Making -ve EV plays

-ve EV plays are bad but are there some that are unavoidable or is that just crazytalk or am I just being stupid and looking at things in a really stupid way or am I just being stupid full stop. *edit* i suppose that there should really be a question mark on the end of that sentence.

Example:
$0.1/0.2nlhe


Hero($1.25) has JcJs and is OOP against LAG opponent($2.50)

Hero bet 0.06and was called by villain only

flop comes 2h7hKs

Hero makes it 0.30 to go and is called, puts opponent on a king, possibly AK maybe KQ as villain is quite a loose caller.

turn comes 4h

Hero checks, villain checks

river comes Jd

Hero bets 0.35 and villain shoves, Hero calls.

Okay so villain flips AhQh and takes down the pot. This is a -EV play right? Or am I thinking about this in the wrong way, should I consider the opponents range in my calculation and not just the particular hand that he had on show down? Intuitively always felting Jacks when you hit your set seems +EV to me even if not completely optimal. Obviously another heart on the board and I would have dropped my hand without even thinking about it. Am I making a noob error?


Thanks for the advice!

I'm not fond of hh's that don't get converted first off, but what ever. The first thing I see as -EV is you put villain on two possible hands. Is that really the only range you think he could have? If so then NOTHING after that matters because you are a mile behind his range YOU put him on after the flop and you don't improve so why would you ever bet then call a shove for gods sake. Villains range only gets tighter as you move through the streets correct? We don't suddenly change his range to a bluff because we got bored! You also know it's not a bluff if you call right!

Now you hit on the major part in your after question. You always put him on a range and not on specific hands until you get the crystal ball. And you continue to calculate his range as you move through the streets of action. You NEVER look at the results of the hand to determine if you play was +/-EV. Often times you'll run in to the top of villains range but if you have calculated his range correctly the same play may be +EV in that you'll win X% of the time against that range.

As far as are you making a noob error: Well yes and no. Yes in the specific no in that you're asking questions and trying to learn from it. Most noobs don't have anything to learn if you know what I mean. Keep posting hands (preferably after running them through a hand converter) and asking questions!

Welcome by the way!

Poker Hand History HH Converter | Hand History Converter we convert our hands in these parts sir!

Thanks, that clears a few things up for me,

What I meant was that I had narrowed his range to KQ or AK after the call on the flop and discounted the possibility that he was drawing to the flush after his turn check although that was clearly a mistake and probably a ploy to get me to felt everything. He was a loose player so I thought that his range could have easily missed the flop so I bet because I thought I had a reasonable chance of being ahead of him. After he called my flop bet though I came to the conclusion that he would be an idiot to draw to a flush for that price as he did not have the odds so he must have a king so on the turn I checked, he checked back so I reasoned that he was scared of me check raising a flush. When I hit the Jack on the river I figured I had his hand beat as I thought he would have played KK stronger and couldn't have been drawing to a flush so I put him on AK or KQ as mentioned and bet out.


Sorry for not converting the hand. I also realise that I should probably have included this reasoning in my original post.

Firstly, for a 2NL game your giving your guy way to much credit re the flop call. His range is still incredibly wide. A LAG probably raises any K and his kicker could easily be much worse than a Q.
Middle pairs and flush draws are still in his range and he has position on you so could even have just floated with air. Any ace is also possible.

Your river Jack is hard to get away from but his river bet is almost never a bluff.

EV is calculated using your equity against his RANGE so if you aren't putting a flush in his range then this would be +EV. Obviously you were wrong though so just learn from the error in judgement re his flop range.

I don't think that there are some completely unavoidable -EV plays, but there are some situations where you might decide to make a slightly -EV play preflop in exchange for the possibility of a much bigger +EV play post flop.
An example would be where you're on the button w/67 and decide to call an UTG preflop raise of 3bb when no-one else has entered the pot and you've seen him get KK cracked. It's -EV because the 67 is way behind the normal UTG PFR range, but your read tells you that if you hit the flush or straight postflop then you've got a good chance of stacking him which would be a big +EV.

These moves mostly depend on your reads and your postflop ability, which should be much better than your opponent's ability if you're deciding to make a move like this. Normally you want to avoid these types of fancy plays at 2nl. Just play ABC poker and value bet the crap out of someone who can't release TPTK, or in your case: second set with a completed flush showing.

As for the hand: You want to try to give him a range based on his previous actions and narrow it down street by street.

PF - If the villain's as loose a caller as you suggest then there are a lot more hands in his range than just AK or KQ. Pre his range is probably more like 55 - TT (maybe 22+ if he's that loose), 67s+, 78o+, Ax, and most broadways that you don't have blockers on. You'd think that he'd 3bet pre with QQ+.

OTF - if I did the math correctly the pot was about $0.15 and you overbet it to $0.30? If that's the case then the vilain made a really bad call against the odds for his NFD. He was only getting a bit over 4:1 implied and 2.5:1 expressed. I'd make a note about this tendency and remember to try to not pay off their implied odds when the villain's betting patterns are saying that they completed the flush. The other side of that coin is that a lot of players are becoming suspicious of large bets such as overbets and shoves, which could have been the trigger to get him to draw against the odds.

OTT - The flop c-bet has become so common that a lot of players are floating to the turn to see how the aggressor continues, because it's common for a flopped set to step on the gas on the turn and a missed flop to give up. Your check signals that your hand is weak, that the flop was a missed c-bet and/or you want to see a cheap showdown. All of which makes your river bet look like a bluff.