NFD in 3bet flop against nit

Nit is running 14/11 afq 50 with 75% fold to 3bet ratio and is pretty straightforward postflop. His continuing range preflop probably includes TT+, AQ+. Postflop he's likely to be flatting AQ and possibly AK & TT+. What's our line having bricked the turn here? We're certainly behind but have outs to the nuts & we will give up the pot every time we check. Villain has less than pot behind. Shove or c/f?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($7.90)
CO ($8.35)
Button ($10.75)
Hero (SB) ($16.65)
BB ($29.35)
UTG ($2.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, J
2 folds, CO bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.20, 1 fold, CO calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.50) 8, Q, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.80, CO calls $1.80

Turn: ($6.10) 6 (2 players)
Hero ??? (Villain has 5.35 behind)

You're screwed unless you hit your flush. AQ, QQ, AK, Etc all beat you and like you said that's his most likely range pre. So check and hope he checks back. Betting is a waste because there's no fold equity against a nit that finally hit something. Nits need to make their profit from these rare hands, so often they won't let them go to pressure.

I agree with Flying. You could have also priced your draw better on the flop. Assuming your Aces are outs (and they might not be) you've got like 12 outs to improve. something like 25% on the next card. If you 1/2 pot bet the flop your getting 3-1. Doesn't seem like a big deal but over thousands of hands those blinds add up. $1.25 or $1.80 has the same effect plus if your aces aren't outs your only like 20%. So I would c-bet a little thinner.

I might be a little nitty but I don't get 3 bet PF. It should small-medium pairs to fold, but that's about the only real reason I can see. He continues with AK and usually AQ? Folds weaker aces and some offsuite broadway. Why don't we try to keep his range wide?

3b is optional, but you have a reason for 3betting right? is it cos he has a huge fold to 3b? or? what's his flop range? his fold to cbet?

anyway, without more info i think your cbet is way too big. In fact, you think he's calling you with his entire pre-flop range, and his pre-flop range beats you... so?

as played you should note that villain checks turn behind a lot

Originally Posted by daven

3b is optional, but you have a reason for 3betting right? is it cos he has a huge fold to 3b? or? what's his flop range? his fold to cbet?

anyway, without more info i think your cbet is way too big. In fact, you think he's calling you with his entire pre-flop range, and his pre-flop range beats you... so?

as played you should note that villain checks turn behind a lot

Yeah as stated in op villain folds to 75% of 3bets & I was mainly planning to take it down preflop.

You guys really think 1/2 pot cbet size is optimal? I've been c-betting around 2/3 - 3/4 pot the whole session, wouldn't it be rather odd to cbet half? I guess at these levels that'd be often overlooked but I can't help but think I'd be prone to a shove and if so, would we stack off on this flop?

Originally Posted by deucesomething

You guys really think 1/2 pot cbet size is optimal? I've been c-betting around 2/3 - 3/4 pot the whole session, wouldn't it be rather odd to cbet half? I guess at these levels that'd be often overlooked but I can't help but think I'd be prone to a shove and if so, would we stack off on this flop?

c-bet sizing in 3b flops is different. We talked about it in irc the other day, and somewhere in this thread perhaps?
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...eg-180035.html

Originally Posted by deucesomething

Yeah as stated in op villain folds to 75% of 3bets & I was mainly planning to take it down preflop.

You guys really think 1/2 pot cbet size is optimal? I've been c-betting around 2/3 - 3/4 pot the whole session, wouldn't it be rather odd to cbet half? I guess at these levels that'd be often overlooked but I can't help but think I'd be prone to a shove and if so, would we stack off on this flop?

Sorry, I didn't read that part. Just going to throw out an idea here, but if we're only continuing strongly if we flop better than top pair, isn't our hand mostly a steal? If we're going to be 3 bet stealing why aren't we doing it more with hands like SC's or something that is well disguised if we hit? I don't think AJs has much value after he flats besides FD's and 2 pair+, so I'd rather be 3 betting 87s here. Anyways, this was just something I thought of and would appreciate it if someone else looked over my reasoning here. 3 bet was fine because any way we get to the flop we'll be OOP so we might as well try to take it down pre..

It is a mistake to 3 bet AJs against this player. AJs has a lot of value in calling since this player will only continue to a 3 bet when he has you beat. You want to 3 bet a lot as a bluff and tighten your value 3 bet range against him (AK KK+) Id even flat QQ against SUPER nitty people. 3 bet nits as a bluff more often though with stuff like smaller suited aces, suited Kings, SC's and so forth.

Against a looser player who will splash around in 3 bet pots with marginal hands (hands that AJs smokes) you can place stuff like TT-QQ, AJ+ into your value 3 bet range. Your bluffing range will stay roughly the same against this player but you'll want to 3bet less as a bluff and more for value.

BTW your c bet size is fine here, I would bet around this much if I had AA or KK and this flop came down. On boards that are not as draw heavy tho I think it is just fine to 1/2 pot it in a 3 bet pot.

Also, if you choose to bet the turn I think it needs to be a shove. But it really does not look like you have a lot of FE here.

This is the best i could locate

The Problems with a Polarized Range- by Matthew Janda

This is something i've never really thought about, ty fnord for pointing it out. Now on to looking for pros and cons of merged ranges haha

edit: found one! The 2+2 Forum Archives: Theory- Merging Your Range

Thanks JK