QQ 3 bet pot scary board

[Donkafelts]

Villian is 17/11 over 18 hands and hasn't been in a 3 bet pot so far. I know my preflop bet sizing kinda sucks and I'm not sure about the flop bet sizing.

Preflop to call the 3 bet IP i put him on something like 77-QQ AQ and maby AJ. Flop bet is looking to get value hands like 99-TT or AJ main thing i wonder on the flop is how often villian has a set after just calling on this wet board. Turn card is terrible as 99-TT just got there c/f standard?



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($10)
UTG ($10.65)
MP ($14.10)
CO ($13.95)
Button ($10.20)
Hero (SB) ($10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, 1 fold, Button bets $0.40, Hero raises to $1.40, 2 folds, Button calls $1

Flop: ($3) 7, 8, J (2 players)
Hero bets $1.70, Button calls $1.70

Turn: ($6.40) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.50, Hero folds

Total pot: $6.40 | Rake: $0.30

[surviva316]

PF bet sizing is exactly what i'd make it (1.30-1.40, slightly leaning toward 1.40 'cause of the open limper).

flop sizing is too small because the board is so F'ing wet. your sizing is standard for like AA on a K72r flop because 1) you're going to be betting that with your whole range, so you want to make it cheaper for your bluffs and 2) you're not in any rush to get stacks in with your value range. on this flop, you want stacks in by the turn. 2.20 would set up for a 6.60 shove into a 7.40 pot, which you wanna set up because the board is never going to be in your favor by the river.

i think the turn check is good 'cause we're not getting value from much (like AJ and draws that don't know how to play draws). his bet being so small, though, really makes me want to call and reval river if we don't hit a T or Q because it looks like a bet from a hand that was scared by the turn moreso than a bet from a hand that just hit the nuts. but there isn't much of his range that we still beat, so i think a fold is completely fine (and i doubt that the metagame involved in folding to a post oak bet on the turn doesn't matter much at 10nl).

this def isn't one of those "you can't call the turn only to fold to the river" type spots, though

[spoonitnow]

www.pokerstove.com

[Donkafelts]

Thanks for the response. So on bet sizing if we had made it 2.2 on flop and had gotten called, plan is to shove any non 9, T, K, or A turn? My problem with that is say turn bricks a 4 and we shove i think we are very rarely getting looked up by worse, like maby AJ, if he's bad enough to flat that pre (not sure of the likelyhood of that as he's a nit). At the same time i see how checking turn is giving alot of the hands that call flop a free card, but is turn getting value from very few hands, and def never folding better. C/c turn just seems really bad though too. As you can see i'm just clueless in this spot, and any room for discussion about turn play when it bricks would be apreciated.

[Donkafelts]

Discounted 2/3 sets on flop cause they raise.
Hand 0: 85.455% 80.45% 05.00% 354 22.00 { QdQs, JcJh, TcTh, TcTs, ThTs, 9c9d, 9c9s, 9d9s, 8h8s, 7h7s }
Hand 1: 14.545% 09.55% 05.00% 42 22.00 { QcQh }

For break even (.85455)($2.50) = (.14545)(Final pot - $2.50)
Final pot = $17.19
Obv. fold against that range, we actually need to win more because sometimes we put more in when we hit a queen against a straight or w/e. I knew this was a fold if he only has range suggest in op. I need comments on accuracy of this range and our plan on different turns, not links plz. (no offense intended)

www.pokerstove.com

[spoonitnow]

Discounted 2/3 sets on flop cause they raise.
Hand 0: 85.455% 80.45% 05.00% 354 22.00 { QdQs, JcJh, TcTh, TcTs, ThTs, 9c9d, 9c9s, 9d9s, 8h8s, 7h7s }
Hand 1: 14.545% 09.55% 05.00% 42 22.00 { QcQh }

For break even (.85455)($2.50) = (.14545)(Final pot - $2.50)
Final pot = $17.19
Obv. fold against that range, we actually need to win more because sometimes we put more in when we hit a queen against a straight or w/e. I knew this was a fold if he only has range suggest in op. I need comments on accuracy of this range and our plan on different turns, not links plz. (no offense intended)

www.pokerstove.com

It's hard to say how accurate a range will be for something so specific from someone we don't have a lot of information about, so one thing you can do now is to make his range in your analysis wider and wider until you reach a break even point, then decide if his real range would be wider than that or not.

This is useful in developing a feel for equities, etc., without having to be super accurate. At the tables, everything is going to be at least a little fuzzy as far as what we think someone's range is in a given spot or what we estimate our equity to be in some spot. For these reasons, it's not all that necessary to try to be super accurate, just kind of close. Most decisions will be so clear that we don't need to be super accurate anyway, and on the other hand the decisions that are so close they're difficult don't matter much because they are so close to begin with.

Good work btw. We do this sort of thing all the time in the #ftr IRC channel. You should check it out.

[surviva316]

My problem with that is say turn bricks a 4 and we shove i think we are very rarely getting looked up by worse, like maby AJ, if he's bad enough to flat that pre (not sure of the likelyhood of that as he's a nit).

i'd really really slow down with the nit label; i'd call the guy an unknown (in fact after participating in this pot, his vpip is technically now up to 21, and who knows what it'll do over the next 50 much less 200 hands). the only thing we can gather from his 17/11 over 18 hands is that he's very unlikely to be a complete station fish.

so, as an unknown, kinda taggy looking 10nl villain, i wouldn't be giving him so much credit for his flatting a 3b range IP. if you bet flop and shove on a blank 4 turn, i wouldn't at all be surprised to see JTs, KJ, TT and even QJ. i wouldn't put all of these as solidly 100% in his range, but i would consider each individual one AT LEAST as likely as hands like JJ, KK, AA because of hand combinations and the fact that he didn't 4b preflop and so forth.

and this is without mentioning all of his best draws, which put him in a much tougher spot if we set up for a turn shove. shoving the turn gives an unknown 10nl opponent (who we can always assume has like an 80% chance of sucking) the opportunity to make a mistake by calling, or even if they are able to make the "correct" fold, we've still protected our hand, as opposed to giving them a free card.

SUMMARY: just 'cause villain is running tight-ish looking stats over 18 hands, there's still a very very good chance that he's a tagg fish and an damn near certainty that he isn't anywhere very near perfect. so we want to maximize the probability of making a mistake. when we have a good hand on a dangerous board with low spr OOP, we generally do this by betting and putting him in a tough decision for stacks. i guarantee that not only will unknowns at 10nl very often make "not so good" plays when you put the heat on, they will even ocassionally make "retarded" plays.

[Donkafelts]

Good point about the small sample, what course of action do you take if turn is an ace or king?