesn't mean "I'm just going to b/f if you raise", and you say he can't have a lot of flushes here, but he can't really have anything we beat here either. even if he does have the occasional PP, calling is better, but continuing with this hand seems really bad with fish left to act.
    I appreciate your response but I did say folding was an option. I did fold.

    Daven - I'm playing ABC 95% of the time. Def. disagree with your 3b thinking.
  14. #14
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    Seems to me like meh pre-flop play and bad flop play makes turn much harder to play. So much money should have been in the pot by the turn that even a villain shove is a snapcall.
    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes
  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by kmind View Post
    Daven - Def. disagree with your 3b thinking.
    note - i said that 3b OR call are both fine pre

    but now i'm interested. Are you saying it's never ok to 3b QQ vs this kind of villain in this kind of spot? What's your plan if squeezed? what is your 3b range here?
    Last edited by daven; 12-31-2010 at 02:04 AM.
  16. #16
    I am definitely re-raising her pre-flop, and raising his bet on the flop with all these draws on the board.
  17. #17
    kmind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by daven View Post
    note - i said that 3b OR call are both fine pre

    but now i'm interested. Are you saying it's never ok to 3b QQ vs this kind of villain in this kind of spot? What's your plan if squeezed? what is your 3b range here?
    I am not saying that. Earlier I said that it can be ok to 3b as long as the fish have shown they can call or if MP has a wide 3b call range/a wide 4bet-get it in range. Both I hadn't had reads for in 3b pots.

    I was more referring to your 12-9 nit thingy . Unless we 3bet/fold, it's not profitable in most cases because most players don't have a wide 3-bet calling range and if they get it in with AK/QQ+ it's -EV.

    Ok so everyone agrees I should fold turn as played? And my flop play is that atrocious even if I was trying to "trap" in the fish/get it in on better turns vs. the reg?
  18. #18
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    If he opens AJo and folds it to your QQ 3 bet do you want to 3 bet?
  19. #19
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    JJ+ is worth 3bet pre, on a 4bet flat JJ,QQ, but KK+ is all in. JJ,QQ reevaluate on flop. this is the best play i thing up to 25nl with JJ+
  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Razvan729 View Post
    JJ+ is worth 3bet pre, on a 4bet flat JJ,QQ, but KK+ is all in. JJ,QQ reevaluate on flop. this is the best play i thing up to 25nl with JJ+
    Why? And why would you generalize that much? But most importantly, why do you think that? Prove it to me. I've run this in EV calculators that beg to differ.

    luck - specifically AJo? No, why?
    Last edited by kmind; 01-02-2011 at 04:04 AM.
  21. #21
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    3bet JJ there lots of chances you will make them fold PP, AJso, AQso.

    ussually 4bets he makes with JJ+, AKs, that is why you flat here JJ, QQ and reevaluate flop.

    you 4bet/shove KK+ for logic reasons, you hold 1st/2nd hand pre, isnt that logic to 4bet / shove?

    just flatting JJ+ gives you no info and gives him chance to get his set or his Q/K/A. if he wants to see the flop he needs to pay.
  22. #22
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    If you 3bet JJ then you have to fold to any further aggression in most cases against a reg. because of their 4betting range. You also get to add strength to your preflop calling range, which leads to various postflop moves we can make that we can't with weaker hands (for example, like everyone said, I can raise flop in this hand).

    The flatting 4bet thing is insanely exploitable but you are right that not many are going to exploit it at these stakes. But I still rarely flat 4bets and I'd need some specific reads before doing that.

    You don't explain what "logic reasons" are. Of course I agree to 4bet/shove KK+ but it's not just because it's KK/AA, there's more to it than just our cards at this time.

    Yes, flatting JJ+ gives you LESS info. but if you are competent you can play postflop profitably with it.

    You still need to be more specific if you want to prove me wrong.
  23. #23
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    i like to flat jacks and queens and 3 bet them depending on calling range of opponent. i don't like to flat a 4 bet ever, maybe if i think he's folding to the shove and i've got aces but thats about it.
    about the hand ... i think i would've made the same mistake of not reraising the flop and had to fold the turn. Ad is prolly the scariest card in the deck for you, really horrible you could easily be folding the best hand here if he's smart enough to barrel it.
    meh maybe just call...fold? you cant shove
  24. #24
    kmind's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kickass View Post
    i like to flat jacks and queens and 3 bet them depending on calling range of opponent. i don't like to flat a 4 bet ever, maybe if i think he's folding to the shove and i've got aces but thats about it.
    about the hand ... i think i would've made the same mistake of not reraising the flop and had to fold the turn. Ad is prolly the scariest card in the deck for you, really horrible you could easily be folding the best hand here if he's smart enough to barrel it.
    meh maybe just call...fold? you cant shove
    This is the "rare" time I flat a 4bet as well.

    And yeah I agree that shove is gross I just wanted to look at an alternative.
  25. #25
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    one and very important reason, you 3bet JJ+ because even holding JJ is the 4th hand as strenght preflop so playing it is +EV and you dominate the rest of the hands. playing JJ will make you money , look for graphs and you will see it a winning pre hand. these been said you want as much money in preflop, because you have a winning hand. suppose you flat JJ, QQ pre to a raise and you dont 3bet, and he is on AQso+, he hits nothing on the flop , maybe you get one street value for your hand but that all so 3bet pre and him calling will bring you more money. lets think you flat and no 3bet pre JJ,QQ, he opens A9s+ and AJo+, flop comes and he hits A, woulndt you want then to 3bet pre so that those money would have been yours? lets say you flat and no 3 bet JJ, QQ, flop comes 10 high, you get called or you call a bet, turn blank, again call or get called, river blank ... he shows bigger PP than yours or a set 23456789.... woudnt you want then to 3bet pre so that you know what you are facing and stop losing these money? so you see, 3bet pre is a way to make money if you know how to use it and what info to extract from it. this is why we 3bet, 4bet and shove 5bet, to make money, by adding more to the pot when we are winning and stop leaking ours in the pot when we are losing. this is why you play poker , to make money, you make money by playing the best hands with the best ways and the best info you can get!
    Last edited by Razvan729; 01-02-2011 at 03:30 PM.
  26. #26
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    JJ vs. JJ+/AK has 36.6% equity. Pretty sure JJ isn't dominating. You are missing some very important factors. Someone's opening range is NOT their 3bet calling range in almost all cases.

    As far as the rest of your post, you're not playing in the most EV way. You're playing in an +EV way, yes, but you're not creating the most EV. You're losing the bare minimum BUT also winning the bare minimum. I don't think you're understanding this and because of that you won't change your thought process I'm sure. Plus, there's Shania and each decision we make needs to create a more +EV decision in our whole strategy.

    This is NOT why we SHOULD 3bet, 4bet, and shove 5bet no offense.
  27. #27
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    i do agree that 3bet jacks can be good i just don't agree that you should always do it. mixing up your game makes things harder for you opponents. Given I'm folding alot on A high boards but i'm making mega bucks with set of jacks cos so many people think you should always 3 bet them. i don't like to have pre set plays but maybe thats why i suck at multi-tabling. How many times have you folded them pre when a fish has shoved into you, only for you to find out later he will shove AJ or pocket Ts.
  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by kmind View Post
    JJ vs. JJ+/AK has 36.6% equity. Pretty sure JJ isn't dominating. You are missing some very important factors. Someone's opening range is NOT their 3bet calling range in almost all cases.

    As far as the rest of your post, you're not playing in the most EV way. You're playing in an +EV way, yes, but you're not creating the most EV. You're losing the bare minimum BUT also winning the bare minimum. I don't think you're understanding this and because of that you won't change your thought process I'm sure. Plus, there's Shania and each decision we make needs to create a more +EV decision in our whole strategy.

    This is NOT why we SHOULD 3bet, 4bet, and shove 5bet no offense.
    his post is better than mine.
  29. #29
    Kmind,

    I don't think that your play is terrible, and I wonder why some people see it as such a bad line. I also understand your thoughts on why you think flatting against this person is best. I think a lot of the responses so far have been a bit results oriented in that, you caught a bad turn card and were forced to shut it down. Otherwise, I think you would have got close to max value from worse hands in villain's range.

    Anyways, last week I made a post ranting about how I was getting into troublesome spots in 3 bet pots and not knowing what to do most of the time. Since then I have done a great deal of work into understanding the dynamics of 3 bets in general and what they do to players ranges. I think I may have spotted a small leak in your thinking.

    The impression I got from reading your posts was that you flat hands like TT-QQ as a default vs most tight regs. You may even flat hands like AQ-AJ as a default vs these players which I think is fine but I think you can make better decisions by considering your 3 betting range as a whole and what your opponent thinks of that range.

    As an example lets assume that in your QQ hand, villain sees you as a tight regular with a tight 3 betting range (This may or may not have been true at the time but lets just say this for now). Because of this, you do not expect him to continue with much worse if you decide to 3 bet so we choose to flat. Flatting with a strong hand like QQ will give villain a chance to play incorrectly against us by putting in more money with hands that we beat. Lets say he has TT and we can assume that he would AT LEAST bet this flop thinking that he was ahead. We have just increased the value of our QQ vs this villain! (We have allowed him to make a mistake against our range that he may have otherwise not been able to make had we 3 bet.)

    Lets change it a bit. Lets say that we think villain views our 3 betting range as being wider than most for whatever reason. (Maybe we are on a card rush or maybe we have been making a lot of light 3 bets) His range for continuing to OUR 3 bets is now WIDER in this example because OUR 3 betting range is assumed to be WIDER. So now with QQ we can 3 bet this villain most of the time for value and be CONFIDENT that he will continue with a worse range. Depending on how crazy our villain thinks we are we can add even more hands to our value range (99,TT,JJ, AQ) for instance.

    So obviously it would make sense to have more 3 bet BLUFFS in our range for the first example( Because villain will make incorrect folds) and more 3 bets for VALUE in our range for the second example. (Because villain will make incorrect calls)

    Just remember that against opponents who are paying attention, your perceived range will affect their ranges accordingly. Even most fish will change their ranges. (We have all seen the spaz shove with A9o from fish after you got delt KK twice and 3 bet them)

    Thinking more about these types of things will help us get out of these "default" lines that everyone uses and in turn this should result into more profitable decisions. Also, Kmind if you are already thinking of these things then I am sorry in advance! But I'm sure some people reading can benefit from this.
    Last edited by cleanup.that; 01-02-2011 at 04:46 PM.
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  30. #30
    kmind's Avatar
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    Great post, cleanup.that! I agree with everything you said. You explained my thinking a lot more thoroughly!
  31. #31
    Not very sure why people are hating all over preflop, or the flop for that matter.

    Preflop is like totally fine. We have an 18/12 who's likely opening fairly tight from MP. I assume we haven't been 3 betting him much, so I'd assume it's likely his continuing range vs our 3 bet will be pretty tight if he's aware that he's an 18/12 and aware that we don't have wide 3 bet range.

    So if his continuing range is something like TT+ AK, we're really not doing all that well vs it. We're also blowing out two horrible fish who will very frequently come along and flop underpairs to our QQ and donate monies to us postflop. If we had a good reason to 3-bet like "the fish are so loose that they'll cold call it hella wide" or "We have awesome equity vs villains continuing range" then this could be excusable. As it is though, I see no real reason to 3 bet here, and a few good reasons not to.

    Now on to the flop. Again this thing about blowing the fish out still applies. We can raise, but shit, how fucking strong does a raise look to MP. MP is an 18/13 who's just opened and c bet a 4 way flop on a drawy low ass board into 2 stations where he can expect 3 folds close to never. Think it's fair to say his range is probably pretty strong. We can continue against his range profitably but by raising the flop we're not only blowing the fish off shitty pairs that they'll call the flop (and our turn bet) with but we're giving villain a very good reason to fold stuff like 77 88 99 TT etc and again probably skewing his already strong range to the point where we're doing meh against it if he continues to a flop raise. The pot will be plenty big enough to stack these fish, we have position, again, there's no real great reason to raise the flop. We're not thrilled at all about getting it in on the flop vs MP.

    Edit: I don't think raise/folding vs the nit is going to be bad if the fish are stationy and still not likely to fold overpairs, but I don't think it's that clear cut. We are going to look hella strong even to some fish by raising here. Raising the flop is only best if we can profitably get it in vs either of these fish, I'm sure not raise/folding vs them. A lot of deck does mess up our action so taking a raise fold line on the flop vs the reg is porobably okay.

    So yeah we can leave all our opponents ranges the widest and weakest and maximise the frequency with which we stack fish and generally make money from the fish by flatting preflop and to anextent by flatting the flop (although often the turn will suck/kill our action or make us the worst hand and negate a lot of this value) while avoiding putting ourselves in a spot where we're making the nit fold out most of his weaker hands and fucking up our equity vs his range should he elect to continue.

    On the turn, shit his range is probably still really strong here. Flushes, maybe the odd AK or some shit he decided to c bet for whatever reason, sets, maybes some TT JJ KK that doesn't know how to play the turn. But in general we're not going to have much FE here and the only better hand we get to fold by jamming is KK which may not even be in his range. So raising seems really dumb to me. Calling is marginal as hell, well just bad actually. Our equity sucks we have way more reverse implied odds than implied odds on diamond rivers and have the best hand pretty rarely on blanks.

    Turn looks like a pretty easy fold. Rest of the hand looks fine.

    I've skimmed over some of the above responses and ffs

    3bet JJ there lots of chances you will make them fold PP,
    Shit like this is just so facepalm. 3 BET COS YOULL MAKE HIM FOLD WORSE HANDS. Uhh no.

    I've noticed in the BC loads of you guys seem to really enjoy making up your mind about a decision based on nothing and then arguing relentlessly for it in any way you can find to "win" the debate or whatever. Instead, try using the information objectively and imparitally to come to the best decision then you wont need to invent non reasons for doing things.
    Last edited by Carroters; 01-02-2011 at 07:29 PM.
  32. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Razvan729 View Post
    one and very important reason, you 3bet JJ+ because even holding JJ is the 4th hand as strenght preflop so playing it is +EV and you dominate the rest of the hands. playing JJ will make you money , look for graphs and you will see it a winning pre hand. these been said you want as much money in preflop, because you have a winning hand. suppose you flat JJ, QQ pre to a raise and you dont 3bet, and he is on AQso+, he hits nothing on the flop , maybe you get one street value for your hand but that all so 3bet pre and him calling will bring you more money. lets think you flat and no 3bet pre JJ,QQ, he opens A9s+ and AJo+, flop comes and he hits A, woulndt you want then to 3bet pre so that those money would have been yours? lets say you flat and no 3 bet JJ, QQ, flop comes 10 high, you get called or you call a bet, turn blank, again call or get called, river blank ... he shows bigger PP than yours or a set 23456789.... woudnt you want then to 3bet pre so that you know what you are facing and stop losing these money? so you see, 3bet pre is a way to make money if you know how to use it and what info to extract from it. this is why we 3bet, 4bet and shove 5bet, to make money, by adding more to the pot when we are winning and stop leaking ours in the pot when we are losing. this is why you play poker , to make money, you make money by playing the best hands with the best ways and the best info you can get!
    None of this is a reason for 3 betting JJ in any situation. It's completely arbitrary and misleading for anyone who reads it.

    I don't mind people giving their oppinions because they can be corrected and better plasyers can help them etc. However, it's more dangerous to the comunity to give your oppinion in a lecturing way. Saying things like "So you see..." implys you have wisdom in poker and that weak/new players should accept everything you say. This is evidently not the case.

    3 betting is a way to make money, but it's not quite as simple as "we have the 4th best starting hand." This is arbitrary and misleading. We 3 bet for value only when our opponent continues with a weaker range. This continuing range, as kmind said, will frequently differ hugely from an opening range and certainly from the all the other hands in poker that are worse than JJ.

    People appreciate input here. But seriously, the first step really is realising you suck ass at poker. You are going to have a hellishly long and failing road ahead if you already think your poker analysis is anywhere near competent. The sooner you realise this, take a step back and start to question everything you think you know, the sooner you'll be on the road to becoming half decent at poker.
  33. #33
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    you demolished me sorry never ment to sound wisdom or a pro, i am not, that was just my opinion and i tryed to express it as well as i could sorry if my posts seemed like an advice, they are not, just the way a begginer thinks
  34. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
    None of this is a reason for 3 betting JJ in any situation. It's completely arbitrary and misleading for anyone who reads it.

    I don't mind people giving their oppinions because they can be corrected and better plasyers can help them etc. However, it's more dangerous to the comunity to give your oppinion in a lecturing way. Saying things like "So you see..." implys you have wisdom in poker and that weak/new players should accept everything you say. This is evidently not the case.
    +1

    People need to be careful. Warning guys, Newbs trying to learn here!

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