Moving Up and YOU

I'm seeing more and more of these threads lately which, to me, is a great sign. When someone is looking to move up they typically are winning! There are many questions you should ask yourself when determining whether or not to take a shot at the next level:

1. Am I winning money at my current stakes?

This seems relatively obvious but if you are not winning money at your current stakes there is absolutely no way you should move up. The fact that people at 5nl "chase and always hit their draws" is not a reason to go play 25nl. If you cannot beat players at lower stakes there is no reason to think you can beat them at higher levels.

Being a winning player would typically mean that over a large sample of hands (20k+ hands) you have proven to be a profitable poker player. A solid winrate at microstakes poker would be earning 1 buy-in every 2,000 hands. This would be referred to as earning 5bb/100, 2.5BB/100, or 2.5ptbb/100. Winning more than this is also common, however, winning any less than this should be cause for concern.

2. Why I am a winning player?

If you cannot answer this question, chances are you are not ready for the next level. The number one reason why a player makes money is because he or she exploits his opponents tendencies by making adjustments. A lot of these are subconscious and just ingrained into our typical thought processes. However, just because you have read a PF chart and heard something about continuation betting does not mean you understand why you make money. As you progress through levels your opponents will make less mistakes and the ones they do make will not be as exploitable. Therefore, understanding how to adjust and the reasons for doing so is critical.

3. Am I properly bankrolled for a full shot at the next level?

A "full shot" is much different than a typical shot, or attempt to move to the next level. A full shot would be a cushion of 10+ buyins that you are willing to lose before moving back down to your current stake. In general a player should move down when they only have 30 buy-ins for the lower of the two levels.

Take the move from 5nl to 10nl for an example. 30 buy-ins for 5nl would be $150, therefore to take a full shot at 10nl a player would need a $250 bankroll and MUST move down when their roll reaches $150. There is a TON of variance in moving up. For one reason or another you will find yourself making plays you never made at lower levels and it will cause fluctuations in your winrate. Also, your opponents will be better, which means your mistakes will be magnified compared to lower levels, which, one again, will affect your winrate.

Giving yourself this big of a cushion is designed to take a lot of the pressure off of shot-taking and to allow for some typical variance.

4. Am I prepared to move down if I lose?

This is the point in time where your shot has not gone well, whether it is variance or poor play I guarantee that you will attribute it to running bad. This thinking is fine as long as you move down. Chances are you did not run well but that you also played poorly. As long as move back to the lower of the two stakes you are doing better than 90% of poker players.

This can be a humbling experience, as most new players will sky-rocket through the microstakes games, making it to $25 or $50nl fairly quickly. After a shot failed take time to review HH's, discuss your observations with other players, and get back to the grind! You will eventually beat the higher limits; however, it is impossible to do so if you bust your entire account. Throw your ego out the window and move on.

The thing that clicked the most for me in this post was 1 buyin every 2000 hands... sometimes i have 2-3 hour sessions in 7 tables where I'm only up 1 buyin and I'm not satisfied. I think I'll excersise a little more patience.

But 30 buyins for next stakes now? Man have things changed! It used to be 10 buyins 2 years ago! (Most people on this site moved to 25NL at $200-250)

Yeah, short term results can skew your expectations. You play 300 hands and win 3 buyins and think thats pretty good, whereas its like 10x longterm winnings expectations (of a good 5ptbb/100 winrate). If you play 500 hands per session your winrate is really 1 buyin every 2-4 sessions averaged out.

Def a 5 spader.

Great Post yet again Spendaa.

1.I am able to answer those questions above.
2.I am able to move up to 50NL soon.
3.I am a nit,and i need to increase my aggression and level of thinking before steppping up before i get bullied on the low stakes.

Should i stay at 25NL and make adjustments(which i am atm) or should i move up?

Does level of aggressiveness increase with stakes?

Originally Posted by Revolver123

But 30 buyins for next stakes now? Man have things changed! It used to be 10 buyins 2 years ago! (Most people on this site moved to 25NL at $200-250)

Thanks frist

I agree with the 10+ buy-in cushion. 10 buy-in downswings happen (at 6max anyway) and I don't like to drop below 20 buy-ins. So, I agree with the 30 buy-in moving up.

However, if you're going to have people move down at 30 buy-ins for the low stake (aka 15 BI for the higher stake), why not take a shot with 25BI, since you can lose 10 and still be rolled for the lower stake?

Ultimately this is nit-picking. You (the player) needs to make sure they're mentally comfortable with whatever amount of money they are risking.

Originally Posted by hangchiong

Should i stay at 25NL and make adjustments(which i am atm) or should i move up?

Does level of aggressiveness increase with stakes?

when i decide to make adjustments I often move down in stakes - that's because these adjustments could result in my game getting worse, not better, until i get them right.
Aggressiveness increases a little with stakes - but even more importantly, the intelligence (e.g. appropriate spots) of such aggression increases.

Also, you can have a wide variety of your typical stakes.

I typically play 3 stakes at the same time. The middle one is what I would tell people I'm playing, the upper-one I bumhunt (only play fish) and the lower stake I play when either I'm tilting, unfocused, or looking to work on new theories.

It's quite alright to do this, I try not to mix it up too much, as in I'll never run all 3 stakes at the same time because it can be quite confusing. However, it's not too difficult to grind two different levels at the same time.

5 spades, Spenda. Please add this to the digest.

And about bumhunting (disregard connotations, bigred), what would you recommend here? I started bumhunting $25NL one table at a time when I had a $500 BR at $10NL. My winnings here made up about $100 of the remaining $150 I felt I needed to "officially" move up to $25NL, which I now play regularly. I feel like I waited too long to take small shots at $25NL, and wonder if I should try a little earlier with $50NL. Is 20 BI a good place to start?

More about bumhunting:

Are you datamining the tables to find the fish or just using table stats given by the sites or watching the tables?

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Being a winning player would typically mean that over a large sample of hands (20k+ hands) you have proven to be a profitable poker player. A solid winrate at microstakes poker would be earning 1 buy-in every 2,000 hands. This would be referred to as earning 5bb/100, 2.5BB/100, or 2.5ptbb/100. Winning more than this is also common, however, winning any less than this should be cause for concern.

New to this site, not necessarily new to poker, can you tell me on this site, or in general what the difference is between bb/100, BB/100, and ptbb/100? Thanks.

I am assuming BB/100 means Big Bets/100, as in at .01/.02 NL, this would be BB= .04 cents. bb/100 means bib blind? And the third I have never seen before.

nice post. A++

ptbb/100 is synonymous with BB/100

Technically it shouldn't be written as ptbb/100 as everyone generally accepts BB=big bet and bb=big blind,

So ptbb/100 doesn't really make much sense, it should be ptBB/100, or simply BB/100 !

Edit: oh I see spendas written ptbb/100 in which case I'm obviously wrong!

Anyway : -

bb=big blind,
BB=big bet (from limit where the big bet, was two big blinds)
ptbb/100 = poker tracker big bets per one hundred hands.

Great post spenda. This should be in the digest IMO.

Originally Posted by settecba

Great post spenda. This should be in the digest IMO.

Definitely. 5 spades. This is very useful information for anyone working their way up.

Bump...just because it should be bumped, YO.

Great post man. One question: I know the importance of bankroll management and the use of the 30 buy in rule, but how does it apply if you multitable? If I have 8 tables open, does that mean I need 8x30 buy ins?

Originally Posted by dragntail

If I have 8 tables open, does that mean I need 8x30 buy ins?

From probability's point of view, there's no difference whether you play eight sessions with one table or one session with eight tables. Multitabling doesn't increase your volatility. So you still only need 30BIs.

Originally Posted by dragntail

Great post man. One question: I know the importance of bankroll management and the use of the 30 buy in rule, but how does it apply if you multitable? If I have 8 tables open, does that mean I need 8x30 buy ins?

I think even the most conservative players on here would struggle to tell you that you'd need to make $6,000 at $10 nl to move up to $25nl. 30 buyins is 30 buyins no matter how many tables you run.

very very very good post!

Originally Posted by Fielmann

Originally Posted by dragntail

If I have 8 tables open, does that mean I need 8x30 buy ins?

From probability's point of view, there's no difference whether you play eight sessions with one table or one session with eight tables. Multitabling doesn't increase your volatility. So you still only need 30BIs.

This. However, you must factor in the likelihood of your winrate dropping as the number of tables you play increase. If you are playing BE poker with 2 tables, you are very likely to play a losing game with 10 tables open. So, if that's the case you obviously need to either drop stakes or drop tables. If you play a very high variance game to begin with, adding tables is likely to increase that variance, and therefore you may want a few more buyins. However, 30 buyins is plenty assuming you have the discipline to drop down when needed, along with doing the necessary things to improve your game also.

very educational post
Thanks

Can you say a little about the psychology of the player when moving up? Whenever I try to move up, it seems to me that I am getting more bad beats and not able to win coin flips. Does this happen to everyone when moving up?

P.S. Parasurma's words encouraged me to take a shot:

"this is true, but our goal is not to make the most money given our current skill set but to advance our skill set so as to make the most money"

Well said.

Great post.

I just have a few questions, some re abbreviations and some re things ppl have said.

1) bigspenda says:

A solid winrate at microstakes poker would be earning 1 buy-in every 2,000 hands.

So, taking this literally, does this mean that in the $0.01/$0.02 stake games on PokerStars where the minimum buy-in is $1 (the ones I am currently playing) for every 2000 hands I play, I should only be winning $1 back? Or have I totally misunderstood?

2) What's a PF chart and continuation betting?

3) Do terms like 5nl, and 10nl mean the maximum buy-in is $5 or $10? Or does it mean that the stakes are $0.05/$0.10?

4) I know it might be obvious, but what is a BB or Big Bet? Is it a bet at more than 50% of your bankroll?

5) What does BI mean?

6) What is BE poker?

Thanks.

1) a buyin is 100 big blinds for whatever level you are at. at $.01/.02, one buyin is equal to 100*.02 = $2

2)A PF chart is a Pre-Flop chart, and is something fish use to determine what starting hands they should play. For continuation betting, visit the ftr pokerdictionary or search the beginner's digest

3) Xnl is used when the big blind is x/100. So 2nl is 1cent/2cent, 10nl is 5c/10c etc.

4) a Big Bet is a poker trackerlimitholdem term that is equal to twice the big blind.

5)BI = Buy-in

6) BE poker is Break Even poker

Originally Posted by Extremophile

Can you say a little about the psychology of the player when moving up? Whenever I try to move up, it seems to me that I am getting more bad beats and not able to win coin flips. Does this happen to everyone when moving up?

Speaking from experience (I wrote something similar to your post a while back, and got resoundingly smacked down for the sentiment), I will say two things:

1) I had that experience when moving from 2NL to 5NL. I bounced back and forth between 2NL and 5NL for a while. I had the *opposite* experience moving up to 10NL, and then to 25NL.

2) Moving up almost always brings *some* change, because every *day* brings some change, and the day you move up you are probably paying a lot more attention to it. But until you have a few thousand hands in the category, any judgement is more likely to be influenced by everyday variance than genuine difference in play.

Originally Posted by JKDS

1) a buyin is 100 big blinds for whatever level you are at. at $.01/.02, one buyin is equal to 100*.02 = $2

So the answer then, is that you should be earning $2 back per 2000 hands?

Thanks for the rest.

good post

i am currently playing 5nl and i use 100 buy ins at 6max cash game
move down when down to 85 buy in

and 5nl is considerably better later

Originally Posted by 3cent

good post

i am currently playing 5nl and i use 100 buy ins at 6max cash game
move down when down to 85 buy in

and 5nl is considerably better later

If you're playing to pay the bills at 200nl, I can see a 100 BI rule to keep the pressure off but at 5nl you're wasting your time dude. Move up, christ you're almost rolled for 25nl.

1. nope
2. I'm not so i don't have to answer this one
3. heck no, i have to keep depositing to stay rolled for 2nl
4. down to where...play money...

Guess i'm stuck at 2nl for another 20k hands...
cause i still suck!!

Great info guys!

Originally Posted by OhioRounder

If you're playing to pay the bills at 200nl, I can see a 100 BI rule to keep the pressure off but at 5nl you're wasting your time dude. Move up, christ you're almost rolled for 25nl.

I'm not sure he's using the terms in the way you think he is...

sorry for the stupid fish question, but how should i take in consideration the bankroll management next to the multitabling? lets say i play nl1, 0,80 cent buy in and i have a mini 24$ bankroll for this. generally speaking this would be the limit i could play for that bankroll, BUT - should this apply just for 1 table? or I can make several buyins and start grinding up like that. I've experienced a lot in online play and as far as i've seen, it's different playing your whole bankroll at multitabling than playing half of your bankroll at one table. and anyways, if i multitable 12 tables of 0,80cent should I set up my bankroll for a 9,4$ buy in, like ~280$? thanks.

Originally Posted by crazydeuce

sorry for the stupid fish question, but how should i take in consideration the bankroll management next to the multitabling? lets say i play nl1, 0,80 cent buy in and i have a mini 24$ bankroll for this. generally speaking this would be the limit i could play for that bankroll, BUT - should this apply just for 1 table? or I can make several buyins and start grinding up like that. I've experienced a lot in online play and as far as i've seen, it's different playing your whole bankroll at multitabling than playing half of your bankroll at one table. and anyways, if i multitable 12 tables of 0,80cent should I set up my bankroll for a 9,4$ buy in, like ~280$? thanks.

No question is ever poor. Better to ask than get it wrong. I'm pretty new to the forums but my understanding of bank roll management is as follows.

The reason the recommendation is to have 20 times the limit as your bankroll is "Law of large numbers". You want to reduce variance.

Think of it like a coin toss. You expect heads 50% & tails 50%. If you flip the coin once, you can only get a head or a tail. So for a poker game, think you can double up, or bust out.

Now flip it 100 times & you will get something close to 50% heads, 50% tails. The difference from 50/50 is "variance". If you keep flipping the value will always tend towards 50/50 in the long run.

So, if you put your entire roll on a single table, you have only the outcome of that table. It could be you bust out, or you might double up.

Now split the bankroll into 20 different tables & you can see that *on average* if you are a profitable player, you should make a slight gain instead of the single table win or lose outcome. This is why they recommend your results after 20,000 hands. That evens out variance to a more accurate result.

And to repeat the comment above. Playing one table everyday for 1 hour each for 8 days is exactly the same (mathematically) as playin simultaneous 8 tables (multitabling) for 1 hour on 1 day.

The advice on bankroll is literally spend 5% of your bankroll at any one table (or in other words have a bankroll that is 20 times the max buy-in limit).

You can play one table, 2 or 20 tables & the only thing that will change is your attention to each table. The maths won't change. So moving from $2nl to $5nl is done when you have $100 + in your bankroll (20 x $5). So if you lost at the higher limit, you should move down to $2 again when you go under $100. Anything over the $100 is the buffer you use to 'play in that level'.