set vs monotone flop (25NL)

Villain is 17/13/3.3 over 151 hands, no other notes on him

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed)

SB ($24.75)
BB ($34.14)
UTG ($25)
MP ($25.35)
Hero (Button) ($25.68)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9
UTG bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.85) Q, 10, 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG raises $4, Hero ???

My question is whether to raise/get it in now or to just call and bet/shove non heart turns?
If he is ahead of me already (flushes, TT, QQ less likely) then the money is probably going in either way. The problem I see is that if he's semibluffing and I raise now then I give him a chance to get off the hook and fold. However, if I call now and the turn is a blank and he checks, then if I bet somewhat large he may be folding anyways. That's why I'm leaning towards just raising and getting it in now.

I'd appreciate it if you give sizing in your responses (flop raise sizing or turn bet sizing if you like a call)

r a g e
s h o v e
j f c

OK, I don't know if this is right, but here are my thoughts -- correct me if this is spewy.

If your plan is to get all of the money into the middle regardless of the turn card, then you should shove now. If he's chasing the flush with a single heart in his hand, you deny him the proper odds and give him the opportunity to make a big mistake.

What range do you think he takes this line? Let's say TT+, AK/AJ/AQ/KQ with at least one heart, maybe KhJh. Pokerstove says you have 51% equity. Get it in now.

Board: Qh Th 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.471% 49.87% 01.60% 19255 618.00 { 9d9s }
Hand 1: 48.529% 46.93% 01.60% 18119 618.00 { TT+, AhKh, AhJh, KJs, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh, AcQh, AdQh, AsQh, KcQh, KdQh, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KsQh }

Call because you have position and if you shove then he might fold AQ (no heart) sorts of hands. Then read his soul on the turn.

Doesn't this look like a check-raise from villain? If he does have a flush then your equity drops to about 30%. Is that why it is better to call rather than shove?

Agree with the call and play turns/rivers.

If you call the flop -- what is your plan for the turn? Bet any non-heart? How much? And what do you do if a heart falls?

Definite call and re-evaluate turn/river. I'm probably never folding if turn and river blank.

It is generally much more profitable vs many villains who show strength to get to the turn with sets on monotone boards (especially ones connected like this one) due to our equity greatly increasing vs their continuing range on cards that seemingly don't help our hand, (ie blanks)

Whereas raising/shoving the flop and having him call commits us with meh-ish equity vs his continuing range. Being in position is also a large advantage in this spot b/c we can react to so many turn cards profitably.

Originally Posted by NightGizmo

OK, I don't know if this is right, but here are my thoughts -- correct me if this is spewy.

If your plan is to get all of the money into the middle regardless of the turn card, then you should shove now. If he's chasing the flush with a single heart in his hand, you deny him the proper odds and give him the opportunity to make a big mistake.

What range do you think he takes this line? Let's say TT+, AK/AJ/AQ/KQ with at least one heart, maybe KhJh. Pokerstove says you have 51% equity. Get it in now.

Board: Qh Th 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.471% 49.87% 01.60% 19255 618.00 { 9d9s }
Hand 1: 48.529% 46.93% 01.60% 18119 618.00 { TT+, AhKh, AhJh, KJs, AcKh, AdKh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AsKh, AcQh, AdQh, AsQh, KcQh, KdQh, KhQc, KhQd, KhQs, KsQh }

I would put his range at

Ace high FD's
Any made flush
Any set
TT+ with a heart

Giving me 51% equity

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

21,780 games 0.005 secs 4,356,000 games/sec

Board: 9h Th Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.026% 50.21% 00.82% 10935 178.50 { 9c9s }
Hand 1: 48.974% 48.15% 00.82% 10488 178.50 { AcAh, AdAh, AhAs, KcKh, KdKh, QcQh, QdQh, JcJh, JdJh, JhJs, TT, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, KhQh, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs, AhQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhJc, AhJd, AhJs }


My plan is not to get all the money in regardless of turn card. If I call the flop raise and the turn is a heart and he gets aggro I probably fold.

Originally Posted by Fnord

Call because you have position and if you shove then he might fold AQ (no heart) sorts of hands. Then read his soul on the turn.

Originally Posted by XxStacksxX

Agree with the call and play turns/rivers.

Ok, so what do we do on a heart turn when he bets into us? Is this somewhat dependent on sizing/timing?

And how much do we bet on a blank turn? (assuming he checks to us)

Originally Posted by kfaess

Ok, so what do we do on a heart turn when he bets into us? Is this somewhat dependent on sizing/timing?

And how much do we bet on a blank turn? (assuming he checks to us)

You're in position. He's in far worse shape trying to put you on a hand.

As for the second question, a lot of monies.

Originally Posted by kfaess

Ace high FD's
Any made flush
Any set
TT+ with a heart

Big pairs with no heart play like this. Ah Kx might also do something like this. You're giving anyone but the nittiest of passive nits too much credit.

OK, I'm convinced, call flop/reevaluate on turn is a better line.

OK, so what is our response to each of the following?

a) Turn is a heart, villain checks
b) Turn is a heart, villain bets
c) Turn is a blank, villain bets
d) Turn is a blank, villain checks

d is an obvious bet, I think c is a raise, but what about a and b?

Originally Posted by NightGizmo

a) Turn is a heart, villain checks

Check

Originally Posted by NightGizmo

b) Turn is a heart, villain bets

Magic 8-ball.

Originally Posted by NightGizmo

c) Turn is a blank, villain bets
d) Turn is a blank, villain checks

Put lots of money into the pot.

Originally Posted by Tasha

Doesn't this look like a check-raise from villain? If he does have a flush then your equity drops to about 30%. Is that why it is better to call rather than shove?

Unless he has the ace high flush, c/r is risky because we could check behind giving a potential better FD (in our range) to get there cheaply. We can call because we're going to be IP throughout the hand, so it shouldn't be too hard to play poker on the turn/river

At 25NL I like to always just get this in on the flop.. you will be surprised at how often Qx or a heart draw will call your shove. Remember, a heart/straight card on the turn could also kill the action and then you just lost value against a lot of his range.

My policy is, if anyone raises my bet on any street and I have a set, get it in on any drawy board.