planning hands

blame someone in irc for suggesting this, here's some sorta post on planning hands. I'll add some to the end of it later, but for now, here goes:
also, i note that i missed out any mention of bet-sizing, and that's fairly key in any plan. I'll write something on that to add to this already tldr rave


Ok, plan your hand...

Common advice, but what does it mean? At it's most basic level perfect planning and consideration of every permutation of possible actions from villain/board cards (which is about impossible) it means that you should rarely, if ever, encounter a situation where you are lost. Approaching this impossible state is going to obviously pay dividends.

Planning your hand - preflop.
This is fairly simple. You look down and see your hole-cards. If it's folded to you then it's raise or fold time. Fold and you can stop your planning. Raise and you should have a feel for villains behind and their calling, raising and squeezing tendencies - when you have a small sample size it's fine to err on the side of caution/pessimism here. 17-13 and 7% 3b over 30 hands of full ring is not sufficient read to be 4-b shoving JJ when your ep open is raised on up. What is often overlooked is that your pre-flop action should involve a sketch of what you plan to do post-flop according to board texture, position, and villains to the flop. And now for some examples cos i like examples, and they hopefully illustrate how hand planning helps to to explain a few 'standard' pre-flop actions.

hand example 1: FR 10nl - folded to you in MP and you hold 83o. Fold. Why? How does planning help here? Well, what's a good plan if you limp or raise? Your plan is to flop bottom pair or worse most of the time, your plan is then to either bluff with a hand that has only a miniscule chance of improving and then give up, or your plan could be to give up on the flop. So most of the time your plan is to lose money if you see a flop. Sounds like a good plan? so, you can't see any chance of a decent plan. In a more general sense, folding pre is probably decent advice if you can't think of a decent plan for your holding. Planning on flopping 888 doesn't really cut it.

hand example 2: FR 50nl, 44 under the gun. If you limp, you plan on playing a weak hand out of position and without initiative on about 90% of flops. And you plan on trying to extract huge value out of position the 10% of times you flop a set. Sound like a crap plan? Ok, how about raising? Do you plan on c-betting as bluff on most boards, with only 2 outs when called? Do you plan on somehow stacking a set-miner when you hit your bottom set? Sounds like plans that involve a lot of shitty spots and this is why most winning FR regs evolve to open folding 44 from ep most of the time.

hand example 3: FR 25nl, you iso two MP fish lijmpers with QJs from the button. What is your plan? if you haven't already read spoon's post on isolating limpers, do so now http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...rs-152850.html. Your plan has already considered whether the fish are stations who call down middle pair 3 streets, or flop fit-folders. This is because you aren't simply isolating blindly, right? So once the flop comes down you already know your play when checked to, and you know that you can play in a fairly straightforward fashion if donked into. This is a classic situation where players flop Jxx or 9xx and have no idea what to do cos they raised it up pre with not even a gem of a plan...

Planning your hand - preflop and 3bets.
so, you've 3bet. Here is a spot where people get lost. Before 3-betting you should think about why, and how you will react vs a 4bet. It should be clear that identifying whether you're 3-betting for value or bluff is key in your planning (i actually object some to this black-white classification when 3-betting, but it's fine for the purposes of this post). If you 3bet xx from the button vs a CO iso from a 14-12 with 85% fold to 3bet and you should be comfortable if faced with a 4bet. If not, you fucked up. Absence of a plan = more difficult spots than are necessary.

Planning your hand - calling preflop.
Something huge to consider when calling a raise pre-flop is whether you are calling in the hope of winning a big pot at showdown (villain overplays hands, typically has a fairly strong range) = you're planning on hitting a nut holding or folding, or winning a small/medium pot without showdown (villain is weaktight, high W$WSD, eager to fold) = you're planning to bluff-a-lot.

hand example 4: FR 50nl and an aware tag-wannabe 14-11-3 (vpip/pfr/3b) isos a 70-3 mp limper from the cutoff. You hold 55 on the button. Before auto-calling you should think. How often are blinds squeezing -> you gotta fold? What is CO's fold to 3b/how strong is his range in this spot vs his typical range (ez)? how often does CO have a hand strong enough to pay us off if we magic our set? How obliging is the 70-3 when it comes to getting chips in the middle with weak hands in big pots? WTF is your plan if you call?!? What is interesting in a spot like this is that when you try to consider/plan your play in response to most actions it becomes pretty clear that this is a pretty standard spot where 3-betting or folding are your two best options, rather the oh-so-obvious play of calling that most reg-fish will make about always.


A common concept - 'only need one plan on this street'
I'm not sure where i first came across this, but it's fairly widely written about, and fairly widely ignored!, that you only have to make one short-term plan after you bet or raise on any street. (Obviously you should consider why you are raising beforehand ) This plan is how to deal with a raise. Facing a fold and you don't really need too much of a plan, it's next hand. Facing a call and your plan continues on the next street and informed by another card.
Planning your hand - post-flop time.

Your hand is fairly well defined once the flop comes, your hand has a value, you should have a fair idea of where it fits into your range (top/middle/bottom). At this point it is worth pointing out that you can easily out-level yourself if you start spending way too much time bluffing vs fish just because your range is strong. Remember that the two keys to crushing micro no-limit are pre-flop hand selection and value betting. One of the first things to consider when forming your plan on the flop is whether you are happy to get stacks in. JJ on J72 rainbow and it's fairly clear, 99 on T63tt and it's less obvious. In he first example the only question to ask is how to best get max-value. 350bb and it should be clear there is going to have to be some betting. 35bb effective with a pot of 10bb and you have a lot of leeway. Bet-sizing needs to factor in implied odds - if you're barrelling a turn vs a likely turn and know you won't be folding river when the draw hits cos of lol-pot-odds means that you have to bet enough to deny implied odds. If you hadn't realised tht your turn bet sizing would lead to a spot where you feel pot-committed on a river scare card it is clear that you messed up your planning on the turn. And now this lack of a decent plan is going to cost you money.

Betting flop for value, turn? classic planning mistake time.
So, you decided to bet flop for value. Time to consider what that means. It means that you bet the flop expecting to be ahead more often than not when called. So, what are you doing on the turn? Surely not check-folding. What about another value-bet? Life is definitely a lot easier if you had already planned to try to get two streets of value and on which streets to try and get them. Either bet turn, c-decide/block river, or check turn bet river, or whatever really. Deciding in advance, or at least consider the alternatives, leads you to make a whole lot less dumb mistakes. It's super common at micros for TAG-nit-wannabes to bet flop 'for value' and then check turn and river cos they're scared of being behind. But, by definition, villain's range after the call is behind hero's. Whether villain will call a second street is moot, but note that perhaps the biggest leak among players 400nl and below is calling too much.

Now for a few hand examples, cos i think that thinking about them will help to understand how to plan hands.

hand example 5: bet-folding. Remember the fold part of this . You have AA super-deep on AQ8hh, turn 7c and both streets a fairly straightforward player calls your value bets and you expect his range is full of flush draws, sets and two pair hands. River comes the flush 2h and your read is that you're never good if raised but that villain will call all his non flush range. Classic bet-fold spot (we're gonna assume your read is watertight here). So, you bet, villain raises 3x, you had a plan so stick to it! Planning to bet-fold and then forgetting the fold part is a fairly common leak, and is definitely a leak.

hand example 6 (cf hand example 4):
utg is 39-3, CO is 13-11-2 with low fold to 3b.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($17)
BB ($59.10)
UTG ($25.45)
UTG+1 ($40.95)
MP1 ($99)
MP2 ($74.60)
CO ($50)
Hero (Button) ($51.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4
UTG calls $0.50, 3 folds, CO bets $2, hero folds.

hand example 7:
villain is fairly fishy 25-12 with 80% cbet and low W$WSD over mid-sized sample.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($50)
CO ($62.10)
Hero (Button) ($53.95)
SB ($17.75)
BB ($50.75)
UTG ($46.25)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($38.95)
MP2 ($49.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 8
3 folds, MP2 bets $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, Hero calls $1, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.50
ok, blinds and button aren't the squeezing type here and pfr is a heavy station. We can squeeze for value here, but we're gonna end up in a lot of weird spots and get limited value post if we get called and don't magic a set. Set-mining is fine - we plan to win a big pot, or bluff at a small pot if flop checks around and it feels good to do so.

Flop: ($5) 8, Q, 7 (5 players)
ok, we have a fairly wet flop and we want to stack off. How best to do so, we can't call as we give crazy odds to the draws on this kind of flop, and there's a reasonable chance that draws are going to call even if we raise. We raise planning to get it in on most turns if we go HU to the turn - and we're going to 4b if someone 3bets us on this flop. So we raise the min c-bet, and we have a plan.

SB checks, BB checks, MP2 bets $0.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4.50, 2 folds, MP2 calls $4

Turn: ($14) J (2 players)
well, turn is pretty blank cos 9T/JJ is a tiny/unlikely part of villain's range. We're ahead of most of his range, and his c-spew range could easily include flush draws + tp, QJ/AQ/KK+ so we're going to call a c-raise.
MP2 checks, Hero bets $13, MP2 raises to $43.75 (All-In), Hero calls $30.75
hand example 8:
pfr is perhaps the biggest winner at these stakes, 15-12-3 and 68% fold to 3b, 18% 4b. CO is maniac fish 67-24 who is pretty keen to get it in with middle pair or better. SB is 15-12-4 with a 4% squeeze, bb is ubernit.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($124.15)
SB ($110.65)
BB ($50)
UTG ($21.95)
MP1 ($115.90)
MP2 ($59.15)
CO ($61.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
2 folds, MP2 bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB raises to $6.50, 1 fold, MP2 calls $5, CO calls $5, Hero calls $5

ok, calling and 3-betting are both options. PFR is capable of 4-b bluffing and sb is capable of squeezing, so 3b-folding is a possibility and the 3-bet may get us HU vs the fish. Downside is that we don't really want to be getting it in vs a 4b here as pfr isn't going to be 4betting as bluff too often with the maniac fish in the mix. And we get squeezed. PFR's flat is pretty much 22+/AK/various suited connectors, 4-betting for value isn't going to work, and we're getting almost direct odds to set mine plus we're deep and have position. Plan is to flop a set and get max value, flop an overpair and tread carefully, flop K/A high and pretty much run away.

Flop: ($26.50) 8, Q, 6 (4 players)
SB checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $26.50,
bingo. Our plan was to flop a set and get max value. So, now we're looking for max value. Being scared of two outers is weak sauce. We are donked into by the fish and we hold the nuts. Calling reps all sorts of hands, but mostly hands that beat JJ. Calling also reps some weakness like scared AQ and may get either of the other two players to continue, and we plan to get it in on any turn. Calling is obviously the only play here as it is the best way to get max-value.

wrap up to come! any comments welcome.

Nice post.

Planning hands is the most important part of playing any poker game. Multiple scenarios should be in your head every time we play a hand but the key thing to understand, is that every scenario revolves less around our holding and more around how our opponents play.

When our cards pop up, no matter what they are.. we always have to take inventory of everyone at the table and then run multiple possible outcomes through our head.. preflop and postflop.

Let the leak plugging begin!

i was going to edit/re-write incorporating any feedback received. Seems it too long. Maybe it would be better if it was one paragraph long. Thoughts?

Originally Posted by daven

i was going to edit/re-write incorporating any feedback received. Seems it too long. Maybe it would be better if it was one paragraph long. Thoughts?

I've read it once but it's alot to sink in to my feeble mind and I wanted to read it a couple more times before offering my feedback.Promise to go over it a couple times tonite and have something intelligent to say(hopefully)tomorrow.

Originally Posted by daven

i was going to edit/re-write incorporating any feedback received. Seems it too long. Maybe it would be better if it was one paragraph long. Thoughts?

no way its an epic thread, insta digest imo ...idk how i didnt see this before today

in the hand with the 44, why would our plan be diff than with the 88? i understand folding 44 in utg and other early/middle positions but you have position and can easily set mine, and the fish in the hand makes it even more profitable amirite? is it because his isoing range is so wide that when we do "magic a set" he wont be likely to stack off? cause then, like our plan in the 88 hand, we can still bluff at a small pot w/ position

nh daven, don't know how I missed this

Hrm, heres a semi good question...though im kind of tired so maybe its dumb lol.

Say we had a moment of stupidity somewhere along the hand that completely killed our plan. Like, we accidentally min4bet a guy with 82s when we intended to fold. We see a flop but we no longer have any kind of plan.

Panic and c/fold to stop the bleeding

Make rash decision with only like 30 seconds of time bank to think about everything that we ignored cuz we didnt mean to take this action

Make rasher decision so that we dont take abnormally long nor accidentally cause any inducing from villain because of the tank

Obv, we'd love to still take the +EV approach, but we've just accidentally thrown ourselves into uncharted waters that we've never had time to practice or think about because we just took a line that isnt in our playbook. Whats the plan, for finding a plan?

If you're talking about a plan for a misclick, I'd say it's irrelevant. If you need a plan, just fold. If you find yourself in a hand w/o a plan and it's getting expensive to continue, just fold. If it's not costing anything, then you have time to get a plan.

It sounds like you could be describing a situation where you're playing too many tables and find yourself in a hand w/o a plan. If that's the case, close some tables.

I dunno. Was I close?

Originally Posted by JKDS

Say we had a moment of stupidity somewhere along the hand that completely killed our plan. Like, we accidentally min4bet a guy with 82s when we intended to fold. We see a flop but we no longer have any kind of plan.

Did this the other day. My vision gets a tad blurry after long days on the computer.

I raised up 35o from MP thinking it was 55. BB calls. My image was pretty laggy as I won 4 out the last 5 pots IIRC. But the BB was kind of retarded and gave up a lot on the turn and had a very low WTSD and fold to cbet % over ~600ish hands.

So the flop comes J59ss, thinking I just flopped a set. BB checks and I go to bet, then just realizing the other card in my hand was a 3c - not the 5c. Idiot! So anyway, I said screw it and planned to bet the flop and then barrel any non spade on the turn - maybe a T - since KQ is in his range and I doubt he thinks it's in mine. I think the flopping bottom pair here is irrelevant b/c I don't have a whole lot of showdown value - and I really don't want to showdown 53o lol. Sure enough, villain called flop and check/folded the turn.

Doing this vs an unknown would be spew but I've seen this dude peel a lot of flops and then give up. So yes, preflop was kind of lol, but I came up with a plan on the flop and stuck with it. I guess that's kinda the morale here - have a plan and stick with it. Like Daven said above... planning to bet/fold the river then forgetting the fold part is a huge leak and is killing our bottom line.

Nice post.

i'm about halfway through this post and good stuff so far.

i don't get the conclusion in hand example 4, though. i agree if the 70/3 is short-stacked or if it's like a live game and we feel close to certain based on tells that he's going to fold or something like that because CO's range is too weak to set mine against and weak enough to profitably bluff.

but if effective stacks are 50bb's+ and there's a good chance the 70/3 is going to call, i don't get squeezing him out of the pot. also there's a range of stack sizes that the 70/3 can have that makes this spot so awkward that folding is probably best.

Originally Posted by PlayToWin

It sounds like you could be describing a situation where you're playing too many tables and find yourself in a hand w/o a plan.

Well thats certainly one situation and the example i used (mainly because someone brought it up in irc), but there are certainly other spots that arent the fault of too many tables.

For instance, there was a thread before were we had a solid player giving a 10/7 a turn range that didnt make any sense. If you find yourself in that spot and then realize on the river that you horribly miscalculated or maybe just miscalculated a small amount, then your plan has to change on the fly and you're left with little time to readjust to all the information you've been given.

IDK, it seems reasonable to me that you could make a mistake somewhere in a hand, realize it, and then find yourself in a spot where your scratching your head with no plan whatsoever and completely unsure of what to do. Obv it wouldnt happen that often, maybe once a session or once a day, but when and if it does we find our self in the difficult decision of whether we bandage up the wound to try and stop the bleeding or try and fling the seeping blood to blind our opponent.

I guess there really isnt an answer though, well...the kind of answer im looking for anyway. Seems its just a "do whats most +ev given your situation" even if that turns out to just make a -EV play slightly less negative.

I said yesterday that I'd try to come up with something intelligent to say about this subject so I'll give it a shot.

I think the main prerequisites to hand planning that many beginners(me) are missing are assigning Hero a range and assigning Villain(s) a range.It's damn near impossible to formulate a plan when we don't know how our range measures up to villains'.It gets easier when our range is wider(tho vague) than villains because we can play fit or fold on flops we miss.As villains range widens,ranges begin to blur and planning becomes more difficult.When villains range gets really wide vs our tighter range,we know our preflop range crushes villain but if we don't hit the flop we're kinda lost.Exactly where we don't wanna be.

So the question here becomes;How does a beginner,with limited knowledge of assigning ranges(villains and heros) learn to plan hands?

I think the most obvious answer is just to do it,or at least try,every time we involve ourselves in a hand.No excuses.Every hand.Eventually we'll get better.

Does anyone more experienced have some helpful hints?

[edit] I thought I'd include a hand that I think is a good example.

Villain is 58/23/62afq over a tiny 30 hands.Not giving villain credit for the tiny sample I give him a range of 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($1.18)
CO ($1.97)
Button ($4.22)
SB ($1.99)
BB ($3.70)
UTG ($0.45)
UTG+1 ($2)
Hero (MP1) ($2.21)
MP2 ($4.50)

Plan...
Raise from MP because(as we've recently learned)AQo crushes most ranges and with any luck we'll be HU going to the flop.Villains min 3bet makes it tricky(3bet 0/7 tho I didn't know that then[note-need to work HUD])but narrows it down a bit so...99+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J9s+, T6s+, 96s+, A2o+, KTo+, Q7o+, J8o+, T9o+, 98o.Still crushing at about 65%.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with ,
2 folds, Hero bets $0.08, 4 folds, SB raises to $0.16, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.08

MPTK,lose a little equity but still ahead w/60% so start betting.

Flop: ($0.34) , , (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn picks up a flushdraw but completes any of villains flushdraws tho it actually increases our equity to 64%.However this is where we get lost.How many combos can we eliminate now w/ a flush draw on the board.If we don't know our plan goes to shit.With the info we've got we stick to plan and keep betting.Villain raises,we're committed and all in.

Turn: ($0.94) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.90, SB raises to $1.53 (All-In), Hero calls $0.63


River: ($4) (2 players, 1 all-in)

Villain shows the ace high flush.

So what happened?
Did the plan fail?
Did Hero fail in his planning?
Was Heros range off?

The point is that tho planning is essential to our play we need a good grasp of range analysis to learn how to formulate a good plan.

Hopefully I'm not making to much of this.

Originally Posted by daven

i was going to edit/re-write incorporating any feedback received. Seems it too long. Maybe it would be better if it was one paragraph long. Thoughts?

It's great the way it is, thanks for taking the time to write it.

Snap digest imo.

Originally Posted by supahaole

I said yesterday that I'd try to come up with something intelligent to say about this subject so I'll give it a shot.

I think the main prerequisites to hand planning that many beginners(me) are missing are assigning Hero a range and assigning Villain(s) a range.It's damn near impossible to formulate a plan when we don't know how our range measures up to villains'.It gets easier when our range is wider(tho vague) than villains because we can play fit or fold on flops we miss.As villains range widens,ranges begin to blur and planning becomes more difficult.When villains range gets really wide vs our tighter range,we know our preflop range crushes villain but if we don't hit the flop we're kinda lost.Exactly where we don't wanna be.

So the question here becomes;How does a beginner,with limited knowledge of assigning ranges(villains and heros) learn to plan hands?

I think the most obvious answer is just to do it,or at least try,every time we involve ourselves in a hand.No excuses.Every hand.Eventually we'll get better.

Does anyone more experienced have some helpful hints?

[edit] I thought I'd include a hand that I think is a good example.

Villain is 58/23/62afq over a tiny 30 hands.Not giving villain credit for the tiny sample I give him a range of 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($1.18)
CO ($1.97)
Button ($4.22)
SB ($1.99)
BB ($3.70)
UTG ($0.45)
UTG+1 ($2)
Hero (MP1) ($2.21)
MP2 ($4.50)

Plan...
Raise from MP because(as we've recently learned)AQo crushes most ranges and with any luck we'll be HU going to the flop.Villains min 3bet makes it tricky(3bet 0/7 tho I didn't know that then[note-need to work HUD])but narrows it down a bit so...99+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J9s+, T6s+, 96s+, A2o+, KTo+, Q7o+, J8o+, T9o+, 98o.Still crushing at about 65%.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with ,
2 folds, Hero bets $0.08, 4 folds, SB raises to $0.16, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.08

MPTK,lose a little equity but still ahead w/60% so start betting.

Flop: ($0.34) , , (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn picks up a flushdraw but completes any of villains flushdraws tho it actually increases our equity to 64%.However this is where we get lost.How many combos can we eliminate now w/ a flush draw on the board.If we don't know our plan goes to shit.With the info we've got we stick to plan and keep betting.Villain raises,we're committed and all in.

Turn: ($0.94) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.90, SB raises to $1.53 (All-In), Hero calls $0.63


River: ($4) (2 players, 1 all-in)

Villain shows the ace high flush.

So what happened?
Did the plan fail?
Did Hero fail in his planning?
Was Heros range off?

The point is that tho planning is essential to our play we need a good grasp of range analysis to learn how to formulate a good plan.

Hopefully I'm not making to much of this.

That seems a little silly of a range to put him on when he min 3 bets for the first time w/only 30 hands on him. I'd give him more credit than that range until i get a read on him.

you're giving him credit for 3b Q2s and J8o ............. WTF

In an effort to derail a hijacking of Davens post I'm gonna post this hand in a different thread where it can recieve the levels and beratings it deserves.Please post replies to the actual hand there.

kfaess and newfish-you guys are absolutely right but your missing the point.I was trying to relay how hard it is to plan hands as a beginner because we may be way off on our ranges and without proper range analysis our planning can get us in alot of trouble.This is the beginners circle,right?

Daven-if the post was to far off subject let me know and I'll edit it out.Btw,don't change the op.It is long and I'll have to read it multiple times for it to really sink in but it's all very relevant and and it's a great read.Concur that it should be in the digest.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

in the hand with the 44, why would our plan be diff than with the 88? i understand folding 44 in utg and other early/middle positions but you have position and can easily set mine, and the fish in the hand makes it even more profitable amirite? is it because his isoing range is so wide that when we do "magic a set" he wont be likely to stack off? cause then, like our plan in the 88 hand, we can still bluff at a small pot w/ position

Nice observation. I see a few differences between the 44 and 88 hands, and you pretty much got it - it's cos the wide iso-range makes it unprofitably for set mining. Re bluffing at the small pot, i far prefer bluffing vs a reasonably clear range - and his iso-range is super-wide.. In the 88 hand we're only going to have to extract the size of the pot on the flop out of someone if we hit cos of the min-open, and 88 unimproved has a bunch more showdown value than 44. Replace 88 with 44 in the 88 hand and it's still a call. Replace 44 with 88 in the 44 hand and it's an interesting spot.

Originally Posted by JKDS

Say we had a moment of stupidity somewhere along the hand that completely killed our plan. Like, we accidentally min4bet a guy with 82s when we intended to fold. We see a flop but we no longer have any kind of plan.

Panic and c/fold to stop the bleeding

Make rash decision with only like 30 seconds of time bank to think about everything that we ignored cuz we didnt mean to take this action

Make rasher decision so that we dont take abnormally long nor accidentally cause any inducing from villain because of the tank

Obv, we'd love to still take the +EV approach, but we've just accidentally thrown ourselves into uncharted waters that we've never had time to practice or think about because we just took a line that isnt in our playbook. Whats the plan, for finding a plan?

things that completely kill our plans are interesting. Villains can also do stuff that messes our plans up - cos we rarely have 'perfect' planning, so it's not always us stuffing up by min-4-betting 82s. In that sort of spot you just try and think of a +EV line = make a new plan. +EV means that you expect to make more money from that point with your new plan than you would with any other plan = it ignores the fact that you already have money invested in the pot. Like, if you think that he will fold to a c-bet 75% of the time pretty much regardless of sizing then you can c-bet right? Misclicks happen and you're pretty much always in damage control/uncharted territory - but you learn some at the same time.
Playtowin was about right too stargrinder's example is great.

Originally Posted by surviva316

i don't get the conclusion in hand example 4, though. ...
also there's a range of stack sizes that the 70/3 can have that makes this spot so awkward that folding is probably best.

agree that folding is always fine here, but the point is mostly that calling (which is often a default play in this spot for micro players) is probably the worst of 3 options.

Originally Posted by supahaole

So the question here becomes;How does a beginner,with limited knowledge of assigning ranges(villains and heros) learn to plan hands?

I think the most obvious answer is just to do it,or at least try,every time we involve ourselves in a hand.No excuses.Every hand.Eventually we'll get better.

sounds good to me. The other thing is to look at hands during session review. Ask yourself what your plan was at the time. Ask yourself now what you think of that plan.

Originally Posted by supahaole

Villain is 58/23/62afq over a tiny 30 hands.Not giving villain credit for the tiny sample I give him a range of 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J4s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 98o.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($1.18)
CO ($1.97)
Button ($4.22)
SB ($1.99)
BB ($3.70)
UTG ($0.45)
UTG+1 ($2)
Hero (MP1) ($2.21)
MP2 ($4.50)

Plan...
Raise from MP because(as we've recently learned)AQo crushes most ranges and with any luck we'll be HU going to the flop.Villains min 3bet makes it tricky(3bet 0/7 tho I didn't know that then[note-need to work HUD])but narrows it down a bit so...99+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J9s+, T6s+, 96s+, A2o+, KTo+, Q7o+, J8o+, T9o+, 98o.Still crushing at about 65%.

sounds fine, i doubt i ever fold vs the min 3-bet, but i tread carefully post-flop cos i think you're being pretty optimistic about his 3-betting range. I'm not sure i like the c-bet, what's your plan vs a c-raise? it's kinda thin value, but ok i guess.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with ,
2 folds, Hero bets $0.08, 4 folds, SB raises to $0.16, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.08

MPTK,lose a little equity but still ahead w/60% so start betting.
ok, here is a problem in your planning - villain is going to fold some of his range vs your flop bet (exclusively things you beat), and you need to adjust for this on the turn. Turn is a pretty easy check behind for pot control - i prefer to get excited about picking up nut flush draws and two card flush draws - ideally the combo

Flop: ($0.34) , , (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30

Turn picks up a flushdraw but completes any of villains flushdraws tho it actually increases our equity to 64%.However this is where we get lost.How many combos can we eliminate now w/ a flush draw on the board.If we don't know our plan goes to shit.With the info we've got we stick to plan and keep betting.Villain raises,we're committed and all in.

Turn: ($0.94) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.90, SB raises to $1.53 (All-In), Hero calls $0.63


River: ($4) (2 players, 1 all-in)

Villain shows the ace high flush.

cool thing about this hand is that it illustrates how we can make mistakes in planning, through assigning inaccurate ranges etc. Like, an uber-maniac can have the plan to bet pot/raise pot every chance he gets. He has a plan, his problem isn't lack of a plan, it's the formation of his plan.

Originally Posted by daven

agree that folding is always fine here, but the point is mostly that calling (which is often a default play in this spot for micro players) is probably the worst of 3 options.

that wasn't my point. i think this is a pretty clear call if we're 100bb's deep against the 70/3.

As we move up, it becomes much more important to understand our opponent's planning for their hands rather than our own. At 25NL and beyond, we should already pretty much understand the basics of SPR and planning our own hands as well as mixing up our play and merging our range.

We plan our hands based on how our opponents plan their hands and if they are decent, how they plan their hands based on how we plan our hands etc.

bumb before it hits page 2

I'd love to see this in beginners digest.How about co-article on the importance of knowing and understanding villains range and some tips on how to assign and draw conclusions on said range.

Originally Posted by supahaole

I'd love to see this in beginners digest.How about co-article on the importance of knowing and understanding villains range and some tips on how to assign and draw conclusions on said range.

great idea. You will gain loads from researching this then writing this.
First step, download stove and get a feel for what ranges look like.
Way back when i made a list of # of combos vs # of possible hands to get a feel for the various % making up a range.
e.g. there are 16 combos of AK, 4 of them suited.
there are 6 combos of 33 (none of them suited).
there are xxxxxx (you do the math ) combos of starting hands.

couple of further hints - read articles and digest threads about this topic. Spoon and Robb wrote a bunch of stuff that is likely relevant, look for bc threads started by them. Have fun!

Good thread Daven.

Insta Digest .....

very good post. thanks for this daven.

an article worth reading that has some relevance on the plan your hands front - written by someone who is actually decent at poker
Implied Betting :Suited Aces

the redline comment is interesting...

Originally Posted by daven

an article worth reading that has some relevance on the plan your hands front - written by someone who is actually decent at poker
Implied Betting :Suited Aces

the redline comment is interesting...

good read...thanks

Originally Posted by daven

an article worth reading that has some relevance on the plan your hands front - written by someone who is actually decent at poker
Implied Betting :Suited Aces

the redline comment is interesting...

Great find, thanks. I really haven't considered the effects implied odds has on folding. I guess I've folded because I knew villain was gonna fire again and that I wouldn't be calling, but understanding how it ties in to planning hands will be huge for me.

Bringing up the redline thing again scare the piss out of me. I might jump back in that conversation if it comes back around tho.