Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,256,000 Posts!
Poker ForumBeginners Circle

Oh shit.....I won

Results 1 to 12 of 12
  1. #1

    Default Oh shit.....I won

    So I'm not new to poker. I've been playing live for over 11 years. I started out in tournaments as that was the only game legal in live venues in my area. Eventually cash games became available and I've focused on that almost exclusively for about 5 years now. I consider myself to be a well-above average player in my player pool, and I beat 1/2 and 2/5 games decisively.

    Anyway, the point of all this is that I started out as a fish during the poker boom days and have evolved into something pretty good since then, but only in low stakes live games. My goal is to become a live pro after my kids are grown. I did manage to pay all of my bills by playing poker for a period of about 14 months following my divorce and a cruelly-timed layoff. I wouldn't say it was a "comfortable" lifestyle, but I think I proved that it's possible for this game to be a path to a comfortable retirement for me. So that's what I'm working towards. I can't do it now because I have 3 kids and I need a job with a steady income and a dental plan.

    Back in my fishy-days, I would play on Full Tilt. It never went well. I clicked alot of buttons, I tilted alot, and overall was just not a good player. I pretty much swore off online poker years ago, but have gotten back into it a little bit over the last year or so, mainly as a way to "practice" and stay sharp for my live sessions. I've found that if my live game gets a little tilty, foggy, or I just need to work through a downswing, then grinding some micros online has helped me sort of "reset".

    I admit, my approach to the online game has been bad if my motive was profit. However, my motive was education and practice, so I don't think I did anything wrong. Though, as I become more succesful in live poker, there has been somewhat of a destructive pattern online. I would deposit the minimum, like $50, and I would grind 2 and 5NL. Once I felt "calibrated" i would go back to the live table, do well, and assume everything is fine. The $70 or so I have online doesn't seem to matter when I just made $2K in five hours in a casino. So I would take a shot with my online roll and play 25 or 50NL with a ridiculous risk of ruin. lol, guess what happens?

    A few months later, my live game needs an adjustment, I deposit $50 again, and the cycle repeats.

    Lately, I've been dabbling in tournaments again. I stopped playing them years ago because I felt there was so much more money in cash games. But the structures online are so much better than live tournaments, plus they usually don't take more than a couple hours, so I've been giving them a shot.

    Last weekend I took 6th in a $22 tournament with a $25K garauntee. So now I have $700 something in my account.

    WTF do I do??

    I looked into cashing it out. ACR wants my ID, utility bill, etc. I'm not sure I want to send a recipe for identity theft to an overseas outfit just for $700. I might risk it for $7 million, so how do I get there?

    What ring game stakes would you recommend that I play given my history ?

    Also, regarding tournament play

    1) Is there actually *real* money in grinding these things? How often does a "good" player ship one of these things for 4+ figures?

    2) ACR tourneys usually have very very long late reg periods. Is there a "best time" to register? In the $25K garauntee that I played, there were 5 hours of late registration. Towards the end, you were only buying in for 5-10 big blinds, but you're also buying into a situation where 80+% of the field stands to get paid. Is there a "sweet spot", perhaps in terms of # of BB's, where it's optimal to start playing a tournament?

    3) The tourney I played had almost 1900 buy-ins, but only about 1000 unique players. So obviously, a lot of them are re-entering after they bust during the late-reg period. Is this a good strategy? I assume that they are gambling it up early in an attempt to build a big stack, and then getting deep when they are successful. This makes sense, but it also must destroy your ROI when you're buying in for $44 or $66, and the payouts are thin (216 got paid and most prizes were under $50). I've only ever put one buy-in into any single tournament. Is that a mistake?

    I have a lot more questions about transitioning from live to online. I'll try and contain them in separate future posts. For now I'm just looking for suggestions on what stakes ring games I should play, and some of the dirt on how to make money in tourneys.

    Thanks
    Last edited by BananaStand; 12-07-2016 at 12:37 PM.
  2. #2
    I would say your idea about playing live for some extra cash and fun in retirement is more than fine. Just be aware that a crusher with a strong mental game is probably beating 2/5 for 25bb/100 hands long term, which is only about $30 per hour. Not bad, but not enough to live like a king.

    To chip in on your general questions:
    - depends how confident you are that ACR is trustworthy and whether you need the money.
    - you haven't proved you can beat 10nl, plus you'd want 30+ buy ins for 25nl, so I'd play 10nl or mtts up to $11 buy in.

    On your specific questions:
    1) Mtts are much easier to beat than cash in my experience, but the variance can be sickening and you need a strong mental game to handle it. A typical stretch might be to lose 50BI over 100 tournaments and then win 75BI with one bink. That would still be classed as a strong win rate with 25% ROI. If you wanted to average $100 per day at 25% ROI, you'd need to be playing $400 of mtts per day on average. That would be foolish with your current bankroll.

    2) The time you buy in is really a matter of where your skill edge is. If you're relatively strong playing deep, then you'll want to buy in earlier. In the WCOOP $100k BI this year, a lot of the cash players bought in early and all the mtt players bought in later, as they are stronger at short stack play but would be crushed at deeper stacks by the cash game specialists. My experience is that it's better to buy in at the start, as that's where inexperienced players make the biggest mistakes and give away their stacks.

    3) This is a common misconception. If you are plus EV in a tournament, you should re-enter. It's no different to entering two different tournaments for the same entry fee, so the fact that a min cash is less than your buy ins is irrelevant. If your ROI is 25% in that field, then you're making money long term. The only distinction is if you bust out late and all of your ROI comes from playing deeper stacks.

    Note that rebuy mtts are different. They have a very different strategy where gambling up early may be best. I've rarely played them, so can't comment.
  3. #3
    OngBonga's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    16,010
    Location
    England
    $700 is just about an acceptable roll for a shot at $25nl, but I'd be stepping back down at $500, which means it's an 8 BI shot, and thus leaves you vulnerable to an immediate downswing. If you've not at least broken even at $25nl, I'd say you're better off sticking at $10nl until you have $1k.

    I've played my fair share of rebuys, had a few decent cash outs. Generally, I play tight but super aggressive with my first BI, looking for tptk and better vs dominated pairs and draws, hoping to build enough of a stack to start comfortably taking shots at the short stacks. If I bust, I'll rebuy and play a little looser and less aggressive, a more standard MTT game. I'll always add on if the option is there. So when I enter a rebuy game, I'm multiplying the buy in by three to decide if it's affordable. If there's only one rebuy allowed, it's worth noting who has used up their rebuy, as they will be much easier to bully as the add on break approaches. Personally, I tend to prefer multiple buy in games because the crazy all in guys bloat the prize pool considerably, though it's important to figure out before you enter what your maximum investment will be, and stick to it.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #4
    OngBonga's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    16,010
    Location
    England
    As for when to enter a tourney, I would say the earlier the better. Joining later will possibly increase your chances of making the cash, but it'll decrease your chances of going deep. I'd have though we're playing for the big prizes, not to tread water.

    There's no analysis behind that opinion though.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by The Bean Counter View Post
    3) This is a common misconception. If you are plus EV in a tournament, you should re-enter. It's no different to entering two different tournaments for the same entry fee, so the fact that a min cash is less than your buy ins is irrelevant. If your ROI is 25% in that field, then you're making money long term. The only distinction is if you bust out late and all of your ROI comes from playing deeper stacks.
    Hmmm, this doesn't sound quite right. It is different than entering two different tournaments for the same entry fee. If I simply bought into another MTT, all of my opponents would start with the same stack as I do. If I Re-enter an existing tournament, I come in at less, sometimes significantly, than the average stack.

    I do agree that if it's +EV to play, then play. But at some point, a smaller stack size has to be enough of a disadvantage for the game to be -EV.
  6. #6
    OngBonga's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    16,010
    Location
    England
    banana has a point there, I might not rebuy into a game, even if I haven't yet done so, because my stack will be too short and I'll need to hold out for more time until add on. I'd want to be rebuying for at least 20bb, or half the average stack, or right before add on. That's not like a strict set of rules I apply, just pulling numbers out of my arse to be honest, but stack size and time left are factors that I take into account.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  7. #7
    Thanks Ong. Just to clarify though, I'm talking about Re-entry, not re-buy. There is no 'add-on'. There is just a very long registration period where you can buy in for a fresh stack and go from there. You get a new seat too.
  8. #8
    That right, it will depend on the stage you bust out and where your skill edge is. You could probably come up with a set of rules, like if more than 50% of the field has bust you don't re-enter as you'd be buying in for less than half average stack, unless average stack was above x big blinds. Or if you could rebuy for 15bb with 75% of the field already eliminated say, but estimate you have a 50% chance of at least min cashing or better, with the min cash near double buy in.
  9. #9
    OngBonga's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    16,010
    Location
    England
    Quote Originally Posted by BananaStand View Post
    Thanks Ong. Just to clarify though, I'm talking about Re-entry, not re-buy. There is no 'add-on'. There is just a very long registration period where you can buy in for a fresh stack and go from there. You get a new seat too.
    I haven't played that format, but I'd treat it as a regular MTT, and assess at the time of bust if a rebuy was worth bothering with.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  10. #10
    you're a legend bru
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I haven't played that format, but I'd treat it as a regular MTT, and assess at the time of bust if a rebuy was worth bothering with.
    That's exactly what I'm doing. But I'm not sure how to assess if the rebuy is worth it.

    Bean counter suggested that I come up with some "rules", like "X# of BB's is still playable". Or "Rebuy if starting stack is X% of average stack and Y% of the field gets paid"

    Any suggestions on what those rules might be?

    It's somewhat difficult to determine what % of the field gets paid sometimes when the reg periods are extra long. In one instance, the late reg period was 5 hours. If I bust out 2 hours in, I'm still 3 hours from closing, so I can only guess how big the final field will actually be.

    Sometimes if the tournament has a garaunteed prize pool, it's easier to guess how big the final field might be. When that's not the case though, you're kinda flying blind.
  12. #12
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Posts
    7,004
    Location
    St Louis, MO
    You can't know exactly how many people will be in the final field, but you can observe that the final field is usually ~2x the initial field, (I just made that up, it's a bogus number as far as I know, but there is some number which is not bogus which would inform your decision.)

    So once you know the expected final field, you can base your decision on that. It was literally the most you could have known at the time you were forced to decide. Same as putting your opponents on a range and making the best decision based on that range.


    Just form your data set into an EV calc and you'll have your answer. Like, if the field is AAA, then I expect to win 1st prize BBB% of the time and 2nd prize CCC% of the time, etc. You multiply the value of each outcome by the chance of that outcome, then you add all those products together, and you have the EV. If the EV of re-buying is greater than the cost of the re-buy, then you print monies by re-buying.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •