Nut flush raised AI on river

Villain 26/8

(yes river bet is too small i know)

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

Hero (SB) ($50)
BB ($20)
UTG ($63.15)
UTG+1 ($24.15)
MP1 ($19.25)
MP2 ($50)
CO ($84.05)
Button ($57.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, A
UTG calls $0.50, 4 folds, Button calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($2) J, Q, 6 (4 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $1.40, 1 fold, Hero raises $5.40, 1 fold, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($12.80) J (2 players)
Hero bets $7.90, UTG calls $7.90

River: ($28.60) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $12.95, UTG raises $49.35 (All-In), Hero ???

26-8 over how many?
looks like a fold

I'd fold too.

Bet size is fine. Not much he can call with.
ldo fold to raise.

Idk..how often do you think he shows up with a naked jack? Or like KJ with k of spades? Maybe his view on your river sizing is a cheap showdown, or thin value bet. I would prob. Fold but I would be iffy as he contains a lot of combos that we beat. We only lose to QQ,Qj,j7, which j7 we can rule out, so QQ or Qj. Idk tough spot.

23.25/64.80 = 35%

66 = 3 combos
77 = 3 combos
QQ = 3 combos
JJ = 1 combo
QJs = 2 combos

12 combos we lose to. He needs to be shoving with 4 combos of worse flush/trips/bluff to breakeven?

I'm a fish, cawl.

Been a long time since I've done the whole bet/bet+pot or w/e thang. Might need to add the 23.25 to the 64.80 making it even easier for me to click that worn out call button.

Passive fish opens UTG, bet-calls a check-raise on scary board, calls turn, shoves over river...we are beat. His range is probably 4 combos (QQ, JJ). He's not turning two black kings into a bluff.

You don't see ANY worse flushes in his range here, EVER?

you know I missed that he limped UTG, I thought he raised. He still doesn't have many given the cards on the board and in our hand, the best flush he can have is K9ss, K8ss-K2ss...after that it's 98ss. This guy doesn't play a ton of bad hands, he's mostly passive and probably just calls with medium-strength hands and in the blinds too much so I don't see him limping 76s UTG.

Given that we only need our equity to be 22% here I think it's pretty close.

QQ/JJ/66/QJ for his value range and 3 flushes make it a call.

In game I'd probably fold.

Iunno why you are giving UTG limper QQ/JJ(at least not every combo). That said we need to be good 22%. That said I'm not folding because finding out what he limped UTG and played this way is worth something<--- awesome advice call for info lolrite. Also our sizing might have induced some kind of crazy spazz w/ KT and Ks which probably isn't the most farfetched hand ever or even just has KJ/AJ that thinks his hand is now good beacuse of our sizing.

If we have postflop reads here that says he's like raised once of like 15 opportunities then by all means fold but we just have 2 preflop stats that have very little relevance on his postflop tendences. Not enough to assume this is a fold when we need 22% at least.

Not even the raised once in 15 read. more like you seen him call down w/ the near nuts in a situation where his opponent looks strong.

Also forgot to mention timing is SUPER important here. If he just snap jams when you bet you can pretty much be 100% sure u are never good 22% of the time. If he thinks for like longer then 2seconds that's when everything I said becomes relevant. turn timing is important too. also if you don't know what his timing was. please start paying attention to wtf is going on in pots over 20bb and you'll love the new found tells(sizing and timing) you'll pick up on just because you are focused on wtf is happening in these pots

I think isoing pre should at least be considered. I'd do it.

c/r flop makes no sense to me, seems like a clear lead.

not folding river as played.

Originally Posted by d0zer

I think isoing pre should at least be considered. I'd do it.

c/r flop makes no sense to me, seems like a clear lead.

not folding river as played.

Appreciate the thought but it turned out to be a leak

I actually think this was much closer than many others did considering pot odds

Does anyone agree a made flush raises the turn? Probably a minriase

I think my biggest problem in this given pot is that I never expected to see a shove only a call/fold and occasional minraise

River was quick but not instant - which I think also caught me by surprise but I'm not so keen on feedback on timig tells as the 30/10 types play so face up it is rarely required - add to that I was playing 24 tables at the time...

wats a leak?

so he turned up with 666 full I guess? I don't think river is a fistpump or anything, we just have to discount JJ/QQ given preflop and give him QJ, 66 and worse flushes that have done some retarded slowplay, as fish like this are known to do.

I would think a flopped flush 3-bets the flop, especially considering it's probably going to be king-high.

Did you fold this? It changes a bit now that I realize he didn't raise but limped; I still don't think we're good too often here, it just means he has more 66/QJ. As mentioned, it's hard to come up with 3 combos of flushes he can really have.

I think the sizing is fine, incidentally. I don't think an unimaginative 30-10 type (as you say) perceives this as a blocker/weakness.

Originally Posted by baudib

I would think a flopped flush 3-bets the flop, especially considering it's probably going to be king-high.

That's assuming a lot out of a fish who is probably really excited he just made his flush. Those guys often go into tarp mode.

Originally Posted by baudib

I would think a flopped flush 3-bets the flop, especially considering it's probably going to be king-high.

Did you fold this? It changes a bit now that I realize he didn't raise but limped; I still don't think we're good too often here, it just means he has more 66/QJ. As mentioned, it's hard to come up with 3 combos of flushes he can really have.

I think the sizing is fine, incidentally. I don't think an unimaginative 30-10 type (as you say) perceives this as a blocker/weakness.

Yes i folded so i dont know what he had - i feel QJ is much more likely than any big PP making a boat.

What surprised me was that if i am beaten here that he called the turn and didnt insta-tip his hand strength there, but instead on the river.

Originally Posted by d0zer

wats a leak?

so he turned up with 666 full I guess? I don't think river is a fistpump or anything, we just have to discount JJ/QQ given preflop and give him QJ, 66 and worse flushes that have done some retarded slowplay, as fish like this are known to do.

yepyep pretty much this. also just because you see that you lose doesn't make a call bad ldo

Originally Posted by Icanhastreebet

Iunno why you are giving UTG limper QQ/JJ(at least not every combo). That said we need to be good 22%. That said I'm not folding because finding out what he limped UTG and played this way is worth something<--- awesome advice call for info lolrite. Also our sizing might have induced some kind of crazy spazz w/ KT and Ks which probably isn't the most farfetched hand ever or even just has KJ/AJ that thinks his hand is now good beacuse of our sizing.

If we have postflop reads here that says he's like raised once of like 15 opportunities then by all means fold but we just have 2 preflop stats that have very little relevance on his postflop tendences. Not enough to assume this is a fold when we need 22% at least.

Not even the raised once in 15 read. more like you seen him call down w/ the near nuts in a situation where his opponent looks strong.

Also forgot to mention timing is SUPER important here. If he just snap jams when you bet you can pretty much be 100% sure u are never good 22% of the time. If he thinks for like longer then 2seconds that's when everything I said becomes relevant. turn timing is important too. also if you don't know what his timing was. please start paying attention to wtf is going on in pots over 20bb and you'll love the new found tells(sizing and timing) you'll pick up on just because you are focused on wtf is happening in these pots

this post just destroyed this thread. all of u read this if u didn't already.