H1) I know everyone else has said it so im not really going to say why but I like a
flat pre. He's leading most turns and if we
don't
fold now we're going to have to
call and
fold on later streets..
H2) Bet
turn bigger, I
don't see
villain as the kind to bet the part of his
range we beat on this
river with this card if we
check to him, 'cos it's a
scare card to his
range so hes swaring at the computer 'bout how he got
rivered again. That being said I
don't really get the point of a
blocking bet here. If we decide that our
range is
behind his
range, we can safely c/f this card because I
don't think he'll be betting worse (if he is, please
tell me). But if we decide that our
range is
ahead of his, we're trying to
extract the most value from his hand (this can still be a b/f amirite?). His
range is missed
FD's,
Tx,
Qx,
sometimes mediumish pocket pairs,
jacks,
J9,
KJ, and sometimes K9, with the occassional slowplayed
set/
overpair, but thats a really tiny part of his
range. I'
m going to italicize every hand that we're beating that continues (not saying that they always will continue), and bold every hand that has us beat that continues (not saying that they always will continue). we block jacks, J9, and KJ. There are 3
combos of jacks left, 12
combos of of J9, and 12
combos of KJ(gonna put these with the hands
straight hands that got there; AQ has 6
combos and KQ has 8
combos). Thats pretty much 38
combos that beat us. There are two other queens, so we take 8 X the number of kickers that we beat to find the
combos of queens that we beat(I'
m going to assume he's calling most bets with Qx here). It's a small
sample size, but I think that he's playing something around Q6s+ and Q9o+. we get value from Q6s and Q8s which is 6
combos-6
combos of Q7o. Q9o is 8
combos, and i think he raises QT sometimes on the
flop or
turn, so we're getting value from 8
combos of Qx. I'
m going to put his
Tx range at T8s+ and T9o+. 3
combos of T8s, 12
combos of T9, 9
combos of JT, 12
combos of KT, and -9
combos of AT. Thats 27
combos of Jx we beat (we
don't really have any idea if he's going to
call a
river bet with these, but i thought i should count some
combos cos he could). 38
combos that beat us, and 38
combos that we beat assuming he's calling us down with 3rd
pair. EZ c/f??