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NLHE Foundations Course #02: Hand Analysis

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  1. #1
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Video NLHE Foundations Course #02: Hand Analysis

    This is the thread for the hand analysis exercise listed as a part of the second lesson in the NLHE Foundations Course. If you're interested in this free course, then all you have to do is add a post to this thread letting me know that you want to be in it, and I'll send you PMs showing you how to work through the lessons starting from the beginning.

    For this lesson's exercise, please post all of your analysis including how you're putting your opponent on a range since that's an important skill we're going to be developing as a critical part of this course.

    Important

    This is one of those exercises where some people might feel intimidated or lacking because one person's analysis is longer than the other's. Don't worry about that at all because we're just using this to build to something else. Just do what you feel like doing with it because as long as you do the exercise like I asked, you're doing just fine.

    If you want to analyze other bluffs along these lines, then feel free to post threads in the SSNL forum.
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 06-22-2015 at 06:50 PM.
  2. #2
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    Related Fun Fact

    I want to throw out a related fun fact here. There are 1326 starting hand combinations possible before you take out any cards. If someone is open raising 15 percent of hands in some position, for example, then you can take 15 percent of 1326 to get 198.9, which is the average number of combinations that they would have in their open raising range.

    It's not all that important for this lesson, but it's something worth thinking about a little for the future.
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 06-21-2015 at 11:10 AM.
  3. #3
    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from

    MP ($25.14)
    Button ($24.65)
    SB ($84.86)
    Hero (BB) ($25)
    UTG ($34.62)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 6
    2 folds, Button raises to $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.50

    Flop: ($1.60) 4, 3, Q (2 players)
    Hero checks, Button bets $1.05, Hero raises to $3.10



    First hand at the table. Population is opening 26% and cbetting 66%.
    Opening about 25% of 1326 = 332 combos
    Preflop rangeocket pairs
    broadways
    suited aces
    Suited connectors
    Discounted combos:Axo
    Kxs
    suited gappers
    some offsuit connectors

    I'm going to count combos by finding the % of hands (using pokerstove) that the range is and multiplying it by 1326 (making sure to discount combos for the board and my hand).

    cbet-continue range: overpairs,sets, Qx, some A5,A4,A3,A2, some pocket pairs, 76s,65s ~119 combos
    cbet-fold range:Axs, Kxs,Axo, missed broadways, some AK, suited connectors, suited gappers, some pocket pairs ~ 164 combos



    This would be cbetting 85%, which I think is too high. I think I should remove 4x,3x, pocket pairs from cbetting range
    new cbet-continue rangeverpairs,sets, Qx, A2s, 65s, 76s ~99 combos
    new cbet-fold range: Axs,Kxs,Axo, broadways, suited connectors, gappers ~156 combos
    this is cbetting 76% which is still higher than population average overall. I think cbet will be higher than 66% on this board, because there aren't a ton of medium strength hands that people will be checking back.

    Was the bluff profitable?
    I put in 3.10, and the pot was (1.60+1.05) 2.65 before my raise. Assuming I lose whenever he doesn't fold flop, he needs to fold 3.10/(3.10+2.65) or ~54% of the time

    The original range I had had him folding 164/(119+164) = 58%
    Tighter cbet range had him folding 156/(99+156) = 61%

    It is possible that the population is cbetting less on dry boards like this. If villain on average is betting 55% instead of 75% here my analysis may be way off.
  4. #4




    He is opening 33 in BU. He is folding to 3bet 46% (0% en BU so far) and he has a 4bet of 20 (6% of his 33OR), so i think a passive defense is better.
    My reasoning behind his river range is that his cbet and x/f stats are a little on the low side. So i guess that he is checking with something like second pairs and TP no kicker.
    Since the only way i can win this unimproved hand is bluffing, i decide to bluff the turn and river.
    I think his range on the river is something like QQ(6), JJ(6), TT(3), KT(9), K9(9), K8s(3), K7s(3).
    Given his fold to river bet of 66, i think he is capable of folding a second pair, so his folding range would be: QQ(6), JJ(6), TT(3).
    Total range: 39 combos
    Folding range: 15 combos
    15/39= 0.384
    If i bet 1/2 pot i need a 33% success
    If i bet 2/3 i need a 40% of success


    Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: $15.20 (60.8 bb)
    Hero (BB): $29.79 (119.2 bb)
    UTG+1: $25 (100 bb)
    UTG+2: $47.35 (189.4 bb)
    MP1: $24.65 (98.6 bb)
    MP2: $25 (100 bb)
    MP3: $27.70 (110.8 bb)
    CO: $9.65 (38.6 bb)
    BTN: $42.57 (170.3 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with T A
    6 folds, BTN raises to $0.62, SB folds, Hero calls $0.37

    Flop: ($1.34) K 3 2 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN checks

    Turn: ($1.34) 9 (2 players)
    Hero bets $0.64, BTN calls $0.64

    River: ($2.62) 6 (2 players)
    Hero bets $1.31, BTN folds
  5. #5
    his cbet is 50% right? do you think hes cbetting all of his 9x on the flop?
  6. #6
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by relaywisp View Post
    Was the bluff profitable?
    I put in 3.10, and the pot was (1.60+1.05) 2.65 before my raise. Assuming I lose whenever he doesn't fold flop, he needs to fold 3.10/(3.10+2.65) or ~54% of the time

    The original range I had had him folding 164/(119+164) = 58%
    Tighter cbet range had him folding 156/(99+156) = 61%

    It is possible that the population is cbetting less on dry boards like this. If villain on average is betting 55% instead of 75% here my analysis may be way off.
    Quick note for everyone that we're going to look at how to get better estimates of whether we're profitable with semi-bluffs like this later, so the fact that you have outs to a strong hand will be incorporated into the situation later on.

    Quote Originally Posted by MarinaD View Post
    Since the only way i can win this unimproved hand is bluffing
    I just want to point out that him having a low c-bet could mean that he's not necessarily bluffing the flop all that much. Along these lines, he's checking the flop with a number of hands that you beat, so there are plenty that you could check behind and beat with your A-high. It doesn't really change the hand that much by the river, but I just want you to be aware of what could be a slight contradiction in your thought process regarding the turn.



    Also, we have a randomness/general chat thread at this link that we'd really like you guys to get in on so that you can meet some cool people here at FTR besides me.
  7. #7
    I don't think he is checking behind with A high on a K high board and calling a turn bet.
    Yeah, his low cbet flop could mean that he is no bluffing a lot, but his low x/f makes me think that he is betting with his strong and weak hands, and checking with his medium strength ones.
    Y try not to be very optimistic when doing a bluff
  8. #8
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MarinaD View Post
    I don't think he is checking behind with A high on a K high board and calling a turn bet.
    Yeah, his low cbet flop could mean that he is no bluffing a lot, but his low x/f makes me think that he is betting with his strong and weak hands, and checking with his medium strength ones.
    Y try not to be very optimistic when doing a bluff
    @bold, Hey it's my fault for not clarifying, but I was talking about the turn instead of the river hehe.
  9. #9
    Here’s mine…
    This is a spot where I was considering a 4-bet bluff. Didn’t have enough hands on villain for any accurate read but he had 3-bet my steals a couple of times. For the sake of this exercise I’ll assume these stats are reliable.

    PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

    Hero (BTN): 146.5 BB
    SB (SB): 100 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 20.59, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 36)
    BB (BB): 142.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
    UTG (UTG): 85 BB (VPIP: 28.36, PFR: 17.91, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 71)
    CO (CO): 103.5 BB (VPIP: 21.26, PFR: 14.01, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 210)

    SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Dealt to Hero:
    Jd 6d

    fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, SB raises to 13 BB, fold, Hero?


    3B% of 16. As he’s raising my BTN open I’ll assume the wider part of his 3B range which would look like:
    33+,A3s+,KTs+,A7o+ = 200 combos
    If I 4-bet in this situation this situation I would typically bet just under 3x his raise so I’m considering a 4bet of 35BB.
    I estimate he will continue against this raise with a range of:
    TT+ AQs+ AKo = 51 combos
    So He’s folding 149 combination of starting hands
    = Fold frequency of 0.75
    My raise makes the pot 54BB. 35/54 = 0.648
    0.648 < 0.75 so I’m going to conclude that a bluff in this spot is profitable?
    I know the range I’ve given him here is highly debateable given the small sample size and that most opponents will tighten up more than this to a 4-bet, but I just settled on these ranges to practice this week’s lesson.
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by 1QDOG7 View Post
    Here’s mine…
    This is a spot where I was considering a 4-bet bluff. Didn’t have enough hands on villain for any accurate read but he had 3-bet my steals a couple of times. For the sake of this exercise I’ll assume these stats are reliable.

    PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

    Hero (BTN): 146.5 BB
    SB (SB): 100 BB (VPIP: 22.86, PFR: 20.59, 3Bet Preflop: 16.67, Hands: 36)
    BB (BB): 142.5 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
    UTG (UTG): 85 BB (VPIP: 28.36, PFR: 17.91, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 71)
    CO (CO): 103.5 BB (VPIP: 21.26, PFR: 14.01, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 210)

    SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

    Dealt to Hero:
    Jd 6d

    fold, fold, Hero raises to 4 BB, SB raises to 13 BB, fold, Hero?


    3B% of 16. As he’s raising my BTN open I’ll assume the wider part of his 3B range which would look like:
    33+,A3s+,KTs+,A7o+ = 200 combos
    If I 4-bet in this situation this situation I would typically bet just under 3x his raise so I’m considering a 4bet of 35BB.
    I estimate he will continue against this raise with a range of:
    TT+ AQs+ AKo = 51 combos
    So He’s folding 149 combination of starting hands
    = Fold frequency of 0.75
    My raise makes the pot 54BB. 35/54 = 0.648
    0.648 < 0.75 so I’m going to conclude that a bluff in this spot is profitable?
    I know the range I’ve given him here is highly debateable given the small sample size and that most opponents will tighten up more than this to a 4-bet, but I just settled on these ranges to practice this week’s lesson.
    I think that there are some mistakes.
    Since you've already put 4bb with your open raise, you are only risking 31bb, not 35bb.
    The total pot would be = 4bb (your or) + 13bb (his 3bet) + 1bb (the big blind) + 31bb (your 4bet) = 49bb

    So 31/49= 0.632

    Also, i would make the 4bet a bit smaller. Between 28bb-32bb.

    It's difficult to give an unknown villain a 3bet range.
    16% can look like:

    Yours:
    16a.jpg

    With more blockers:
    16b.jpg

    Or some other morphology.

    In this case i don't think it's relevant because you are not blocking lots of combos with your J6s and i think his all in range is the same despite his morphology. But your analysis may vary with a hand with blockers like KQ for example.
  11. #11
    All good points. Thanks man. More practice needed methinks.
  12. #12
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    You guys are doing pretty good with this. I'm glad to see so many people taking this seriously.



    I'll give another example without a specific range. I'll just give the numbers for the combinations.

    Suppose I think my opponent has 58 combinations, and a total of 28 of those fold. We do 28/58 to find that we think he's folding about 48.3 percent of the time.

    I'm betting $8 into a pot of $12. My bet size is $8, and the pot after I bet is $20, and since 8/20 is 0.4 or 40 percent, I know that I'll need my opponent to fold at least 40 percent of the time for my bluff to be good in a vacuum.

    Along these lines, my bluff should be profitable.
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 06-25-2015 at 10:32 AM.
  13. #13
    PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

    Button ($4.93)
    SB ($5)
    BB ($1.09)
    UTG ($14.82)
    UTG+1 ($2.95)
    MP1 ($3.32)
    MP2 ($5.13)
    MP3 ($5.11)
    Hero (CO) ($8.81)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with A, K
    UTG raises to $0.15, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.15, 3 folds

    Flop: ($0.52) 3, 3, 4 (3 players)
    UTG bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30

    Turn: ($1.12) Q (2 players)
    UTG bets $0.45, Hero raises to $1.19, UTG calls $0.74

    River: ($3.50) 10 (2 players)
    UTG checks, Hero bets $1.76

    Total pot: $3.50 | Rake: $0.15

    Preflop I didn't 3bet because I don't know my opponent and there are lots of players playing really tight on UTG at zoom NL5 I range him with 66+ A9s+, ATo+ and KJs+ and KQo

    The flop doesn't hit his range nor mine, but I decide to call because he won't have a pp always, and with AK I'm beating all of his hands that didn't connect. Also I have position on him, and I will play some flush draws that way so it helps me to balance my range (I don't think this is important at this level).

    The turn completes the flush and also brings a Q, now I decided to turn my hand into a bluff. I think on the turn, I get called by 99+, AQ, KQ and possible a hand with the ace of hearts, like AhJx, AhKx and AhTx, and of course flush draws (AhKh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, KhJh)

    On the river I'm betting 1,76 into a 3,50 pot so: 1,76/(1,76+3,50)=0,334
    This means I need to get called 33% of times or less, for the bluff to be profitable in a vacuum.

    all his possible combinations:

    99(6), TT(3), JJ(6), QQ(3), KK(3), AA(3), AQ(9), KQ(9), AhJx(3), AhKx(2),AhTx(2), AhKh(1), AhJh(1), AhTh(1), Ah9h(1), KhJh(1).

    I expect to get called by all the flushes and full houses and AA or KK so:
    total possible combinations: 51
    combinatios I get called with: 17
    17/51=0,333
    So this bluff will be slight profitable in a vacuum on the long run, now I realize it might have not been the right choice to make this bluff. What do you think guys?
  14. #14
    Villain is one of the more aggressive regs I play against. We have a lot of history PF with 3bs and some postflop 3b pots. Nothing too memorable in single raised pots.

    27/20/2.5 40% stl, 7% 3b PF, 25% fold to 3b PF (lol) , folds to flop and turn cbets 40% of the time.




    Button ($183.43)
    SB ($111.11)
    BB ($200)
    Hero (UTG) ($205.45)
    MP ($293.70)
    CO ($86.45)


    Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 10
    Hero raises $6, MP calls $6, 4 folds


    Flop: ($15) 7, Q, 5 (2 players)
    Hero bets $10, MP calls $10


    Turn: ($35) K (2 players)
    Hero bets $23.33, MP calls $23.33


    River: ($81.66) 4 (2 players)
    Hero bets $44.83, 1 fold


    Total pot: $81.66


    Results below:
    Spoiler:

    Hero had 9, 10 (high card, King).
    Outcome: Hero won $122.49



    I think once we get to the river his range is QT, QJ, and busted draws most of the time. He may have something like KT or KJ which he floated the flop with and was planning on making a move on the turn if we checked. I highly doubt he has 6c8c/4c6c or has 5cXc as that would have been a raise on the flop from this player. Doubt he has KQ (or sets) due to no raises postflop on this wet board.

    Folds:
    QT (12)
    QJ (12)
    Flush draw clubs: A2, A3, A4, A6, A8, A9, AT, AJ,
    Flush Draw diamonds: 89, AJ,

    34 combos

    Calls/Raises:
    KT (12), KJ (12), 6d8d (1)

    25 combos

    59 Combos total. 25/59 = 42% so folding 58% of the time
    $44.83 + $81.66 = $126.49
    44.83/126.49 = 35% of the he needs to fold to breakeven. From his range he is folding 58% of the time.

    I did not include AQ in his calling range as I feel with our dynamics it would’ve been a 3b preflop. Even if we did include AQ, the amount of hands he folds still makes the river bet profitable.

    Normally I will get in a situation like this and just think in real time “His range has a lot more Draw/Q hands that he will fold than hands with K or something that may call” without actually doing the math later on. Ofcourse my math could be completely off here lol or didn’t account for some hands he may have in his fold or calling range. Still I like these exercises as it makes you think off the table.
    Last edited by Sup3rM4N; 06-25-2015 at 03:13 PM.
  15. #15
    @matiusaa

    I'd expect that he folds 9s-Js on the turn more often than he calls 6s-8s on the turn and folds the river. He may also be calling AQ some % on the river. I think its more likely that hes calling more often than the 33.3% than he is calling less than 33.3%. If the bet is about breakeven with an optimistic range, then it likely isn't profitable.
    Last edited by relaywisp; 06-25-2015 at 02:22 PM.
  16. #16
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by relaywisp View Post
    @matiusaa

    I'd expect that he folds 9s-Js on the turn more often than he calls 6s-8s on the turn and folds the river. He may also be calling AQ some % on the river. I think its more likely that hes calling more often than the 33.3% than he is calling less than 33.3%. If the bet is about breakeven with an optimistic range, then it likely isn't profitable.
    I want to point out something here that I've pointed out in the lessons: Once you understand how the analysis works (which is the easy part), then almost all of this comes down to deciding on the ranges.

    This foundations course is about teaching you the basic tools you need so that you can do something constructive with those ranges.
  17. #17
    So I'm having difficulty putting someone on a range to begin with. It's easy for me to say, "Yeah they're an aggressive/conservative player" but how can I try to estimate people's ranges? Especially earlier in the game.
  18. #18
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kashkar View Post
    So I'm having difficulty putting someone on a range to begin with. It's easy for me to say, "Yeah they're an aggressive/conservative player" but how can I try to estimate people's ranges? Especially earlier in the game.
    We're going to build up to that as the final set of topics for this series, and we're actually really close to that part now. Just do your best on the exercises, and I promise that you'll see why we're doing things in this order.
  19. #19
    Ok, stole this hand from an old thread... No info on villain.

    $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players


    BTN: $16.49 (164.9 bb)

    SB: $11.34 (113.4 bb)
    BB: $8.59 (85.9 bb)
    UTG: $6.70 (67 bb)
    MP: $10.99 (109.9 bb)
    Hero (CO): $10.97 (109.7 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with J A
    UTG folds, MP raises to $0.40, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, MP calls $0.60

    Flop: ($2.15) 9 5 8 (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero bets $1, MP calls $1

    • Preflop I'll guess villain is raising with the fowling range... 22+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AQo+,KQo,QJo,JTo,T9o (171 Combinations)
    • Folding to our raise with... 88-22,JTo,T9o (63 Combinations)
    • Leaving him with the following to see the flop...99+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AQo+,KQo,QJo (108 Combinations)
    • The flop excludes 5 combinations from his range with the presence of the 9s (103 Combinations)
    • I don't discredit anything from villains range by him checking since I know nothing about him. (still 103 Combinations)
    • My guess is that our villain is folding the following to a 1/2 pot size bet... KcJc,KdJd,KsJs,KTs,QTs,KcJd,KcJs,KdJc,KdJs,KhJc,Kh Jd,KhJs,KsJc,KsJd (20 Combinations)
    • So, with villain folding only 19.5% (20/103) of the time we make this bet, & us needing him to fold over 32% ($1/$3.15) of the time in a vacuum, this doesn't appear to be a profitable bluff.
  20. #20
    I haven't been playing online lately so I'm just going to make up a situation.

    FR .05/.10 NL

    BTN: Hero
    UTG: Villain

    UTG raises to 3bb
    Folds to Hero
    Hero calls 3bb w/ JdTd
    SB & BB fold
    Flop (8bb): 6d6h2d

    Villain checks, Hero checks

    Turn (8bb): 8c

    Villain checks, Hero checks

    River (8bb): 9s

    Villain checks, Hero bets 6bb, Villain ???

    With no reads on Villain at .10NL I think it's important to allow that some non-standard hands for an UTG raise are in the PF range. Basically my intuition is that hands like AJo, KJ and AT are active here sometimes.

    So say he opens {77+, AJ+, KQ, 6 combos of KJ, 6 combos of AT}
    His post flop behavior pretty much rules out 77+ and suited diamonds. I'll leave AJdd, AQdd, and AKdd to allow that he doesn't always cbet the flush draw. We'll leave one combo of AA and one combo of 77 to represent the chance he's the passive sort or the sort to play high PP's super slow. I'll also pretend he cbets 50% of everything else.

    This leaves Villain on the river with 1 AA, 1 77, 6 AJ, 8 AQ, 8 AK, 7 KQ, 3 KJ, 3 AT for a total of 37 hands. I'll say Villain calls with all of the A-high hands half the time, AA, 77 (or whatever other pocket pair he may have not bet postflop with for whatever reason), and folds the rest. This means he's only calling with (1+1+3+4+4)/37 hands and 13/37 is <<< than 6/14 which makes it a pretty profitable bluff.
    I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it.
    -Thomas Jefferson

    Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.
    -Thomas Edison
  21. #21
    FR 2NLHE

    MP2: Hero
    UTG: Villain

    Villain stats: VPIP: 28 / PFR: 14 / 3BET: 0 (Hands: 173)

    UTG raises to 3bb
    Folds to Hero
    Hero raises to 9bb with AKo
    UTG calls

    Heads-up
    Flop (19,5bb): 2s 5h 7c
    Villain checks
    Hero bets 9,5bb
    Villain folds

    So before I try to calculate if this Cbet was +EV I assume that Villain has a opening range from UTG of about ~8% which is to loose I think but it would match to somebody with a VPIP of 26.
    So his 8% range would be: 77+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AQo+
    So I think that are about 82 combinations:
    77+ (6*6 + 2*3 = 42)
    AKo = 9
    AQo = 12
    AJs = 3
    ATs = 3
    KQs = 3
    KJs = 3
    KTs = 3
    QJ = 4

    But because Villain doesn't raise I exclude AA and KK (- 6 combinations)
    And he doesn't fold, so I exclude 77 and 88 (- 12 combinations)
    So his range when he calls consits of 64 Combinations.

    Then on the Flop (2s 5h 7c) I think he is calling with 99/TT/JJ/QQ would he also call with AKo? I don't know so I just expect he is calling with his overpairs.

    That means he is calling with 24 (99/TT/JJ/QQ) combinations and folding with 40 combinations.
    Thus he is folding: (40/64) of the time which is 0,625 so about 60% of the time.

    And because I am betting about half the pot, I just need him to fold about 32% of the time (9,5/29).
    So I my assumptions are correct it was a profitable cbet bluff.

    Please let me know where I am wrong.
  22. #22
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I think you shouldn't rule out all combos of KK+ from Villain's range.
    After all, he has a 3bet of 0. It's only 173 hands, but you haven't yet seen any evidence that Villain ever 3bets PRE, much less 4bets.

    After 173 hands, there is still ~25% chance that Villain has simply not been dealt KK+ yet.

    Consider including only some of the KK+ combos when you do your calculation.
  23. #23
    Ok thanks!
    But the best play is to 4Bet KK? I mean there is no reason to balacne your range at 2NL.
    Is the rest correct?
  24. #24
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pursu7it View Post
    Ok thanks!
    But the best play is to 4Bet KK? I mean there is no reason to balacne your range at 2NL.
    Is the rest correct?
    It's not about what is best so much as it's about what Villain thinks is best. We don't know for sure what Villain thinks, but most TAG Villains will play aggressively w/ KK+ (in my experience - if yours is different, then go with yours). This is in opposition to the stat that says 3bet 0. As such, I propose a compromise, where maybe you include 1/2 the combos of KK+ (or fewer).

    Is the rest correct?
    The math looks good to me.
    I won't 2nd guess the ranges you assigned to Villain.

    EDIT: that last line is a bit odd, given the rest of the post. I mean: The difference is only 1 - 3 combos, which wont effect the %-ages enough to make a significant difference.
  25. #25
    PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    UTG: $5.40
    MP: $10.00
    CO: $10.50
    BTN: $22.13
    SB: $15.39
    Hero (BB): $10.55

    SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K Q

    fold, MP raises to $0.30, fold, BTN calls $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.20

    Flop: ($0.95, 3 players) 4 5 J
    Hero checks, MP bets $0.60, fold, Hero raises to $2.00, fold

    Hero wins $2.05

    Villain is 19/14. CB 75%.

    OK, so villains range when he cbets is something like; AK(12), AQ(12), AJ(12), AT(16) Axdd(8), KQ(9), KJ(9), KT(12), QJ(9), QT(12), JT(12), AA(6), KK(3), QQ(3), JJ(3), TT(6), 99(6), 88(6), 77(6), 66(6), 55(3), 44(3). In total, 194 combos.

    Villain folds AK(12), AQ(12), AT(16), KQ(9), KT(12), QT(12), JT(6), TT(6), 99(6), 88(6), 77(6), 66(6). In total, 109 combos.

    Hands villain is folding 109. Total combos is 194. 109/194 = 0.56, villain is folding 56% of the time.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  26. #26
    At the risk of sounding stupid - why do we work out how often villain is folding? For example, I have just been playing around with ranges for a specific villain. I know he folds his steal to a 3b 88% of the time. I managed to work out villain's range to match this number.

    For context;

    Villain is 18/16 w/ 8% 3B. ATS is 30% from LP, he folds his steal to a 3B 88% of the time.

    I worked villain's range out to be the following;

    Stealing range; 22-AA(78), Axs(48), Axo/s(192), KTo+(48)

    QTo+(32), JTo(16), KTs+(12), QTs+(8), JTs(4), T9s(4), 98s(4), 87s(4), T9o(16)

    = 466

    Folding Range - 22-99(48), A2s-AJs(40), A2o-AJo(160), KTo+(48), QTo+(32), JTo(16)

    KTs-KQs(12), QTs-QJs(8), JTs(4), T9s(4), 98s(4), 87s(4), T9o(16), 98o(16)

    412/466 = 88%

    Now how do I apply this? Why have I gone through the effort of working out villain's range?
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  27. #27
    Unless it is to work out villain's continuing range? Because now we can estimate that villain only continues w/ TT+, AQo+, AQs+ and we can adjust our play accordingly?

    Which would be quite useful and would indeed mean that my question was tres stupid.

    Apologies.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  28. #28
    I think for this exercise it was just to see if the bluff was profitable. Take his folding % and compare it to how often you need him to fold to show a profit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cobra_1878 View Post
    Now how do I apply this? Why have I gone through the effort of working out villain's range?
    if we 3b to 10bb in the sb vs a 3bb open we autoprofit if he folds more than 9.5/(9.5+4.5) or about 2/3. Because he's folding 88% we can profitably 3b atc.
    Last edited by relaywisp; 08-12-2015 at 11:16 PM.
  29. #29
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cobra_1878 View Post
    At the risk of sounding stupid - why do we work out how often villain is folding? For example, I have just been playing around with ranges for a specific villain. I know he folds his steal to a 3b 88% of the time. I managed to work out villain's range to match this number.

    For context;

    Villain is 18/16 w/ 8% 3B. ATS is 30% from LP, he folds his steal to a 3B 88% of the time.

    I worked villain's range out to be the following;

    Stealing range; 22-AA(78), Axs(48), Axo/s(192), KTo+(48)

    QTo+(32), JTo(16), KTs+(12), QTs+(8), JTs(4), T9s(4), 98s(4), 87s(4), T9o(16)

    = 466

    Folding Range - 22-99(48), A2s-AJs(40), A2o-AJo(160), KTo+(48), QTo+(32), JTo(16)

    KTs-KQs(12), QTs-QJs(8), JTs(4), T9s(4), 98s(4), 87s(4), T9o(16), 98o(16)

    412/466 = 88%

    Now how do I apply this? Why have I gone through the effort of working out villain's range?
    It's important to know how often your opponent is folding because this gives you information on how to bluff against him and how to structure your range in general. If you know how often he's folding, you know whether you can bluff profitably with the shortcuts I've given.

    Also for the sake of this course, breaking down the ranges like this is also helping us because I'm teaching you how to train yourself to understand ranges on a more intuitive level. This takes a lot of practice, but instead of just doing endless mind-numbing practice for the sake of practice, we're targeting specific lessons with it (in this case, profitable bluffing).
  30. #30
    Villain - 33/29. ATS 90% from BU, FT3B after stealing 57%.


    ATS 90% - Range: 22+(78), A2s+(48), K2s+(44), Q2s+(40), J2s+(36), T2s+(32)

    92s+(28), 82s+(24), 72s+(20), 62s+(16), 52s+(12), 42s+(8), 32s(4), A2o+(192)

    K2o+(176), Q2o+(160), J2o+(144), T4o+(96), 94o+(80), 84o+(64), 74o+(48),

    63o+(48), 52o+(48), 42o+(32), 32o(16) - 1494 combos


    Folding 57% - Folding Range: K2s-K7s(24), Q2s-Q7s(24), J2s-J7s(24),

    T2s-T6s(20), 92s-96s(20), 82-86s(20), 72s-75s(16), 62s-64s(12), 52s-53s(8)

    42s+(8), 32s(4), K2o-K8o(112), Q2o-Q8o(112), J2o-J8o(112),

    T4o-T7o(64), 94o-97o(64), 84o-86o(48), 74o-75o(32), 63o-64o(32), 52o+(48),

    42o+(32), 32o(16) - 852 combos.


    852/1494 = 57%


    Villain is continuing w/ something like - 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s,

    A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o.


    3bet range should be merged - value heavy. 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KJo+.

    How does this look guys? It almost seems silly to suggest we could 3bet hands like QJs and KJo for value but I feel like villain is continuing so wide that we crush him with most broadways. Could we 3bet even wider?
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  31. #31
    Villain: 24/21. ATS 39%, FT3B after stealing 80%.


    ATS 39% - Range: 22+(78), A2s+(48), K7s+(24), Q7s+(20), J7s+(16), T7s+(12),

    97s+(8), 86s+(8), 75s+(8), 65s(4), A2o+(192), K9o+(64), Q9o+(48), J9o+(32),

    T8o+(32), 98o(16) - 610 combos


    Folding 80% - Folding Range: 22-99(48), A2s-A9s(32), K7s-KTs(16), Q7s-QJs(20),

    J7s-J9s(12), T7s+(12), 97s+(8), 86s+(8), 75s+(8), 65s(4), A2o-ATo(144),

    K9o-KJo(48), Q9o+(48), J9o+(32), T8o+(32), 98o(16) - 488


    488/610 = 80%


    Continuing w/ TT+, ATs+, KJs+, JTs, AJo+, KQo.


    3bet range should be polarized:

    (Value) QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ - 58 combos

    (Bluffs) A2s-A5s, K6s-K9s, Q8s-Q9s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s - 56 combos.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  32. #32
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cobra_1878 View Post
    Villain - 33/29. ATS 90% from BU, FT3B after stealing 57%.


    ATS 90% - Range: 22+(78), A2s+(48), K2s+(44), Q2s+(40), J2s+(36), T2s+(32)

    92s+(28), 82s+(24), 72s+(20), 62s+(16), 52s+(12), 42s+(8), 32s(4), A2o+(192)

    K2o+(176), Q2o+(160), J2o+(144), T4o+(96), 94o+(80), 84o+(64), 74o+(48),

    63o+(48), 52o+(48), 42o+(32), 32o(16) - 1494 combos


    Folding 57% - Folding Range: K2s-K7s(24), Q2s-Q7s(24), J2s-J7s(24),

    T2s-T6s(20), 92s-96s(20), 82-86s(20), 72s-75s(16), 62s-64s(12), 52s-53s(8)

    42s+(8), 32s(4), K2o-K8o(112), Q2o-Q8o(112), J2o-J8o(112),

    T4o-T7o(64), 94o-97o(64), 84o-86o(48), 74o-75o(32), 63o-64o(32), 52o+(48),

    42o+(32), 32o(16) - 852 combos.


    852/1494 = 57%


    Villain is continuing w/ something like - 22+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s,

    A2o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T8o+, 98o, 87o, 76o, 65o.


    3bet range should be merged - value heavy. 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, JTs, ATo+, KJo+.

    How does this look guys? It almost seems silly to suggest we could 3bet hands like QJs and KJo for value but I feel like villain is continuing so wide that we crush him with most broadways. Could we 3bet even wider?
    Just remember that your pre-flop equity against his range doesn't tell the whole story when it comes to the EV of 3-betting.
  33. #33
    ***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (Poker Stars)
    €10.00 EUR NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, August 30, 08:28:29 ET 2015
    Table Lederle (Real Money)
    Seat 6 is the button
    Seat 1: Player1 ( €10.14 EUR ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 17, 3B: 0, AF: 5.0, Hands: 23
    Seat 2: Player2 ( €9.85 EUR ) - VPIP: 10, PFR: 5, 3B: 0, AF: 0.3, Hands: 100
    Seat 4: Player4 ( €10.00 EUR ) - VPIP: 48, PFR: 40, 3B: 28, AF: 3.8, Hands: 163
    Seat 5: Player5 ( €10.84 EUR ) - VPIP: 50, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 1.0, Hands: 24
    Seat 6: Hero ( €25.55 EUR ) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 23, 3B: 8, AF: 2.4, Hands: 2442
    Player1 posts small blind [€0.05 EUR].
    Player2 posts big blind [€0.10 EUR].
    ** Dealing down cards **
    Dealt to Hero [ 6d Kc ]
    Player4 folds
    Player5 folds
    Hero raises [€0.20 EUR]
    Player1 folds
    Player2 calls [€0.10 EUR]
    ** Dealing Flop ** [ 4h, Qs, 9h ]
    Player2 checks
    Hero bets [€0.21 EUR]
    Player2 calls [€0.21 EUR]
    ** Dealing Turn ** [ Ks ]
    Player2 checks
    Hero bets [€0.41 EUR]
    Player2 calls [€0.41 EUR]
    ** Dealing River ** [ Js ]
    Player2 checks
    Hero checks
    Player2 shows [Qd, Ah ]
    Hero shows [6d, Kc ]
    Hero wins €1.61 EUR from main pot

    {Edit by spoonitnow for converted HH since he can't post it yet due to post count}

    Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, €0.10 BB (5 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

    SB (€10.14)
    BB (€9.85)
    UTG (€10)
    MP (€10.84)
    Hero (Button) (€25.55)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with 6, K
    2 folds, Hero raises €0.20, 1 fold, BB calls €0.10

    Flop: (€0.45) 4, Q, 9 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets €0.21, BB calls €0.21

    Turn: (€0.87) K (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets €0.41, BB calls €0.41

    River: (€1.69) J (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero checks

    Total pot: €1.69

    Results below:
    Spoiler:

    Hero had 6, K (one pair, Kings).
    BB had Q, A (one pair, Queens).
    Outcome: Hero won €1.61




    i think villain seem nits and his cold call range on big blind like this:AQ-AJ(32),KQ(3*4=12),77->TT(24),T9s,QJs,ATs(12),KJs(3)
    -> total :83 combo
    on flop 4h, Qs, 9h he will continew with this range(I) :77-TT(24),T9s,QJs,KJs(4+4+3=11),KQ(12),AQ(16), AhTh(1)
    -> 64 combo
    -> his fold frequency : 19/83=24%

    with this bet size of hero on flop need 21/66=32% oppoent fold to make this move is profitable
    24<32-> this bluff cbet here is not good

    If we think this opponent fold his bottaim pairs+ gutshot his range continew like this:99-TT(12),T9s,QJs(8),KQ(12),KhJh,AhTh(2),AQ(16)
    total: 50combo-> his fold frequency on this case(II): 33/83=39,7% and we need only 32% fold frequency wiht betsize on flop-> with case(II) is a profitable move bluff on flop
    Last edited by spoonitnow; 08-31-2015 at 12:16 PM.
  34. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    Just remember that your pre-flop equity against his range doesn't tell the whole story when it comes to the EV of 3-betting.
    Missed this somehow - can you talk a little bit more about this please Spoon?
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  35. #35
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by othd13 View Post
    i think villain seem nits and his cold call range on big blind like this:AQ-AJ(32),KQ(3*4=12),77->TT(24),T9s,QJs,ATs(12),KJs(3)
    -> total :83 combo
    on flop 4h, Qs, 9h he will continew with this range(I) :77-TT(24),T9s,QJs,KJs(4+4+3=11),KQ(12),AQ(16), AhTh(1)
    -> 64 combo
    -> his fold frequency : 19/83=24%

    with this bet size of hero on flop need 21/66=32% oppoent fold to make this move is profitable
    24<32-> this bluff cbet here is not good

    If we think this opponent fold his bottaim pairs+ gutshot his range continew like this:99-TT(12),T9s,QJs(8),KQ(12),KhJh,AhTh(2),AQ(16)
    total: 50combo-> his fold frequency on this case(II): 33/83=39,7% and we need only 32% fold frequency wiht betsize on flop-> with case(II) is a profitable move bluff on flop
    A quick look over your work looks about right. Just remember that you can do this type of analysis every single time you're deciding on a bluff, whether it's your hand or a hand that you're analyzing that was posted in the Small Stakes NLHE forum here.
  36. #36
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cobra_1878 View Post
    Missed this somehow - can you talk a little bit more about this please Spoon?
    People just tend to think that EV and equity are the same thing and assume that having an equity advantage translates directly to an EV advantage when it doesn't.

    For an example, suppose I'm 3-betting only for value (ie: a depolarized or "merged" range), and I have 60 percent equity against my opponent's calling range. If I play my range poorly, and he plays his range well, then it can be -EV for me overall.

    There are lots of advantages that can be had in poker, but those advantages really only tell you who will come out on top if both sides play equally well. Position (like equity) is another good example of an advantage that can be squandered if you don't play sufficiently better than your opponent.
  37. #37
    Ah OK, I see what you mean. Yeah, I make that mistake a lot I think (confusing EV and equity)
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  38. #38
    Otherwise TAGG (nit?) BTN has ATS 47% (14/30 times) over 323 hands. Of 8 times when he's faced a 3bet resteal, he has folded all 8.

    MP: 106.5 BB
    CO: 161.5 BB
    BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.56, PFR: 14.33, Hands: 323)
    SB: 53.5 BB
    Hero (BB): 106.5 BB
    UTG: 101 BB

    SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T J

    fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2 BB, fold, Hero raises to 6 BB

    I view a 3bet with JTo as a bluff because he's unlikely to continue with a wide range given his stats. His steal range is probably something like:

    22+ (78 combos)
    A2+ (208 combos)
    K2+ (192 combos)
    Q2s+ (44 combos)
    Any 2 suited cards 8 or higher not counted above (24 combos)
    76s+ (8 combos)
    86s+ (8 combos)
    Q9o, JTo, J9o, T9o (48 combos)

    The above stealing range is 604 combos out of 1326, or 46%. So the percentage of hands is correct. I don't mind suggestions on the actual hands in the range.

    Given his TAGG-nit stats, I think he's only continuing with solid hands like:

    88+ (42 combos)
    AT+ (48 combos)
    A9s+ (8 combos)
    KQ (16 combos)
    KJs (4 combos)

    That would be 108 combos (about 8%).

    Doing Spoon's quick calculation, I bet 6BB into a pot of 3.5BB. So, 6/9.5 = 63.2%. If he folds more often, we're good. If he's continuing only 108 of 604, he's folding close to 84% of the time.

    By the way, I will try to find a hand where I went deeper and then bluffed and post it later.
  39. #39
    OK, the hand I found is semi-bluff turn in position w/ 97s. They don't fold much at 2nl, so I don't bluff much. I'll analyze preflop as is, but I want to look at the turn as if I had 99 instead. I have two reasons for this:

    1. Calling the 3bet preflop with 97s is questionable.
    2. This line/board/villain has been causing me problems with hands like 99 and 88 when I get 3bet preflop and catch high card flops.


    BB is 22/18 over 139 hands with 15% 3bet vs. steal attempts (2/13 opportunities).


    UTG: 56 BB
    CO: 100 BB
    Hero (BTN): 211.5 BB
    SB: 114 BB
    BB: 170.5 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 17.78, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 139)


    SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7 9


    fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BB raises to 5 BB, Hero calls 3 BB


    Flop: (10.5 BB, 2 players) A 2 T
    BB bets 6.5 BB, Hero calls 6.5 BB


    Turn: (23.5 BB, 2 players) K
    BB checks, Hero bets 11 BB


    Preflop. If he does 3bet approximately 15% vs. steals, we're looking for about 200 combos, something like:

    88+ (42 combos)
    A9+ (80 combos)
    A2s+ (32 combos)
    KQ, KJs (20 combos)
    76s+ (24 combos)

    which gives 198 combos or 14.9% of the 1326 possible opening combos. I'll make the note that 97s has only 35% equity against this range, a lot of ground to make up. Fold preflop is better than calling.

    Flop. He cbets 78% (7/9 chances). We don't have his cbet flop after 3bet percentage, because he hadn't been in that situation yet in this sample. His flop aggression frequency is 60% and flop AF = 9.0. After cbetting the flop, I think he could have the following:

    1. Big hands: AA, TT, AT, A2 (24 combos)
    2. PP's: KK, QQ, JJ, 99, 88 (25 combos)
    3. Straight Draws: KQ, KJs, QJs (using all 4 combos of KJs/QJs => 24 combos)
    4. Flush Draws: 9h8h, 8h7h, 7h6h (0 combos, since I have 9h7h)
    5. Ax (67 combos, none of which can be AhXh since the Ah flopped)
    6. 2nd Pair: JTs, T9s (5 combos)


    That's 145 combos, or a bit more than 70% of his opening range. He'll probably just c/f things like 8c7c type hands that totally missed.

    Turn. With his aggression so high, it's hard to image him checking the turn with two pair. With this board, he would probably bet AA and KK right out, too, and certainly TT. So here's my range for him on the turn:

    1. KK, QQ, JJ, 99, 88 (24 combos)
    2. KQ, KJs, QJs (19 combos)
    3. Ax (67 combos)
    4. JTs, T9s (5 combos)


    Admitting that my turn bet is too small, I think he's continuing with:
    1. KK (3 combos)
    2. KQ, KJs, QJs (19 combos)
    3. AK, AQ, AJ (33 combos)


    So he's continuing with 55 of 115 combos, and therefore folding 52.2%.

    Hero's bet is 11 BB into a pot of 23.5 BB. So we take 11/34.5 = 32%.

    If we think of doing this simply as a bluff (with hands like 88 or 99), the raw bluff should be profitable.
  40. #40
    Villain has opened every button for 3 orbits:

    SB: $10.24 (102.4 bb)
    Hero (BB): $17.73 (177.3 bb)
    CO: $7.60 (76 bb)
    BTN: $11.62 (116.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with K 3
    CO folds, BTN raises to $0.25, SB folds, Hero calls $0.15

    His range is very wide, we'll just say the top 50% of hands as an estimate.

    Flop: ($0.55) 4 2 7 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

    He has cbet both of the 2 times I've seen him see a flop, the sample is too small to be particularly useful, but with the somewhat loose preflop stats, I'll give him a wide range of made hands, semibluffs and air, let's go with:

    22+,A2s+,KTs+,K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s ,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

    Turn: ($1.15) 6 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN checks

    When he checks behind, I'll eliminate from his range hands he'd want 3 streets of value for like overpairs and sets, plus decent semibluffing hands like open ended straight draws. That leaves him with marginal top pair hands, smaller pairs and air like bare overcards.

    33,A2s+,KTs+,K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s, A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

    River: ($1.15) J (2 players)

    The river comes an overcard that doesn't improve any drawing hands. Of his range above, I think he'll fold bare overcards and anything else weaker than a pair of 7s, so his calling or raising range is:

    AJs,A7s,KJs,K7s,QJs,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,AJo,A7 o,KJo,QJo,JTo

    and his folding range is:

    33,AQs+,ATs-A8s,A6s-A2s,KQs,KTs,QTs,AQo+,ATo-A8o,A6o-A2o,KQo,KTo,QTo

    That's 214 combos out of 322, or 66% or 2/3. That's a really big percentage - in a vacuum, I could bet twice the pot, risking 2 units to win 3, which would require him to fold 2/3 of the time. It's not necessary to bet anywhere near that much, and I can make a highly profitable much smaller bluff of half the pot:

    Hero bets $0.60
  41. #41
    1/2c pokerstars
    Hero UTG+1 9h8h, villain is MP and has posted the blinds to sit back down at the table

    Folds to hero and raises 4x
    villain calls

    I felt the villain here can be calling wide with postion
    range: 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o, 98o

    Flop Jd Kc Kh

    hero bets 7c into pot 20c
    villain calls

    Range: 22+, A2s+, K7s+, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, A2o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T9o
    318 combos

    Turn Ks Pot 34c
    Hero checks
    Villain checks

    I feel villain bets all K's, J's and pairs so
    Range: Aqs, ATs-A2s, QTs, T9s, AQo, ATo-A2o, QTo, T9o
    180 combos

    River Qd Pot 34c

    Hero bets 16c
    Villain Folds

    Villains calling range: AQs, ATs, QTs, T9s, AQo, ATo, QTo, T9o
    60 Combos

    Villains Folding Range: A9s-A2s, A9o-A2o
    120 combos

    16/50 = .32
    120/180 = .66

    bluff is profitable
  42. #42
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider View Post
    Villain has opened every button for 3 orbits:

    SB: $10.24 (102.4 bb)
    Hero (BB): $17.73 (177.3 bb)
    CO: $7.60 (76 bb)
    BTN: $11.62 (116.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with K 3
    CO folds, BTN raises to $0.25, SB folds, Hero calls $0.15

    His range is very wide, we'll just say the top 50% of hands as an estimate.

    Flop: ($0.55) 4 2 7 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

    He has cbet both of the 2 times I've seen him see a flop, the sample is too small to be particularly useful, but with the somewhat loose preflop stats, I'll give him a wide range of made hands, semibluffs and air, let's go with:

    22+,A2s+,KTs+,K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s ,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

    Turn: ($1.15) 6 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN checks

    When he checks behind, I'll eliminate from his range hands he'd want 3 streets of value for like overpairs and sets, plus decent semibluffing hands like open ended straight draws. That leaves him with marginal top pair hands, smaller pairs and air like bare overcards.

    33,A2s+,KTs+,K7s,QTs+,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,76s, A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

    River: ($1.15) J (2 players)

    The river comes an overcard that doesn't improve any drawing hands. Of his range above, I think he'll fold bare overcards and anything else weaker than a pair of 7s, so his calling or raising range is:

    AJs,A7s,KJs,K7s,QJs,Q7s,JTs,J7s,T7s,97s,87s,AJo,A7 o,KJo,QJo,JTo

    and his folding range is:

    33,AQs+,ATs-A8s,A6s-A2s,KQs,KTs,QTs,AQo+,ATo-A8o,A6o-A2o,KQo,KTo,QTo

    That's 214 combos out of 322, or 66% or 2/3. That's a really big percentage - in a vacuum, I could bet twice the pot, risking 2 units to win 3, which would require him to fold 2/3 of the time. It's not necessary to bet anywhere near that much, and I can make a highly profitable much smaller bluff of half the pot:

    Hero bets $0.60
    Okay I just want to say good job on your analysis here before I tell you that your flop call was beyond terrible. You should take a few minutes to analyze simply raising the flop.
  43. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    Okay I just want to say good job on your analysis here before I tell you that your flop call was beyond terrible. You should take a few minutes to analyze simply raising the flop.
    Thanks for the feedback, I did the analysis and can see how little of his range can stand a flop raise.

    I looked at sizing and couldn't really make my mind up, instinctively I feel like making it about 10bb looks good, does that sound reasonable and what's your thought process about sizing flop raises?
  44. #44
    Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

    Hero (SB): $2.15 (107.5 bb)
    BB: $2.02 (101 bb)
    UTG: $3.42 (171 bb)
    MP: $1.39 (69.5 bb)
    CO: $3.16 (158 bb)
    BTN: $7.66 (383 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with T A
    3 folds, BTN raises to $0.06, Hero raises to $0.18, 2 folds

    Results: $0.14 pot
    Hero mucked T A and won $0.14 ($0.08 net)



    ST 35%

    Opening Range: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o = 35%
    Villain Defending Range: 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,ATo+, KTo+,QTo+,JTo = 23%

    Therefore folding % = 1 - (23/35) = 34%

    Risk / Reward = 8,5BB / 13BB = 65%

    As a bluff this play wouldn't be advisable but I think A10s is strong enough to resteal vs BU in SB.

    Question: Any tips on giving Villain a specific defending range against a 3 bet or resteal as in this example?
    The range above was just guessing.
    Last edited by ErnieohneBert; 09-28-2015 at 08:09 AM.
  45. #45
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ErnieohneBert View Post
    Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

    Hero (SB): $2.15 (107.5 bb)
    BB: $2.02 (101 bb)
    UTG: $3.42 (171 bb)
    MP: $1.39 (69.5 bb)
    CO: $3.16 (158 bb)
    BTN: $7.66 (383 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with T A
    3 folds, BTN raises to $0.06, Hero raises to $0.18, 2 folds

    Results: $0.14 pot
    Hero mucked T A and won $0.14 ($0.08 net)



    ST 35%

    Opening Range: 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q5s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,A2o +,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o = 35%
    Villain Defending Range: 22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,98s,87s,76s,65s,ATo+, KTo+,QTo+,JTo = 23%

    Therefore folding % = 1 - (23/35) = 34%

    Risk / Reward = 8,5BB / 13BB = 65%

    As a bluff this play wouldn't be advisable but I think A10s is strong enough to resteal vs BU in SB.

    Question: Any tips on giving Villain a specific defending range against a 3 bet or resteal as in this example?
    The range above was just guessing.
    To answer your question, we actually get into that (and general techniques for learning about ranges in different situations for different opponents) throughout this series.
  46. #46
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider View Post
    Thanks for the feedback, I did the analysis and can see how little of his range can stand a flop raise.

    I looked at sizing and couldn't really make my mind up, instinctively I feel like making it about 10bb looks good, does that sound reasonable and what's your thought process about sizing flop raises?
    This can be a somewhat complicated topic (as all bet sizing topics can be), but the basic idea is that you want to think about the odds you're giving him to call and if those odds actually matter (ie: if he's folding a lot regardless of bet sizes).

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