KQo 2NL Analysis

Villain is 59/18 over 64 hands, so his range is as wide as they come. When he raises preflop, it's usually 4xBB or 5xBB.


Button ($1.57)
SB ($5.02)
BB ($5.11)
UTG ($4.66)
UTG+1 ($1.97)
MP1 ($0.67)
MP2 ($4.94)
Hero (MP3) ($1.56)
CO ($2.56)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K, Q
UTG bets $0.10, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.10, 4 folds
Despite such a high VPIP, his PFR is only 18, so I imagine his PFR range includes all pairs, all broadway cards and perhaps one or two extra like ATs, T9s etc.

Flop: ($0.23) 8, K, A (2 players)
UTG bets $0.12, Hero calls $0.12
It's a fairly standard cbet amount and something I'd seen him do a few times before after a preflop raise. I'm not sure his range would change too dramatically, if at all, given his cbet is standard and only just half pot. It certainly hits a lot of his range. I would say monster hands like AA, KK and 88 can safely be dismissed though. In hindsight, raising this flop may have been a good idea, given that Ace-high flops tend to prompt a c-bet a lot of the time anyway.


Turn: ($0.47) 4 (2 players)
UTG checks
A lot of 2NL players seem to play a fit-or-fold strategy post-flop, and this is what his turn check suggests to me. I'm thinking likely a pocket pair that hasn't hit or one of those borderline starting hands like T9. A straight or flush draw is also possible.


How's my thinking?

Is there anything glaring in this (rather brief) hand analysis that I've missed or should concentrate more on?


All feedback appreciated.

raising the flop with your reasoning is pretty bad. just because you believe that he'll be cbetting a lot here doesn't mean that we have to turn our hand with a lot of showdown value into a bluff (well, we will probably also get value from worse kings and draws maybe some 8x/pp's, but i'm assuming your talking about raising the flop mainly to get him to fold). his range isn't really as wide as they come, but you pointed that out in your preflop analysis. I'm not sure why you dismiss sets from his range on the flop. i think you need to add Kx and some of the smaller Ax to his checking range on the turn (i think by the borderline starting hands you were referred to you meant his air with little equity that just cbet and checked turn).

Thanks Imthenewfish. I dismissed sets from his range as I felt his c-bet would have been larger - 2/3 or pot sized if he'd hit. A silly assumption?

I WAS talking about raising the flop for value. I suppose I was concentrating too much on getting value from hands like you mentioned and less on the showdown value of the hand. Hmm.

just fold pre with 4 ppl to act behind. I know we are probably infront of his range etc, but there are still 4 ppl to act and I doubt you are getting that much vallue unless you have him dominated ie he has KT or something.

also if he has a pair I don't think he's gunna c/c 3 streets with overcard flops.

as played i'd just bet turn fairly small

raisng the flop would be terrible.

Originally Posted by Shifter

I WAS talking about bluffing for value on the flop

wat?

I WAS talking about bluffing for value on the flop.

Uhhh....disregard my brainfart. Fixed.

lolpwnt - could you elaborate on why raising the flop would be terrible?

Originally Posted by Shifter

Uhhh....disregard my brainfart. Fixed.

lolpwnt - could you elaborate on why raising the flop would be terrible?

you'll just be building the pot with a marginal hand that has showdown value anyway. Given the amount of times he'll fold worse and only call with better excluding some fd's/straight draws it a lot better just to call the flop.

also figure in that he may 3bet semi bluff with some of those draws and we hate life.

Because you don't know if it's for a bluff or for value for starters!

All you do is confuse yourself where you are in the hand.

Okay, thanks. A few things to ponder, certainly.

Smith - It would have been for value, as I was thinking of causing him to fold with worse hands - perhaps weaker kings/8x or other, as Imthenewfew mentioned.

Originally Posted by Shifter

Okay, thanks. A few things to ponder, certainly.

Smith - It would have been for value, as I was thinking of causing him to fold with worse hands - perhaps weaker kings/8x or other, as Imthenewfew mentioned.

What you really end up doing a lot is folding out hands that you beat, and keeping in hands that beat you. You don't gain any "value" by folding out worse hands. Your goal here is to see where you are at by his turn actions, and get to showdown. Otherwise 72o would = the same hand. I don't see how you can raise the flop for value.

You also need a plan for situations. After he checks you have to figure out why he is checking, and then proceed. How many streets of value do you want to get? On what streets?

If he called the flop, what would you do on that turn?

As played I bet turn, check back most rivers. He is either giving up, has a weak A, or a worst hand that can convince himself to call a turn bet.

i thought you meant you wanted to raise the flop as a bluff and not value, sorry. if you raise the flop for value, your intention is to get weaker kings/8x to call (not saying raising for value is a good idea either). sorry for the confusion about everything. it just seems like the opposite of what i'm saying is being quoted lol

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

if you raise the flop for value, your intention is to get weaker kings/8x to call (not saying raising for value is a good idea either).

Okay, so just to clarify - if I was the raise the flop for value, it would be because my hand has decent showdown value and I'd want weaker hands to call. I'm starting to see why, in this situation, I'd be more likely to fold out weaker hands with a flop raise and therefore it'd be pointless.


I'm not sure I have the answers for those questions, Smith. Going to have to think on it. Thanks for the answers, all.

I'd probably fold pre, I never want a marginal hand against a UTG raiser. Your K-Q is probably dominated by A-K, Q-Q or A-Q or you're in a coinflip. But then, K-Q is one of those hands we always want to play (me included). lol

59/18 VPIP/PFR means that he is raising something good, esp UTG. So his range could probably be A10+, any pair and probably some weird broadway hands like K-J or Q-J.

I like the call on the flop and I disagree with raising. You could be in a way ahead/way behind situation in this spot and keeping the pot small is very important. Think about this, QQ/JJ/10-10/9-9/K-J/K-10 could be played this way as well and you are crushing these hands-leaving them with 2 outs to improve. Raising would cause these hands to fold.

Now if you are up against Ax, 8-8, K-K, A-K; you are crushed and if you are up against J-10hearts, you're in a coinflip and you don't want to play big pots with mid-pair. Besides, you do have showdown value.

At the turn I would check behind- I'll do this for two reasons. First- I'd keep the pot small and Second- I'd set up myself to call a reasonable bet on the river if no scare cards fall or go for a thin value bet (dependent on read) esp if the draws don't get there. It's kinda a passive stance but it works for me.

Or another alternative turn play could be betting half the pot because his check looks like he c-bet and gave up on the turn. I could be repping tons of hands like a slowplayed set, flush draws, straight draws or an Ace and could take it away right there or on the river if scare cards come off. However you are risking yourself getting check-raised which would cause you to fold.

It's something I would do if I have a specific read that villain's got a weak A or lower pairs but most of the time, I think it would be more profitable to just check behind and let him make a bluff on the river, or get to the showdown as cheaply as possible by checking back the river if he does check the second time.

Hope this helps!

Thanks, thefishtank - appreciate the insight!

As you said, KQ is one of those hands we always want to play; I should've given his position more consideration before jumping into the hand.